InvestMacro Forex News

By CountingPips.com

The latest weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders added to their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar for a fifth consecutive week last week. The bets for American currency continue to be at the highest overall long position since July 17th 2012, according to Reuters research.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, registered an overall US dollar long position of $25.46 billion as of Tuesday March 12th. This was an increase from a total long position of $23.57 billion that was registered on Tuesday March 5th, according to the CFTC’s COT data and trader position calculations by Reuters, which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Futures Positions:

The individual currency contracts quoted directly against the US dollar last week saw increases for the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso while the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc had a declining number of net contracts compared to the previous week.

Individual Currency Charts:

EuroFX:

EuroFX: Large trader and speculator sentiment for the euro improved slightly last week after declining for four consecutive weeks. Euro contracts edged up to a total net position of -24,787 contracts in the data reported for March 12th following the previous week’s total of -26,116 net contracts on March 5th. This is a change of +1,329 contracts from the previous week.

Euro spec positions, two weeks ago on March 5th, were at their lowest level so far in 2013 and the lowest standing since December 11th 2012 when positions stood at -31,623 contracts before last week’s turnaround. EuroFx speculative contracts have now been in bearish territory for three weeks running.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 213,113
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -24,787
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +35,920
Small Traders Net Positions: -11,133

Great Britain Pound:

GBP: British pound sterling spec positions continued to decline last week for an eighth consecutive week and fell to their lowest standing since October 2011. British pound speculative positions decreased to a total of -49,800 net contracts on March 12th following a total of -43,849 net contracts that were reported on March 5th. This was a weekly change of -5,951 large trader contracts.

Pound speculator positions have now been in a bearish position for five straight weeks since crossing over on February 5th and are at the lowest level since October 25th 2011 when positions equaled -50,147 contracts.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 297,130
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -49,800
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +82,484
Small Traders Net Positions: -32,684

Japanese Yen:

JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts decreased sharply last week to decline to the lowest level since December. Japanese yen positions dropped to a total of -93,763 net contracts reported on March 12th following a total of -73,351 net short contracts on March 5th. This is a weekly decrease of -20,412 positions from the prior week.

Yen positions are at their lowest point since December 11th 2012 when short positions equaled -94,401 contracts.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 288,474
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -93,763
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +133,865
Small Traders Net Positions: -40,102

Swiss Franc:

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions continued to descend last week for a fourth consecutive week and are at the lowest level since August 2012. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures dropped to a total of -13,488 contracts on March 12th following a total of -11,450 net contracts reported for March 5th. This is a weekly change of -2,038 from the previous week.

Swiss franc net positions have now been on the short side for four straight weeks and are at the lowest level since August 21st 2012 when positions totaled -15,662 contracts.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 69,408
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -13,488
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +26,175
Small Traders Net Positions: -12,687

Canadian Dollar:

CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined lower once again last week to decrease for an eighth consecutive week and to the lowest level since before 2010. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of -53,397 contracts as of March 12th following a total of -46,663 net contracts that were reported for March 5th. This is a weekly change of -6,734 net contracts following a sharp weekly change of -25,230 the previous week.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 249,150
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -53,397
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +67,665
Small Traders Net Positions: -14,268

Australian Dollar:

AUD: The Australian dollar rebounded last week after decreasing for the previous six consecutive weeks. Aussie speculative futures positions rose to a total net amount of +23,266 contracts on March 12th after totaling +7,149 net contracts as of March 5th. This is a weekly change of +16,117 in net positions following the previous week’s -18,546 change.

Australian dollar contracts, on March 5th, were at their lowest level since June 26, 2012 when positions equaled just -2,159 contracts.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 183,095
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: +23,266
Commercial Traders Net Positions: -23,311
Small Traders Net Positions: +45

New Zealand Dollar:

NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions increased slightly last week following declines for two consecutive weeks. NZD contracts rose to a total of +19,350 net long contracts as of March 12th following a total of +19,044 net long contracts on March 5th. This constitutes a weekly change of +306 net contracts to March 12th.

The New Zealand dollar positions have stayed above the +19,000 contracts threshold for ten consecutive weeks.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 32,813
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: +19,350
Commercial Traders Net Positions: -20,431
Small Traders Net Positions: +1,081

Mexican Peso:

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts rebounded last week after falling for seven straight weeks. Peso positions increased to a total of +113,770 net speculative positions as of March 12th following a total of +93,521 contracts that were reported for March 5th. This is a weekly change in net large peso speculator positions of +20,249 contracts.

Peso speculative positions are now back over the +100,000 threshold after falling under this level on March 5th for the first time since November 27th 2012.

March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data

Total Open Interest: 192,764
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: +113,770
Commercial Traders Net Positions: -122,739
Small Traders Net Positions: +8,969

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis

By Investment U

In focus today; a nation of deadbeats, Transocean (NYSE: RIG) and the SITFA…

In mid-January the president said, “We are not a nation of deadbeats, we pay our bills.”

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article the numbers tell a very different story.

This current generation of Americans has set records for defaults, not just for the US but in all of recorded history, to the tune of $585 billion. That’s $6000 per household.

And, according to the Journal, there’s a lot more to come.

Household debt today is three times what it was in 1998 and the so called reduction in debt that we have been hearing about on the news has been more bank write offs of bad loans than payment from the folks who owe it.

Households are defaulting on $35 to $40 billion dollars of debt a year, and have been for the past few years.

The Journal said, Americans have walked away from $3 in debt for every $2 paid.

Maybe we aren’t all deadbeats, but there must be a lot of them out there.

Can you imagine how bad the financial collapse would have been if everyone, banks included, had their feet held to the fire?

Either money really does grow on trees in Washington, or someone will eventually have to pay the bills. A bill so big it is almost unbelievable.

Will Transocean Become an MLP in 2014?

Transocean is making big strides since the Gulf oil disaster and has attracted some very big attention.

Carl Ichan, the billionaire and activist investor stated he intends to own 3.5% of the company. That would make him the third largest stock holder behind two mega institutions.

A MarketWatch article stated that Ichan might be in line for a big cash distribution if RIG shifts its structure to an MLP. Analysts give it no chance of happening this year but it appears to be in the cards.

RIG’s earnings beat analyst’s expectation in the recent quarter and since the announcement, Ichan has been screaming for a $4 per share dividend from the $6 billion in cash the company has on its books.

According to Barron’s, drillers like RIG show better share prices in an MLP structure than in a traditional corporate set up. And, better yet, most of the tax burden in an MLP would be tax deferred. MLP’s do not pay corporate taxes.

Barrons says compared to its biggest rival, Schlumberger, RIG is cheap trading at just nine times 2014 earnings while Schlumberger is sitting at about 13 times. And RIG only has to hit its mid-2014 estimates to show earnings growth of 27%.

Numbers like these and the fact that as the yield battle with Ichan develops will see another pop in the stock.

The shares are currently trading at $52 to $53 a share, but hit a high of $161 in 2008 and were at about $85 just before the Gulf disaster.

Take a look at RIG, and there’s an  report below that is worth reading. Just click on the link.

[Editor’s Note: We’ve also uncovered a technology company that is likely to shift toward REIT status in the next two years. In the meantime its actually hiding its immense cash flow for tax purposes. But this should prove to be a huge catalyst for the stock. For the full story, click here.]

Slap in the Face Award: Crooked Banker Edition

This week the sitfa goes to the Attorney General, Eric Holder and an Iowa Senator, Charles Grassley.

During a recent Senate hearing Senator Grassley asked the AG why no banker has ever been prosecuted by the DOJ for their role in the financial collapse.

The question was fielded by an Assistant AG and his answer might be one of the most outrageous you’ll ever hear.

This is incredible; the Assistant AG said the DOJ consults experts on the subject to determine if a prosecution would hurt the economy. He admitted that the decision to prosecute is not a function of law, it is dependent on the economic impact it has on the country and the world economy.

That’s insane enough, but Grassley’s response was even better.

Grassley essentially said he understood and agreed, but he’s concerned.

Concerned!

Trillions of dollars disappeared and he’s concerned.

I should have been a banker.

Good Investing,

Steve

Article By Investment U

Original Article: Is Carl Icahn Banking on Transocean (NYSE: RIG) Becoming an MLP?

By www.CentralBankNews.info

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Energy: Dance Dance Revolution

This one’s a little left field compared to how we usually cover energy stories. Nonetheless it makes a fascinating case for alternative ways of creating energy.

First, let’s get a basic understanding of Piezoelectricity. If you’re wondering what the heck that is, in short, it’s the energy created by stress applied to certain solid materials…it’s electricity from pressure (vibrations).

But if we (Sam) may now digress ever so slightly. The Dutch love a good nightclub (can vouch for this as our family heritage is Dutch). And what does one do when typically at a nightclub? Dance.

Believe it or not, some creative Dutch designers from Studio Roosegaarde have pieced together dancing at a nightclub and piezoelectricity! They call it the sustainable dance floor.

The idea behind it is the dance floor vibrates from the dancing, which in turn creates energy to power the lighting and stage equipment. We think harnessing the power of ‘the boogie’ and the ‘Gangnam Style’ would be the best ways to really get the power pumping.

What this really means though is that everywhere we move we create vibrations and energy. Vibrations and energy when harnessed in the right way can lead to a vast array of power gains and efficiencies. This type of experimental work also shows us that there are people from all different aspects of industry looking at ways of solving some of the world’s big problems.

Maybe the future isn’t about just one way of solving our energy and power problems. But hundreds if not thousands of different ways being used together to be more sustainable and energy efficient.

Gold: Will Gold or Shares Do Best in 2013?

What has gold done since we wrote to you in last week’s Money Weekend? Er, not much.

And quite frankly we’re not convinced it will do much in the near future. Whether that’s days, weeks or months we can’t say. But what we can say is that it’s surely testing the patience of ‘fair weather’ gold investors, i.e. those investors who only bought gold because they expected to make quick gains.

The fate of the gold price has even sparked some discussion around the office. As you’ve probably read over the past couple of weeks, your editor is concerned that gold is behaving just like any other electronically traded asset.

What we mean by that is the vast majority of people who buy and sell the gold exchange traded funds (ETF’s) have no interest in ever taking physical delivery of the gold that underlies the ETF.

Heck, most of them probably aren’t even sound money advocates. Just in the same way that many investors buy and sell shares without really caring about what the company does.

But my old pal, Greg Canavan (editor of Sound Money.Sound Investments) isn’t so sure. He says there are still plenty of people buying gold for wealth preservation…a kind of insurance. In his latest weekly update he showed two charts comparing the performance of the US S&P 500 and the gold price. We’ve reproduced them below:

S&P 500

US Dollar Gold Price

Greg says about these charts:

‘The world’s largest stock market index has gone nowhere over the past 13 years. And everyone’s talking about a new bull market?

‘In contrast…[the 20 year chart of gold]…looks much more like a bull market (in progress) to me. Yet the perception is that the gold bull market is over and a new one is beginning in equities. That’s market logic and crowd think for you!’

We like Greg’s point. But we also think that markets behave irrationally at times (some would argue they’re always irrational). It’s for that reason we believe stocks will do better than gold this year, next year, and possibly into 2015.

Of course, we could be wrong. And we’re not about to sell any of our gold in order to buy stocks. But we are using new cash flows in order to increase our share exposure – something we’ve advised investors do for more than a year.

That said, we’re keeping a close eye on the market for signs of a sell-off. Our in-house technical trader, Murray Dawes, says the market is approaching a key technical level right now that could have a big impact on the market’s direction for the rest of this year.

Technology: Science, Technology and Innovation at 345kph

We thought that as we hear the sound of 22, 2.4 Litre V8′s humming around near the office at an astonishing 18,000RPM we should give credit to the technical innovation that Formula One^TM (F1) has given us over the years.

