Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 219

Tensions in the Gulf not helping oil

By Alpari.com

In theory, attacks on those tankers and actually any tensions in the Gulf, should give oil a bullish impulse. It works like this: any negative event that could decrease supply should increases prices. But these one-time events can be treated only as pure speculation and at the end of the day, what really counts is the global demand for oil and rising supplies are showing us that demand is slowing down. OPEC may be doing their thing (limiting their supply) but if demand is not cooperating (by going up), the price will not surge.

Oil D1Technically, the biggest problems started at the end of May. In the last two trading days of the last month, oil managed to break the lower line of the bearish wedge pattern and the horizontal support at 58 USD/bbl. The first half of June is not any better as the price managed to reach the horizontal support at 51.3 USD/bbl. As you can see, the 4 on front is near. Demand is trying to avoid that by creating the double bottom formation. This pattern will give a buy signal only when the price breaks its neckline, i.e. the blue area around 55 USD/oz. As long as we stay below here, sentiment is negative and it seems that sellers have bigger chances of success.

As for now, it seems that the best option is to wait. Buyers can wait for the situation mentioned above and sellers can wait for the breakout of the 51.3 USD/bbl. support. If we consider the current trend, then the second option seems more probable.

By Alpari.com

 

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 17.06.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached the predicted short-term target of the third descending wave. Today, the pair may be corrected to reach 1.1230 or even 1.1260 and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1.1180.

EURUSD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has reached the short-term of the third descending wave. Possibly, today the pair may start a new correction towards 1.2600 or even 1.2640. Later, the market may resume trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.2530.

GBPUSD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken 0.9957; right now, it is still trading upwards inside the third ascending wave. Today, the pair may test this level from above. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 1.0056.

USDCHF_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has broken 108.52 upwards; right now, it is still forming the third ascending wave with the target at 109.16. Later, the market may start another decline to reach 108.52.

USDJPY_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still trading downwards with the target at 0.6830. Possibly, today the pair may be corrected towards 0.6898 or even 0.6925. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 0.6830.

AUDUSD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached the predicted downside target. Today, the pair may start another correction towards 64.37 or even 64.69. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 64.00.

USDRUB_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the first descending impulse; right now, it is being corrected towards 1348.75. After that, the instrument may form the second impulse to reach the predicted short-term target at 1323.25.

GOLD_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent has broken 62.11 and may continue growing with the first target at 63.22. Later, the market may be corrected towards 61.60 and then form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 66.40.

BRENT_Технический анализ
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 17.06.2019 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has broken the previous significant high and may continue the ascending tendency in the short-term. Right now, the pair is being corrected after the divergence; the support is at 1319.85. The next upside targets are short-term and mid-term ones: the former are inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1358.90 and 1365.75 respectively, while the latter are inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1377.10 and 1396.30 respectively.

GOLD_H4_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows more detailed structure of the current descending correction, which has already reached 23.6% fibo. The next downside targets are 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1324.30 and 1313.85 respectively.

GOLD_H1_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, USDCHF is forming a new correction within the long-term downtrend. After completing the correction, the pair may resume falling towards 38.2% fibo at 0.9836. The next downside target may be 50.0% fibo at 0.9712.

USDCHF_H4_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the H1 chart, the rising pullback has reached 38.2% fibo. The next upside target may be 50.0% fibo at 1.0040. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD indicating that the current growth may be over soon. If the instrument breaks the low at 0.9854, the downtrend will continue.

USDCHF_H1_Анализ по Фибоначчи
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Gold Gets Ready For New Jump

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Gold prices stopped rising early in the third week of June. On Monday June 17th, the Troy ounce is trading at 1340.10 USD with the last week’s high being at 1362.20.

The key trigger for such impressive dynamics in Gold is the weak USD. After a lot of discussions on the market about a possible rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, the USD got under significant pressure.

A bit later, there were enough confirmations of this scenario from a lot of different monetary policymakers. This week, the Fed is going to have a meeting, but no one is expecting the regulator to cut the rate right now – it’s not the right time or place. However, it’s highly likely that the Fed may provide more details, thus putting even more pressure on the American currency and helping Gold to continue its momentum.

At the same time, physical demand for Gold remains pretty smooth without any surges, but this factor provides no fundamental support to Gold.

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading inside a wide consolidation range; it is forming Expanding Triangle on the top of the rising wave. By now, it has finished the descending impulse towards 1335.85. Today, the pair may form a new consolidation range near the lows to start a correction to the upside with the target at 1348.70. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 1323.15. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator, as its signal line is falling towards 0. After breaking this level, the market may boost its decline.

In the H1 chart, XAUUSD is forming a descending wave; it has already completed the first impulse. Possibly, the pair may be corrected towards 1348.75 and then form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 1323.25. The key target is at 1316.50. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator, as its signal line is moving to the downside. After breaking 50, the instrument may fall faster.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

 

 

Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

Pay close attention to the “Total Monthly Sum” and the monthly NEG (negative) and POS (positive) values.  These values show the range of price activity over the past 20 years normalized for each month. Obviously, we can’t expect the markets to adhere to these normalized values, but we can gain insight from the data retrieved by this data mining tool.

To help you understand this data we’ll focus some brief analysis on the month of June, below. June has a total monthly NEG value of -1009 and a total monthly POS value of 1410.  Additionally, the NEG value is comprised of 9 months of data and the POS value is composed of 11 months of data.  Therefore, the relationship between NEG and POS months is roughly 1:1 – or about equal. Overall, the positive months outweigh the negative months by 401 points. The largest monthly positive and negative values are 492 and -189. This suggests the positive price aspect of these mined data points is about 2.3:1 respectively.

The conclusion we derive from this date is that June is moderately more positive based on historical price data then negative.  This data is derived from the NQ. Therefore the expectations of a positive 300 to 400 point move in the NQ for June would be in line with historical expectations.  Anything beyond that range should be considered a price anomaly. These types of price anomalies to happen fairly often but are difficult to predict.

As of today, the NQ has already moved upward by over 400 points since the end of May. This price advance equaling our expected data range would suggest that the upward price move in the NQ may be very close to ending.

=====[ June Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 492 NEG -189.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1009 across 9 bars – Avg = -112.11
– Total Monthly POS : 1410 across 11 bars – Avg = 128.18
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 401 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 6
===================================================

As you scan through the rest of these data mining results, pay very close attention to the largest monthly ranges as well as the overall price bias described by the total monthly NEG and POS values.  For example, in July the monthly values are more narrow in range. Yet the total monthly NEG and POS values depict a broader range for price.

Additionally, the POS bars (13) compared to the NEG bars (6) describes a vastly different historical price relevance.  The possibility of an upside price bias in July is much stronger than what we determined four June.  The 13:6 ratio of upside to downside price bars in July converts into a nearly 2:1 upside price expectation versus a 1:1 ratio in June.  Because of this, we can determine that July will likely result in a positive upside price move of at least 150 to 250 points in the NQ before exhausting.

=====[ July Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 319.75 NEG -200
– Total Monthly NEG : -656 across 6 bars – Avg = -109.33
– Total Monthly POS : 1654 across 13 bars – Avg = 127.23
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 998 across 19 bars

Analysis for the month = 7
===================================================

Our data mining tool suggests that August may be much more volatile than July. The larger monthly total sum suggests a possible breakout move to the upside. The increases in total monthly values suggest volatility will also increase. Overall the combined July and August data points suggest rotation may end with a big move to the upside sometime in late August before a correction.

=====[ August Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 477 NEG -313.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -835.5 across 8 bars – Avg = -104.44
– Total Monthly POS : 1702.5 across 12 bars – Avg = 141.88
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 867 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 8
===================================================

September data points show an immediate reversal to the upside price bias. The data reporting from our data mining tool flips to the negative side fairly strong. Overall expectations are roughly 1:1 that a downside price move will dominate for September.

Our data mining utility suggests a downside price move of between -450 and -550 points.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know that we are predicting a moderately large downside reversal beginning in late August or September. It is our belief that the US stock markets will rotate downwards after a peak in price in August. We believe this downside move could last well into November, much like the downside move in 2018.

=====[ September Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 229 NEG -473
– Total Monthly NEG : -1460.25 across 10 bars – Avg = -146.03
– Total Monthly POS : 903.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 90.35
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : -556.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 9
===================================================

Should our expectations play out in the market, the downside price move in September, October and possibly November, would result in a unique price anomaly setup near this price bottom.

As you can see from the data mining results, below, the last quarter (3 months) of the year typically results in upside price bias. Therefore, any deep downside price move after our expected peak in August will set up a very unique price anomaly pattern where skilled traders should be able to capture an incredible upside price run near the end of 2019.

=====[ October Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 480.25 NEG -679.75
– Total Monthly NEG : -1564.5 across 7 bars – Avg = -223.50
– Total Monthly POS : 2320.25 across 13 bars – Avg = 178.48
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 755.75 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 10
===================================================

=====[ November Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 316.5 NEG -768
– Total Monthly NEG : -1169 across 6 bars – Avg = -194.83
– Total Monthly POS : 1509 across 14 bars – Avg = 107.79
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 340 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 11
===================================================

Pay very close attention to the fact that December can be fairly mixed in terms of overall price bias and upside or downside price expectation.  With a 1:1 (equal price weighting) for both positive and negative price results and a monthly sum of only about 100 points, we would expect December to be moderately congested and flat.

=====[ December Monthly Analysis ]========================

– Largest Monthly POS : 782 NEG -616.25
– Total Monthly NEG : -1179.5 across 10 bars – Avg = -117.95
– Total Monthly POS : 1291.5 across 10 bars – Avg = 129.15
——————————————–
– Total Monthly Sum : 112 across 20 bars

Analysis for the month = 12
===================================================

And there you have it, our Father’s Day gift to all of you. These results from our proprietary data mining utility are providing you with a detailed map of what to expect in the NQ going forward through December 2019. This is only one aspect of our research team’s resources and unique capabilities that assist us in understanding what price will be doing in the future. There are many other utilities and trading indicator tools that we use to help confirm and validate our analysis.

We’ve included a chart of the S&P E-mini futures contract with a yellow line drawn across our predicted price modeling expectations starting from the end of 2017 until now. Pay very close attention to our expected price levels and the market price levels as time progressed forward. As you become more skilled in understanding how this data can be used to benefit your trading and deliver results, you’ll learn why our research team relies on our proprietary modeling tools and software so heavily.

We thought we might share a bit of specialized data with you on this Father’s Day so that you could use some of our proprietary information in your own research and analysis going forward.

Please remember, price action dictates everything. Even though we can model and data mine incredible information months or years into the future, everything comes down to what price is doing right now. If it confirms our analysis, then fantastic – our research may be right on the money.  If the price moves beyond our expectations and research, then we have to reevaluate our expectations in correlation with the data that we have to determine if we need to adjust our expectations going forward.

My point is, yes we can forecast, yes we have been correctly more times than not, but you cannot just go out and place trades based on this analysis alone because our analysis will change with the market.

To be blatantly honest, we don’t really care what the market does or when. We FOLLOW the market and trade on its coat tales, we don’t jump in front of it and guess/hope it will reverse as we are predicting.

Some of our articles/forecasts we share simply don’t happen and we get lots of flack from free followers of these articles. But what most followers fail to understand is that even when our predictions are DEAD WRONG, we and our subscribers make money in most cases. Again, we don’t trade the forecasts we just let them help guide us, and we trade with the dominant trend.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

I am going to give away and ship out silver rounds to anyone who buys a 1-year, or 2-year subscription to my Wealth Trading Newsletter. You can upgrade to this longer-term subscription or if you are new, join one of these two plans listed below, and you will receive:

1-Year Subscription Gets One 1oz Silver Round FREE
(Could be worth hundreds of dollars)

2-Year Subscription Gets TWO 1oz Silver Rounds FREE
(Could be worth a lot in the future)

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND
GET YOUR FREE SILVER ROUNDS!
Free Shipping!

Happy Fathers Day Guys!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

[VIDEO]The Tesla Opportunity Without Owning Tesla

In our hunt to find sectors and assets early in the cycle, few assets have been in a more protracted bear market than nickel. Nickel is part of the overall commodities complex, which has been in a multi-year bear market since 2008.  In the 2000s, the demand that drove the bull market in commodities, came from China as its real estate and infrastructure boom took hold. But what will be the main catalyst that drives the next commodities boom? In our view it is the electric vehicle boom, that will be the catalyst for higher nickel prices. Nickel fits the fundamental story of being cheap relative to other sectors and commodities, it has the story driven by the electric vehicle boom. But does it have the cycle multiplier that we at First Macro Capital seek out, to provide those multi-year structural dynamics for massive asymmetric returns?

