Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 184

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.08.19

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.11050
  • Open: 1.10921
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.15
  • Day’s range: 1.10876 – 1.11012
  • 52 wk range: 1.1034 – 1.1817

The EUR/USD currency pair had become stable after a rather significant fall last week. The trading instrument is currently consolidating. A unidirectional trend is not observed. Investors expect additional drivers. The local support and resistance levels are 1.10700 and 1.11000, respectively. Today we expect important statistics on the Eurozone’s economy. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The News Feed on 19.08.2019:
    • – Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00).
EUR/USD

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
      • Support levels: 1.10700, 1.10500
      • Resistance levels: 1.11000, 1.11300, 1.11650

If the price fixes below 1.10700, a further fall in the EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.10500-1.10200.

An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.11300-1.11500.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.20819
  • Open: 1.21500
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.53
  • Day’s range: 1.21401 – 1.21725
  • 52 wk range: 1.2015 – 1.3385

The bullish sentiment prevails on the GBP/USD currency pair. The British pound is currently testing key highs. The local support and resistance levels are 1.21400 and 1.21750, respectively. A trading instrument has the potential for further recovery after a continuous fall. Financial market participants continue to monitor the situation concerning Brexit. Positions should be opened from key levels.

Today, the publication of important economic releases from the UK is not planned.

GBP/USD

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which signals the bullish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.21400, 1.21000, 1.20750
  • Resistance levels: 1.21750, 1.22100

If the price fixes above 1.21750, further correction of the GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.22000-1.22300.

An alternative could be a decrease in the GBP/USD currency pair to a round level of 1.21000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.33122
  • Open: 1.32694
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.29
  • Day’s range: 1.32602 – 1.33770
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

On Friday, the USD/CAD currency pair moved away from local highs. The fall in quotes exceeded 45 points. The loonie is currently consolidating. The key range is 1.32600-1.32900. The positive dynamics of oil quotes support the Canadian dollar. At the same time, we do not exclude the further growth of USD/CAD quotes. Today, the news feed is calm enough. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The publication of important economic reports from Canada is not planned.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.32600, 1.32150, 1.31850
  • Resistance levels: 1.32900, 1.33250, 1.33450

If the price fixes above the level of 1.32900, further growth of the USD/CAD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.33200-1.33500.

An alternative could be a fall in the USD/CAD quotes to 1.32300-1.32150.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 106.056
  • Open: 106.250
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.25
  • Day’s range: 106.241 – 106.473
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The technical pattern is still ambiguous on the USD/JPY currency pair. A trading instrument is consolidating. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are testing the resistance level of 106.500. The 106.100 mark is the nearest support. The USD/JPY currency pair has the potential for further growth. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of the US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

During the Asian trading session, mixed data on Japan’s trade balance have been published.

USD/JPY

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 106.100, 105.750, 105.500
  • Resistance levels: 106.500, 107.000

If the price fixes above 106.500, further growth of the USD/JPY currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 107.000.

An alternative could be a fall in the USD/JPY quotes to 105.750-105.500.

by JustForex

DAX30 CFD with a focus on 11,550 into the new week

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events August 19, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we start the trading week, we want to focus on the DAX30 CFD. While the economic docket is quite thin, and the main focus among market participants certainly lies with the intensifying trade dispute between the USA and China, the eurozone’s inflation will at least taken with elevated interest.

This is especially true after the latest comments from Finnish ECB member Rehn ,who said in an interview with the Wallstreet Journal last Thursday that “it is important that we (the ECB) come up with a significant and impactful policy package in September”.

With that in mind, any print which comes in below expectations could result in a bullish stint, at least short-term, since market participants could consider such a low inflation reading as an intensifying sign of the ECB delivering such a significant stimulus package (and surely vice versa: a higher than expected print could trigger bearish impulses in the DAX30 CFD).

Technically, the main focus in the DAX30 CFD can be found around 11,550 points on the upside where a break higher would trigger further bullish respectively corrective momentum, activating 11,850 points as a potential target.

On the other hand, failing to recapture 11,550 could trigger another bearish stint down to the pre-weekly lows around 11,250 points, especially if we drop back below 11,400 points:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between July 30, 2019, to August 16, 2019). Accessed: August 16, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between May 18, 2018, to August 16, 2019). Accessed: August 16, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

Discover the world’s #1 multi-asset platform

Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!

Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
  9. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets

The US Dollar Is Consolidating

by JustForex

The US dollar is changing slightly against a basket of major currencies. Today, on August 19, licenses for US companies for business cooperation with Huawei expire. However, US President Donald Trump has not yet decided whether to renew the license or not. US-China trade relations are still tense. On Friday, The National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China said that China would implement a program to stimulate incomings growth in order to avoid a slowdown in economic growth. The US dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session with a slight increase (+0.19%).

Also, optimistic economic data from the US were published on Friday. So, the number of building permits issued in the US rose to 1,336M in July, while experts expected 1,270M. The US currency was supported by the fact that the 10-year US government bonds yield finally moved away from local lows on Friday.

The euro is still under pressure after weak economic reports published last week. Today, we expect the publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone.

The “black gold” prices show positive dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil futures are testing the $55.25 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

On Friday, the bullish sentiment was observed in the US stock markets: #SPY (+1.48%), #DIA (+0.98%), #QQQ (+1.61%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been growing. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.60-1.61%.

The news feed for 2019.08.19:

– Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

EURUSD: euro recovers to 1.1105

By Alpari.com

Previous:

Most of the majors declined against the US dollar last week. The biggest loser was the euro. The only currency to gain ground was the pound. Movements on the EURGBP cross favoured the pound, giving us a divergence between some pairs with a positive correlation.

On Friday the 16th of August, the EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1065. Following disappointing US data, the pair recovered to 1.1107. At the latest reading, the Michigan consumer sentiment index in August dropped to 92.1 points, against the final revised value of 98.4 for July (forecast: 98.5).

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also made his mark on the dollar when he said that the regulator would most likely have to lower interest rates to combat the economic slowdown.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:00 Eurozone: current account (Jun).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Jul).

EURUSD H1Current situation:

Trading in today’s Asian session has been relatively quiet if we discount oil prices. Brent oil has jumped 1.4% to 59.35 USD per barrel. The increased appetite for risk was triggered by comments by Donald Trump and Larry Kudlow that they don’t believe the US economy will go into recession. China’s national bank has announced measures designed to allow free-floating exchange rates through regulating interest rates.

The euro has recovered to 1.1105. We expect the pair to rise to the 45th degree drawn from the 1.1065 low. The euro came under pressure on Friday after a drop on the EURGBP cross. The drop was halted by the 135th degree. Now it would be good to see a rise on the euro. Following the price drop within a complex wave structure, the minimum target for the euro now is the 67th degree.

Traders will now be turning their attention towards the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and commentary coming from the Jackson Hole symposium on Thursday and Friday.

By Alpari.com

Euro Looks Weak and May Plummet More

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

The European currency got under more significant pressure last week and reminded market players that European problems may be much more complicated than meets the eye.

Right now, the major currency pair is trading close to three weeks’ lows but may test the bottom at 1.1025 reached on August 1st.

The Euro might have plunged ever more, but was surprisingly “saved” by Der Spiegel, a German weekly news magazine, which wrote that the German government was ready to settle for the budget deficit if the country’s economy started falling into a recession. This was pretty unexpected and unusual because Angela Merkel and the German Federal Ministry of Finance have been famous for their tough stance against any economic incentives related to budget and tax policies. Market players were really surprised, thus helping the European currency to recover a little bit.

Before that, Germany reported on the GDP, which lost 0.1% q/q in the second quarter of 2019. This was quite negative for the GDP of the Euro Area, which added only 0.2% q/q over the same period of time after being much better in the quarter before.

On H4 EURUSD has formed a figure of the downtrend continuation. The centre of the structure is explicit around 1.1130. The minimum of the figure at 1.1090 is broken away. There is a potential for the continuation of the third declining wave to 1.1010. The goal is local. After that, a correction to 1.1070 may happen, followed by a decline to 1.0980.

Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Its signal line is trading below 0, strictly for a decline, remaining in the histogram zone, all this suggesting a
further downtrend.

On H1, EURUSD is trading in the second half of the third wave of decline. At the moment, the market has completed an impulse downwards and its correction. It may then decline to 1.1070. Upon breaking this level top-down, there will appear a potential for reaching 1.1033. After that a correction to 1.1070, followed by a decline to 1.0980, is not excluded. The goal is main.

The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic. Its signal line is trading strictly for a decline. Upon a breakaway of 50 the trend may become stronger.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.08.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD )

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached another downside target at 1.1110; right now, it is consolidating above this level. According to the main scenario, the price may break this range to the downside and continue trading inside the downtrend to reach 1.1070. Later, the market may start a new consolidation range.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has completed the correction at 1.2130; right now, it is still moving downwards. Possibly, the pair may fall to break 1.2040 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1940.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken 0.9766 and may continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 0.9830. After that, the instrument may start another correction to reach 0.9770.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is consolidating around 106.08. Possibly, the pair may choose an alternative scenario to form a new descending structure to reach 105.40. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to start another growth to break 106.97 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 108.40.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is moving upwards to break 0.6808. Later, the market may continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 0.6878.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After forming a new consolidation range around 65.65, USDRUB has broken the range to the upside and reached 66.55. Today, the pair may fall to test 65.55 from above and then form one more ascending structure to reach 66.16. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 65.25.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has reached the upside target at 1.3333; right now, it is consolidating around 1.3300. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the instrument may continue trading inside the uptrend to reach the key target at 1.3434; if to the downside – start a new correction towards 1.3222 and then resume trading upwards.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is forming a new consolidation range around 1516.16. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 1525.90, the instrument may resume growing to reach 1534.75; if to the downside at 1515.00 – start another correction with the target at 1507.40 and then resume trading upwards.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 58.50. According to the main scenario, the price may break the range to the upside and grow with the target at 60.90. However, the pair may choose an alternative scenario to update the low at 57.57 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 63.63.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD has completed the ascending wave at 10333.00; right now, it is moving downwards to reach 9888.00. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 10165.00 and then start a new decline with the target at 9410.00.

BTCUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 16.08.2019 (BITCOIN, ETHEREUM)

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after testing 23.6% fibo at 11350.00, BTCUSD failed to continue this rising impulse and started a new descending wave towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 8600.00 and 7350.00 respectively.

BTCUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H4 chart, the pair is about to complete the short-term pullback, which may be followed by a new descending impulse to reach 50.0% fibo at 8600.00. The resistance is at 11350.00.

BITCOIN
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after testing 50.0% and 61.8% fibo, ETHUSD started forming a new descending impulse; the target is 76.0% fibo at 163.20. At the same time, there is a convergence, which may indicate a possible pullback. The resistance is 50.0% fibo at 231.50.

ETHEREUM
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H4 chart, the instrument is quickly falling and getting closer to 76.0% fibo at 163.20.

ETHUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.08.16

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.11383
  • Open: 1.11050
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.26
  • Day’s range: 1.10957 – 1.11122
  • 52 wk range: 1.1034 – 1.1817

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to show negative dynamics. The trading instrument has updated local lows again. Positive economic releases from the US supported the greenback. At the moment, the EUR/USD quotes are testing a round level of 1.11000. The 1.11300 mark is already a “mirror” resistance. The euro has the potential to further decline. We recommend monitoring the up-to-date information regarding the trade conflict between the US and China. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The News Feed on 16.08.2019:
    • – Statistics on the real estate market in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).
EUR/USD

Indicators point to the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates the bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
      • Support levels: 1.11000, 1.10700
      • Resistance levels: 1.11300, 1.11650, 1.11900

If the price fixes below the level of 1.11000, a further fall in the EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.10700-1.10500.

An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.11500-1.11700.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.20548
  • Open: 1.20819
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.24
  • Day’s range: 1.20741 – 1.21211
  • 52 wk range: 1.2015 – 1.3385

The GBP/USD currency pair has been recovering after a continuous consolidation. The British pound has updated local highs. Positive retail sales data in the UK support the British pound. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.20750 and 1.21200, respectively. The GBP/USD quotes have the potential for further correction. We recommend monitoring the current information on the Brexit issue. Positions should be opened from key levels.

Today, the publication of important economic releases from the UK is not planned.

GBP/USD

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which signals the bullish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.20750, 1.20450, 1.20150
  • Resistance levels: 1.21200, 1.21500, 1.21850

If the price fixes above 1.21200, further correction of GBP/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.21500-1.21700.

An alternative could be a decrease in the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.20500-1.20300.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.33143
  • Open: 1.33122
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.01
  • Day’s range: 1.32990 – 1.33249
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The USD/CAD currency pair has become stable after continuous rally since the beginning of this week. The loonie is currently consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.32900 and 1.33250, respectively. The demand for greenback is still high. A trading instrument has the potential for further growth. Today, we recommend paying attention to statistics on the real estate market in the US, as well as the dynamics of oil prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram has reached the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has been crossing the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.32900, 1.32500, 1.32150
  • Resistance levels: 1.33250, 1.33450, 1.33700

If the price fixes above 1.33250, further growth of the USD/CAD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.33500-1.33700.

An alternative could be a fall in the USD/CAD quotes to 1.32650-1.32500.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 105.882
  • Open: 106.056
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.17
  • Day’s range: 106.056 – 106.272
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the USD/JPY currency pair. The trading instrument is in a sideways trend. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 105.750 and 106.250, respectively. The USD/JPY quotes have the potential for further correction. Today we recommend paying attention to economic reports from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is quite calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 105.750, 105.500, 105.100
  • Resistance levels: 106.250, 106.750, 107.000

If the price fixes above 106.250, further correction of the USD/JPY currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 106.750-107.000.

An alternative could be a fall in the USD/JPY quotes to 105.500-105.200.

by JustForex

Precious Metals Reaching Initial Targets Prior to Aug 19 – Now What’s Next?

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

We have heard from so many of our followers and members regarding our precious metals calls and research articles.  Additionally, many of our members and followers have recently asked us about our August 19 breakdown prediction for the US/Global markets.  In this research post, we’ll highlight some of our expectations for the precious metals and how that relates to the potential August 19 breakdown expectations.

October 5 ADL predictive modeling forecast chart

Our incredible October 5 ADL predictive modeling chart, below, highlights just how powerful some of our proprietary price modeling tools really are.  Imagine having the ability to look 10+ months into the future to be able to attempt to understand exactly what price may attempt to do and to be able to plan and prepare for these moves well ahead of the “setup”.  So far, our analysis of the precious metals has been spot on and we’ll continue to try to update our members and followers as this movement continues.

RECENT TRADE WITH 3X Gold ETF:

The ADL system hs played a large roll in our short term trading result for August already having closed 24.16% profit this month – See Here

This original prediction based on our advanced Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system suggests price should be near or above $1600 by August/September 2019 (the higher yellow dash lines within the blue rectangle).  If these predictions continue to hold up as valid and true, then we would expect the price of Gold to target these levels as a “leg 1 move” then consolidate a bit before attempting to move higher.

Weekly Gold chart highlights our expectations

This Weekly Gold chart highlights our expectations for the current and future price rotations in Gold.  As you can see, we are still expecting a $1600 initial upside price target (shown as $1595) and a brief price rotation after that level is reached.  The reality of this move is that Gold could rally well above $1600 before stalling, but we believe the $1595 level is a safe call for this move and we believe the rotation will be fairly short-lived before the price continues to rally further.

One interesting point to make is that the $1595 level is well above the highest (RED) Fibonacci projected price target.  These types of moves by price can happen in extended trending.  It happens that the Fibonacci price modeling system predicted these ranges based on historical price rotations and recent trends.  Yet when something happens in the markets that result in trends extending beyond the predicted levels, it suggests that a larger, more volatile, the price trend has established which could push price levels to 1.6x or 2x the precious target level ranges.  This would suggest $1700 to $1850 as a new upside target level (eventually).

As Silver starts to move higher, finally breaking above historical resistance and really starting to rally as Gold has taken off, one very interesting price setup happened this week – a VERY LARGE RANGE BAR.  Silver has historically shown a bar range volatility of near or below $0.40.  On August 13, Silver set up a total high-to-low bar range of just over $1.00.  This massive increase in volatility suggests that Silver could be setting up for a very explosive price move in the near future.  If volatility continues to stay near 1.5x to 2.5x historical levels, Silver could rally $6 to $10 in a very short 14 to 30 days.

What does this mean for our precious metals trade and for our members and followers?  It means that the metals are “loading up on fuel” at the moment and preparing for something BIG.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

How is this aligning with our August 19 breakdown prediction and how should traders plan for these moves and protect their assets?  Right now, if you have not already set up and entered your precious metals trades, you should consider scaling into trades soon and/or waiting for this rotation that we are suggesting is only about 5+ days away.  Silver is still an incredible opportunity for traders and Gold should stall near $1595, then likely rotate a bit lower towards $1525 before bottoming.  Therefore, any entry below $1540 in Gold or below $17 in Silver is still a solid entry-level.

Now, before we carry on with our research, we want to highlight the fact that many things are aligning with our August 19 global market breakdown prediction.  We’ll go into more detail about this in Part II of this research article and attempt to detail our expectations, but we want to warn you that we believe extended risks will start to become more evident on or after August 19, 2019.  This is not a warning that should prompt you to immediately start selling off everything you own and setting up for a massive short trade in the markets.  What it means is that August 19 will likely be the start of an extended “rounded top” or other types of extended top formation that will provide a more clear projection of targets and opportunities as it plays out.

You’ll see more in Part II of this research post (delivered to you just in time before the weekend)

MORE UNIQUE ANALYSIS ON THE BEAR MARKET IN STOCKS AND METALS, MINERS, AND S&P 500

I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

Detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused on gold miners and the SP 500 index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

We posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

JOIN ME AND TRADE WITH A PROVEN STRATEGY TODAY!

Chris Vermeulen

 

 

Demand for the US Dollar Is Recovering. Washington-Beijing Trade Conflict Is Still in the Spotlight

by JustForex

The US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies after the publication of optimistic economic data from the US. So, the core retail sales index rose by 1.0% in July, while experts expected growth by only 0.4%. Retail sales also increased by 0.7% in July instead of 0.3%. The US dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session in the positive zone (+0.19%).

Statements by US President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of resolving the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing supported the US currency. The President believes that the trade war with China will not last long. Trump recalled that the meeting of representatives of the United States and China should still be held in September in Washington. It was noted that in addition to meetings, countries were negotiating by phone, and according to Trump, the negotiations were more than good.

The “black gold” prices show positive dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $55.25 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock markets: #SPY (+0.26%), #DIA (+0.50%), #QQQ (-0.11%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield continues to decline. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.55-1.56%.

The news feed for 2019.08.16:

– Statistics on the real estate market in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex