Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 262

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.03.28

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.12696
  • Open: 1.12516
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.12
  • Day’s range: 1.12342 – 1.12612
  • 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR/USD keeps the bearish mood. EUR is under pressure after Mario Draghi’s statements that the key ineterest rates` growth can be postponed further. Right now the key support and resistance levels are 1.12350 and 1.12750. Today the investors will be evaluaing the important economic releases in the US. Open the positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 28.03.2019:

  • – GDP report (US) – 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Unfinished Real Estate Sales Index (EU) – 16:00 (GMT+2:00);
EUR/USD

The price is below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.12350, 1.12000
  • Resistance levels: 1.12750, 1.13000, 1.13250

If the price fixes below 1.12350, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.12000.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.13000-1.13250.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32053
  • Open: 1.31560
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.43
  • Day’s range: 1.31254 – 1.31985
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD started to descend. The trading instrument updated the local minimums. An ambigous situation around Brexit keeps pushing GBP down. Yesterday the British Parliament rejected all 8 Brexit project. The key support and resistance levels are 1.31400 and 1.32000. The GBP/?USD quotes have a tendency to descend. You should open positions from the key levels.

The UK Economic News Feed for 28.03.2019 is calm. Keep an eye on the US news feed.

GBP/USD

The indicators point to the power of the sellers, the price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line which gives a signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which also points to the bearish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31400, 1.31000, 1.30300
  • Resistance levels: 1.32000, 1.32500, 1.33000

If the price fixes below 1.31400, expect the qutoes to fall toward 1.31000.

Alternatively, the qutoes can grow toward 1.32300-1.32600.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Registration The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.33843
  • Open: 1.34113
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.23
  • Day’s range: 1.34014 – 1.34313
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD keeps its ambiguous technical picture. The quotes are in a flat, currently testing 1.34000 and 1.34400 levels. The financial market participants are waiting for important reports from the US. Keep an eye on the oil quotes dynamics. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 28.03.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

The indicators point to the power of the buyers, the price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and keeps rising, which points to the growth of USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.34000, 1.33750, 1.33500
  • Resistance levels: 1.34400, 1.35000

If the price fixes above 1.34400, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.35000.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.33750-1.33500.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.591
  • Open: 110.457
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.13
  • Day’s range: 110.018 – 110.531
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY shows an ambigous technical picture. The trading instrument is moving in a flat, the supply and demand zones are 110.000-109.800 and 110.500-110.700. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. Keep an eye on the economic releases and the US Treasury Bonds` yield. Open the positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 28.03.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price is testing 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.000, 109.800, 109.500
  • Resistance levels: 110.500, 110.700, 111.150

If the price fixes below the round 110.000, expect the quotes to fall toward 109.600-109.400.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 110.800-111.000.

Analytics by JustForex

Dollar Index Has Updated Weekly Highs

by JustForex

The US dollar is strengthening against the basket of world currencies. The dollar index (#DX) has set new weekly highs. Demand for the US currency is supported amid the “dovish” rhetoric of key Central Banks. Yesterday, President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, said that interest rates rise could be postponed for a longer period. Earlier, the RBNZ announced that in the near future it was ready to consider the issue of introducing additional expansionary actions. Investors are still concerned about the inversion of the US government bonds yield curve.

The situation concerning Brexit is in the spotlight. Yesterday, British lawmakers rejected all eight options for Brexit. We recommend following current information on this issue. Today, financial market participants will assess important economic releases from the US.

The “black gold” prices have been declining due to the growth of crude oil inventories in the US. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $59.00 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was the bearish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.52%), #DIA (-0.14%), #QQQ (-0.64%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been declining and has updated annual highs. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.35-2.36%.

The news feed on 28.03.2019:

– Report on US GDP at 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
– Pending home sales index in the US at 16:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

EURUSD: bears could try to trigger stop levels at 1.1240

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari

Previous:

On Wednesday the 27th of March, trading on the euro closed down. In the space of 5 trading days, the euro has shed 1.48% against the dollar, which is mostly the result of developments relating to Brexit weighing down on the euro via the EURGBP cross, as well as a retreat towards safe havens bolstering the dollar.

It’s worth pointing out that the dollar is rising amid declining US10Y bond yields, because market participants are focusing on the discrepancy between 10-year and 2-year bond yields. At the moment, however, US10Y bond yields are higher (2.35%) than US02Y (2.18%) and US03Y (2.19%).

Mario Draghi added fuel to the fire yesterday with his hint that any potential interest rate hike could be delayed if deemed necessary.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: M3 money supply (Feb), private loans (Feb).
  • 12:10 Eurozone: ECB’s De Guindos speech.
  • 13:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Mar), economic sentiment indicator (Mar), industrial confidence (Mar), business climate (Mar).
  • 15:30 US: GDP (Q4), initial jobless claims (22 Mar).
  • 16:00 Germany: harmonised index of consumer prices (Mar).
  • 17:00 US: pending home sales (Feb).
  • 20:15 US: Fed’s Williams speech.

EURUSD H1

Current situation:

Market volatility remains high due to Brexit, as well as the retreat from risky assets. Our pair closed down on Wednesday and the euro is currently trading at 1.1256

The hourly chart shows that a strong support has formed at the 67th degree. The pair is currently trading 14 pips away from it. In terms of Gann levels, the conditions for entering the market have been fulfilled. However, there are 2 factors that are bothering me. Firstly, the pair is rising despite a lack of trading volume. Secondly, the stochastic oscillator has moved into the sell zone. This makes me think that there are some hidden stop levels on long positions just below 1.1240. If this is the case, the big players need to trigger these to activate their limit orders. If the stop levels are triggered, this could lead to an increased volume of short positions on the euro, which will then prompt the bulls to enter the market.

With a surge in trading volume, a recovery to 1.1295 within the channel is possible. I expect to see a bounce from the lower boundary of the channel at 1.1236. If the bulls aren’t tempted by this then after a small bounce and a dip on the stochastic below 50, we could see a breakout to the downside of the trend line at 1.1265. Keep an eye on today’s headlines.

The World’s Largest Oil Company And Petrochemical Company Merge

By OilPrice.com

The long awaited Saudi Aramco acquisition of Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) is finally here.

With a statement to the press, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reported that Aramco has acquired a 70 percent stake in SABIC, with an estimated value of $69.1 billion. Aramco’s CEO Nasser reiterated that the “deal is a major step in accelerating Saudi Aramco’s transformative downstream growth strategy”.

Aramco has acquired the shares from the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) for a share price of 123.39 riyals, which is a slight discount from SABIC’s closing price on Wednesday. Analysts have been positive about the closing price, based on the fact that the acquisition is seen as a strategic, long-term investment, especially given that SABIC is one of the most defensive, non-cyclical segments.

Still, there could be criticism as Aramco has been looking at a much bigger discount during its negotiations the PIF. Nasser stated also that Aramco and SABIC together will be creating a stronger and more robust business that can meet rising demand for energy and chemicals products globally.

PIF’s CEO Yasir Othman Al Rumayyan stated that the deal is a win-win-win transaction, looking at the positive effects for Aramco, SABIC and the PIF at the same time. For the PIF, the objectives has been to generate additional cash for the SWF to invest and generate higher yields than it currently was able to. The PIF, as the main investment fund of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been tasked to finance and support the ongoing economic diversification and liberalization of the Saudi economy, as indicated in Saudi Vision 2030 and the NIDLP.

Officially the deal is a real winner, looking at the positive effects following a merger between the world’s largest oil company and the world’s largest petrochemical company. With the acquisition Aramco will be able to reach its targets of increasing current refining capacity from 4.9 million bpd to 8-10 million bpd by 2030 much quicker. Of the latter 8-10 million bpd Aramco wants to convert 2-3 million into petrochemical products.

Still there is a long list of questions to be asked and answered. The first will be how to integrate SABIC’s Saudi and international business operations into Aramco, still largely a Saudi based and managed company. Without doubt Saudi Aramco’s managerial and technical standards and operations are top-class, several off them even better than most IOCs. The managerial changes currently ongoing inside of Aramco have propped up the company to become a major power player in- and outside the Kingdom. The situation within SABIC is different. The petrochemical giant is facing increased international pressure, but continues enjoy a strong position in Saudi markets and benefits from an active acquisition spree of the 1990s and 2000s. SABIC’s European and American based operations are up to speed, with its European subsidiary being a market leader. Inside of the Kingdom, SABIC’s historical position of being a leader, however, is under pressure, and some even state that without Saudi support, the company already would have faced major difficulties. Managerial issues are a challenge too and could possibly lead to conflicts or merger problems with its new mother company. Based on inside knowledge, Aramco will have to deal with a much more conservatively operated and managed new kid in the family.

A second question being asked at present is how the Aramco deal will be financed. Looking at the current cashflow of Aramco, the oil giant will not have a real problem to finance the deal, possibly taking part of the needed cash from the international financial markets. However, it is more likely that the deal will entail a spread financing arrangement in which Aramco will be able to pay over a prolonged period of time. This would also mean that the highly anticipated deal which was largely meant to generate additional cash inflows for the PIF is not as lucrative or effective as was expected by the media. With a long period of payments, the PIF’s cash influx is not going to be $69.1 billion in one go, but spread over years. This could mean that the SWF still needs to find additional funding sources for its national and international project acquisitions.

Mainstream analysis is again addressing the fact that the deal is being done to fund Crown Prince MBS’s Saudi Vision 2030. There are no clear indications at present that this is the case. The only option to push MBS’ dream forward much quicker is to fully finance the Aramco-SABIC deal by international debt. Even with several large bond issues, MBS will not generate $70 billion in one go. Aramco’s management is also too conservative or prudent in its investments to take this route without caution. By entering the international capital markets, Aramco will be forced also to open up its books and present detailed financial statements to potential financial institutions.

A possible other not yet addressed issue is the fact that with the SABIC acquisition, Aramco has become a fully integrated international oil company. By taking over SABIC operations worldwide Aramco also has not only increased its exposure globally to downstream but also to possible geopolitical issues or legal threats, such as NOPEC or the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA). By becoming a major downstream giant, Aramco has entered the premises of IOCs, traders and chemical producers worldwide. Competition will be fierce, demanding major changes within the SABIC operations worldwide and adjusting the upstream focus of Aramco with a bang. As stated by Aramco, it has appointed banks, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and National Commercial Bank to manage a potential bond sale.

Finding enough appetite in the market for a Saudi bond sale is still an issue. Geopolitical risks and concerns about the internal stability of the Saudi royal family could decrease the appetite of major financial institutions. The Kingdom might be listed on several emerging markets indexes (FTSE/MSCI), but investment appetite is being constrained by the impact of the Khashoggi murder, increased volatility in oil markets and pressure on the position of the Crown Prince.

Some analysts are expecting the Aramco-SABIC merger to be a major step forward in the Aramco IPO. Looking at the need for financial reporting and opening up the books of Aramco, a full scale downstream IPO, including SABIC operations and assets can now be considered.

Link to article:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Worlds-Largest-Oil-Company-And-Petrochemical-Company-Merge.html

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com

 

Manrre REIT’s message to Dubai property doubters, “we’re buying”

By George Prior

The Palmon Group lead property fund – Manrre, has acquired AED 220m of Dubai commercial assets paying 8% annual dividends and open to smaller investors

“Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” Wise words from legendary investor Warren Buffet, giving inspiration to Dalma Capital CEO Zachary Cefaratti in a contrarian strategy to back a Dubai commercial property fund and “buy the dip”.

“Dalma Capital’s pedigree in hedge fund management leads us to often make contrarian investments. In cyclical asset classes like property, contrarian strategies are part of the playbook of astute investors including Ray Dalio and Warren Buffet.”

“Manrre investment opens an opportunity usually only available to large, institutional investors and UHNWs”

Property speculators might see reason to doubt the Dubai market. Many believe that a decade of high-speed development has left the gulf city with an oversupply of property, particularly at the high end of the market. And the Dirham’s peg to the Dollar and possible rising interest rates have some spooked.

But concerns for speculators aren’t concerns for longer-term investors, Cefaratti makes clear.

“These concerns are well known in the market – and are already reflected in substantial price decreases in recent years. Manrre views this as an opportunity to ‘buy the dip’, taking advantage of depressed asset prices.”

It’s a message confirmed by emerging markets investment guru Mark Mobius. Speaking at the Financial Times’ Global Financial Forum, Mobius – a three-decade veteran of Franklin Templeton – reiterated that there was no need for concern about Dubai oversupply.

“In any growth situation, you’re going to get ups and downs.” He said. “The important thing to remember is that in these cycles the peaks get higher and higher, because you’re building a larger and larger base.”

The Manrre fund is currently AED220m, with a view to grow to AED550m

Manrre REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) is now actively targeting Dubai logistics and industrial property in robust sub-markets such as Jafza, National Industrial Park, Dubai South, Dubai Investment Park, strengthening their position as a logistics and industrial REIT.

Crucially, Manrre opens opportunity to investors often squeezed out of such top tier strategies. Speaking on behalf of the family-owned Palmon Group, Kunal Lahori, Executive Director, emphasised the opportunity.

“Our family has been investing in Dubai commercial Property for over 30 years, we’ve seen many cycles. Dubai remains a world-class, safe-haven investment destination. Indeed, the investment landscape is becoming ever-more secure. Its real estate routinely outperforms that in other global destinations and stable, income generating assets can provide a hedge against volatility in equity markets.”

Manrre REIT’s core investment objectives include generating a regular source of income for investors, with quarterly dividends targeting an 8% annualized return.

The collaboration between Dalma Capital, a renowned hedge fund manager in the Dubai International Financial Centre, and Palmon Group, one of the longest-standing conglomerates in Jafza, presents an unprecedented opportunity for smaller investors to own income-generating industrial assets across UAE.

Manohar Lahori, Chairman at Palmon Group concludes: “Savvy investors understand that the current market conditions are right to acquire assets and to prepare for when it inevitably picks up.  It is a time-honoured and successful strategy.”

About Dalma Capital

Dalma Capital is a global alternative investment fund accelerator and platform focused on alpha generating strategies with an inherent edge in emerging investment strategies and markets. Dalma’s edge also extends to investment banking opportunities in innovative products including disruptive technologies, blockchain investments and Sukuk. Established in 2011 and headquartered in the Dubai International Finance Centre, Dalma Capital’s goal is to identify the next generation of alpha generating ‘edge’ fund managers, strategies and opportunities.

www.dalmacapital.com

About Palmon Group

Palmon Group was born over 40 years ago when Manohar Lahori established his first business venture, a garment factory under the name of Palmon Exports in Mumbai, India. A decade later, in 1985 Palmon moved its operations to Dubai after a chance meeting with late Sheikh Rashid Bin Saeed Al Maktoum and so Palmon became one of the first companies to establish in UAE’s first free zone – Jafza.

Palmon Group made its name by shipping apparel to high-demand retailers in the US and Europe, including the likes of Walmart, Marks & Spencer and Gap. As a result of Manohar Lahori’s vision, dedication and hard work, by 1992 the Palmon Group had increased its apparel production multifold to meet worldwide demand and operated 19 factories. In the 90s, the firm had 4,000 employees with sales offices in London, Manchester and New York.

From its core business of clothes manufacturing, the Palmon Group branched out into a series of other sectors, including logistics, warehousing, facilities management and real estate. The group has extensive investments in property both in the UAE and overseas. In late 2018, Palmon Group formed Manrre REIT, a DIFC based property fund.

www.palmongroup.com

www.manrre.com

Japanese Candlestick Analysis for GOLD and NZDUSD: 27/03/2019

Article By RoboForex.com

GOLD

On H4, the gold is rising, making pullbacks every now and again. A correction is happening, with the price forming such reversal patterns as doji, inverted hammer, and engulfment. By analyzing the previous moves, one can assume the pair may continue uptrending once the pullback is over.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD

On H4, the pair has formed a few reversal patterns, such as falling star and doji, and bounced off the resistance. The NZDUSD is now trading near the support. By analyzing the previous moves, one can assume the NZDUSD may start forming a new uptrend after a correction.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GOLD

On H4, the gold is rising, making pullbacks every now and again. A correction is happening, with the price forming such reversal patterns as doji, inverted hammer, and engulfment. By analyzing the previous moves, one can assume the pair may continue uptrending once the pullback is over.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD

On H4, the pair has formed a few reversal patterns, such as falling star and doji, and bounced off the resistance. The NZDUSD is now trading near the support. By analyzing the previous moves, one can assume the NZDUSD may start forming a new uptrend after a correction.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT: Tech Analysis, 26/03/2019

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD

The EURUSD correction reached 1.1330 today and may head down to 1.1302. A consolidation range may form, which may either send the price up to 1.1389, or push it lower to 1.1270.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD

The pound is consolidating near 1.3265, forming a widening triangle. The pair may sink today to 1.3140 and then rise to 1.3268. After that, it may go back to 1.2950.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF

The USD/CHF reached its correction target and may first rise to 0.9984 and then fall to 0.9955.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY

The USDJPY is correcting to 110.26 and is likely to get down to 109.55, still going back then to 110.58, and then to 109.29.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD correction is nearly over, and today the pair may first reach 0.7054, and then, if a breakout occurs, sink to 0.6990.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB

The USDRUB followed yet another descending move. Today, it may reach 64.34, which may either send the price up to 64.82, or push it down to 62.77.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GOLD

The gold is near the ascending channel boundary and may first sink to 1313.83, then return to 1325.76, and then get down to 1306.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent crude has virtually reached its downmove and correction target. Today, it may go down again, to reach 64.78, i.e. a local target.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Are Investors Blind To The Equities Upside Super Cycle?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our research team believes the upside pricing potential of the US market could be under-estimated by global traders and investors.  We’ve been pouring over the charts and data trying to substantiate our hypothesis with our proprietary price modeling systems and technical analysis systems for the past few days.  Our results suggest the US stock market, in comparison to the global markets, could still be under-priced at current levels based on investor sentiment and this could be just the beginning of a super cycle rally we have seen happen one before.

Last year during the price rotation in February 2018, we hypothesized the current rotation was not the end of a 5-Wave Elliot Wave formation.  We believe the January 2018 highs are potentially the end of Wave 3 which is part of a much larger Wave A upside price swing.  Our research suggested that the retracements in 2010 and 2011 were not sufficient to qualify as any type of traditional Elliot Wave structure, thus the retracement in 2015 qualified as a Wave B formation.  This presented an upside Wave A size of +366%, or +$89.66, on the QQQ chart.  The Wave C move, from the lows of 2015 to the highs of 2018, presented an upside Wave C size of +121%, or +$102.77.  Given these Wave A and C sizes, we believe the upside potential of a final Wave E (the last wave higher) in the US stock market could be at least 100% to 161% the size of the last Wave C formation.

This presents a very interesting possibility that our most recent article about the Treasury Yield Inversion and the concerns about a pending recession may be setting the wrong tone for traders.  Yes, the 2020 Presidential election cycles typically result in some price rotation and sideways trading for US stocks.  This may hold true over the next 16+ months before the elections and there may not be much we can do about it other than trade these price rotations.  After the elections, though, we believe the upside price potential for the US stock market could be incredibly under-estimated.  How under-estimated, you ask?  The upside potential could be as large as +20% to 25% or more.

The red box on this Weekly NQ (NASDAQ) chart highlights the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave target levels when we presume a 100% upside price leg.  Please remember the upside leg could be as large as 161%, 200% or more on this final Wave E (or Wave 5).  The projected upside target levels on the NQ are near 9250 (or higher).

The same types of price projection points (or targets) using the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theories predict a similar upside target level on this Weekly YM (DOW JONES) chart.  Current price rotation suggests an upside target near $31,000 for the YM (or higher) before this upside move completes.

 

Remember, the US Presidential election cycles typically mute price rotation a bit and present a bit of sideways trading.  We’ve highlighted our expectations on the following Custom Market Cap Chart we follow that helps us determine where price levels are in relation to historical norms.  You can see from this chart that we are currently sitting right at the historical middle pricing level going back almost 8 years.  We would expect a moderate upside pricing bias to continue as we head into the US election cycle with mild price rotation.  After the election cycle is complete, which is highlighted on this chart, we assume market price capitalization would be below historically normal levels and poised for an upside move (assuming a new US President is not elected with plans/policies to disrupt current GDP and economic growth factors).

Typically, Wave E (or Wave 5) formations can be relatively short in structure, or at least as long as Wave A or Wave C.  It is most common for Wave E formations to at least be as long as Wave C and in many cases, Wave E can extend well beyond Wave C length.

Custom Index – Custom Index chart by TradingView

We believe the next 16+ months will test the abilities and skills of truly skilled traders.  We believe price rotation and sector rotation will be key to finding and executing proper trades.  All the while, remember that a biased upside price trend will likely continue.  As we get into the final 4~5 month’s price to the US elections, be prepared to identify and set up some exceptional trading opportunities.  If our research is correct, this last move higher will begin somewhere near January 2021 and the upside move could last until our cycle peak date of 2027 which may sound crazy, but I will share you with a super cycle higher that could happen, and we have seen this before. Stay tuned for the Part II of this Special Report

Find out how our research and trading team can assist you in finding and executing better trades throughout all of these moves.  We are about to launch our newest technology solution for our members at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com and we believe we provide some of the best research, daily video analysis and trading triggers you can find anywhere on the planet.  We like to keep things simple and manageable for our members.  We issue 2~3 trades a week (max) and we target 5~25% swings in ETF and stocks.  We also provide incredible insight into the markets which allows you, the skilled trader, to make your own trading decisions while being better informed and understanding current market dynamics.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.03.27

Analytics by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.13158
  • Open: 1.12696
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.34
  • Day’s range: 1.12469 – 1.12772
  • 52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR/USD started to descend again. During the last two days of trading, the quotes fell by 60 points and set the new minimums. This is mostly caused by technical factors and right now the quotes are consolidating around 1.12500-1.12800. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.03.2019:

  • – Trading Balance Report (US) – 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
EUR/USD

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.12500, 1.12000
  • Resistance levels: 1.12800, 1.13000, 1.13250

If the price fixes below 1.12500, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.12000.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.13200-1.13400.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.31946
  • Open: 1.32053
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.05
  • Day’s range: 1.31661 – 1.32150
  • 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD is in a long flat. The key support and resistance levels are 1.31600 and 1.32250. The Brexit remains in the spotlight. As a reminder, last week the British parliamentaries voted to handle the Brexit situation themselves, revoking Theresa May’s rights. Today the parliamentaries will vote on different Brexit options. Keep tracking this situations and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.03.2019 is calm.

GBP/USD

The indicators do not provide precise data, the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.31600, 1.31000, 1.30300
  • Resistance levels: 1.32250, 1.33000, 1.33600

If the price fixes above 1.32250, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.32750-1.33000.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 1.31000.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Registration The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.34064
  • Open: 1.33843
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.16
  • Day’s range: 1.33783 – 1.34052
  • 52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

USD/CAD shows a variety of trends. The trading instrument is consolidating. The financial market participants are waiting for additional drivers. CAD is testing the local support and resistance levels at 1.33750 and 1.34100. The USD/CAD quotes have a tendency to descend. Keep an eye on the oil quotes dynamics and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.03.2019 is calm.

USD/CAD

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.33750, 1.33500, 1.33100
  • Resistance levels: 1.34100, 1.34400, 1.35000

If the price fixes below 1.33750, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.33500-1.33200.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.34300-1.34600..

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.977
  • Open: 110.591
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.55
  • Day’s range: 110.407 – 110.711
  • 52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY retreated from the monthly maximums. Yesterday the quotes grew by 60 points and are currently consolidating around 110.400-110.700. It’s possible that the bearish mood will return soon due to weak economic releases from the US and a fall of the US Treasury bonds’ yield. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.03.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and below the signal line which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.400, 110.100, 109.800
  • Resistance levels: 110.700, 110.900, 111.150

If the price fixes below 110.400, expect the quotes to fall toward 110.000-109.800.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 111.000-111.200.

Analytics by JustForex

The US Currency Is in the Green Despite Weak Statistics

by JustForex

The US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies despite weak economic statistics. Thus, the number of building permits decreased to 1,296M in February, while experts forecasted 1,320M. CB consumer confidence index fell to 124.1 in March instead of the expected value of 132.0. The dollar index (#DX) updated weekly highs and closed the trading session in the positive zone (+0.25%).

Today, during the Asian session, the New Zealand dollar has been collapsed after the RBNZ meeting. The regulator decided on the key interest rate and left it unchanged at 1.75%. The Central Bank announced that in the near future it was ready to consider the issue of lowering interest rates.

Financial market participants are still interested in Brexit. It should be recalled that on Monday, parliamentarians voted to take control of the Brexit process instead of Theresa May. Today, a meeting of the Parliament should be held, at which officials will vote for various options for the country’s exit from the block. Parliament will consider an option of “softer” Brexit, its delay or even its cancellation. However, it is still unclear which option the majority will vote for. It became known that Parliament considered the draft of Theresa May’s deal as the best alternative to the “hard” scenario or the rejection of Brexit.

The “black gold” prices are maintaining current levels. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $59.85 per barrel. At 16:30 (GMT+2:00), a report on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.75%), #DIA (+0.54%), #QQQ (+0.47%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is declining. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.39-2.40%.

The news feed on 27.03.2019:

Today, the publication of important economic data is not expected. We recommend paying attention to the statistics on the US trade balance at 14:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex