InvestMacro

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.12017
• Open: 1.11724
• % chg. over the last day: -0.26
• Day’s range: 1.11706 – 1.11842
• 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

EUR/USD started to descend and updated the local minimums. The demand for USD grew after the release of positive reports and growth of the 10-year US Treasury bonds yield. The investors are waiting for more data regarding the trading agreement between the US and China. The local support and resistance levels are 1.11650 and 1.11850. EUR has prospects for further descend

The Economic News Feed for 17.05.2019:

• – Consumer Price Index (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Expectation Index by the University of Michigan (EU) – 17:00 (GMT+3:00);

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which points toward selling GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points towards a bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.11650, 1.11500, 1.11200
• Resistance levels: 1.11850, 1.12000, 1.12200

If the price fixes below 1.11650, expect further descend toward 1.11500-1.11200.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.12000-1.12200.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.28413
• Open: 1.27919
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42
• Day’s range: 1.27760 – 1.27978
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.3631

GBP/USD keeps showing a stable trend. Yesterday GBP updated the local minimums once more. Since the beginning of the month, it lost around 2% of its value. The investors are worried about Brexit, especially since Theresa May is rumoured to leave the office in the summer. Keep an eye on this issue and open positions from the key levels of 1.27700-1.28250. The quotes have prospects for further descend.

The Economic News Feed for 17.05.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points towards the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points towards the bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.27700, 1.27300, 1.27000
• Resistance levels: 1.28250, 1.28800, 1.29250

If the price fixes below 1.27700, expect further descend toward 1.27300-1.27000.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.28600-1.29000.

Registration

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.34369
• Open: 1.34598
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19
• Day’s range: 1.34568 – 1.34814
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The last couple of sessions on the currency pair have been very active. At the same time, there is no defined trend. Right now the local support and resistance levels are 1.34550 and 1.34800. The demand for USD is back. Keep an eye on the oil quotes and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 17.05.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line which gives a strong signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which gives a strong signal to buy USD/CAD.

• Support levels: 1.34550, 1.34300, 1.34100
• Resistance levels: 1.34800, 1.35000

If the price fixes above 1.34800, expect further growth toward 1.35000-1.35200.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.34300-1.34100.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.584
• Open: 109.834
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27
• Day’s range: 109.542 – 110.033
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

USD/JPY remains ambiguous. The trading instrument is moving sideways. Right now the quotes are consolidating around 109.800-110.000 with 109.500 acting as a local support. The quotes can recover further. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds, you should open positions from the key levels.

During the Asian trading sessions, Japan published weak reports on the business activity.

The indicators do not provide signals, the price has crossed 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator started to leave the oversold zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

• Support levels: 109.500, 109.200, 109.000
• Resistance levels: 109.800, 110.000, 110.300

If the price fixes above 109.800, expect further correction toward 110.200-110.400.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 109.200-109.000.

by JustForex

by JustForex

Yesterday, the greenback strengthened against the basket of world currencies. The dollar index (#DX) set new monthly highs and closed the trading session in the green zone (+0.31%). Demand for the US dollar increased after the publication of optimistic economic reports. In April, the number of building permits and the volume of housing starts increased by 0.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Over the past week, the number of initial jobless claims fell to 212K compared to market expectations of 220K. In May, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index accelerated from 8.5 to 16.6. The growth in the US government bonds yield supports the US currency.

The British pound is still under pressure. Since the beginning of this month, the pound has weakened against the US dollar by more than 1.9%. Financial market participants are concerned that Prime Minister Theresa May will not be able to approve her Brexit deal again and may soon face a leadership problem. Today, investors will assess statistics on inflation in the Eurozone. We also recommend following up-to-date information regarding trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

Oil quotes are consolidating after a sharp growth the day before. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $63.00 per barrel. We recommend paying attention to the US Baker Hughes oil rig count at 20:00 (GMT+3:00).

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the major US stock indices closed in the positive zone: #SPY (+0.93%), #DIA (+0.87%), #QQQ (+1.00%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is recovering. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.39-2.40%.

– Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari analyst

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout.  We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part.  It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes.  Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.

The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility.  That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain.  After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.

This Monthly TRAN ADL chart shows two ADL DNA Marker data points.  The first data point, April 2018, consisted of 12 unique ADL price instances and suggests a moderate upside price bias may continue until near the end of July or early August 2019.  August 2019 appears to be a “price anomaly” setup with a target price level near 10,000 for that month.  Thus, August 2019, or any time +/- 30 days from that month, could be very volatile.  The second data point originates from June 2018 and consists of 4 unique ADL price instances.  The lack of ADL price instances (4 vs 12) is not as important as the predicted outcome of this DNA marker.  ADL instances with small numbers of matching instances tend to be unique price data – something that is not seen in price that often and somewhat rare.  This ADL data point is predicting a moderate upside price bias until June/July 2019, then the DNA marker is telling us that a downward price bias should start and that these future predictions do not have a strong probable outcome.  This means August through November 2019 could be very volatile and result in unexpected price actions.

This next chart is a Weekly TRAN ADL chart that suggests 2 or 3 more weeks of moderate upside price bias before a big decline in prices headed into June 2019.  If we follow the DASH lines on this chart and count the weeks going forward, it appears June 2019 will result in a moderate price decline toward the recent lows – possibly a bit lower.  Then it appears the TRAN will stall near 10,200 – possibly moving a bit higher near the middle/end of July.  After that, the ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that the TRAN will break down below the 10,200 level and potentially head much lower – towards the 9,600.

The timing of this is interesting because it suggests the current US/China trade issues will not result in more price decline for the next 30+ days.  Yes, we’ll like to see more price rotation, but the potential for a massive price decline over this span of time is rather muted.  We may see a retest of the 10,200 level near Mid-June, but price should find support at that time and recover towards the 10,400 to 10,500 level near early July.  Mid to End July looks very weak – where price may break aggressively lower, below 10,200 and attempt to target the 9,600 level.

This next chart is a Weekly TRAN chart showing our Adaptive Fibonacci price modeling system.  The Fibonacci price modeling system is one of our standard analysis tools.  This utility is suggesting that price weakness may set up a Descending Flag formation over the next few weeks/months.  This type of pattern suggests that a breakout move will result after the apex is reached.  The YELLOW trend line on this chart may become a downside price target if our ADL predictions are correct and the TRAN price breaks down toward the 9,600 level or lower.

Take another look at the end of the first, Monthly ADL chart.  See those YELLOW upside ADL arrows on the right side of the chart?  Those are the current ADL predictions for October, November, December 2019.  This prediction suggests that the Apex Breakout move at the end of the Descending Flag formation will be an upside price breakout sometime near the end of 2019.

Be prepared for another increase in volatility in Early June and Early/Mid July.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting a breakdown in price will happen near these dates and this downside move should result in increased VIX/Volatility when the breakdown happens.

This does not appear to be the BIG CRASH that everyone is talking about.  It appears to be a normal price pattern setup as weakness settles in and the TRAN appears to retest the 10,000 level (support) with the potential of moving slightly below this level.

We’ve just highlighted what our predictive modeling system is currently proposing will happen over the next 6+ months in the TRAN.  If you know anything about the TRAN, you should be able to translate this into a trading road-map for the next 6+ months in the US markets.  What is the value of having something like the ADL – being able to look into the future and see what is likely to happen 4 to 6+ months into the future?  Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we deploy these proprietary tools for our members to help them find and execute better trades.

This is proving to be an incredible trading year for traders who follow our trade alerts newsletter.

For active swing traders, you are going to love our daily trading analysis. On May 1st we talked about the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” and that is exactly what is happening now right on queue. In fact, we closed out our SDS position on Thursday for a quick 3.9% profit and our other new trade started Thursday is up 20% already.

Second, my birthday is only three days away and I think its time I open the doors for a once a year opportunity for everyone to get a gift that could have some considerable value in the future.

Right now I am going to give away and shipping out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. I only have a few left as they are going fast so be sure to upgrade your membership to a longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans, and you will receive:

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SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!

Happy May Everyone!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

By George Prior

Rich Brits and wealthy international investors fear a Jeremy Corbyn-led government more than Brexit, with an increasing number considering moving their wealth overseas.

This is the assessment of Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations with more than $12bn under advisement.

Mr Green says: “Since the beginning of the year a large and growing number of clients are telling our advisers that for their wealth they fear the damaging impact of a Jeremy Corbyn-led government more than Brexit.

“Polls suggest that the ruling Conservative party, led by Theresa May, is haemorrhaging support due to the ongoing Brexit chaos and deadlock.  This drives up the possibility of another general election in the UK before 2022 and that opposition party Labour, with Mr Corbyn at the helm, could sweep into power.”

He continues: “High-net-worth individuals in Britain and wealthy international investors with UK assets and business know that they will be hit by Mr Corbyn’s tax hikes on wealth, income and inheritance.

“As such, more and more of them are seeking advice on established, legitimate overseas opportunities to create, build, and importantly, protect their wealth.”

Mr Green adds: “Lumping more tax on the rich doesn’t work because these people, typically, have the resources to move to lower tax jurisdictions if the tax burden in the UK becomes too great.  They are internationally mobile.

“Should they emigrate – and according to our recent conversations a high number very well could – government finances will suffer considerably because they contribute a disproportionately large amount to the state’s coffers. They prop-up ‘the System.’  In addition, these individuals are usually wealth and job creators.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Should the Brexit turmoil continue and the Conservatives keep losing ground to Corbyn’s Labour, it can be reasonably expected that a considerable amount of our clients will move their assets outside of the UK within the next few months.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. The pair has tested the channel’s upside border and formed Shooting Star reversal pattern; right now, it is moving downwards and may reach 1291.00. Also, we can see another reversal pattern, Hammer, which may indicate that the correction is over and the price may trade towards 1307.00 without reaching the support level to continue the uptrend.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has been trading downwards for quite a long time. It has formed Shooting Star pattern close to the channel’s upside border, which resulted in a rebound and a new descending impulse. Right now, it may be assumed that the instrument may trade to reach its key target at 0.6534.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6911; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.6925 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6825. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6960. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7035.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6548; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the upside border of the cloud at 0.6560 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6465. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.6580. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6665.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3433; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the downside border of the cloud at 1.3460 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.3315. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 1.3505. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3615. After breaking the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fixing below 1.3405, the price may continue moving downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.12031
• Open: 1.12017
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04
• Day’s range: 1.12015 – 1.12110
• 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

EUR/USD is moving sideways, the technical picture is ambiguous. The support and resistance are at 1.12000 and 1.12200. EUR is supported by the statements that the US may not introduce fees on the import cars in the next six months. The market participants are waiting for important releases from the US. Keep in mind that the real data may differ from the forecasted.

The Economic News Feed for 16.05.2019:

• – Real Estate Market Stats (US) – 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – PMI from Philadelphia’s Federal Reserve (EU) – 15:30 (GMT+3:00);

The indicators do not provide precise signals, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.12000, 1.11800, 1.11650
• Resistance levels: 1.12200, 1.12400, 1.12600

If the price fixes below 1.12000, expect further descend toward 1.11800-1.11600.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.12400-1.12600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.29035
• Open: 1.28413
• % chg. over the last day: -0.47
• Day’s range: 1.28209 – 1.28518
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.3631

GBP/USD keeps showing a negative trend. Yesterday GBP reached the 3-monthly minimum regarding the USD. GBP is under pressure due to the growing expectations of failure to reach any consensus between Theresa May and the opposing parties. The quotes are testing the 1.28250-1.28800 range. The trading instrument has prospects for further descend. Keep an eye on the US news feed.

The Economic News Feed for 16.05.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points to the bearish mood.

• Support levels: 1.28250, 1.27600
• Resistance levels: 1.28800, 1.29250, 1.29700

If the price fixes below 1.28250, expect further descend toward 1.27600-1.27400.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward the round 1.29000.

Registration

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.34629
• Open: 1.34369
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14
• Day’s range: 1.34266 – 1.34504
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

USD/CAD started to descend. The trading instrument set the new local minimums. The quotes are testing support at 1.34250 with 1.34550 acting as a mirror resistance. The market participants are waiting for important reports from the US. USD/CAD has prospects for further descend, you should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 16.05.2019 is calm.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line which gives a strong signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 1.34250, 1.34100, 1.33800
• Resistance levels: 1.34550, 1.34850, 1.35000

If the price fixes below 1.34250, expect further descend toward 1.34000-1.33800.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.34700-1.34850.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.620
• Open: 109.584
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13
• Day’s range: 109.335 – 109.591
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

USD/JPY keeps trading in a flat. There is no defined trend, the local support and resistance are at 109.350 and 109.750. The trading instrument has further recovery prospects. The market participants are waiting for important releases from the US. Keep an eye on the US Treasury bonds’ yield and open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 16.05.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

• Support levels: 109.350, 109.000
• Resistance levels: 109.750, 110.100, 110.300

If the price fixes above 109.750, expect further correction toward 110.100-110.300.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward the round 109.000.

by JustForex

by JustForex

Yesterday, currency majors showed multidirectional dynamics. At the moment, the dollar index (#DX) is consolidating near monthly highs. The euro was supported by reports that Donald Trump could delay his decision on imposing tariffs on imported cars and parts by up to six months. According to Eurostat, the estimate of eurozone GDP growth in the first quarter met market expectations and counted to 0.4% (q/q).

Greenback was under pressure after a weak report on US retail sales. In April, retail sales declined by 0.2%. The core retail sales index slowed down to 0.1% compared with a forecasted value of 0.7%. Today, during the Asian trading session, ambiguous statistics on the labor market were published in Australia. At the moment, financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of important economic releases from the US. These statistics may affect the dynamics of currency majors in the short term. We also recommend following up-to-date information regarding trade negotiations between the US and China.

Oil quotes show positive dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing $62.35 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.59%), #DIA (+0.43%), #QQQ (+1.41%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is declining. Currently, the figure is at 2.36-2.37%.

– Statistics on the real estate market in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the Bank of Canada Governor.

by JustForex

By Matthew Anthony, Alpari analyst