As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is still testing the support level and forming Hammer and Harami reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, it may be assumed that after testing the level, the instrument may continue its ascending movement.
NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”
As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD is still testing another support level and forming Hammer and Harami reversal patterns. Judging by the previous movements, it may be assumed that after testing the level, the instrument may continue its growth.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
AUDUSD is trading at 0.7020; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the downside border of the cloud at 0.7040 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6925. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7115. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7175.
NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”
NZDUSD is trading at 0.6599; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the downside border of the cloud at 0.6635 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6445. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6685. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6755.
USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”
USDCAD is trading at 1.3484; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 1.3435 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3625. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the support level. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.3355. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3285.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EUR/USD kept losing positions and reached 22-monthly minimums. An array of weak economic releases hit the EUR hard. Yesterday the quotes fell by 70 points, now the instrument is consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.11400-1.11650. EUR/USD has a tendency to descend. The financial market participants are waiting for US economic reports. You should open positions from the key levels.
The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which points toward selling EUR/USD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points towards a bearish mood.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.11400, 1.11000
Resistance levels: 1.11650, 1.12000, 1.12300
If the price fixes below 1.11400, expect further descend toward 1.11000.
Alternatively, the quotes can recover towad 1.11900-1.12200.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.29369
Open: 1.29031
% chg. over the last day: -0.27
Day’s range: 1.28923 – 1.29166
52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378
GBP keeps showing a negative trend. The GBP/USD quotes set the new monthly minimums. The pressure on GBP/USD is caused by the Brexit ambiguousness. Theresa May mentioned that the negotiations with the Labour party became labourious. The quotes have consolidated around 1.28900-1.29200. The trading instrument has a tendency to descend, you should open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 25.04.2019 is calm.
The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.28900, 1.28500
Resistance levels: 1.29200, 1.29600, 1.29800
If the price fixes below 1.28900, expect further descend toward 1.28600-1.28400.
Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.29500-1.29700.
The USD/CAD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.34172
Open: 1.34841
% chg. over the last day: +0.51
Day’s range: 1.34820 – 1.35133
52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664
CAD kept losing positions against the USD. During the last two days of trading the instrument updated the 3-monthly maximums. The Bank of Canada kept the previous parameters of the monetary policy and lowered the economic prognosis of the country. The financial market participants have reasons to expect the lowering of the interest rates. The key trading range is 1.34600-1.35150. You should open positions from these levels and keep an eye on the US economic releases.
The Economic News Feed for 25.04.2019 is calm.
The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points toward the power of the buyers.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and keeps rising which gives a strong signal to buy USD/CAD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points toward a bullish mood.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.34600, 1.34200, 1.34000
Resistance levels: 1.35150, 1.35500
If the price fixes above 1.35150, expect further growth toward 1.35500-1.35700.
Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.34300-1.34000.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 111.861
Open: 112.136
% chg. over the last day: +0.23
Day’s range: 111.743 – 112.239
52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56
Trading activity and volatility have grown. The Bank of Japan, as expected, kept the interest rates and plans to keep the monetary policy until the next spring. Right now the quotes are consolidating around 111.800-112.000. The trading instrument has a tendency to descend, you should open positions from the key levels.
Keep an eye on the US economic releases.
The indicators do not provide precise signlas, the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which points towards a bearish mood.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the negative zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy USD/JPY.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 111.800, 111.650, 111.450
Resistance levels: 112.000, 112.150, 112.400
If the price fixes below 111.800, expect further descend toward 111.500-111.300.
Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 112.200-112.400.
The US dollar has continued to strengthen against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) set new annual highs and closed in the positive zone (+0.55%). Weak statistics from Germany hit the euro. Thus, the German IFO business climate index fell to 99.2, while experts expected the figure at 99.9. The Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%, as investors forecasted. The regulator has lowered the forecast for economic growth in the country this year.
Today, the Bank of Japan, as expected, has left the key marks of monetary policy unchanged. The Central Bank intends to keep interest rates at a low level at least until the end of spring 2020.
Meanwhile, the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, wants the country to become an independent state after Brexit. The official intends to hold a second Scottish independence referendum if the UK leaves the EU. In September 2014, an independence referendum was already held in Scotland. However, 55.3% of Scots voted against Scotland’s exit from the UK.
Prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil have surged in price after the United States announced its intention to return sanctions on Iran’s oil importers. However, yesterday the US authorities reported that despite the difficult situation in the global market, it is well supplied enough to avoid price glitches. US President Donald Trump is confident that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will compensate for the shortage in the oil market. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $66.10 per barrel.
Market Indicators
Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.22%), #DIA (-0.21%), #QQQ (-0.32%).
The 10-year US government bonds yield fell again. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.52-2.53%.
The news feed for 2019.04.25:
– Core durable goods orders in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00); – Initial jobless claims in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).
On Wednesday the 24th of April, trading on the euro closed down. In the US session, the bears broke an important support at 1.1170. Buyers tried to recover from this, but a lot of stop levels were activated below this level and the broadly stronger dollar pushed the euro further down to 1.1141.
The greenback showed some purposeful growth amid an aversion to risk on the market following weak data from Australia and Germany. All components of the German IFO report for April came out lower than in March.
The dollar was also boosted by the Canadian dollar’s decline. The loonie lost ground after the BoC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, while also downgrading their economic outlook. The regulator said that economic growth in the first half of 2019 will be lower than expected, but will pick up in the second half.
During the press conference, BoC Governor Steven Poloz noted that if the forecasts are accurate, then the bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the future than to lower them. This calmed markets as they now know that all they need to do is keep an eye on economic indicators.
I didn’t see the breakout of 1.1170 coming, because the 61.8% Fibonacci of the movement from 1.0340 to 1.2525 is at 1.1187. I was expecting the euro to be at 1.23 by June. The probability of this happening by then is now about 10%.
The global economic slowdown, trade wars, Brexit, and the softened stance of ECB President Mario Draghi have all sent the pair south. This has lost us some time. Even if we suppose that the euro will start rising now at the same pace as the bullish trend from 2017, it won’t reach 1.23 until the 25th of November this year.
I’ve included the pair’s weekly chart today instead of the hourly one in order to give a bird’s eye view of the pair’s trajectory. The euro is declining within the D-D channel. The pair hasn’t strayed too far from the 61.8% Fibo yet, so the closing price is very important.
Traders are now all awaiting US GDP data for Q1. If the figures disappoint, and the weekly candlestick closes above 1.1187, this will be confirmation of a false breakout. Since we’ve already got three lower lows on the weekly timeframe, from a technical point of view, the rebound could be strong. If GDP figures are seriously good, the immediate target will be 1.10 at the lower boundary of the E-E channel. After 1.10, the road is open towards 1.0863 (76.4%).
One of the most important things about making calls about any future price movement is to have confidence in your research team and systems. The second most important thing is to make these calls public so everyone can see if you were right or wrong about your predictions. Predicting the future, often many months in advance, is not an easy task. We like to ask people, how many people do you know that can predict something in the future, almost to the exact day, and find they were accurate more often than being wrong?
Well, this is the time we’ll see if our predictions are accurate or not. Back in October 2018, we issued a research post indicating that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall, then set up a momentum base between $1260 and $1275 near mid-April or early May. Here is a link to that public post: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/45-days-until-a-multi-year-breakout-for-precious-metals/
In February/March 2019, our research team honed in on the April 21~24 dates as a key cycle date for a very likely momentum bottom setup. You can read our research here. We believe these dates will be key to the future rally in Gold and they may very well be the last time we see sub-$1300 price levels for a while, but gold does need to reverse to the upside this week.
Currently, Gold is trading at $1278.10 with a recent low at $1273. Remember our original prediction that the momentum base would likely setup between $1260 and $1275? Right now, we believe this Momentum base is setting up exactly as we predicted back in October 2018 – over 6 months ago.
As we continue to watch this Momentum Base setup play out, we urge skilled traders to watch the outlying symbols for signs of confirmation and validation. The news about the Iran Oil Sanctions, today, may become a key element going forward – but it is too early to tell right now. We believe some global economic event will drive prices of Gold much higher over the next 30+ days.
Gold has moved lower over the past 30+ days from the $1340 level down to near the $1270 level – just as we predicted as well. The timing of this recent downswing in price is perfect for our April 21~24 Momentum Base call. We do believe there is still a chance that a $1255 to $1260 level may be seen this week or next. The Momentum Bottom/Basing formation may form over a 7 to 10+ day range. So, pay attention to these opportunities in Gold over the next few days and weeks.
NUGT (3x gold miners bull ETF) continues to fall as Gold Bases. In fact, NUGT has fallen to levels that we have not seen since January 2019. The reality of the matter is that NUGT may be the best confirmation tool/symbol we have right now for timing the end of our Momentum Base in Gold. When NUGT rotates higher and forms the base, it will very likely mark the end of weaker prices for the entire precious metals sector and the beginning of the upside price rally we have been predicting.
As our research team likes to state – this is “do or die” time with regards to our predictions from many months ago. We’ve stuck by them for months, telling anyone who would listen this setup would be the last time you see sub-$1300 levels in Gold for many months – possibly years. If our analysis is correct, we suggest you pay attention to these symbols and lower Gold price levels right now. Once this move begins to rally, it could take the markets by surprise.
Our expectations are that by mid-May, or so, we should already be in an upside price swing that should be targeting the $1450 to $1550 level. This means we have about 7 to 15 trading days until we start to see some real upside price move in precious metals.
We should remind you that gold needs to find a bottom this week and price could become choppy and volatile.
Get ready and follow our research. How many other research firms do you know that are capable of calling the markets 6+ months in advance with this type of accuracy?
Please visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades for your future.
EURUSD has reached 1.1194 and completed the first descending wave inside the fifth one. Today, the pair may fall to update the current lows and then form one more ascending structure to test 1.1226 from below.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD has tested 1.3021 from below and rebounded from it; right now, it is still trading downwards with the target at 1.2911. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 1.3021 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.2844.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
USDCHF has broken 1.0164 and may continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.0250. Later, the market may start another correction to reach 1.0188 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.0293.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
USDJPY has reached 111.90, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend towards 111.23; if to the upside – start a new growth with the target at 112.60.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
AUDUSD has completed another wave at 0.7070; right now, it is still trading downwards. Possibly, the pair may continue falling with the short-term target at 0.6987. The key target of this wave is at 0.6940.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
USDRUB is consolidating around 63.72. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may fall to reach 63.40; if to the upside – start a new correction with the target at 64.06 and then form a new descending structure towards 62.77.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold has reached another downside target. Possibly, today the pair may form a new consolidation range above 1267.83. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 1260.00; if to the upside – start another correction towards 1275.50.
BRENT
Brent is still consolidating around 74.00. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may be corrected to reach 73.00 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 76.50; if to the upside – grow towards 75.05.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
As we can see in the H4 chart, the downtrend continues. GBPUSD has broken the Triangle pattern to the downside; right now, it is trading towards the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1.2889 and 1.2773 respectively. The resistance level is the retracement of 23.6% at 1.3150.
In the H1 chart, the price is falling. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, that’s why the pair is expected to start a new pullback towards the retracements of 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% at 1.2946, 1.2982, and 1.3011 respectively after it reaches 1.2889.
EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”
As we can see in the H4 chart, after being corrected to the upside by 76.0%, EURJPY is trading downwards. The current descending correction is heading towards the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 125.23 and 124.86 respectively. The resistance is the high at 126.81.
In the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected downwards. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, that’s why the pair is expected to start a new rising pullback towards the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 125.61 and 125.84 respectively after it reaches 124.86.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Yesterday USD strengthened against the competition. The EUR/USD quotes lowered by 50 points and reached 1.12000. 1.12300 acts as a mirror resistance. The demand for the USD grew due to positive US real estate reports. The currency pair has a tendency to descend. The investors are waiting for important releases from Germany. You should open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 24.04.2019:
– Business Climate Index (EU) – 11:00 (GMT+3:00);
The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and keeps falling, which points to the bearish mood.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which gives a signal to buy EUR/USD.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.12000, 1.11500
Resistance levels: 1.12300, 1.12500, 1.12650
If the price fixes below 1.12000, expect further descend toward 1.11600-1.11400.
Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.12500-1.12650.
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 1.29812
Open: 1.29369
% chg. over the last day: -0.37
Day’s range: 1.29151 – 1.29431
52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378
GBP/USD is in a bearish mood. The GBP has updated the two-month minimums. The demand for USD has grown after the positive real estate sales report from the US. The Brexit ambiguousness keeps pushing the GBP down. The British parliament has returned from the Easter holidays, the investors are waiting on more information regarding Brexit. Right now the quotes are consolidating aroun 1.29200-1.29500. The trading instrument has a tendency to descend, you should open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 24.04.2019 is calm.
The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which points towards the sale GBP/USD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.29200, 1.29000
Resistance levels: 1.29500, 1.29750, 1.30000
If the price fixes below 1.29200, expect further descend towards 1.29000-1.28700.
Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.29750-1.30000.
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
CAD is weakened against the USD after the decision of the Bank of Canada regarding the key interest rate. During the last two days, the quote grew by 100 points. The trading instrument set the new monthly maximums. The key range is 1.34300-1.34600. The experts are waiting for the Bank of Canada to set the key parameters of monetary policy on the same level. Keep an eye on the comments by the representatives of the Bank. You should open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 24.04.2019:
– Announcment of the new key interest rate (CAD) – 17:00 (GMT+3:00);
The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyers.
The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the positive zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 1.34300, 1.34000, 1.33700
Resistance levels: 1.34600, 1.35000
If the price fixes above 1.34600, expect further growth toward 1.35000.
Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.34000-1.33700.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
Prev Open: 111.919
Open: 111.861
% chg. over the last day: -0.05
Day’s range: 111.749 – 111.983
52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56
USD/JPY remains in a long flat. There is no defined trend. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. The key support and resistance levels are 111.650 and 112.000. USD/JPY has a tendency to descend. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds’ yield and open positions from the key levels.
The Economic News Feed for 24.04.2019 is calm.
The indicators do not provide precise signals, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.
The MACD histogram is in the negative zone which points toward a bearish mood.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which gives a signal to buy USD/JPY.
Trading recommendations
Support levels: 111.650, 111.450, 111.250
Resistance levels: 112.000, 112.150, 112.500
If the price fixes below 111.650, expect further descend toward 111.400-111.200.
Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 112.300-112.500.
The US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies amid the publication of optimistic statistics on the real estate market. Thus, new home sales in the US increased by 4.5% to 692K in March, while experts expected a decline by 3.0% to 647K. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.38%). Financial market participants returned to trading after the Easter holidays. Investors expect preliminary data on US GDP for the first quarter, which will be published on Friday.
During the Asian trading session, weak economic data have been published in Australia. Thus, the consumer price index in Q1 remained unchanged, while investors forecasted growth by 0.2% (q/q). Inflation slowed down from 1.8% to 1.3% (year-on-year). Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia reported that it was ready to raise the issue of lowering interest rates if future economic releases would be pessimistic. Today, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on a key interest rate. As experts expect, the interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.75%. We recommend paying attention to the comments by representatives of the regulator.
On Wednesday, British Treasury Secretary, Philip Hammond, said that he started the search for next Bank of England Governor. Mark Carney took office on July 1, 2013, and will leave office on January 31, 2020.
The “black gold” prices have been declining. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $65.80 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00) data on crude oil inventories will be published in the United States.
Market Indicators
Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.90%), #DIA (+0.53%), #QQQ (+1.27%).
The 10-year US government bonds yield fell again. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.55-2.56%.
The news feed for 2019.04.24:
– German IFO business climate index at 11:00 (GMT+3:00); – Bank of Canada interest rate decision at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).