Ron Dennis, Executive Chairman of the McLaren Group sums it up well:

‘Intrinsically, at its heart, it (Formula One^TM) is about technology and scientific innovation carried out under the extreme of time pressures, with a relentless fortnightly assessment of progress and performance.’

No matter where you look it’s pretty hard to find industry that brings together aerodynamicists, quantum mechanics, computer scientists, engineers, fluid dynamicists, fabricators, sports scientists and race car drivers.

So it’s no surprise that in an environment like this (‘an Intersection’ as Frans Johansson describes in The Medici Effect) innovative and cutting edge technologies are born.

To outline a couple of the F1 breakthroughs you may have heard of:

1. Carbon fibre. In its early days companies such as Rolls-Royce used carbon fibre to create parts and components for their engines. But the first carbon fibre monocoque (structural skin) was raced in 1981 by John Watson in the McLaren MP4/1. This was the first time a monocoque had been constructed from carbon fibre. To see the level of safety this gave drivers, have a look at John’s demonstration at Monza. Because of F1′s advances in the use of carbon fibre we now find it in everyday items like cars, bikes, prosthetics, planes, golf clubs and furniture.
2. ‘Green’ Technologies. Surprisingly to some, more recent breakthroughs have been in engine and fuel efficiency. Next year the 2014 season will require all F1 engines be 1.6 litre (less capacity than a Toyota Corolla) V6′s. This is a far cry from 3 litre V10′s in 2005. Not only that, but the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) has said along with the Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems (introduced in 2008) teams may now use pioneering Heat Energy Recovery Systems. These together will be a major factor in how the engine produces its total power. Without these ‘green’ systems, team effectively are running with their feet tied together.

So next time someone brings up the subject of how horrible F1 is for the world (these conversations usually pop up around Melbourne Grand Prix time) use those two simple examples. You might find yourself in the midst of a healthy debate on the benefit that F1 technology brings to us.

Further to this if you happen to switch over the TV to watch the race on the weekend, or are trackside enjoying it all first hand, have a look at the pit lane activity. Like a swarm of bees, all those scientist and engineers buzzing about are the true innovators of some of the modern technologies we often take for granted.

Health: Why Something So Bad Could Be Something So Good

There’s no doubt that cigarettes are bad for your health. Even pack a day smokers should agree on that. So what if we told you that there’s actually something good about a cigarette? (We aren’t condoning smoking cigarettes, and neither does the rest of this article provide sufficient reason to keep puffing away, or start. We hope you get that distinction.)

Over the last few years a number of studies (‘Smoking, nicotine and Parkinson’s disease’, by Maryka Quick at the Parkinson’s Institute is one example) have repeatedly found that smoking over a period of time significantly lowers the risk of developing Parkinson’s disease (PD). Compared with those who have never smoked, or smoked for shorter periods of time, the results are conclusive.

So is there something in a cigarette that provides the answer to slowing down, or even reducing the effect of PD in those diagnosed?

Scientists don’t know the answer to that yet. But thanks to the Michael J. Fox Foundation (MJFF), researchers at The Philipps University and University of Rochester Medical Center are having a really good crack at finding out. The suspicion is nicotine is the key to the PD problem. So with the backing of the MJFF a new clinical trial has been set up in the US and Germany. You can check out the podcast about it here.

What the trial is planning to do is test the impact of a simple nicotine patch on those in the early stages of PD. We won’t know the results of the trial for 12 months, but seeing as there is no current drug to hinder or decrease the impact of PD this is one to keep an eye on.

Mining: Welcome the New Breed of Tech Entrepreneurs

[Ed note: The following is adapted from the latest weekly update sent to Australian Small-Cap Investigator subscribers.]

Today we find ourselves at the beginning of another Space Race. But this time round it’s not governments, it’s private industry. It’s the commercialisation of space.

The real financial opportunities they see are chasing the abundance of resources and mineral deposits contained in the asteroids flying around the planet.

To give you an idea of exactly how big a resource is out there, in 1997 there were 33,000 known asteroids orbiting the sun within reach of earth. Today it’s over 610,000, as astronomers find more of these flying rocks.

Why does this matter? For a start, the team from Planetary Resources, where John S. Lewis, Professor of Planetary Science at the University of Arizona, has been consulting, claim one asteroid (only a few hundred metres wide) could contain more than 1.5 times the known world-reserves of the platinum group of metals.

Still it’s seen as the realms of science fiction. Some doubters say it’s crazy to think we could mine an asteroid for its resources. The doubters don’t see an economically viable reason to do it at all and they say the cost outweighs the benefit.

For instance, if a solid gold asteroid the size of the Melbourne Cricket Ground passed by the earth, even the possibility of someone ‘mining’ this gold would have a drastic impact on the gold price. This could make the prospect of mining the Asteroid’s gold a marginal business and therefore not worthwhile.

Now, this may still sound a bit ‘Star Trek’, but history confirms the speed with which crazy ideas become reality. The dedication is there and there are a number of competing firms. They all want to be the first to make space a commercial reality.

And it’s not just space. The idea of deep-sea mining is starting to gain traction too, and will probably happen before ‘asteroid mining’.

But anyway, what this means is you can expect the new Space Race to move just as quickly as the last. In the years ahead you’ll likely see space tourism lead to hotels in space (one company is already working on this) and from mining asteroids to mining and populating Mars.

Sound crazy? Maybe. But as we said above, sometimes the craziest ideas become the most successful.

Kris Sayce and Sam Volkering

Join Money Morning on Google+

From the Archives…

Why the Stock Market Boom is on Pause
8-03-2013 – Kris Sayce

Why the Dow Jones Record High Doesn’t Matter
7-03-2013 – Murray Dawes

Taking China’s Economic Pulse from Hong Kong
6-03-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

Buy Gold When They’re Crying…Sell Gold When They’re Yelling
5-03-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

Do You Want to Be Right About Investing, or Do You Want to Make Money?
4-03-2013 – Kris Sayce

Source: Stockopedia – Stock Market Research Network.

Everywhere you go these days you hear yet another investor singing the virtues of investing in low cost index trackers. Frankly the sales pitch makes sense doesn’t it? It’s very easy to understand and goes something like this:

“The majority of active fund managers underperform the market averages so why should you pay 2% for the privilege? If you buy an index fund you can guarantee average performance and thus beat the average fund manager.”

It seems that this idea is winning. The mainstream press sings the praises of low cost passive investing, while the knives are out for active fat cat fund managers. Meanwhile a Tsunami of money in the fund management industry is flowing into passive vehicles, and the flow of funds into the big providers like Vanguard is quite astonishing. The advisory community is voting with its feet and has decided that index investing is the light.

But my nostrils have started flaring from a growing stench of groupthink and I can’t help thinking that somehow this is all going to end in tears.

The ultimate piggyback ride

In a way, index investing is the ultimate piggyback ride on the coattails of the active management community. If you think about it, the selection of stocks that are included within the major indices is solely due to the discerning opinion of the active management community. These professionals bid the price of a stock up until it becomes a candidate for promotion to the relevant major index – such as the FTSE100 or Samp;P500. At this point index funds jump on the bandwagon and buy. The idea that this is a ‘passive’ process is beyond me – it’s an active decision to ride on the coattails of other people’s decision making.

The irony is that index funds haven’t had to pay the salaries of the people who pick their stocks for them. Index investing has been monstrously successful partly due to the fact that through this trick they’ve kept the costs of management extremely low. If there were any justice index funds would pay a tax to the active management community for their service.

But piggybacking can only be a successful strategy if you don’t get too heavy for your ride. As index investors have started to dominate the stock markets they have started to create some terrible unintended consequences. The horse’s knees are starting to buckle.

When success breeds failure

There was an excellent paper written in 2010 by Professor Jeffrey Wurgler of NYU Stern School of Business that I highly recommend reading. He preaches that the stock market has only a finite capacity to absorb passive investment funds without materially and detrimentally impacting the market.

The wall of money investing in passive trackers is causing prices to detach from reality – inclusion in the Samp;P500 index causes a 9% jump on average in the stocks price – but it doesn’t stop there. There is evidence that Samp;P 500 membership creates a price premium of 40% over non members. Many commentators, including the excellent blog at Psyfitec have warned of a looming ‘index bubble’, while Morck and Yang suggest that investing in these indices is essentially a “large cap growth and momentum strategy that can’t last forever – this “index bubble” will pop“.

But there’s more, he suggests the whole market structure is creaking. When a stock is added to an index it’s price action detaches from the rest of the market and it “begins to move more closely with its new 499 neighbours. It is as if it has joined a new school of fish”. This accentuates gross price distortions and means that real valuations are less likely to be realised.

The delicious irony is that this creates an environment where large cap active fund managers can no longer harvest their expected returns from value situations. We’ve seen many great investors, even legends like Bill Miller, lose their way in recent years. Could it be that passive investors are slowly killing the hand that fed them in the first place? That active investors actually underperform due to the growing load on their back? I can’t help but hear the echo of Aesop’s fables in this story – that index investors are killing the goose that laid their golden egg.

Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater

Everybody should read John Bogle’s classic “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing“. His teachings on the ‘relentless rules of humble arithmetic‘ and minimising costs are priceless. Passive investing has huge merits but there are perhaps better ways to do it than investing in the big market cap weighted index trackers.

In this respect, Joel Greenblatt’s latest book, “The big secret for the small investor” is a great eye-opener. It preaches that many would be better off investing in equally weighted or fundamentally weighted funds. But even better than this is to build your own portfolio around solid and sound investment principles. Greenblatt preaches a mantra that we at Stockopedia stand by, that you can beat these index funds by creating your own low cost systematic investment strategy and investing directly in the underlying shares.  We are building the tools to do this and believe fundamentally that it’s a saner approach than the growing index groupthink in much of the institutional money management world.

Further reading:

• FT Alphaville – “Did noone ever consider that index investing was dangerous“
• Psyfitec – “Hubble Bubble Index Trouble“
• Canadian Financial DIY – “Index investing victim of its own success“

Stockopedia

Original Article: Index funds are parasites and are going to kill the market

By Justice Litle, www.insideinvestingdaily.com

Crude oil remains the most important commodity on the planet. Without
it, economic and political life as we know it would cease to function.

Four BIG trends will determine where prices go next:

• China’s transition to No. 1 oil importer.
• The death of Hugo Chavez.
• Iran’s distribution of Chinese-made weapons.
• New projections for the U.S. gas boom.

1) China’s transition to No. 1 oil importer

Says Javier Blas, commodities editor of the Financial Times:

China has overtaken the U.S. as the
world’s largest net importer of oil, in a generational shift that will
shake up the geopolitics of natural resources. […]

The U.S. has been the world’s largest
net importer of oil since the mid-1970s, shaping Washington’s foreign
policy towards energy-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and
Venezuela.

America is headed in the direction of energy self-sufficiency…
making slow but compounding strides to wean itself off fuel imports.
China is headed in the opposite direction. It’s becoming more dependent
on foreign oil sources to keep its economy moving.

This sea change favors America. All the talk of China having the U.S. over a fiscal barrel pales in prospect to the dragon’s growing energy vulnerability…

2) The death of “El Presidente”

With 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves, Venezuela is the
fourth-largest oil supplier to America. And yet under the reign of “El
Presidente” oil production dropped by a fifth. This was due to the
state-owned oil giant, PDVSA, falling into gross neglect and disrepair,
as Chavez turned it into an arm of the welfare state.

Chavez’s passing means new opportunity for the Western oil majors to
re-enter Venezuela, renegotiate contracts that Chavez had torn up, and
provide manpower and expertise to help get Venezuelan oil flowing faster
again. This is a longer-term geopolitical positive, but with little
impact on short- to medium-term instability.

1. The threat from Iran

Iran’s attainment of Chinese-made weapons is raising hackles. Via The New York Times:

An Iranian dhow seized off the Yemeni coast was carrying
sophisticated Chinese antiaircraft missiles, a development that could
signal an escalation of Iran’s support to its Middle Eastern proxies,
alarming other countries in the region and renewing a diplomatic
challenge to the United States.

The Middle East has long been a giant fireball in waiting. It is
becoming clearer by the day that Iran wants to strike the match…

1. America ‘s energy revolution

As The Wall Street Journal reports:

U.S. natural-gas production will
accelerate over the next three decades, new research indicates,
providing the strongest evidence yet that the energy boom remaking
America will last for a generation.

The most exhaustive study to date of a
key natural-gas field in Texas, combined with related research under
way elsewhere, shows that U.S. shale-rock formations will provide a
growing source of moderately priced natural gas through 2040, and
decline only slowly after that…

The impact of the shale gas boom will be profound — especially as
natural gas makes inroads as a transportation fuel. Major corporations
such as FedEx and Caterpillar are already investing heavily in a switch
to natural gas powered vehicles. Electric cars and hybrids are also
strong candidates for natural gas consumption, as electric power plants
are increasingly fueled by natural gas.

In fact, there are powerful incentives on every level — military,
political, economic — for the U.S. to aggressively embrace shale gas.

I’ll be recommending ways to play these big trends in future issues of my global trends newsletter Strategic Wealth Report. Each one holds the potential for once-in-a-lifetime profits for investors who position themselves wisely.

Carpe Divitiae,

Justice

By Aaron Gentzler, insideinvestingdaily.com

Two weeks ago, I revealed how two groundbreaking free education sources, www.coursera.org and www.openculture.com, could help you save $43,000 a year (the average fee a private university charges today).

And last week, I explained
why low-cost associate degrees are a smart alternative to expensive
bachelor’s degrees. (In many states, such as Tennessee and Virginia,
associate degree holders on average earn more than bachelor’s holders.
Nationwide, 30% of associate’s holders make more than those folks with
bachelor’s degrees.)

Today, I want to tell you about a very special kind of skill you
need to succeed in the job market of tomorrow… and how young folks in
your family can start building these skills today.

Charles Hugh Smith of the alternative finance blog OfTwoMinds.com
calls the most necessary skills of tomorrow “improvisational skills.”
These are skills that you now need to have because of rapid advances in
technology.

One example Smith gives in a recent post
is automated boarding pass printing at airport check-in desks. Years
ago you had to stand in line and speak to an agent. Now, you can print
your boarding pass at an automated kiosk.

These days, airport check-in staff solve problems. They don’t do the
mundane work of checking you in anymore because technology now does
that for them. Staff now help with ticket changes or process the fee
for overweight bags.

The folks who can’t build the necessary “improvisational
skills” are no longer in customer-facing jobs. And they are likely out
of a job altogether.

Similarly, the employee at the cellphone store knows you have
already compared prices and models of available phones on the Internet
before coming to the store.

She must be ready to improvise and help you find the add-ons and
accessories you’re looking for. Simply selling you a phone you already
know about is not enough.

There are three important takeaways I want you to consider.

First, the best education is a debt-free one.

Second, don’t get more education than you need. In many cases, an
associate degree gives you all you need to get on the road to a
well-paying career path.

And third, no matter what career track you… or the young folks in
your family… choose, the skills you acquire must be improvisational.

So how do you acquire improvisational skills?

After a young person identifies a clear interest using the free
education sources I’ve mentioned before, I recommend they knock on
doors and volunteer their time. This requires patience and humility…
and the ability to improvise.

I know a young man, for example, who works as a chef at a mid-level
resort restaurant. He has a two-year degree from a culinary school. Of
course, he doesn’t want to spend his life as a chef at a resort
restaurant. He wants to be a chef at a world-class restaurant.

That’s why he went to the absolute best, most highly rated
restaurant in his area and volunteered to serve as an unpaid intern to
the chef. What professional would refuse this kind of initiative?

If a student in your family wants to be a software developer… and
takes courses online for free to build their interest… volunteering
or spending time as an unpaid IT intern at a local business will put
them face to face with real people and real situations. This will help
them build not only a resume, but also the improvisational skills
they’ll need to succeed over the long term.

As you’ve seen the past three weeks, there are many ways you can
take control of your future… or help your kids take control of their
future… without relying on the broken, debt-spewing higher education
cabal.

It starts with cutting out or reducing college debt loads — by
switching to free online courses or associate degrees. But it also
involves putting yourself out into the marketplace and acquiring the
No. 1 skill employers are looking for: the ability to think on your
feet.

Best regards,

Aaron

By WallStreetDaily.com

Samsung unveiled its new Galaxy S4 smartphone in New York City on Thursday.

Is the device a game-changer? Not exactly.

But since the device will be able to run on more carriers, sales should ramp up, nonetheless.

As Kwon Sung Ryul, an analyst at Dongbu Securities, says, “There was no ‘Wow’ factor, it only proved to the world that it’s getting harder to make a difference on the hardware side… But the number of carriers that will offer Galaxy S4 has increased from that of [the] S3, so overall sales are expected to improve.”

At the same time, Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales growth last quarter was nothing to write home about. It was the slowest in more than two years.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Look Out Apple, Samsung is Out for Blood

By Elliott Wave International/the Socionomics Institute

The similarities between Greece and pre-WWII Germany are striking.

• Nazi salutes.
• Praise for Adolf Hitler.
• Swastika-like banners.

Now, before you write off this warning as a run-of-the-mill, Nazi-name-dropping scare tactic, consider this recent report from the Socionomics Institute, a U.S.-based think tank that studies global trends in social mood. Here’s an excerpt from the Institute’s February publication of The Socionomist.

A rising political party known as Golden Dawn is resurrecting such practices, all hallmarks of Hitler’s Third Reich, in modern-day Greece, which has suffered a dramatic, five-year stock market decline.

 

From 1927 to 1932, Germany suffered a disastrous stock market decline, falling 73% over five years. Six million people were unemployed, and the government was weak. Germany suffered outside financial pressure in the form of reparations required by the Versailles Treaty and consequences of its involvement in World War I.

 

Adolf Hitler argued that the German government betrayed its people by signing the Versailles Treaty. He promised that if he were elected, the nation would stop paying the reparations. The position appealed to the German people’s anger and helped the Nazi leader become chancellor in January 1933.

 

Modern-day Greece has experienced an even larger five-year decline than 1920s-1930s Germany did, falling 88% since 2007, and the country has suffered a debt crisis. As a condition for bailouts aimed at helping Greece recover, the European Union has imposed tough austerity measures. The Greek government has implemented the measures. Meanwhile, the deepening negative social mood has fueled protests against them.

 

Nikos Zydakis, editor of the daily newspaper Kathimerini, says Greece is in an economic depression like that experienced by Germany in the 1930s. More than 90% of Greek households have experienced income reductions, with the average drop 38%. Unemployment in Greece now stands at a record 26.8% and is nearly 60% among Greece’s young adults. In November the Greek Parliament imposed tax hikes and spending cuts demanded by creditors. Supermarket sales in the country declined by 500 million euros ($669 million) last year, and people are burning wood because the price of electricity has risen and taxes on heating oil have increased.

 

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” goes an old saying attributed to American author Mark Twain. And new research from the Socionomics Institute sees a disturbing pattern of rhymes between modern-day Greece and pre-WWII Germany.

To be sure, market and political developments in Greece will have a significant impact on the future of Europe, the Americas and beyond.

The Socionomics Institute is an independent research firm devoted to the study of social mood and social action. As a partner to the world’s largest market forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International, the Institute puts the most important developing social trends around the world into context with Robert Prechter’s socionomic theory, which posits that social mood drives social action (not the other way around).Read the rest the Institute’s new February report to learn more about the developing threats out of Greece. The full report is available for free as part of a special promotion run by the Institute with EWI. Follow this link to read the full February issue of The Socionomist (a $19 value) – for free.