InvestMacro

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Crude Oil recently rallied up to the $63 level and failed. This level is a key Fibonacci price level based on our proprietary adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system.  It represents a Fibonacci Long Trigger Level that would suggest that a new bullish price trend could setup if and when the price of Crude Oil rallies and closes above this level.

The fact that Crude Oil rallied above this level early on Monday, May 13, and failed to hold above this level suggests this is a failed price rally and a failed attempt to rotate higher.  The failure of this price move suggests that Crude Oil may fall below current support, near $61, and begin a new downside price leg over the next 10+ trading sessions.

This Daily Crude Oil chart highlights the narrow price range, between $61 and $64.75, where a range of support and resistance levels are found with our proprietary Fibonacci modeling system.  The fact that this failed price rally cleared the $63 level, then fell sharply afterward suggests that support for any upside price rally in Crude Oil is very weak.  We would expect the price to rotate lower and retest the $61 level before breaking this level and moving much lower to find ultimate support.

We continue to attempt to reinforce one basic Fibonacci theory price rule for all of our followers to understand: Price must ALWAYS attempt to establish new price highs or new price lows at ALL TIMES.

We want to continue to push this message out to our followers so they can begin to understand how this price theory rule actually works in real-time application.  This failed attempt to break the Bullish Fibonacci price trigger level is/was an attempt to establish a new price high.  Failure to establish this new price high suggests that price will attempt to establish a new price low.

This weekly Crude Oil chart highlights the key Fibonacci trigger price levels that are located in a very narrow range near $63.25.  The failed move higher, suggests a new price low will be attempted and ultimate support is currently near the $52.25 level.

With the US/China trade new still hitting the news cycles, we expect some extended volatility in the markets as well as currency price fluctuations in an attempt to mitigate the trade/stock market volatility/pricing.  Additionally, we expect commodity price levels to come under continued pressure for two main reasons: A. the US Presidential election cycle continue to draw attention away from economic activity, and B. the global economy is already showing signs of economic and manufacturing weakness.  This US/China trade issue will certainly put more pressure on commodity prices while creating a renewed level of FEAR in the markets.

As we’ve been warning everyone for the past 5+ months – get ready for some really big moves in 2019 and 2020.  This type of market is a skilled traders dream come true.  Big moves, big rotations, and big profits. Also, if you have not read our Recent Gold Bottom article be sure to read that now.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 4 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 4 more silver rounds I’m giving away
​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still consolidating around 1.1212. Possibly, today the pair may fall towards 1.1191 and then start another growth to break 1.1240. After that, the instrument may continue growing with the short-term target at 1.1289.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has almost completed the third descending wave; it has reached the downside border of the Divergent Triangle pattern. Today, the pair may form one more ascending structure to break 1.2990 and then continue growing towards 1.3070. Later, the market may start another decline with the target at 1.2806.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken 1.0075 and may continue growing to reach 1.0103. Today, the pair may fall to return to 1.0075, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may start a new decline to reach 1.0032; if to the upside – resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.0128.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating below 109.70. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 108.96 and then form one more ascending structure to return to 109.70, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend towards 107.50; if to the upside – start another correction with the target at 110.90.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has almost reached its predicted downside target. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate near the lows. If later the price breaks range to the upside, the instrument may be corrected to reach 0.7000; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend to extend the wave towards 0.6808.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating near the downside border of the range. If later the price breaks range to the downside, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 62.77; if to the upside – form one more correctional structure to reach 66.01 and then start another decline towards the above-mentioned target.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the first descending impulse along with the correction. Possibly, today the pair may fall to break 1293.50. The short-term target is at 1289.44. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to return to 1293.50 and then form a new descending structure to reach 1284.30.

BRENT

Brent is still consolidating around 71.30. Today, the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 73.25 and then fall to return to 71.30. If later the price breaks range to the upside, the instrument may resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 76.55; if to the downside – continue the correction towards 69.33.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen. Founder of The Technical Traders joins me to share his thoughts on the recent flow of money into safe haven assets. During the selloff, yesterday in US markets money moved into bonds, gold, and back into the USD. We discuss just how long this run could last and which sectors Chris is the most bullish on.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 3 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 3 more silver rounds I’m giving away
​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the correctional uptrend, GBPUSD is forming a new descending wave to break the low at 1.2865. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the retracement of 61.8% at 1.2774 and then the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.2746 and 1.2673 respectively. The resistance level is the local high 1.3176.

In the H1 chart, the pair is trading to reach the low at 1.2865. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a new pullback. The possible correctional targets may be the retracements of 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% at 1.2940, 1.2984, and 1.3020 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURJPY is still trading downwards and has already reached the retracement of 50.0%. The next target may be the retracement of 61.8% at 121.61. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback. The resistance level is the retracement of 23.6% at 125.25.

In the H1 chart, the convergence made the pair start a new sideways movement, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next targets of this pullback may be the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 124.13 and 124.64 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.12213
• Open: 1.12031
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18
• Day’s range: 1.11984 – 1.12134
• 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

EUR/USD started to descend. The trading instrument updated the local minimums. EUR was under pressure yesterday due to the statements by the Italian vice-premier that the country is ready to violate the EU regulations regarding debt balance in order to increase the employment rates. Right now the quotes are consolidating around 1.12000-1.12200. The financial market participants are waiting for important releases from the US and the EU. The quotes can correct further. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 15.05.2019:

• – Preliminary GDP reports for the first quarter (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Retail sales report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Industrial production volume (US) – 00:00 (GMT+3:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the neutral zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.12000, 1.11800, 1.11650
• Resistance levels: 1.12200, 1.12400, 1.12600

If the price fixes below 1.12000, consider further descend 1.11800-1.11600.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.12400-1.12600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.29547
• Open: 1.29035
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38
• Day’s range: 1.28988 – 1.29181
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.3631

GBP kept losing positions against USD. The quotes fell by more than 50 points. The GBP is under pressure due to the weak labout market report in the UK. Right now GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.29000. 1.29350 acts as a mirror resistance. The trading instrument can descend lower. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 15.05.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the buyes.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line started to cross the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.29000, 1.28500
• Resistance levels: 1.29350, 1.29700, 1.30000

If the price fixes below 1.29000, expect further descend toward 1.28600-1.28400.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.29700-1.30000.

Registration

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.34716
• Open: 1.34629
• % chg. over the last day: -0.12
• Day’s range: 1.34563 – 1.34772
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

USD/CAD has an ambigous technical picture. The instrument is moving sideways. The local support and resistance are 1.34550 and 1.34850. The investors are waiting for the Canadian inflation report. Keep an eye on the oil quotes and open positions from the key levels.

At 15:30 (GMT+3:00) Canada will publish a consumer price index.

The indicators do not provide precise singals, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0. There are no precise signals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 1.34550, 1.34350, 1.34100
• Resistance levels: 1.34850, 1.35000

If the price fixes above 1.34850, expect further growth toward 1.35250-1.35400.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.34300-1.34100.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.287
• Open: 109.620
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33
• Day’s range: 109.485 – 109.702
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

USD/JPY is consolidating around 109.350-109.750. There is no defined trend. The quotes have prospects for recovery after a long fall. The investors are waiting for more info regarding the US/China negotiations. Keep an eye on the US news feed and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 15.05.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide signals, the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0. There are no signals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points towards selling USD/JPY.

• Support levels: 109.350, 109.000
• Resistance levels: 109.750, 110.100, 110.300

If the price fixes above 109.750, expect further correction toward 110.100-110.300.

Alternatively, the qutoes can fall toward 109.000.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar is strengthening against the basket of major currencies amid good news regarding trade relations between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced that he was ready to sign a trade agreement with China. The President said on his Twitter that the United States would make an agreement with China when the time was right, and also emphasized friendly relations with the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping. At the same time, Trump said that there were still minor differences between countries. The dollar index (#DX) closed in the positive zone (+0.19%).

Yesterday, important economic statistics from the UK and the Eurozone were also published. The British pound weakened against the US dollar amid weak labor market data. Thus, the average earnings, including bonuses, increased by only 3.2% in April, while experts expected growth by 3.4%. Initial jobless claims rose by 24.7K, which turned out to be higher than the forecasted value of 24.2K. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8% in March. German ZEW economic sentiment fell by 2.1 in May, although experts expected growth by 5.1.

The euro weakened against the dollar after Deputy Prime Minister of Italy announced that the country was ready to break the European Union’s budget rules on debt levels if necessary. Matteo Salvini, Deputy Prime Minister of Italy, said: “Until we arrive at 5% unemployment, we will spend everything that we should and if someone in Brussels complains, that won’t be our concern.”

Today, during the Asian trading session, weak economic data have been published in China. Thus, industrial production grew by only 5.4% in April instead of 6.5%.

The “black gold” prices show negative dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $61.10 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00) data on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.90%), #DIA (+0.92%), #QQQ (+1.10%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is declining. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.39-2.40%.

– Preliminary data on Eurozone GDP at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– Statistics on US retail sales at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Inflation Report in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari analyst

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Over the past 6+ months, we’ve been covering the price rotations in precious metals very closely.  We’ve issued a number of amazing calls regarding Gold and Silver over the past few months.  Two of the biggest calls we’ve made were the late 2018 research post that suggested Gold would rally to above $1300, then stall.  The other amazing call was our research team’s suggestion that April 21~24 would see Gold setup an Ultimate Base, or what we were calling a “Momentum Base”, near $1250 to $1275.

We issued both of these markets calls many months in advance of these dates/price levels targeting these moves.  In both cases, we issued these market calls well over 60 days prior to the move actually taking place.  The accuracy of these calls can be attributed to our proprietary price modeling solutions as well as the skill and techniques of our research team.  Don’t mind us while we take a few seconds to take credit for some truly amazing precious metals calls over the past 6+ months.

This Weekly Gold chart highlights just about everything we have been suggesting would happen over the past 12+ months.  The rally in Gold from below $1200 to almost $1350 setup an upside price leg that we believe is still just beginning.  The rotation lower, after the February 2019 highs, setup the Momentum Base near April 24 – RIGHT ON TARGET.  Now, the upside price advance that we’ve been predicting should launch Gold well above the $1400 price level appears to be setting up.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system, as well as our Adaptive Fibonacci Price modeling system, have been key elements to unlocking these early calls.  You can read more about our earlier Gold and Silver calls by reading this article: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/adl-predictions-for-price-of-gold/

The next leg higher for Gold will see a price peak near $1450 before another brief sideways/stalling pattern sets up.  After that, our research suggests a rally will quickly drive Gold prices above $1550 (or much higher).

As we’ve been suggesting, Silver will likely lag behind Gold by about 20+ days.  We believe Silver is going to see an incredible upside price move – even bigger than Gold in percentage terms.  Our belief is that Silver will be trading above $26 to $28 per ounce – almost DOUBLE the recent low price level, when Gold will be trading just above $2000 per ounce.  The reason for this is the relationship between the Gold/Silver/US Dollar pricing levels – called the Gold/Silver Ratio.  The chart is below

When the ratio is above 0.80, we consider this to be a “Moderate Peak” zone for Gold.  Where the price of Gold (per ounce) represents more than 80 ounces of Silver.  The ratio of the price of Gold to the price of Silver is a fairly common measure to determine when Silver is very undervalued compared to Gold.  When the ratio typically falls above 0.80, then the price of Silver is very cheap compared to the price of Gold.  When this ration move above 0.90, these levels are Extreme Peaks in the disparity of pricing between Gold and Silver.  These are the areas where both Gold and Silver rally back to restore a ratio level closer to 0.60 or 0.65 (or lower).

This would indicate that the price of Silver will rally much faster than the price of Gold and in order for this ratio to move back to the 0.06 level, Silver would have to rally at a rate of 1.35:1 or 1.45:1 compared to Gold.

Custom Index – chart by TradingView

This Weekly Silver chart highlights the levels we are watching for the upside breakout in Silver to begin – $15.40 or higher and we believe the upside price move in Silver till accelerate well above $18 per ounce very quickly.  Again, the move in Silver will likely lag behind Gold by at least 20+ days.  So now if the time to buy Silver in physical form (or any form) as we prepare for this move.  Once it starts, we can promise you that the rally will be impressive and quick.

Watch how Gold and Oil react over the next few weeks as Fear re-enters the global markets.  Our belief is that Oil will fall while Gold initiates the first leg higher, towards $1400 to $1450 before stalling.  Once this happens, we can be certain a new upside price advance is beginning in Gold and this could be a fairly strong indicator that the markets are weakening and there is increased global fear.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 4 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 4 more silver rounds I’m giving away
​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

In PART I of this report we talked about and showed you the charts of the Hang Seng and DAX index charts and what is likely to unfold. In today’s report here we touch on the US markets. As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts this year, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense.  For example, the 2000 election of George W. Bush prompted a very mild price rotation in 1999~2000.  This was likely because the transition from Clinton to Bush II was not overly contentious.  The 2008 election of Barrack Obama was a moderately contested election cycle and happened at the time of the biggest credit market collapse in modern history – thus, the markets were well on their way lower 12+ months before the elections.  The 2012 election cycle showed moderate price rotation as it was a highly contested election event in the US.  The 2015-16 election event was highly contested as well and the price rotation near this time appears longer and deeper than the 2012 event.

Now, in 2020, we have one of the biggest, most highly contested US election cycles in recent history unfolding and we have already begun to see a price range /rotation over the past 12+ months that suggests we could see even bigger price rotation.  If we add into this mix the US/China trade issues, global market concerns, US political rhetoric, and other issues, we have a recipe for A BIG MOVE setting up.

Our analysis still suggests that we are poised for an attempt at fresh new all-time highs before any massive price rotation takes place (near the upper trend line).  Yet, we believe the downside price rotation is an eventual component of the next 16+ months of the US election cycle and the future price advance that should take place in the near future.  In other words, we believe the markets are setting up for a bigger shake-out throughout this election cycle/trade issue event that will prompt lower prices before the end of 2019.  We do believe the markets will settle and resume an upward trend bias after this downside price rotation – yet we don’t know exactly when that will happen.

To the best of our ability to predict the future, we can state this at the moment.  It appears the end of 2019 will be filled with large price rotation – likely to the downside as trade issues and election/political issues cause a “shock-wave” in the markets.  We believe early 2020 will see a relief rally that may setup a bigger price move throughout the remainder of 2020.  Right now, traders need to be prepared for an incredible increase in volatility and price rotation.  It is very likely that we will see a VIX level above 40 at some point before the end of 2019.  This is a time for skilled traders to get in, get profits and get out.  Position trading over the next 12+ months will be very difficult.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 18% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have 5 left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

I only have 5 more silver rounds I’m giving away
​​​​​​​so upgrade or join now before its too late!

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

By Tomasz Wiśniewski, Chief analyst at Alpari Research & Analysis

Source: Alpari