Tesla has stated there is a massive shortage of battery metals coming.

Predicted vs Actual

Let’s put this in context with electric vehicle sales, that are starting to hit the exponential curve over the next 2-4 years in terms of sales demand, and it will only accelerate as oil prices rise during the commodity cycle.

 

There are estimates that nickel demand will increase by 10X, by 2023, and 19X by 2028, but that is at 100% utilization, and everything working correctly. Even if these estimates of demand for nickel and cobalt are HALF right, nickel would see demand rise by 5X, and cobalt by 2X in only 4 years. We are now only 6 years away from 2023, with demand expected to grow from the electric vehicle sector by more than 20%/year for nickel and cobalt.

In October 2017 there were only 17 Li-ion battery mega-factories under construction, now in 2019, there are more than 70 mega-factories that are currently being constructed. All of the battery plants are going to be consuming a lot of nickel and cobalt.  There are two battery methods being deployed, and whatever is chosen by the manufactures, will there be enough nickel to go around?

THE NICKEL SHORTAGE

For the past three years, there have been deficits for global refined nickel as the surplus has come way down after the past boom, to a deficit situation, and, it will only accelerate as the electric vehicle boom accelerates. There is the potential that the nickel deficit will overshoot to the downside as no one truly knows what the demand will be for electric vehicles. We could see lower nickel prices in the near-term if there is a global slowdown as nickel demand is tied to the health of the global economy, but after the slowdown, industrial metals like nickel perform strongly.

MAJORS ARE PAYING ATTENTION

We even recently had BHP withdraw selling its nickel assets, putting BHP in position in what it sees, is accelerating demand for nickel coming from the electric vehicles.

SUPPLY CRUNCH FOR NICKEL IS COMING

But new mines are not coming online fast enough for the accelerating nickel demand growth. Vale estimates there needs to be a new Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay and PTVI built every year from 2024-30. Even if they are half right, new nickel mines will have to be brought online presenting wonderful opportunities.

But Where is Nickel Today?

The nickel price is down more than 70% from its high set in 2007, but up more than 50% from the low set in 2016.

Nickel has been a disaster for more than 10 years, but with the price action is getting ready to turn, with the fundamentals and the story matching up, but the turning point for nickel price does not appear just yet.

Conclusion

  • Nickel which peaked in 2008, with the commodity complex, and bottomed with the commodity index, is setting higher lows, highlighting the worst is over for nickel.
  • As global EV production rises along the exponential curve, and if demand for nickel is half right about nickel demand from EVs, nickel will see demand rise more than 5X by 2023, and 9X by 2028.W
  • A supply crunch is expected to occur, as the number of super mines like Sudbury, Voisey’s Bay, and PTVI to be built every year during 2024-30.
  • While the fundamental and story make are clearly there for nickel, with the EV picture, the cycle momentum has not yet entered a clear buy in our opinion, currently reflected in the price action of nickel. A global slowdown could knock down nickel prices in the near-term but over the next 2-3 years we look to see if nickel prices accelerate higher and momentum comes.

Paul Farrugia, BCom. Paul is the President & CEO of First Macro Capital. He helps his clients take advantage of cycle opportunities across all sectors and asset classes, for the long-term. He provides a checklist to find winning gold and silver mining producer stocks, to take advantage of the commodity cycle.

Disclaimer:

The information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is not designed to meet your financial situation – we are not investment advisors, nor do we give personalized investment advice. The opinions expressed herein are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. It may become outdated, and there is no obligation to update any such information.

The DAX30 CFD about to enter bearish seasonal window – but the Fed…

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events June 17, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we enter the start of the trading week the economic calendar is quite thin, so our focus will be on the technical and seasonal aspects of the DAX30 CFD.

From a purely technical perspective, the DAX30 CFD can be considered range-bound on an hourly time-frame between 12,050 and 12,220 points. The bearish tendency into the last weekly close gives the neutral picture a bearish touch, and a sustainable break below 12,050 points would likely be followed by a dynamic test of the region around 12,000 points, a drop below activates 11,900/930 points.

This bearish touch is underlined by a bearish seasonal window beginning today: over the last 21 years, the DAX lost in 16, or 76% of the cases 187 points between the June 17-25. In the other 5 years, the DAX gained on average only 48 points with a maximum drawdown of only 144 points.

But with the Fed rate decision coming on Wednesday and current rising speculation of a equity-friendly rate cut – which is probably also the reason for the dynamic break to new yearly highs in Gold last Friday – we consider anticipating a break lower in the DAX30 CFD to be too aggressive, and favour a short entry only if we get to see a clear, clean, sustainable break below 12,050 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between May 27, 2019, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD daily chart (between March 5, 2018, to June 14, 2019). Accessed: June 14, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

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By Admiral Markets

 

EURUSD: trading between the 112th and 135th degrees

By Alpari.com

Previous:

The majors all closed down against the US dollar last week. The biggest loser was the New Zealand dollar (-2.60%), followed by the Australian dollar (-1.84%), the pound (-1.13%), the Swiss franc (-1.10%), the euro (-1.10%), the Canadian dollar (-1.07%), and the yen (-0.37%).

The EURUSD pair dropped from 1.1289 to 1.1203 on Friday. Sales began in the European session after a breakout of the 1.1265 support. The dollar shot up following the release of US data. The retail sales and industrial production indices exceeded expectations, tempering fears of an economic slowdown.

Industrial production rose by 0.4% MoM against a forecasted rise of 0.2% and a previous reading of -0.4% (revised from -0.5%).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report.
  • 15:30 Canada: foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Apr), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Apr).
  • 15:30 US: NY Empire State manufacturing index (Jun).
  • 17:00 US: NAHB housing market index (Jun).
  • 20:00 Eurozone: ECB’s President Draghi speech.
  • 21:30 Canada: BoC’s Schembri speech.
  • 23:00 USL net long-term TIC flows (Apr).

EURUSD H1Current situation:

The dollar was expected to remain weakened ahead of the Fed meeting, although positive data showed that it’s too early to count the US economy out. US10Y bond yields surged in response, while the major pairs continued downwards.

Today is Monday. Since trading on Friday closed with a steep drop, today I’m looking for movements against Friday’s. The pair is trading between the 112th and 135th degrees, which gives us more reason to believe that we will get a correction. There’s a support at 1.1200. I expect to see the pair recover to 1.1245 by 21:00 EET. The balance line should be at this level by this time.

Could we drop further? Yes, we could. The 135th degree is at 1.185. We could easily drop as far as this to give us a bullish divergence on AO and CCI indicators. Pay no attention to the stochastic going against the trend; we still need additional confirmation.

By Alpari.com

 

ADL Predicts Expected Range Of The NASDAQ Before Breakout

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our advanced predictive modeling system is suggesting a defined range for the NQ over the next 30 to 60+ days before a bigger breakout move is expected.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know we have been predicting the NQ to move in a sideways pennant formation.  Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the NQ will stay within a defined price range over the next 30 to 60 days.

The upside price bias we are predicting is based on the ADL modeling systems suggestion that an upward price bias is inherent in the markets. You’ll see from the charts below that two different predictive results are driving our interpretation currently.

One result is predicting an upward price bias over the next 2 to 4 months whereas the second result is predicting a sideways price result over the same period of time.

Our conclusion is that the NQ will likely trade in a sideways pennant formation over this span of time before a breakout price move happens.

Our research continues to suggest a price peak may happen in August or September of 2019. We believe this peak aligns with our cycle research as well as aligns with our suggested pennant formation pattern. We believe the peak that forms near August or September will likely result in new all-time price highs. That breakout to new all-time highs will likely be the end of the move higher for now.   After our expected price peak sometime near September, we believe the markets will turn lower with a possible move of -10% to -15% or more.

This two-week bar chart of the NQ highlights our ADL predictive modeling results. You should be able to see the yellow dashed lines on this chart showing what we believe will be price support above 6800.  we’ve also drawn lines on the chart highlighting where the pennant formation price rotation will likely take place. Over the next few weeks, we expect the NQ price rotation to stay between 6800 and 7500.  This range presents an incredible opportunity for traders to trade this rotation.

This NQ monthly chart highlights to ADL predictive modeling results showing two separate ADL predictions. Our researchers use these results to create a combined consensus expectation for the markets. This particular NQ monthly chart suggests there is a strong upward price bias over the next 2 to 3 months. Combining this upward bias with our expectations of price support near 6800, we conclude that a sideways price rotation should be expected with a fairly volatile price range.

Please take notice of the upper yellow dashed lines of 8000. These ADL predictive levels suggest that the NQ will likely attempt a move above 8000 sometime in August or September of 2019, then move dramatically lower as price attempts to revert back to the 7500 level – or lower.

It is critically important for traders to understand the future price expectations of the NQ and the US stock market. Having knowledge of future price activity, like our ADL predictive modeling can produce, allows traders to plan for and execute strategic trading strategies.

Once the peak in August or September is reached, skilled traders should begin to prepare for a bigger downside price move which may last many months. Initially, our expectation is a move back to 7500. Our longer-term research and cycle analysis suggest prices may move much lower – possibly towards 6000 or lower.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Happy Trading!
Chris Vermeulen

 

 

King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

One of the biggest movers of the day on Friday was the US dollar.  The US stock market appeared very weak prior to the opening bell and precious metals, especially gold, appeared to be rocketing higher.  Almost right from the open, the markets washed out the fear and changed direction. The US dollar did the same thing.

This renewed strength in the US dollar continues to baffle foreign investors and foreign governments as they continue to try to support their economies and currencies against a stronger and more agile US economy and currency. Even as the US dollar strength is frustrating many investors, it is also attempting to keep a lid on traditional safe havens such as precious metals.

This further complicates many foreign nations because their gold reserves are not appreciating at the same rate that their currencies are devaluing. Couple that with capital outflows, consumer protectionism, waning economic outputs, and the need to protect local currencies to avoid populist panic, and King Dollar seems to be riding high.

A friend of ours and foreign currency trader suggested we read the article below today.

Does China have enough US dollars to survive the US trade war?

We’ve authored many articles about the US dollar over the past few months.  We believe the strength in the US dollar will continue and that a support level above $92 is likely to continue to support the price for some time. That being said, the current price rotation near $96.50 provides a recent low price rotation level that could turn into future support after recent highs near $98.40 are broken.

Many times you’ve probably read our comments about a “capital shift” and how this shifting capital across the planet will be driving future investment in the US and other foreign markets.  At this point in time, it’s almost like a dog chasing its tail.  The more support the US dollar receives, the more pressure there is for foreign markets to support their currencies and economies. The weaker foreign economies become and foreign currencies devalue, the more demand for US dollars increases to help offset local weakness. It starting to become a vicious cycle.

We believe the defined price channel between the two magenta colored lines will continue to dominate US dollar price activity until price breaks through either the upper or lower range of this price channel. The current support near $96.50, will likely turn into a new price floor once price breaks above $99.

There are a number of factors that could ease the upward pricing pressure in the US dollar.  First, increased economic output and activity in foreign markets illustrating economic growth and prosperity would likely ease the capital shift into the US stock market and US dollar. Once foreign markets begin to act as though real opportunity exists over an extended period of time, then the dominance of the US dollar may begin to weaken.

Additionally, suitable trade deals, such as we witnessed between the US and Mexico recently, will help to alleviate currency pricing pressures on foreign currencies. This strength in foreign currencies presents an opportunity for global investors to take advantage of pricing gains.

Stronger foreign currency valuations and economic output will help to ease the US dollar dominance eventually.  Until that happens, as traders we need to be aware of the pricing issues related to the capital shift that is taking place, the pricing pressures on precious metals, and the likelihood that foreign investors will continue to pile into US equities while King Dollar is dominating.

Pay very close attention to foreign market weakness and news of banking issues or government bailouts of foreign banks. Much like the US credit crisis in 2008/2009, bank failures and extended credit risk exposure can lead to waterfall events.  This would be our biggest fear for the global economy if foreign governments and banking institutions are not properly prepared for extended devaluation periods. If things really started to crumble overseas we could see gold and the dollar move up together, it has happened before in times of crisis.

We’ll keep you informed as we see things transpire. In the meantime, King Dollar rides high end of the sunset and foreign governments/nations will continue to attempt to support their economies and currencies. Eventually, the fear factor will push precious metals broadly higher.

We have a good pulse on the major markets and can profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these super cycles are going to last years. These super cycles starting to take place will go into 2020 and beyond which we lay out in our new PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

Happy Fathers Day Guys!
Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.