Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 131

US-China Relations Have Worsened

by JustForex

On Friday, the US dollar showed a variety of trends. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday in the green zone (-0.09%). Traders are still focused on US-China trade negotiations. Earlier it was reported that China and the United States were close to concluding an interim trade agreement. However, the situation concerning Hong Kong has complicated relations between countries. China imposed sanctions on the American non-governmental organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) in response to the recent D. Trump’s actions. Therefore, negotiations on a trade agreement were suspended.

Today, during the Asian trading session, positive economic data have been published in China, which have supported the Chinese yuan. So, the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI index was published, which counted to 51.8 in November, while experts expected a value of 51.4. Also, today, important economic data are expected from the Eurozone, the UK and the US. In general, the week will be full of releases of economic statistics from the UK, US and Canada.

The “black gold” prices have been declining. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $56.50 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

On Friday, there was the bearish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.37%), #DIA (-0.34%), #QQQ (-0.46%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been growing. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.83-1.84%.

The Economic News Feed for 02.12.2019:
  • – German manufacturing PMI at 10:55 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Manufacturing PMI in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • – ISM manufacturing PMI at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

Elevated volatility in the DAX30 CFD into the start of the week?

By Admiral Markets

Economic Event

Source: Economic Events December 2, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While the last week of trading primarily saw subdued volatility in the DAX30 CFD, this will likely change as we start this trading week.

Technically, the German index continues to trade sideways between 13,100 and 13,300 points. Due to its proximity to the 13,300 region, it is generally more likely to get to see a break on the upside, with a first potential target being seen around 13,370 / 13,400 points.

A break higher could be initiated by the upcoming US ISM manufacturing figures, which are due at 3 pm GMT. A better-than-expected dataset could initially dampen recession concerns for the world’s largest economy. A lower-than-expected data set could, on the other hand, fuel speculation that a more dovish approach by the Fed at the policy meeting on December 11 would be more likely.
Or to put it another way: the DAX could be off to a win-win in the start of the week.

On the flip side, however, there is also the danger of a renewed escalation in the US-Chinese trade conflict, after US President Trump signed a Legislation Bill on developments in Hong Kong during the night from last Wednesday to Thursday.

The resulting support for Hong Kong and clear US position against China could spark a response from the Chinese that China could for the time being fail the current Phase 1 trade talks and put the DAX under pressure.

This would then put the region around 13,100 into focus and below the area around 13,040 / 050 points at the center of the action.

DAX30 CFD- Hourly Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between November 12, 2019, to November 29, 2019). Accessed: November 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

DAX30 CFD - Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between August 23, 2018, to November 29, 2019). Accessed: November 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.

Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets

EURUSD: growth expected to reach the 45th degree

By Alpari.com

On Friday the 29th of November, the euro was up at the end of trading. It was a short day in the USA, and therefore the volume of trading operations on the market was relatively low. In the thin market, the EURUSD pair set its new weekly low at 1.0981, as well as a new daily high of 1.1028. There were no significant news items published to explain the rebound.

Day’s news (GMT +3):

  • 11:55 Germany: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov).
  • 12:30 UK: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov).
  • 17:00 Eurozone: ECB’s President Lagarde speech.
  • 18:00 USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov).

031211

Current situation:

Markets opened with growth amid the release of strong Chinese statistics on Saturday. The official index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in China in November rose to 50.2 from 49.3 points. In the morning, China Ccaixin/IHS Markit PMI came out. The index rose to 51.8 against October’s figure of 51.7.

Growth was limited because it was reported that ongoing negotiations aimed at reaching a US-China trade agreement had been suspended due to the passing of the United States Democracy and Human Rights Act in Hong Kong. This was announced on Sunday by the information portal Axios, citing its sources in the Washington administration.

Today, traders’ attention is aimed at the upcoming  UK general election, which will take place in two weeks. At 17:00 (Moscow time), a speech will be made by the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde. In the US, the ISM in the manufacturing sector will be released (November).

According to the forecast, we are expecting a correction to Friday’s growth to 1.1002. The fall may stop at 1.1010. There, most likely, the balance line will provide support. Since Friday, buyers were able to exceed the highs of 1.1013 and 1.1018, and it could be interesting to consider pullbacks to enter long positions. The initial target is the 45th degree – 1.1033. This week is full of important events: decisions on the interest rate of the RBA and the Bank of Canada, a change in Australia’s GDP, as well as payrolls (the US labour market).

By Alpari.com

EUR/USD Slowly Growing

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in December, the major currency pair is trading calmly – everything is getting back to normal after a pause on the occasion of Thanksgiving Day in the USA. On Monday, December 2nd, EUR/USD is mainly trading around 1.1020.

Investors are still focused on the US-China trade talks, a pause in which may last for a long time. it is already known that Beijing hasn’t taken any countermeasures in response to the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act” passed by the USA earlier. It means that China decided not to exacerbate relations with its trade partner and was very serious about continuing negotiations through diplomatic channels.

However, November has gone by and now it’s already December, but there is still no new information about this. There is a possibility that the trade agreement or at least its first phase won’t be signed this year. This, in its turn, may later increase the market volatility and count against the Euro.

On the last Friday of November, EUR/USD managed to update its previous low, but then the news made the pair start a pretty strong rising correction. In the H4 chart, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate a new tendency to the upside. However, to confirm the tendency reverse from descending to ascending, the price must break the resistance line of the current trend at 1.1050. If it happens, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1100. Still, an opposite scenario is also possible: the instrument may rebound from the resistance line and fall to reach the support level at 1.0940.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after finishing the rising impulse, EUR/USD is forming a correction in the form of Triangle. In this case, the resistance line is at 1.1023. If the price breaks this level, it may continue growing towards the next resistance level. A convergence on the Stochastic Oscillator confirms the new-rising-tendency scenario.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

100% Measured Moves May Signal A Top

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

One type of Fibonacci price structure we use to attempt to measure price trends and identify potential tops/bottoms is the “100% Measured Move” structure.  This is a price structure where a previous price move is almost perfectly replicated in a subsequent price trend after a brief period of retracement or price correction.  These types of patterns happen all the time in various forms across multitudes of symbols to create very solid trading signals for those that are capable of identifying trends and opportunities using this technique. If you want my daily analysis and trade ideas, be sure to get my updates by joining my free trend signals email list.

The first thing we look for is a strong price trend or the initially confirmed reversal of a price trend.  We find that these trending price ranges and initial “impulse trends” tend to prompt 100% measured moves fairly accurately.  The explosive middle-trend is where one can’t assume any type of Fibonacci 100% measured move will happen.  Those explosive moves in a trend that tend to happen in the middle of a price trend are what we call the “expansion wave” of a trend and will typically be 160% or more the size of the initial impulse trend.

These trade setups we call the “100% measured moves” are naturally occurring price rotations that skilled traders can use to identify strong trade potential setups.  They are more common in rotating markets where a moderate trend bias is in place (for example in the current YM or ES chart).

First, let’s take a look at this YM Weekly Chart to highlight the most recent 100% Measured Move.  The original upside price move between June 2019 and July 2019 resulted in a 2787 point price rally that replicated between August 2019 and November 2019 – after a brief price retracement.  Currently, price is rotating near the peak of this 100% measured price move near 27,875 while attempting to set up a new price trend.

In this ES Weekly example chart, we see a 100% Measured Move that originated in June 2019 and ended in July 2019 – just like on the YM chart.  Although the completion of the 100% measured move didn’t originate until the low that formed before price rallied to take out the previous high near 3029.50.  Remember, the other facets of Fibonacci price theory are also still at play in the markets while these 100% Measured Moves are taking place.  Thus, rotation between a previous price peak and valley (without establishing any new price highs or new price low) are considered “price rotation” – not trending.  The 100% Measured Move that did take place recently did complete a full 100% advancement and is now stalling near the 3040 level peak.

If you are not familiar with some of my forecasting and trading strategies for trading the S&P 500, or my gold trading signals be sure to click those links to see some pretty interesting charts like these.

SP500 Index Trend Identification and Trade Signal System

Cycle and Price Prediction System

Concluding Thoughts:

Once these 100% measured moves complete, price usually attempts to stall or wash out a bit before attempting to establish a new price trend.  At this point, given the examples we’ve illustrated, we believe the US market will enter a period of rotation and moderate volatility as these 100% measured moves have completed the upside price advance for now.  Some level of price rotation after these 100% measured moves have completed will potentially allow for another attempt at a future 100% price advance after setting up a new price leg.

These techniques don’t always work, we recently got stopped out on a TVIX (vix/volatility trade for a loss) but we just close out our thirst natural gas trade for a quick 7% profit. The previous UGAZ trade netted 20%, and the one before that was 7.95%.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, PLUS get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 29.11.2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDRUB, USDCAD, GOLD, BRENT, BTCUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still consolidating around 1.1000. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range towards 1.1018 and then return to 1.1000. After breaking this level to the downside, the instrument may continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.0984.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is consolidating around 1.2909. Today, the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 1.2920 and then start a new decline towards 1.2889.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating around 0.9988. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 0.9974 and then resume growing to return to 0.9988. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue the correction with the target at 0.9932.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 109.44. Possibly, today the pair may fall to break 109.32 and then start a new correction with the short-term target at 109.05.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is consolidating above 0.6760. If the price breaks the descending channel at 0.6780, the market may start a new correction with the first target at 0.6792.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has reached its upside target; right now, it is correcting towards 63.89. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach 64.04 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 63.61.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is still consolidating above 1.3276. Possibly, today the pair may break this level to the downside and continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.3254.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is consolidating below 1458.15. Today, the pair may choose an alternative scenario to break this level to the upside and start a new correction towards 1462.50. However, the main scenario implies that the price may continue falling with the target at 1444.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent continues consolidating below 63.77. Today, the pair may fall to reach 63.16 and then start another growth towards 64.40. If later the price breaks this level to the upside, the market may continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 65.50.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 7487.00. Possibly, today the pair may continue the correction towards 7333.00 and then start a new growth to break 7645.00ю Later, the market may continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 7980.00.

BITCOIN

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 29.11.2019 (GOLD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending tendency continues. By now, XAUUSD has completed several reversal patterns, including Hammer, close to the support level. In general, the situation hasn’t changed much. At the moment, the pair is still reversing and may later grow towards 1475.50. At the same time, we shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, which implies that the instrument may continue falling towards 1445.50.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the ascending channel continues. After forming several reversal patterns, including Doji, near the support level, NZDUSD has reversed; right now, it is moving sideways in the middle of the channel. After that, the market may complete another slight correction, which may later be followed by further growth to reach 0.6455. At the same time, one shouldn’t exclude an opposite scenario, according to which the instrument may fall towards 0.6385 and test the channel’s downside border.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Investors Expect Counter Measures from China

by JustForex

The US dollar is being traded without significant changes against a basket of currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index (#DX) closed in the green zone (+0.01%). Relations between China and the US are still in the spotlight after D. Trump signed two bills supporting anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. So, US President Donald Trump signed into law on human rights and democracy, which provides for the annual verification of the autonomous status of Hong Kong. Also, Hong Kong and the United States will now have a special relationship regime. Special status implies that Hong Kong will not be subject to the sanctions and duties that are imposed on China.

In response to the steps by US President, China promised to take strict measures. However, so far, no steps have been made. The conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China is likely to be at risk. China has largely adhered to a policy of “strategic calm.”

The “black gold” prices have risen slightly. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $58.00 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the US stock markets were closed due to Thanksgiving.

The 10-year US government bonds yield has not changed. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.76-1.77%.

The Economic News Feed for 29.11.2019:
  • – German unemployment change at 10:55 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Canada GDP at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2019.11.29

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.09992
  • Open: 1.10122
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.01
  • Day’s range: 1.10069 – 1.10136
  • 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

The EUR/USD currency pair is still in sideways movement. Financial market volatility was reduced due to Thanksgiving in the United States. The technical pattern is ambiguous. Negotiations between China and the United States remain in the spotlight. US President Donald Trump has signed two bills that support anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. Investors are now awaiting China’s response. Currently, the key support and resistance levels are 1.100000 and 1.10200, respectively. Open positions from these marks.

The Economic News Feed for 29.11.2019:

  • – German Unemployment Change (GER) – 10:55 (GMT+2:00);
  • – Consumer Price Index (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
EUR/USD

The indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is trading between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark, which also does not give signals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crosses the %D line. There are no signals.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.10000, 1.09850
  • Resistance levels: 1.10200, 1.10400, 1.10650

If the price consolidates below the round level of 1.10000, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.09700-1.09600.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.10400-1.10650.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.28542
  • Open: 1.29092
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.08
  • Day’s range: 1.29072 – 1.29175
  • 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3385

The GBP/USD currency pair retreated from local highs. At the moment, quotes are moving in flat. The technical pattern is ambiguous. Market participants are waiting for new information regarding the Brexit process. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.29000 and 1.29350, respectively. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

The Economic News Feed for 29.11.2019 is calm.

GBP/USD

Indicators do not provide accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0, which also does not give signals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.29000, 1.28700, 1.28400
  • Resistance levels: 1.29350, 1.29700

If the price consolidates above 1.29350, expect the quotes to rise toward 1.29700-1.29850.

Alternatively, the quotes could fix below 1.29000 and descend toward 1.28700-1.28400.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.32821
  • Open: 1.32805
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.00
  • Day’s range: 1.32804 – 1.32872
  • 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The technical pattern on the USD/CAD currency pair is still ambiguous. Looney is in lateral movement. Local levels of support and resistance are still: 1.32800 and 1.33000, respectively. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. Today will be published important economic statistics in Canada. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 29.11.2019:

  • – GDP Report (CAD) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
USD/CAD

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark, which also does not give signals.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

  • Support levels: 1.32800, 1.32650, 1.32400
  • Resistance levels: 1.33000, 1.33200, 1.33350

If the price consolidates above 1.33000, expect the quotes to rise toward 1.33200-1.33400.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.32600-1.32400.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.549
  • Open: 109.512
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.04
  • Day’s range: 109.484 – 109.556
  • 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The USD/JPY currency pair is being traded in a flat. Investors expect additional drivers. We recommend you to keep track of current information regarding trade negotiations between the United States and China. The key support and resistance levels are 109.400 and 109.600, respectively. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 29.11.2019 is calm.

USD/JPY

Indicators point to the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.400, 109.200, 109.050
  • Resistance levels: 109.600, 110.000

If the price consolidates above 109.600, expect further growth toward 110.000.

Alternatively, the quotes could fall below 109.400 and eventually decline to 109.200-109.000.

by JustForex

Black Friday and subdued volatility: calm before the storm for the USD/JPY?

By Admiral Markets

Economic Event

Source: Economic Events November 29, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While we shouldn’t expect any moments of high volatility today during shortened US trading hours (also in bonds/yields), we will project what is to come in the USD/JPY over the next week of trading.

With the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and Non-Manufacturing (Wednesday), ADP (also on Wednesday) and Non-Farm-Payrolls (Friday), the main focus will stay on the developments in 10-year US-Treasury yields which has driven the price action in the currency pair this month.

After the US data releases over the last few weeks showed solid prints, and with market participants expecting no moves from the Fed (according to the Fed Watch Tool) at the meeting on December 11, we remain sceptical if the USD/JPY has a serious chance to stabilise significantly above 109.00.

The reason for this is that if data exceeds expectations, it could result in short-term bullish stints which are then aggressively sold off again, leaving a test of the region around 108.00 over the next week of trading a topic.

In our opinion, the same is true with underperforming data, which could result in rising expectations of a more dovish stance from the Fed, which could result in a drop in US yields since such an expectation would add to the bearish yield outlook with the Fed expanding its balance sheet at a faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3.

Nevertheless, we remain cautious in regards to an overly bearish USD/JPY outlook. As we approach the yearly close, volatility should be expected to stay low and we don’t expect an aggressive attack at the region around 106.80/107.00, at least not for now, which would definitely increase chances of a sharper drop from a technical perspective, as low as 105.00 and probably even lower:

USDJPY Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between September 20, 2018, to November 29, 2019). Accessed: November 29, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

Discover the world’s #1 multi-asset platform

Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with a custom, upgraded version of MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5 Supreme Edition!

Download MetaTrader 5 and begin trading today!

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
  9. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets