InvestMacro Forex News

By Central Bank News

By Central Bank News
    The central bank of the Philippines left its key policy rate unchanged at 4 percent as inflation expectations remain firmly anchored amidst an improving domestic economy.
    The monetary board of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said in a statement that the latest forecasts call for inflation to remain in the lower half of the bank’s 3-5 percent target range for 2012 and 2013 and a weak global economy could further dampen oil and commodity prices in coming months.
    “On balance, therefore, the Monetary Board believes that the benign inflation outlook and robust domestic growth provide adequate room to keep policy rates unchanged, especially as the cumulative 50-basis-point reduction in policy rates and the operational adjustments in the reserve requirements earlier in the year work their way through the economy,” the bank said.
    The Philippine central bank cut its main policy rate by 25 basis points in March after trimming the rate by the same amount at its January meeting.
    The bank’s key policy rate is the overnight borrowing, or reverse repurchase facility (RRR), which was maintained at 4 percent, while the overnight lending, or repurchase facility (RR) was left at 6 percent.


www.CentralBankNews.info

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Source: ForexYard

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen during afternoon trading yesterday, after several US indicators came in below analyst forecasts. The USD/JPY dropped over 30 pips following the news, eventually reaching as low as 79.33. Turning to today, traders will want to pay attention to the US Core CPI and Unemployment Claims figures. Should either of them come in above expectations, the greenback could recoup some of yesterday’s losses. At the same time, if the US news once again disappoints, the dollar may extend its bearish trend.

Economic News

USD – US Core CPI Set to Impact Dollar

The US dollar saw very little movement against its main currency rivals during the first part of the day yesterday. The EUR/USD spent much of the day around the 1.2525 level, while the AUD/USD held steady around 0.9970. That being said, negative US news during mid-day trading resulted in the greenback sliding against the safe-haven Japanese yen. The US Retail Sales figure declined for the second straight month in May, in yet another sign that the US economic recovery is slowing down. Furthermore, the US Core Retail Sales and PPI both came in below expectations.

Turning to today, dollar traders will want to note the results of the US Core CPI and Unemployment Claims figures, both scheduled to be announced at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are currently forecasting both indicators to come in at the same level as their previous respective results. If true, the dollar may be able to recoup some of yesterday’s losses against the yen. That being said, if news out of the US once again disappoints, the yen may receive an additional boost against the greenback.

EUR – Italian Bond Sale May Create Euro Volatility

The euro traded steadily against most of its main currency rivals throughout the day yesterday, as investors remain hesitant to open new positions ahead of elections in Greece on Sunday. The EUR/JPY took slight losses during mid-day trading, falling from a high of 99.99 to 99.28. The pair eventually stabilized around the 99.55 level. Against the British pound, the euro was able to gain close to 20 pips, eventually reaching as high as 0.8072 before seeing a slight downward correction to stabilize at 0.8065.

Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to the results of an Italian bond auction. Investors will be closely watching the auction, as it is likely to provide clues as to whether the euro-zone debt crisis is spreading beyond Spain. Furthermore, with elections in Greece quickly approaching, news out of that country could lead to euro volatility. Any signs that anti-austerity political parties could win on Sunday may result in the common-currency taking losses against its safe-haven currency rivals.

Gold – Gold Spikes Following Disappointing US News

Risk aversion in the marketplace following disappointing US news during mid-day trading yesterday caused the price of gold to spike over $10 an ounce, eventually reaching as high as $1621. Investors fearing that the US economic recovery in the US is slowing down have chosen to place their funds in gold, as it is now viewed as a safe-haven asset.

Today, traders will want to pay attention to the US Core CPI and weekly Unemployment Claims figures, as they are likely going to provide valuable clues as to the current state of the US economy. Should the news once again come in below expectations, gold may extend yesterday’s gains. At the same time, if either of the indicators comes in above their predicted levels, gold could turn bearish during afternoon trading.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Rebounds in Afternoon Trading

The price of crude oil fell during mid-day trading yesterday, eventually reaching as low as $82.12 a barrel, following disappointing news out of the US which once again led to fears that demand in the world’s largest oil consuming country would go down. That being said, the price of oil was able to rebound later in the day, increasing by over $1 to trade as high as $83.80.

