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London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 12 November 2012, 08:00 EST
SPOT MARKET gold prices hovered just below $1738 an ounce Monday morning in London, close to three-week highs, while stocks and commodities were broadly flat and the Euro traded near two-month lows against the Dollar, as the US and Greece both contemplated upcoming fiscal difficulties.
Silver prices traded around $32.70 an ounce, also near three-week highs.
Bullion importers in India, meantime, which sees the celebration of Diwali tomorrow, slowed their purchases of gold Friday as the Rupee weakened and gold prices rose, newswire Reuters reports.
“Jewelry makers may have to wait before they come back to buy again,” says one physical bullion dealer in Hong Kong.
“People are digesting the rebound in prices.”
“Worries about the fiscal cliff continue to drive [international bullion market] sentiment,” says Nick Trevethan, senior metals strategist at ANZ, referring to the combination of tax rises and government spending cuts currently due in the US at the start of January.
President Obama is due to hold talks this week with labor and business leaders to try to build a consensus on avoiding the fiscal cliff.
“We are [also] seeing some signs of compromise between Democrats and Republicans,” says ANZ’s Trevethan.
“That may take some of the steam out of the upside story for gold, but the prospect of negative real interest rates and longer-term inflationary risks remain positives for bullion.”
“The lesson of Europe,” says Congressional Budget Office founding director Alice Rivlin, “is don’t wait until you’re in a crisis to act. Do it now. The other lesson is that austerity is not a good prescription for weak economies.”
Here in Europe, the Greek parliament passed its 2013 budget Monday by 167 votes to 128, less than a week after it the Greek government narrowly won a vote in favor of around €13.5 billion of austerity measures.
“Just four days ago, we voted the most sweeping reforms ever in Greece,” said Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras.
“The[se] sacrifices will be the last. Provided, of course, we implement all we have legislated.”
Greece may be unable to meet a €5 billion debt repayment that comes due this Friday. Eurozone finance ministers meet later today to discuss whether Greece should be paid the delayed next installment of its bailout funding, worth €31.5 billion.
The latest report on Greece by the so-called troika of lenders – the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund – has been completed, Eurozone finance ministers’ chief Jean-Claude Juncker confirmed, although there will be no decision today on whether Greece gets its funding.
“Greece has done what it was asked to do and now is the time for the creditors to make good on their commitments,” said Greek prime minister Samaras.
Greece is hoping to raise funds to cover Friday’s repayment through an auction of Treasury bills tomorrow, the Financial Times reports, although the report adds that Greek banks that would buy the debt can only raise €3.5 billion of collateral to post with the ECB in order to fund their purchases.
Japan’s economy shrank by 0.9% in the third quarter, and 3.5% year-on-year, according to provisional GDP figures published Sunday.
The Bank of Japan “is committed to continuing with aggressive monetary easing” its governor Masaaki Shirakawa said Monday.
The United States is set to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2017, largely thanks to shale production, the International Energy Agency reports.
Elsewhere in the US, the so-called speculative net long position of gold futures and options traders on the Comex – measured as the difference between bullish and bearish contracts – fell for the fourth week running in the week to last Tuesday, weekly data published Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
“[Gold] prices have recently been supported by official sector [central bank] buying,” London Bullion Market Association chairman David Gornall told the LBMA’s annual conference in Hong Kong this morning.
“Will the gap between the amount of gold held in reserve by the developing markets and that of the developed world close?… comparing China to the US, it would seem that in China, gold asset allocation can only go in one direction.”
“Gold plays a very important role in the formation of the financial market system,” Xie Duo, general director of China’s central bank, told the LBMA conference Monday.
“[There has been] big progress in the Chinese gold market…but there is still a long way to go.”
The Agricultural Bank of China, one of nine Chinese banks licensed to import gold, has said it plans to start trading precious metals overseas.
“We will start trading globally in the next year or two, most likely in London and New York,” said Wang Xinyou, head of precious metals at AgBank, which currently enables retail investors to buy and sell gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+
(c) BullionVault 2012
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The greenback and the yen rallied last week as fears of fiscal cliff triggered demand for safety. This week, the worries about Europe and the fiscal cliff in US will sediment the risk-off mood in the market. Here is a brief overview of major events in the market.
Tuesday 13
At 0930hrs, the market will be focusing on the UK inflation data. The annual inflation gauge for UK in September rose by 2.2 percent according to the previous data. The market is expecting another rise to 2.3 percent this time round.
On the same day, the Euro zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment report will be released at 1000hrs GMT. Economic sentiment gauge in Germany improved in October but remain in the negative territory. With the ECB committed to buying government bonds, the economic sentiments in Germany are expected to increase to negative 10.1 in November.
The last major event on this day will be the US Federal Budget Balance report which will be release at 1900hrs GMT. The market is expecting a deficit of 126.2 billion.
Wednesday 14
The first report will be the UK Employment report at 0930hrs, which is expected to show a decline of 5,100 in the number of employed people in UK. This will be followed by the US Retail Sales report at 1330hrs. The market predicts a rise in core sales to 0.3 percent while the retail sales is expected to remain the same at 1.1 percent.
The US PPI and the US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be the other major events of the day. The US PPI is expected to increase marginally by 0.2 percent while the market wants to know the FOMC stand on asset purchases and interest rates.
Thursday 15
The US inflation data at 1330hrs will be the first major report. The market is predicting a rise of 0.1 percent this time round. He US Unemployment claims data will be released at the same time and it is expected to show a rise of 362,000.
At 1500hrs, the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will be released. The index rose to 5.1 percent in October from a minus 1.9 percent in September. The market is expecting a drop to 2.3 percent this time round.
The positive reports from the US will boost risk-on mood which may weaken the dollar. However, events from Europe and Japan may keep the dollar strong against major peers.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox
By Central Bank News
Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.)
EURUSD: Having broken below the 1.2824 level, further decline is likely in the new week. Support lies at the 1.2700 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. But if broken, expect further declines to build up towards the 1.2625 level followed by the 1.2498 level. Its weekly RSI is supportive of this view as it is bearish and pointing lower. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.2822 level , its support turned resistance. However, if this fails, further upside should build up towards the 1.3000 followed by the 1.3171 level. A breach of here will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. All in all, EUR faces further downside threats.
Source: ForexYard
Higher-yielding assets turned bearish on Friday, as slowing economic growth throughout the euro-zone led to risk aversion among investors. Of particular concern is the possibility that France and Germany, the euro-zone’s two biggest economies, may soon slip into recession. This week, traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant economic indicators. Today’s Eurogroup meetings followed by a German economic sentiment figure tomorrow will likely paint a clearer picture of the current economic state of the EU. Later in the week, US retail sales and manufacturing data may result in market volatility.
The US dollar advanced against its higher-yielding currency rivals on Friday, as concerns that the euro-zone debt crisis is spreading to the wealthier countries in the EU led to risk aversion in the marketplace. The AUD/USD fell more than 60 pips during the morning session, eventually trading as low as 1.0358. After a minor upward correction, the pair closed the week at 1.0382. Against the Swiss franc, the greenback advanced some 61 pips to trade as high as 0.9497. The USD/CHF finished out the week at 0.9482.
Today, traders will want to remember that US markets will be closed for a bank holiday. Attention should be given to any announcements out of the euro-zone with regards to the debt situations in Spain and Greece. Later in the week, a batch of US news is set to create significant volatility in the marketplace. On Wednesday, traders should note the Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and PPI figures. Thursday promises to be another active day in the markets when the Core CPI, Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released.
Euro-zone debt fears once again weighed down on higher-yielding currencies on Friday, as speculations that economic growth in Germany may slow down in the fourth quarter of this year caused investors to shift their funds to safe-haven currencies. The EUR/USD hit a fresh two-month low during mid-day trading at 1.2688 before bouncing back to 1.2714. Overall, the pair fell more than 70 pips for the day. Against the JPY, the common-currency fell more than 100 pips during the first part of the day to trade as low as 100.41, a one-month low.
This week, traders will want to pay attention to several key euro-zone news events. Today’s Eurogroup meetings may determine if and when Greece receives its next round of bailout funds. Additionally, any mention today of whether Spain will seek its own bailout package could lead to market volatility. On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will likely provide a good indicator of the current state of Germany’s economy. Any worse than expected data could lead to heavy euro losses.
While the price of gold saw a minor drop during Friday’s trading session, the precious metal remained bullish overall despite risk aversion in the marketplace. Analysts attributed gold’s upward momentum to the re-election of US President Obama and speculations that he will keep US interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Gold finished out Friday’s session at $1730.67 an ounce, down just over $6 for the day.
This week, gold traders will want to pay attention to news out of both the US and euro-zone. If the US dollar continues making gains on the euro, gold will become more expensive for international buyers, which may result in prices falling. Conversely, any positive euro-zone data could result in the price of gold extending its recent gains.
The price of crude oil shot up more than $2 a barrel during afternoon trading on Friday, as a better than expected US consumer sentiment figure led to speculations that demand for oil in the US will increase. After trading as high as $86.72, the price of crude fell to the $86 level, where it finished out the week.
This week, oil is likely to see a volatile week, as significant news out of both the euro-zone and US is set to be released. Any signs today or tomorrow that the euro-zone debt crisis is worsening may cause the price of crude to reverse its recent gains. That being said, any better than expected US data on Wednesday and Thursday may help boost prices during the second half of the week.
While the weekly chart’s MACD/OsMA appears to be forming a bearish cross, most other long-term technical indicators show this pair range trading, making a definitive trend hard to predict. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.
The daily chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart appears close to forming a bullish cross. Traders may want to open long positions for this pair.
A bearish cross on the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that this pair could see a downward correction in the coming days. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart appears to be approaching overbought territory. Traders may want to open short positions for this pair.
Most long term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that a defined trend is difficult to predict at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.
The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is approaching overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions ahead of possible downward movement.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The 17-nation currency has remained near two months low against the greenback prior to a European policy makers meeting expected to discuss Greece issues. The ministers are projected to discuss on ways to maintain solvency in Greece and keep it in the trading bloc.
The euro has dropped for the fourth day against the Japanese currency, making this the longest stretch in six weeks. The euro has dropped against most majors as euro region’s finance ministers prepare to meet in Brussels at 5PM to discuss Greece. The finance ministers will be discussing issues plaguing the region. They are expected to discuss Greece as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has secured support for austerity measures in parliament.
According to Jeremy Stretch, a foreign exchange strategist in London at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, risk factors in Europe are dominated by Greek issues. As such, there is uncertainty in Europe which is adding pressure on the euro. The pressure on the euro started last week as Greek parliament voted for the 2013 budget. 167 lawmakers voted for the budget while 128 voted against. The Greek parliament has 300-lawmakers in parliament.
After the win, Antonis Samaras, the Greek Prime Minister, said that the country has taken the second decisive step towards achieving the austerity measures proposed. He projected that if Greece can secure the aid, there will be increased recovery and growth.
The 17-nation currency dropped by 0.1 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.2711 at the start of trading in London. The currency had dropped to $1.2690, on Friday last week, the weakest it has been since September 7. Against the Japanese yen, the euro dropped by 0.1 percent to exchange at 101 yen. The single currency had dropped by 2.1 percent against the yen last week. The Japanese currency was little changed against the greenback after reports from Japan showed that the economy contracted in the third quarter.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox
Source: ForexYard
Hey Everyone,
Listed below are some market trends for today.
Enjoy and good luck!
-Dan
Gold- May see a downward correction today
• Support- 1726.71
• Resistance- 1745.99
Silver- May see a downward correction today
• Support- 32.16
• Resistance- 33.11
Crude Oil- May see a downward correction today
• Support- 85.38
• Resistance- 87.54
Dax 30- May see upward movement today
• Support- 7097.36
• Resistance- 7217.76
EUR/USD- May see upward movement today
• Support- 1.2637
• Resistance- 1.2832
Read more forex news on our forex blog
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Source: ForexYard
After making slight gains against the US dollar when markets opened for the week, the euro once again began falling during the early morning session, and is now approaching a new two-month low. Analysts attributed the euro’s bearish movement to risk aversion due to concerns regarding the debt crises in Spain and Greece.
After gaining more than $2 a barrel on Friday, the price of crude oil remained relatively steady throughout the overnight session. Speculations about an increase in American demand for oil due to positive US economic indicators were responsible for oil’s recent gains.
Main News for Today
Eurogroup Meetings- All Day
• Euro-zone ministers will be discussing the next round of Greek bailout funds when they meet today
• Any positive developments with regard to Greece receiving additional bailout funds could result in risk taking, which may help the euro recover some of its recent losses
Traders will want to note that US markets will be closed today due to the Veterans Day holiday.
Read more forex news on our forex blog
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
If you are fed up of hearing about the ‘fiscal cliff‘ you’re not alone.
It’ll go for months yet, and we’ve already had a gutful of it!
If you’re not familiar with it, the fiscal cliff is the US government equivalent of the terrifying moment that a morbidly obese person realises that day one of the diet has arrived – and that it’s about to hurt!
So on this New Year’s Eve, old promises of cutting the annual deficit with spending cuts and higher taxes will come home to roost.
Politicians are now predictably running around Washington terrified at what this unwelcome dose of financial reality will do to economic growth.
Is this the US’ version of the European austerity that is eviscerating that continent? Will it turn the US into recession…?
After firing up QE3 to support the economy, the US government will likely pull yet another fiscal rabbit out of the hat – and defer the pain of living within their means (yet again).
But the fact is that all the fuss over the fiscal cliff is merely a sideshow.
The real problem here is the US debt.
Even if government has the gumption to keep riding towards the fiscal cliff, the US annual fiscal deficit would still only be halved.
That is instead of adding one trillion dollars to the total US debt level, it will increase by half a trillion.
It’s like the fat man fighting to eat a whole chocolate cake – but grumpily settling for just half of the thing instead!
Either way, the waistline of the US debt level keeps ballooning.
And the fiscal cliff is just the tip of the iceberg!
So while the market gets worked up about the fiscal cliff, you’d do well to look further out at the debt level. This has dropped off the radar, but it’s about to hit critical condition again.
Because the next set of headlines in coming months will be focused on the fact that the US government is almost back up to its debt ceiling.
This is the country’s ‘credit card limit’. Beyond this, the government will have to legislate to be able to borrow more money.
At the moment the limit is set at $16.4 trillion.
You’d think a lazy 16.4 trill might be enough…but no.
The US will reach that level in January 2013. That’s less than two months away.
Cue more fuss, months of tedious negotiations, and an inevitable increase in the debt limit…again. And maybe another downgrade from one of the ratings agencies like last time. It’s all depressingly familiar.
But the question is – where is the trade in all this?
As the debt ceiling rises, the US debt level fills it like expanding foam. For all the talk of fiscal prudence, the US government has as much self-control as a fatboy with the keys to the Tim Tam cupboard.
And where the US debt level goes, so does the gold price. The two have moved very closely with each other: as the value of the US dollar erodes with greater debt, the price of real, hard assets goes up.
With this in the background, gold is at a very powerful technical point right now.
Almost two months ago, the gold chart traced a golden cross. This is where the short term trend moves above the long-term trend. You can see it here. In the last ten years it has been a reliable indicator that gold is starting its next move up.
Last time it saw the start of a bull-run that doubled gold.
The only catch is that after a golden cross, the first thing it tends to do is pullback first – to get locked and loaded.
For example, after the 2009 golden cross that set gold up to double, gold first pulled back and fell for the first 50 trading days or so. You can see this in the blue line below.
And so far, after the recent golden cross (Sept 19 2012), we have followed a similar path. This is the red line below.
If history repeats…gold should start its next multiyear rally within the next few weeks.
With fiscal cliffs, debt ceilings, as well as QE3, Chinese demand, and central banks buying – it’s not hard to imagine gold rallying from here.
To get set for this, I’ve tipped gold stocks to Diggers & Drillers readers in the last few months. It’s only early days with this strategy, but so far the five new gold stocks are on average gains of 14.3%.
But I’m not the only one. My colleague and pal Nick Hubble is also seeing opportunity in gold stocks.
In fact he has just tipped one of my favourite gold producers. But for a different reason – Nick’s strategy is all about dividends. And with good reason in this case. As he says:
‘Even without dramatic inflation, there’s no reason why XXX’s dividends won’t quadruple in coming years as the gold price continues its steady rise. If it does, an annual payout on a $10,000 investment today could reach:
- $1000 annual cash payout after 7 years
- $2000 annual cash payout after 10 years
- $10,000 annual cash payout after 17 years’
I’d be the first to admit it can be easy to get caught up in the thrill of the chase. But it’s important to step back.
In Nick’s newsletter he takes a more holistic view of using the market to achieve your goals:
‘But never forget that financial decisions and their results are a means to an end. Whether you want to move to Malta, road trip around Australia, improve your golf handicap or spoil your grandchildren, your retirement is about money for life.’
Sounds good to me! Dividends may not give the adrenaline jolt of seeing a share price double, but if peace of mind if what you want, rather than thrills and spills, then you’ll enjoy Nick’s work.
And if you want more proof that hunting for dividends is a good strategy, remember that dividends accounted for 99.76% of the income for the richest man in the world – Warren Buffet.
Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers
From the Port Phillip Publishing Library
Special Report:
Retire Rich, Happy and Free From Money Worries
Daily Reckoning:
This Trifecta Means You Should Be Following the Gold Story
Money Morning:
The Hong Kong Dollar: If This Red Flag Goes Up, Buy it
Pursuit of Happiness:
Good News for Freedom
Diggers and Drillers:
Five Reasons Why Gold Stocks Are Set to Rebound
