EURUSD is consolidating around 1.1222. Possibly, the pair may form one more ascending structure towards 1.1255 to finish the correction. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend. The first downside target is at 1.1166, the key one – 1.1111.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD has completed another descending structure; right now, it is being corrected. Possibly, today the pair may test 1.3044 form one more ascending structure towards 1.3099. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the first target at 1.2950.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF is trading downwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 0.9965 and then resume growing with the short-term target at 1.0025.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY is forming the first descending impulse with the target at 111.24. Later, the market may be corrected towards 111.53 and then form the second impulse with the predicted target at 111.00.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD has broken the downside border of the range; the target is at 0.7066. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 0.7101 and then start a new decline with the short-term target at 0.7011.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
USDRUB is forming another descending structure. Today, the pair may break 65.06 and then continue falling with the short-term predicted target at 64.60.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is trading upwards. Possibly, the pair may be corrected towards 1310.10. If the price breaks 1295.05, the instrument may continue growing to reach 1304.00. Later, the market may return to 1295.05 to test it from above and then finish the correction at 1310.10. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1274.10.
BRENT
Brent has reached 70.90. Today, the pair may be corrected to test 68.60 from above and then form one more ascending structure to reach 73.05. After that, the instrument may start another correction with the target at 63.65.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
As we can see in the H4 chart, after reaching the retracement of 38.2%, XAUUSD is forming a new mid-term correction. The downside targets are the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1271.60 and 1253.83 respectively. After the previous descending impulse, there was a convergence, which may indicate a possible pullback. The local resistance level is at 1311.15.
The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the correction. The possible targets may be the retracements of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 1297.50, 1302.70, and 1307.80 respectively. If the price breaks the local low at 1280.80, the instrument may continue its decline.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
As we can see in the H4 chart, the correctional uptrend has already reached the retracement of 50.0%. The next upside target may be the retracement of 61.8% at 1.0034. The support level is the low at 0.9894.
In the H1 chart, there was a divergence and the pair started a new decline, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next downside targets may be the retracement of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 0.9967, 0.9953, and 0.9939 respectively. The resistance level is the local high at 1.0012.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EUR\USD shows an ambiguous technical picture. The trading instrument is consolidating. EUR\USD are testing the local support and resistance levels at 1.12100 and 1.12350 respectively. The financial market participants are evaluating the US March Labour Market report. USD is under pressure due to the descend of the US Treasury Bonds’ yield. You should open positions from the key levels.
The indicators do not provide precise data, the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.
The MACD histogram is close to 0.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.12100, 1.11850, 1.11500
Resistance levels: 1.12350, 1.12550, 1.12800
If the price fixes at 1.12100, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.11800-1.11500.
Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.12500-1.12700.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.30733
Open: 1.30350
% chg. over the last day: -0.31
Day’s range: 1.30220 – 1.30721
52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378
GBP\USD is consolidating. The technical picture is ambiguous. GBP is testing the local support and resistance levels at 1.30300 and 1.30700. The trading instrument has a tendency to descned. The financial market participants are keeping a close eye on Brexit. Theresa May recently sent a letter to Brussel with a request to postpone Brexit until June 30. Keep an eye on this issue and open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 08.04.2019 is calm.
The indicators point to the power of the sellers, 50 MA fixed below 200 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.30300, 1.29850, 1.29500
Resistance levels: 1.30700, 1.31200, 1.31500
If the quotes fix below 1.30300, expect further fall toward 1.29900-1.29700.
Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.31000-1.31200.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
USD/CAD was in a bullish mood on Friday and updated the local maximum. Currently it is stabilizing around 1.33650 and 1.34000. The pressure on the USD is caused by the lowering US Treasury bonds’ yield. The bullish mood on the oil market supports CAD. The currency pair has a tendency to descend, you should open positions from the key levels.
At 15:30 (GMT+3:00) we expect the Canadian real estate market report.
The indicators do not provide precise signals, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal to buy USD\CAD
The Stochastic Oscillator is close to the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.33650, 1.33400, 1.33100
Resistance levels: 1.34000, 1.34400
If the price fixes below 1.33650, consider selling USD/CAD, the price is expected to fall toward 1.33400-1.33100.
Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.34200-1.34400.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 111.643
Open: 111.666
% chg. over the last day: +0.05
Day’s range: 111.343 – 111.740
52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56
USD/JPY started to descend. A technical correction is possible soon, due to the afthermath of a long rally. The key levels are 111.350 and 111.750. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds’ yield and open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 08.04.2019 is calm.
The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price fixed between 50 MA and 200 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line which gives a strong signal to buy USD/JPY.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 111.450, 111.150, 110.850
Resistance levels: 111.750, 112.000
If the price fixes above 111.350, expect further growth toward 111.000-110.800.
Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 112.000.
Last week we had strong numbers out of China and our research continues to suggest the Chinese stock market could be poised for an upside price rally of at least 15% over the next 30+ days before possibly reaching a peak in June or July 2019. Our Fibonacci predictive modeling system is suggesting a target level of $30.50 to $31.50 (in YINN) as an immediate upside profit range.
We believe the continued pricing pressures of 2018 are easing as continued negotiations with US trade officials have everyone in high hopes for a suitable and equitable outcome. Our researchers believe the upside in the Chinese stock market could be as high as $32 to $36 in YINN before the June/July peak is reached. This would represent a +25% to +40% upside price objective from recent highs.
It is our belief that the continued US/Chinese stock market rally that initiated after the December 24, 2018 bottom will continue until a June/July 2019 peak is reached in the global markets. Pay attention because this could be an excellent short term price move for skilled traders to pocket 10% to 20% over just a few days or weeks.
Another pocket of stocks also starting to breakout are small-caps which I shared in a detailed technical analysis video last week. While we have suggested the US stock market is poised for further upside price activity with a moderately strong upside price “bias”, our research continues to suggest the SP500, DOW, NASDAQ stock markets will not break out to the upside until the Russell 2000 breaks the current price channel, Bull Flag, formation which is why I am starting to focus on small-cap stocks using my MRM Trading Strategy.
Please visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about how we help our members learn to find and execute incredible trading opportunities. We’ve recently launched a new technology solution for our members that delivers our incredible research and trading solutions. 2019 is going to continue to be an incredible year for skilled traders or those who follow our analysis – you won’t want to miss these big moves that are setting up.
On Friday, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies despite the publication of mixed economic statistics. Thus, nonfarm payrolls increased by 196K in March, while experts expected growth by 175K. The unemployment rate counted to 3.8% in March, which matched the investors’ expectations. However, growth in average hourly earnings slowed down from 0.4% to 0.1% in March. Experts expected the figure at 0.2%. The dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session with a slight increase (+0.08%).
The US government bonds yield has been decreasing again, which puts additional pressure on the greenback. Financial market participants are still focused on political events. British Prime Minister Theresa May asked Brussels for Brexit delay until June 30 in order British parliamentarians could agree on a deal of exiting the country from the block. Last week, US President Donald Trump said that Washington and Beijing were very close to reaching an agreement in trade disputes. Partners can sign a trade deal in the next four weeks. We recommend following current information on these issues.
The “black gold” prices are showing positive dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are consolidating near $63.25 per barrel.
Market Indicators
On Friday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.48%), #DIA (+0.14%), #QQQ (+0.52%).
The 10-year US government bonds yield has updated local lows. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.49-2.50%.
Today, the news feed is rather calm:
– Housing starts in Canada at 15:15 (GMT+3:00); – Factory orders in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).
The luxury British car maker Aston Martin has learned a hard lesson; namely, diamonds may be forever, but the market for $400,000 cars is not. A February 28 Guardian article confirms that since going public on the London Stock Exchange last October, Aston Martin’s shares have plummeted 40% amidst billions of dollars in losses. To be fair, some of the loss can be attributed to the company’s IPO costs, but we believe that where there’s smoke, there’s fire. The IPO, in and of itself, is a splendid signal that the credit cycle, and the positive social mood which fueled a massive expansion of credit and rising stock values, is undergoing a bearish shift. A fall in Aston Martin’s fortunes equally represents a fall out of favor of one of the most recognizable bull market icons — Bond, James Bond.
Since Ian Fleming wrote the caddish secret agent into being in 1952 amidst the postwar bull market, Bond’s popularity has risen and fallen with the Dow. (See chapter 10 of Socionomic Studies of Society and Culturehere.) And since Bond drove onto the big screen in 1964’s “Goldfinger” in his epochal Silver Birch DB5, the character has been synonymous with the luxury car brand.
In 2005, during the great stock market boom and one year before the 2006 blockbuster hit “Casino Royale,” Aston Martin experienced its best year on record and turned a profit for the first time in its 90-year history. Optimism was so high that a June 26, 2007 Motortrend piece affirmed that the company’s new owners, who just bought it for $1 billion, planned to “recover a good chunk of their investment through an initial public offering in the London Stock Exchanges within five years.” Those plans were soon derailed by the 2007 stock market peak and ensuing global financial crisis. Aston’s IPO hopes went up in smoke, as a December 1, 2008 Telegraph article revealed, the car maker’s drastic cut of “one-third of its workforce amidst the extraordinary market condition we all now face.”
Flash ahead to 2018, the 2007-9 Great Recession firmly in the rearview amidst a record-shattering bull market, and Aston Martin decides to “remake the Classic James Bond DB5” at a sky-high price of $3.5 million (Put it on “M’s” tab!). Coincidentally, the car maker announced take two of its plans for an IPO. In an August 29 report titled “Live and Let Die,” I published the following long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which showed five instances when Aston Martin’s insolvency or deep financial stress coincided with troughs in the global economy and wrote:
“Now, with Aston Martin”s popularity and confidence so elevated that it is going public, the probability that the IPO coincides with a peak in the global economy is high. Expect financial markets to be shaken, as well as stirred, in the months ahead.”
Aston Martin Lagonda’s first day of trading as a public company was on October 3, 2018 the exact day of the top in the Dow. Fittingly, global James Bond Day was October 5. The Dow then declined by 19% into December, while Aston’s stock plunged 40%, no doubt making investors feel like Goldfinger did when Bond took away his gold.
The 25th installment of the James Bond franchise, “Bond 25,” is slated to hit theaters in 2020. Meanwhile, Aston Martin hinted of a partnership with “aerospace experts to develop a new model with takeoff and landing capabilities.” (September 20 USA Today). I can envision no better symbol of soaring optimism than a flying Aston in the next Bond film. But should the villain of a bear climb into the passenger side of the market as it is whisking through the clouds, investors are going to wish for a Q-worthy ejector button to cast it out.
Discover how the popularity of James Bond films has fluctuated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average in this free chapter from Socionomic Studies of Society and Culture. Read the chapter now.
A common claim from economic and stock market observers is that a rising trade deficit is injurious to the economy — hence, bearish for stocks. On the other hand, a falling trade deficit is commonly believed to be bullish for stocks.
Sounds like common sense, but the price action of the main stock indexes often defy reason.
For example, on March 27, CNBC reported, “The U.S. trade deficit fell much more than expected in January to $51.15 billion, from a forecast $57 billion. The decline of 14.6 percent represented the sharpest drop since March 2018… .” Yet on the day the news was released, the main U.S. stock indexes closed lower.
Over the years, countless economists and investors have been baffled when the stock market has risen on bad news and fallen when the news was good. This has happened time and time again with news regarding the expansion or contraction of the trade deficit.
Consider the following news items from the past four decades and contextual comments in brackets (courtesy of Robert Prechter’s 2017 book The Socionomic Theory of Finance):
March 28, 1981
The Commerce Department… reported the nation’s balance of trade deficit had improved in February. [The second of back-to-back recessions began just five months later.]
March 1, 1984
“… the trade deficit is an economic disaster,” said [a] chief economist. [An eight-year boom was just getting going.]
April 12, 1985
The secretary of state said, “We can break the back of the trade deficit only through…a stronger worldwide recovery….” [Precisely the opposite was true; the trade deficit rose during the strong worldwide recovery.]
May 26, 1990
The better-than-expected trade performance sent many economists scurrying to revise their trade forecasts. [A recession started a month later.]
February 22, 2002
The nation’s trade deficit narrowed by 11.4 percent in December. [The stock market was peaking and collapsed to new lows in October.]
February 15, 2008
[A chief economist] said that the smaller December trade deficit will help to boost overall economic growth. [The second-worst financial crash and economic contraction in a hundred years were already underway.]
And, on July 14, 2010, USA Today said:
Rising trade deficit could drag down U.S. recovery.
But, as we know, the economic recovery continued.
The below chart and commentary provide even more evidence.
As published in The Socionomic Theory of Finance
The chart reveals that had economists reversed their statements and expressed relief whenever the trade deficit began to expand and concern whenever it began to shrink, they would have quite accurately negotiated the ups and downs of the stock market and the economy over the past 40 years. The relationship, if there is one, is precisely the opposite of the one they believe is there. Over the span of these data, there has been a consistently positive–not negative–correlation among the stock market, the economy and the trade deficit.
The trade deficit’s widely presumed effect is 100% myth.
This is just one misconception in a long list of market myths… Do earnings really drive stock prices? Can the FDIC actually protect you? Is portfolio diversification a smart move? Read our free report “Market Myths Exposed“ now and find out whether your portfolio is built on flawed foundations.
With macro risk at very high levels in Europe – Brexit taking several sharp turns and the EU heading into the European Parliament elections the EUR and the GBP are becoming hard to touch as direction is changing like the wind.
Thus, it is prudent in this current environment to look to pairs or crosses that one can removed this geo-political risk. Right now, in my option, that cross is AUD/NZD.
The AUD has begun to outperform its Tasman counterpart as recent Australian economic data has surprised to the upside. Retail sales, balance of trade and employment remain above consensus forecasts and although there is deterioration in the housing market and growth risks leading to possible RBA rate cuts, the 40bp of cuts priced in for 2019 is well-flagged and in my view overdone.
Thus the trade has actually materialised from the NZD side. The communication from RBNZ has seen a significant shift in ‘view’ and has a dovish tone. This has led the market to believe the Bank is gearing up to cut rates by 25bp at the May meeting to 1.50%. Thus our short view of NZD
The differential in the AUD/NZD has been building for a while, the fall to $1.03 was built off the language and view changes from the RBA in February and the March statement. This is clearly overdone and ignores the RBA’s ‘want’ which is for rates to actually increase. If the RBA can sit on its hands it will and that data so far is backing this idea.
Secondly, Australia will benefit from constructive changes in the US-China trade war and overall increases in sentiment around the Chinese economy. Thus, an AUD/NZD long call is one we think will benefit over this period as these two point ramp up.
Back in December, we wrote an article titled “Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market.”
In the piece, we noted that while most experts believe that central banks set interest rates, it’s actually the other way around—the market leads, and the Fed follows.
We pointed out that the December rate hike followed increases in the six-month and three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields set by the market.
What happened with this week’s Fed announcement? Well, you guessed it—the Fed simply followed the market yet again.
The chart above is an updated version of the one we showed in our last article. The red line is the U.S. Federal Funds rate, the yellow line is the rate on the 3-month U.S. T-bill and the green line is the rate on the 6-month U.S. T-bill. The latter two rates are freely-traded in the auction arena, while the former rate is set by the Fed.
Now observe the grey ellipses. Throughout 2017-2018, the rates on 3-and-6-month U.S. T-bills were rising steadily, pushing above the Fed Fund’s rate. During the period shown on the graph, the Fed raised its interest rate six times, each time to keep up with the rising T-bill rates. The interest-rate market is the dog wagging the central-bank tail.
Now note what T-bill rates have been doing since November of last year; they’ve stopped rising. Rates have moved net-sideways, which was the market’s way of signaling that the Fed would not raise the Fed Funds rate this week.
Too many investors and pundits obsess over whether the Fed will raise or lower the Fed Funds rate and what it all supposedly means. First, if you want to know what the Fed will or will not do, simply look at T-bills, as shown on the chart. Second, whatever their action, it doesn’t matter because the Fed’s interest-rate policy cannot force people to borrow.
Day after day we get information about a new country updating its policies regarding cryptocurrencies, companies starting up all over the world, or mining operations being completely wiped out in others.
All of this information quickly becomes too much to process, as it is not compiled into an easy-to-understand article. All we get is a number of small articles, and the compilation process falls to us, the community.
Thankfully there are numerous infographics that detail the evolution of cryptocurrencies around the world, but not many of them try to cover all of the aspects of the technology. This infographic, made by Forexnewsnow.com tries to tackle all the legal, technical and economic aspects of digital assets. Displaying the density of crypto exchanges, the number of crypto ATMs and the crypto legal map of our world.