Turning to today, crude oil traders will once again want to pay attention to US news. Should the Core CPI figure, set to be released at 12:30 GMT, come in below expectations, the price of oil may see some short-term losses during afternoon trading. That being said, any better than expected news could boost risk appetite, which in turn may help oil turn bullish.

Technical News

EUR/USD

While the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are narrowing, indicating that a price shift could occur in the near future, most other technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory. Taking a wait and see approach may be the best option for traders.

GBP/USD

A bullish cross on the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that this pair could see an upward correction in the coming days. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is currently close to dropping into oversold territory. Traders will want to pay attention to this indicator. If it falls below -80, it may be a good time to open long positions.

USD/JPY

The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the same chart, which has crossed into overbought territory. Opening short positions may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

While a bearish cross has formed on the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic, most other technical indicators show this pair range-trading, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. Taking a wait and see approach may be the best choice for this pair, as a clearer picture could present itself in the near future.

The Wild Card

USD/SEK

The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has fallen into oversold territory, meaning that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, a bullish cross has formed on the same chart’s Slow Stochastic, making this a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible upward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

As was highlighted in yesterday’s article, the British pound appears positioned to undergo a technical downward correction to its latest upswing. The GBP/CAD appears to also support such a perspective.

The GBP/CAD has been trading within a long-term downtrend since late January 2007, when the pair peaked at 2.3566. Since that time, the pound has given significant ground to the loonie, currently trading at 1.5965, a 32.2% loss in value over the past four years.

What I would like to emphasize here is not that this downtrend is coming to an end, but rather that traders should not expect it to come to an end anytime soon.

As per our technical analysis, this pair has recently touched the long-term trendline and begun its downward cycle.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the price gradually cascading downward, supporting the cyclical downturn. The Stochastic (slow) also shows what could be a bearish cross above the 80 line; a solid indication of impending bearishness.

As you can see below, the pair recently found a support line which has created a convergence triangle. The convergence point of this relatively new formation looks to be just barely above the 1.5500 price line, which represents our impending target.

Such convergence formations have historically meant that the pair will continue its long-term trend once reached. As such, traders may want to anticipate a stronger downward movement once the 1.5500 price line is breached in the coming weeks.

GBP/CAD – Weekly Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Today will be a quiet news day for the U.S. and Europe as there are no major economic data releases on the calendar from either. However, Canada appears to be releasing one significant figure, which means we may see a day of trading with low liquidity among the majors and therefore increased volatility.

Day-traders can take advantage of these intense trading days by swinging within the larger-than-normal price fluctuations.

Another developing trend is the recovery of crude oil. Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, after a weekend leak shut the Trans-Alaska Pipeline and forced producers to cut output to about 5% of their daily average of 630,000 barrels.

Moreover, since the Dollar began dropping against the majors, crude has risen further and further. Currently trading around $89.35 a barrel, if the Dollar will continue to drop, crude could reach above $90 a barrel by the end of the day.

Here are today’s leading events:

13:15 GMT: Canadian Housing Starts

The Housing Starts report provides the number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. As a leading indicator of housing and construction growth, this report has a direct correlation with the strength of the Canadian economy. If the end result will beat forecast for 179K housing starts, then the Canadian dollar (CAD) is likely to strengthen.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

One of the less-frequently analyzed pairs is providing us with signs of an impending bearish run.

The EUR/CAD appears to be forming what looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, suggesting we could see long-term bearishness as we head into 2011.

The pair’s steep decline over the first half of 2010 led to a record low of 1.2466 in early June, but it looks to have been recovering since.

What we see now, however, looks to be signaling that the down-trend was not actually over, but stalling within a larger cycle.

If what is shown on the chart below turns out to be a head-and-shoulders formation, then traders should look to see the pair finding support at the 23.6% Fibonacci line and moving up towards the 1.36-37 range before entering another steep decline with targets near the record low of 1.2466.

EUR/CAD – Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Ahead of the Canadian monthly wholesale sales report (13:30 GMT), it appears the USD/CAD is building towards a decision point.

On the shorter time-scale, we can see the pair stagnating between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting trader indecision prior to this release.

Expectations are for an increase of 0.8%, up from last month’s reading of 0.4%, which appears to be forecasting a drop in the pair as the loonie gains in value against the USD. The technical indicators below support this downward sentiment.

If Wholesale Sales come as expected, traders should anticipate a downward move towards 1.0100. If the figure disappoints, we could see some upward movement.

USD/CAD – 4-Hour Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) -The Canadian dollar dropped against major currencies as commodities declined on concerns the US economic growth is slowing. A report from the US showing that Retail Sales declined in May for the second straight month aggravated the situation. Further, the Canadian currency dropped as Spain was degraded by Moody’s three steps down prior to an election in Spain. This has spur investors to seek safe haven assets hence decline in commodity related currencies. The drop in the Canadian dollar also came as the market prepares to receive a report from the country showing Industrial companies’ production was steady last month.

According to Shane Enright of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce working as an Executive director of the World Market Department suggested that the loonie is tracking equities where flows have been light hence the decline. In addition, Shane said that the market is also watching for the Greece election hence the slow movement of equities. The US Commerce Department report that the Retail Sales dropped by 0.2 percent last month has affected the demand for the loonie as a similar decline was also reported in April. Investors are speculating that the Fed will make additional stimulus as employment drops and economic growth remain sluggish.

Talking about the US Retail Sales report, Steve Butler, the Director of Foreign-Exchange trading at Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto said that the numbers were disappointing but added that most people expected such a report. He also added that the main focus of the market is on euro zone as Greece goes to the poll on June 17.

The Canadian dollar dropped after the report, shedding 0.4 percent against the US dollar to trade at C$1.0303 per US dollar at the close of trading in Toronto. George Davis, a Technical Analyst at Royal Bank of Canada said that loonie is appreciating after it strengthened below 1.0355 on June 6.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – This week, the euro zone leaders have decided to act on Spanish debt crisis by agreeing to support the nation with 100 billion Euros. This gave the euro some upward momentum but not for long as investors shifted their focus to the election in Greece. Greeks will vote on Sunday June 17, and this will be the major event that will shape most of trading next week. Here is an analysis of major currency pairs.

EUR/USD: the euro started the week on a range between 1.24 and 1.2540. It moved up but could not break the 1.2624 level as investors trading with fear of Spain and Italy bond auctions. Sentiments from Fitch about the status of some nations in the euro region did not help the pair to move up. Positive reports from the US and safe haven demand is expected to continue to next week. The major event that will affect this cross is the Greek election in June 17. We expect to see and upside trend if pro-austerity parties win the election and a downside trend if they lose.

USD/JPY: sentiments from IMF diminished the demand for the Japanese currency helping the pair to move up for the first time. BOJ meeting which start today and ends tomorrow will have an effect on the currency. BOJ is expected to wait for the Greece election before it can take any decisive measures to curb the strengthening yen. Safe haven demand is expected to increase in the coming week and we might see the cross moving upwards.

GBP/USD: the cross closed the week at 1.5463 and has slightly gone up to mid 1.55. Increasing safe haven demand has forced investors to go for the pound as crisis in euro area continues to escalate. Spain became the fourth country in the region to seek international bailout and focus is now on Italy. The cross is expected to have a weekly gain this week, which is expected to continue next week. 1.5600 is expected to provide major resistance next week. We have a bullish outlook for the cross next week.

USD/CHF: the cross dropped a cent last week as the Swiss franc reversed its downward trend closing the week at 0.9590. This week the cross has been down to 0.9578 as the Swiss Franc continued to gain momentum; however, this was limited as the cross later climbed to 0.9602 and then back to 0.9573. Next week the cross is expected to be neutral.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox