InvestMacro

By Orbex

USD Rallying

The US Dollar has continued its rally over the European morning on Thursday with the USD index trading up to 97.05. Yesterday, the ADP employment reading came in well above expectations at 202k vs 160k expected, fuelling expectations for a strong reading in Friday’s employment report.

EUR Lower on USD Strength

EURUSD has been lower over the session so far in light of the rally in USD. Weakness in Eurozone data readings across the week has weighed on the single currency. Traders now ait on the release of the December ECB meeting minutes due later today. Should the minutes reveal any support for further easing among ECB policymakers, EUR is likely to trade much lower.

GBP Down

GBPUSD trades lower over the day with the rally in USD weighing on the G10 bloc. MPs continue to debate the PM’s Brexit bill in the Commons with a vote due later today. The bill is expected to be passed, given the strong Conservative majority, which should keep GBP supported in the near term. GBPUSD trades 1.3080 last, having broken down to fresh lows.

Risk Rallies

Risk assets have been better supported over the last 24 hours. Following an initial downside reaction in response to news of an Iranian missile strike on a US army base in Iraq, risk sentiment has rallied. Trump’s response to the attack has defused expectations of any US response, leading risk assets higher. The SPX500 trades 3269.18 last.

JPY & Gold Lower

Safe havens have been lower over the European session on Thursday. Both JPY and gold have traded lower against USD given the recovery in risk markets. USDJPY trades 109.37 last, turning back up towards recent highs. XAUUSD is still sitting at the bottom of recent lows at 1547.70 last.

Crude Falls Back

Oil prices have traded lower in the early European session on Thursday. Following a brief move above the 63.13 level, crude is now trading 59.83 last, Yesterday, the EIA reported an unexpected drawdown in US crude stores. The scaling back of US rhetoric towards Iran has also weighed on crude as traders perceive a reduced likelihood of full-scale conflict between the two countries.

Lift-Off For Loonie

USDCAD has been firmly higher over the European session on Thursday with price breaking above the 1.3035 level to trade 1.3052. The decline in crude prices over the last 24 hours has weighed on CAD. Unemployment data tomorrow could help stem the decline if the indicator is seen positively.

Aussie Lower

AUDUSD has been back under pressure today with price turning back down to recent lows, trading .6857 last. The market is expecting an RBA rate cut at the bank’s next meeting in February as a response to the wildfires which have decimated parts of Australia. AUDUSD trades .6858 last.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6873; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6930 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6745. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6980. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7065. After breaking the support area and fixing below 0.6825, the price may continue moving downwards and complete Head & Shoulders reversal pattern.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6647; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6655 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6505. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6735. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6855.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3037; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.3045 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2875. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.3085. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.3175.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday in the green zone (+0.30%). The conflict between the US and Iran is still in the focus of attention. The day before, US President Donald Trump responded to Iranian attacks on US forces in Iraq with sanctions, not military measures. At the same time, he noted that the Americans had not suffered as a result of missile strikes by Iran.

Optimistic economic data from the United States supported the US currency. Thus, ADP nonfarm employment change increased to 202K in December, while experts expected 160K.

The “black gold” prices have fallen. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $59.65 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.53%), #DIA (+0.58%), #QQQ (+0.75%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has been growing. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.87-1.88%.

• – Initial jobless claims in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the Bank of Canada Governor Poloz.

by JustForex

By Orbex

Coming up later tonight, or early tomorrow depending on where you are, we have the first major bit of economic data out of Australia for the year.

A better than expected trade balance might be what the market needs to reverse the downslope in the AUDUSD so far this month.

The trade balance is also key given the weakness in commodity prices lately, despite the green shoots on the trade front.

Initial optimism about the US and China reaching a deal ahead of the holidays has turned into a bit of impatience. The two leaders have yet to actually sign the deal.

While the markets, so far, seem to generally not care about the tensions in the Middle East, it might be a distraction that could further delay a trade deal. And that wouldn’t help the case for Aussie strength.

What We Are Looking For

The headline number that is likely to move the market immediately is the Trade Balance.

Expectations are for this to increase to AUD6.1B from AUD4.5B in November. We should note that Chinese firms usually ramp up purchases to build inventory ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.

Australia’s trade surplus has been declining since reaching a record peak in June. The driving force behind that, and what analysts are going to be interested in, could drive price action after we get the balance: the difference between imports and exports.

Components

Over the last several months, Australia has benefited from unusually high commodity prices. This includes iron ore, which has allowed them to increase the value of their exports substantially.

The trade balance has been over three times higher than last year. We could expect this to impart strength to the Aussie, as companies repatriate profits.

On the other hand, the internal economy has been struggling. We can clearly see this in weak import growth.

While exports grew 5% in November (the last month from which we have data), imports grew only 0.4%. We would expect this lack of consumer confidence to keep the RBA on an easing bias and offset potential strength from the good trade numbers.

Potential for Risk Aversion?

Last week’s PMIs came in just slightly better than anticipated, but still in contraction.

Generally, Australia’s outlook remains dependent on the situation in China. However, the recent headlines might also give some investors pause. This is because the economic effects of the wildfires across the country are not yet known.

The fires themselves have not majorly affected any significant economic infrastructure. However, the change in government policies to respond to them could have an effect on fiscal priorities. Also, the momentary disruption in transportation in different areas could have a slight negative impact on indicators for January.

Several analysts are pointing to the AUDUSD near significant support. This could be bolstered if we get some good economic data, later. However, that support might weaken a bit should we see a significant miss in the trade balance without an improvement in imports.

By Orbex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Last time oil peaked, it dropped nearly 20% soon afterward!

TheTechnicalTraders.com

By Orbex – There are bubbling expectations that the UK might look to run trade talks with the US in parallel with its negotiations with the EU.

The UK PM’s spokesperson spoke during a briefing at Westminster this week. He told reporters that the UK would be “free to hold trade discussions with other countries across the world” following the January 31^st departure date.

Johnson’s spokesman said:

“Once we have left the EU on January 31 we will be free to hold trade discussions with countries across the world and not just focus on discussing the future partnership with the EU.”

MP’s Split Over Handling Trade Talks

These comments follow reports over the weekend from UK newspapers revealing that the PM’s cabinet is divided over how best to approach the trade deal negotiations with the EU.

The report by the Sunday Times highlighted that some top ministers, such as Dominic Raab and Liz Truss, are in favor of running parallel talks with the US in order to exert pressure on the EU.

However, according to the report, other cabinet ministers deem this approach “unrealistic”.

MPs Debate Brexit Bill

UK MPs have returned from their Christmas break. They are now taking part in three days of debate on the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill, before a final vote on Thursday.

Expectations are for the bill which was passed in its initial stage before Christmas, to be confirmed this week. This is primarily due to the strong majority held by the Conservative party in parliament.

Confirmation of the bill will see the UK leave the EU on January 31^st. This will activate the transition phase, currently due to end on December 31^st, 2020.

Deadline In Question

There is still a great deal of controversy around the current deadline for the transition phase.

Many critics argue that 11 months is nowhere near enough time to establish a proper trade deal. Many have even accused Boris of setting the talks up for failure.

Despite the criticism, Johnson remains adamant that the two sides can hammer out a deal within the current timeframe. However, he has warned that he will not extend the deadline if a deal is not ready. He is adamant that he remains prepared to leave the EU without a trade deal if necessary.

The issue of the deadline raises risks for GBP into the back end of the year. However, for now, it seems that traders are reveling in the calmer conditions. A no-deal Brexit is now out of the picture.

GBP has been well supported over recent weeks and looks likely to continue higher in the near term.

Technical Perspective

GBPUSD continues to fluctuate around the 1.3057 level. The initial breakout last month, was capped by the long-term bearish trend line from 2015 highs. That being said, the retest of the shorter-term bearish trend line has held as support.

While price holds above the 1.3057 support, focus remains on further upside with the 1.3375 level the key topside level to watch. To the downside, the 1.2768 level is the main structural support with the bullish trend line from 2019 lows coming in around the same level.

By Orbex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Another wild week for oil traders with missiles flying and huge overnight price swings in crude. As we recently pointed out within our current Oil research article, Oil and the Energy sector may be setting up for another great trade.  We recently commented on how the supply/demand situation for oil has changed over the past 20+ years.

With US oil production near highs and a shift taking place toward electric and hybrid vehicles, the US and global demand for oil has fallen in recent years.  By our estimates, the two biggest factors keeping oil prices below $75 ppb are the shift by consumers across the globe to move towards more energy-efficient vehicles and the massive new supply capabilities within the US.

Our researchers believe the downside price rotation in Crude Oil early this week, after the US missile attack in Iraq, suggests that global traders are just not as fearful of a disruption in oil supply as a result of any new military actions in Iraq, Iraq or anywhere near the Middle East.  If there was any real concern, then the price of Crude Oil would have spiked recently.

We talk more about what we expect with oil both the bullish and bearish outlooks in this recently recorded conversation with HoweStreet.

Inverse Energy ETF ERY Daily Chart

This leads us to believe the inverse Energy ETF, ERY, maybe setting up a very nice bottom in price below $40.  Ultimately, we believe a deeper price bottom may set up in the next 10 days where ERY may trade below the $36~37 range, but time will tell if we are correct about this or not.

Historically, price levels below $40 have resulted in some very nice long trade setups in ERY.  This ERY Daily chart highlights the Support Channel we believe exists in ERY and why we believe any entry-level below $36 is an outstanding entry point for any future upside price move.

Weekly ERY Chart

This Weekly ERY chart highlights the past rallies that have originated from within the Support Channel.  Pay special attention to the size and scope of these moves.  The October 2018 rally resulted in a 183% price rally.  The April 2019 rally resulted in a 57% price rally.  The July 2019 rally resulted in a 50% price rally and the last move in September 2019 resulted in a 41% price rally.

Could this next setup in ERY be preparing for another 40% to 60%+ upside price rally?

We believe the setup in ERY is very close to generating an entry trigger.  We have not issued any new trade triggers for our members-only service as we are waiting for confirmation of a potentially deeper price move in ERY.  Right now, get ready for what may become a very good setup in ERY over the next few weeks.

Watch what happens in the energy sector over the next 30 to 60 days.  We may be setting up for a fairly large price rotation as the tensions spill over into the global markets and precious metals.  We may find that Oil is the big loser over the next 60+ days.

Profit during times when most others can’t which is why you should join my Wealth Trading Newsletter for index, metals, and energy trade alerts. Visit our website to learn how you can see what this research is telling us.

SUBSCRIBE TO MY TRADE ALERTS AND 
GET YOUR FREE BULLION!

Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

NOTICE : Our free research does not constitute a trade recommendation or solicitation for our readers to take any action regarding this research.  It is provided for educational purposes only.  Our research team produces these research articles to share information with our followers/readers in an effort to try to keep you well informed.  Visit our web site (www.thetechnicaltraders.com) to learn how to take advantage of our members-only research and trading signals.

By Orbex

The US dollar is rebounding after a patch of strong economic reports from the United States.

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI was higher at 55.0, beating estimates of 54.5. It was also higher compared to November’s print of 53.9.

The trade balance figures also narrowed as exports outstripped imports. However, given the broader middle east tensions, investor sentiment remains in check.

Eurozone Flash Inflation Within Estimates

The latest flash inflation estimates for the eurozone for January matched expectations. Headline inflation rose by 1.3%, matching forecasts, while core CPI was also up 1.3% during the period ending January 2020.

However, the euro remained unimpressed by the big change in inflation. In a separate report, eurozone retail sales rose by 1.0%, beating estimates of a 0.6% increase.

EURUSD Back to Lower Support

The declines in the common currency sent EURUSD back to the support area of 1.1131. This comes amid a failure to breakout above the resistance level. The formation of a lower high also suggests that the downside momentum is building. In the event of a breakout below 1.1131 support, we expect the euro to slip to 1.1100 level next.

Brexit Fears Resurface Dampening Demand for GBP

With less than 24 days to go, Brexit is back in the headlines. UK Prime minister, Boris Johnson said that he is pushing for speedy talks with the EU. Despite the January 31 deadline, both parties are expected to kickstart a transition period for the trade negotiations to continue. The pound sterling is trading weaker on the day.

GBPUSD Holds on to Support

Price action in the GBPUSD is currently weaker as the support level of 1.3100 is being tested. We expect the currency pair to stay range-bound within 1.3226 and 1.3100 in the short term. A breakout from this region is required that will confirm the direction. For the moment, the bias remains to the upside.

Gold Holds Steady on Caution

Gold prices retreated on Monday, but price action remains bullish. The precious metal remains well bid as the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran show no signs of abating. Even some positive economic data from the US did not help stem the bullish gains in gold prices.

Will XAUUSD Breakout Higher?

This is the question to ask as gold prices approach the previous highs near 1577.68. A breakout past this level will confirm further gains to the upside. The next main target is at the 1600 level. However, if there is a correction, gold prices will be initially stalling near the current lows of 1557.76. A breakdown below this level will trigger declines down to 1534.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is correcting towards 1.1090. Possibly, today the pair may fall with the short-term target at 1.1120 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.1163, at least. Later, the market may start another decline to reach 1.1090.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is forming the fifth correctional wave with the target at 1.2822. Today, the pair may reach 1.2888 and then start a new growth towards 1.3050. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach the above-mentioned target.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the ascending impulse towards 0.9744, USDCHF has finished the correction at 0.9666. Possibly, today the pair may break this range to the upside to reach the short-term target at 0.9807. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to reach 0.9740 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9844.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the ascending impulse towards 108.40. Today, the pair may correct to reach 108.05 and then start another growth with the target at 108.76.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached 0.6860; right now, it is consolidating near the lows. Possibly, the pair may form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.6945.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is consolidating around 62.00. The main scenario implies that the price may continue trading inside the downtrend towards 61.20. Later, the market may correct towards 63.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 60.90.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

After reaching the short-term target at 1.2970, USDCAD continues moving downwards to reach 1.2950; right now, it is consolidating around 1.2985. Later, the market may break this range to the upside and start another correction towards 1.3060 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 1.2950.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may test 1581.50 from above and then resume trading inside the uptrend towards with the target at 1627.38. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to reach 1606.50 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1656.65.

BRENT

Brent has reached the short-term target at 71.31; right now, it is correcting towards 69.72. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target is at 73.50.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After breaking 7700.00 to the upside, BTCUSD continues forming the third ascending wave towards 8600.00. Possibly, today the pair may reach this level and then start a new correction with the target at 7700.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

USD Recovers

The US dollar has been on a stronger footing again today. Following a small retracement lower in the index overnight, price is now trading back up to yesterday’s highs, printing 96.73 last. A stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing reading has helped boost the dollar along with news that the US trade deficit shrank to its lowest level in three years last month.

EUR Lower On Data Miss

EURUSD has been weaker today in light of the rally in USD. Eurozone flash CPI was in line with expectations yesterday at 1.3% though with German factory orders, release today, seen down again last month, EURUSD is trading lower. Price is currently testing the 1.1124 level support.

GBP Holds The Line

GBPUSD is currently flat on the session following the European open. Despite the rally in USD, positive expectations around Brexit are helping keep GBP underpinned at current levels. MPs are currently performing final scrutiny on the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill which is expected to be passed this week. GBPUSD trades 1.3149 last.

Risk Assets Recover

Risk assets have been a little firmer today, recovering from a sharp drop in equities yesterday in response to news that Iran fired ballistic missiles as a US army base in Iraq. The SPX500 shed around 40 points in response to the news though has since recovered to trade back up to 3230s last.

Safe Havens Weaker Following Risk Recovery

Safe havens have been weaker today, following the recovery in risk assets which saw both JPY and gold pulling back from fresh highs. USDJPY trades 108.45 last, having pierced below the 107.89 level in response to news of the Iranian attack. XAUUSD trades 1583.09 last, down from overnight highs of 1611.39.

Oil Backs Off Highs

Oil prices were sharply higher overnight in response to news of the Iranian attack on a US army base in Iraq. Crude prices jumped to highs of 65.44 overnight, before falling back to 62.78 last. Yesterday, the API reported a further, massive drawdown in US crude stores of 6 million barrels. Traders are now waiting on the headline EIA report later today which could see oil higher again if a drawdown is confirmed.

Loonie Recovering

USDCAD has been higher today, supported by the rally in USD and the pullback in crude. USDCAD trades 1.3009 last as the recovery off the 1.2952 level continues. Canadian employment data later in the week will be the main domestic data focus along with the US employment reports.

Aussie Under Pressure

AUDUSD has been a little weaker today, despite the pickup in risk assets, as the recovery in USD weighs. AUDUSD trades .6866 last. The Aussie has been under pressure this week due to building expectations of an RBA rate cut at the bank’s February meeting.

By Orbex