InvestMacro Forex News

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Hungary’s central bank, which earlier today cut its base rate for the eight time as expected, said it would consider cutting rates further as long as “medium-term inflationary pressures remain moderate and the uncertainty surrounding financial market developments diminishes.”
    The policy guidance by The National Bank of Hungary is similar to its stance in recent months, signaling it is likely to continue its easing cycle that was begun in August 2012. Since then, the central bank has cut rates by 200 basis points and this year rates have been cut by 75 basis points.
    The central bank said there is still a significant degree of spare capacity in Hungary’s economy and “inflationary pressure is likely to remain moderate in the medium term, and therefore the 3 percent target can be met with looser monetary conditions.”
    It said that recent fluctuations in Hungarian asset prices could not be “justified by fundamental forces” and this warranted a cautious approach to policy.
    In its latest inflation report, the central bank estimated consumer price inflation of 2.6 percent in 2013, down from 2012’s 5.7 percent and 2.8 percent in 2014. The central bank targets inflation of 3.0 percent.
    Hungary’s inflation rate eased to 2.8 percent in February from 3.7 percent in January.
    Hungary’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, it’s fourth quarterly contraction in a row, for an annual shrinkage of 2.7 percent.
    The central bank forecast growth of 0.5 percent in 2013, up from 2012’s 1.7 percent contraction, and expansion of 1.7 percent in 2014.
    
    www.CentralBankNews.info

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Morocco’s central bank held its key rate steady at 3.0 percent, saying inflation remains subdued -despite a raised forecast – and in line with its target.
    The board of Bank Al-Maghrib said inflation is forecast to remain around 2.2 percent in 2013 and 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2014, averaging 2.0 percent over the forecast horizon, “broadly in line with the objective of price stability in the medium term.”
     Morocco’s inflation rate eased to 2.2 percent in February from 2.6 percent in January and December while core inflation, which reflects the fundamental trend of price, remained below 1 percent, the Central Bank of Morocco said.
    In December the central bank estimated 2013 inflation of 1.7 percent and 1.5 percent in Q1 2014.
    Morocco’s central bank has held rates steady since March 2012 when it cut rates by 25 basis points.

    While international economic activity weak and uncertain, external inflationary pressures should largely remain absent, the bank said.
    Morocco’s Gross Domestic Product growth is estimated at 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, and below 3.0 percent for the full 2012 year. Despite uncertainty surrounding growth in Morocco’s major trading partners, the central bank estimates GDP growth of 4-5 percent this year, mainly due to higher agricultural activity.
    This forecast is unchanged from December.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

–       Latest OANDA trading apps for iPhone, iPad and Android bring desktop functionality to mobile devices, including customizable charts, overlays and indicators, price alerts and more

–       OANDA CEO – “There are no longer any compromises when it comes to mobile”

TORONTO – MARCH 26, 2013 – OANDA, a global provider of innovative foreign exchange trading services, today announced a significant update to its OANDA fxTrade mobile applications for iPhone, iPad, and Android devices.

OANDA’s fxTrade mobile app allows users to quickly monitor forex market activity as well as manage positions, control risk, and monitor account status and profitability while on the go. The free app’s intuitive design makes the most of native iPhone, iPad, and Android capabilities to provide features that traders need to stay on top of the fast-moving forex market.

“We are excited to finally bring robust desktop trading functionality to the smartphone,” said Trevor Young, Senior Director of Product Management at OANDA. “In the past three years our clients have progressed from merely checking positions and prices with our mobile app to using it to plan and execute trades. As mobile continues to evolve as the go-to computing platform, OANDA will be at the forefront of mobile trading technology design with our commitment to provide the types of trading experiences our customers expect from a trusted forex innovator.”

Key features of this new version of OANDA’s fxTrade mobile app include:

·         Advanced charting functionality that allows users to overlay various technical indicators for enhanced price-data analysis

·         Customizable charts in a greater range of intervals (ranging from 5 seconds to 1 day)

·         Full visibility into price action from a single screen, with continuous display of current prices even when manipulating chart parameters

·         A sleek user interface that allows easier chart navigation, one-handed chart manipulation, scrolling trade history, and pinch-to-zoom capabilities

·         Streaming news feeds from top providers such as Dow Jones, Thomson Reuters, 4Cast, and UBS Analysis (iPhone and Android only)

·         Push notifications for limit orders, stop loss and take profit actions, margin notifications, and price alerts (price-alert notifications are not available on iPad)

Continuous improvement: an OANDA hallmark

With this latest application update, OANDA continues its track record of innovation in mobile trading. Today’s release is the result of more than 18 months of work from the OANDA mobile development team, and incorporates user feedback from OANDA customers globally. Mobile devices already account for 30 percent of logins and 15 percent of trades for OANDA clients, a number that has risen rapidly since the company introduced its first mobile trading app in 2010.

“There are no longer any compromises when it comes to mobile,” said OANDA CEO K Duker. “With this new version of our trading app, we’re providing our customers with what they want: a robust platform at their fingertips and a great trading experience, no matter where they are. We’ve seen a strong increase in downloads and use of OANDA’s native mobile app in the last 12 to 18 months, and today’s product keeps our clients at the forefront of this industry trend.”

The OANDA mobile apps for iPhone and iPad users are available for download in the App Store, or on the Google Play apps store for Android-based smartphones and tablets. These apps complement the OANDA MetaTrader 4 mobile applications that are available for iPhone and Android smartphones and tablets.

About OANDA

*********************

OANDA Corporation has transformed the business of foreign exchange through an innovative approach to forex trading. The company’s award-winning online trading platform, fxTrade, introduced a number of firsts to the marketplace, including immediate execution; instant settlement on trades; trades of any size between one unit and 10 million units; and interest calculated by the second. OANDA’s powerful, flexible fxTrade platform is also accessible via mobile applications for iPad, iPhone, and Android devices.

In 2012, OANDA was named “Best Forex Provider” by the Financial Times and by Investors Chronicle; “Best FX Broker” by Forex Magnates; and was recognized by Investment Trends Singapore as providing “Best Value for Money” and “Highest Overall Client Satisfaction”. OANDA was also the first online provider of comprehensive currency exchange information. Today, the company’s OANDA Rate® data are the benchmark rates for corporations, auditing firms, and global banks.

OANDA has six offices worldwide, in Chicago, London, Singapore, Tokyo, Toronto, and Zurich. OANDA is fully regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the U.S. National Futures Association (NFA), the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC), the UK Financial Services Authority (FSA), and the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA).

By www.CentralBankNews.info

By www.CentralBankNews.info Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Turkey’s central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate steady at 5.5 percent but narrowed its interest rate corridor again by cutting the overnight lending rate, saying the recent increase in global uncertainties had lead to a slowdown in capital inflows.
    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut the overnight lending rate, the ceiling of the interest rate corridor, by 100 basis points to 7.50 percent. The central bank, which started narrowing the corridor in September last year,  left the overnight borrowing rate, the floor of the rate corridor, unchanged at 4.50 percent.
    The central bank also cut the lending rate at the late liquidity window by 100 basis points to 10.50 percent but kept the borrowing rate steady at zero percent.
    Last month the CBRT cut both the overnight lending and borrowing rates by 25 basis points but tightened the reserve requirements to slow down the growth of credit from capital inflows that is putting upward pressure on the Turkish lira.
    The CBRT said domestic demand was recovering in a healthy manner and exports remained strong despite weak global growth.

     Given the uncertain global environment, the central bank said it would remain flexible in both directions and the amount of funding to markets would be adjusted upward or downward when necessary.
    In light of the slowdown in global demand and commodity prices, there is a reduced risk of inflation, the CBRT said, adding that it would closely monitor domestic demand and prices.
    Turkey’s inflation rate eased to 7.03 percent in February, down from 7.31 percent in January.

    Last year the bank started cutting the lending rate from 12.50 percent while keeping the borrowing rate unchanged at 5.0 percent.
    In the first three months of this year, the CBRT has cut overnight lending rate by 150 basis points
and the overnight borrowing rate by 50 basis points.
    While narrowing and shifting the interest rate corridor downward last year, the CBRT kept the benchmark one-week repo rate steady until December when it was cut by 25 basis points, the first cut since August 2011.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

Richard Wiltshire is Chief of Foreign Exchange Dealing at ETX Capital – a spread betting company in London.

After what seemed like an eternity, EU and IMF representatives finally agreed upon bailout conditions for Cyprus.  The 11th hour deal on Sunday evening means that Cyprus will be receiving the €10billion it needs to refinance its beleaguered banks, but will it have ramifications in the currency market?

The bailout conditions state that Cyprus’ two biggest banks, The Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, will be split into a “good bank” and “bad bank” respectively.  The premise that sparked the bank run in the country last week, a tax on all depositors, has now been avoided, with deposits below €100k being protected by the new good bank.  However, larger deposits and underperforming loans will be “reformed” by the bad bank, effectively resulting in a tax for deposits above €100k.

During the sustained talks last week, the Euro performed relatively strongly, perhaps being galvanised by rumour risk sentiment.  The EUR/USD pair defended a key support level of the 200 DMA, which came in at 1.2870/80.

Indeed, risk sentiment looked to be strong when the positive news emerged on the bailout on Sunday night.  The 1.3050 level was reached in the EUR/USD pair before profit takers came in and the cross even survived a dip to 1.2940 when Cypriot president Anastasiades threatened resignation.

Can this risk sentiment be maintained?  Well, at looks as though any rally that was there has been overwhelmed by bearish tones.

The Cyprus agreement was something of a catastrophe for the IMF and the Troika, particularly after seeing the massive flight of capital from the island nation last week.  Ministers have been quick to point out that the Cyprus case is unique and a “one-off”, but further bank runs in Cyprus are expected this week and could be followed in Greece, Spain or Italy.

This is because of the comments made by Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who stated that the Cyprus deal could be a new “template” on how the IMF and Troika will handle bailout negotiations from now on.  This means that we could see further action taken against depositors, with the natural reaction for those wanting to protect their investments being to withdraw them from the banks.

A precedent has most certainly been set.  Germany’s rhetoric over the negotiations shows that they are keen on the idea of taxing depositors to fund bailout money – and Germany often gets its way.  Despite the assurances, investors will be wondering what is stopping the paymasters from applying this medicine to Spanish and Italian banks in the future.

Monday saw Moody’s issue a credit rating warning to several French banks and shares in the Spanish bank Bancaria took a dive at the start of the week as well.  With the Euro consolidating the sentiment by falling below 1.300, it would appear that the bears are controlling the market as of late.

The risk of similar measures spreading to bigger economies like Spain or Italy is very real.  Cyprus is also not certain to remain in the single currency, adding a whole different contagion argument.  This negative outlook will probably keep the Euro under wraps in some crosses, with a bearish outlook for the short term.  The EUR/USD pair is likely to see the 1.3000 range be a significant level for the bears.

We’ve broken through support at 1.2980 and we appear to have gone through 1.2920/30 support as well.  Stops below for the 1.2840 area wait. In the long-term, a clean break of this level could open up 1.2660/90 lows, last seen in mid November last year.

For the bulls out there, if we consolidate in the 1.2980 to 1.3050 range, the market may gain some confidence for a test above 1.3050/60, which would open up technical resistance level at 1.3130 (38.2% retracement). Above here stops are reported circa 1.3160 and a decisive break could see 1.3390/00 in play.

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Tuesday 26 March 2013, 08:30 EST

U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold dipped back below $1600 per ounce Tuesday morning in London, though it remained above yesterday’s low hit following news of the Cyprus bailout, while stocks and commodities were broadly flat and US Treasury bonds dipped.

“We continue to target the $1625.77 January low despite Monday’s sell-off,” says Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at Commerzbank.

“Given the business cycle is in the ‘recovery’ stage, investors lack a reason to increase their exposure to gold at present,” says a note from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which today cut its 2013 gold forecast by $10 an ounce to $1670, and its silver forecast from $32.70 to $32.40.

“Nevertheless, we believe markets have become very myopic and prices should pick up as inflationary pressures start to emerge and central banks continue to diversify reserves. Hence, we maintain a $2000 per ounce price target for 2014.”

Russia added to its gold reserves for the fourth month in a row last month, buying just under seven tonnes, according to International Monetary Fund data published Tuesday. Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia and Ukraine also bought gold in February.

Silver meantime continued to hover close to $28.80 an ounce this morning, in line with where it has spent much of the last three weeks.

On the currency markets, the Euro hovered below $1.29 against the Dollar during Tuesday morning’s trading. After initially ticking higher following the Cyprus bailout agreement, the Euro dropped by more than 1.5% against the Dollar yesterday, following comments from Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chair of the Eurogroup of single currency finance ministers.

“If there is a risk in a bank,” Dijsselbloem said yesterday, “our first question should be ‘Okay, what are you in the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalize yourself?’ If the bank can’t do it, then we’ll talk to the shareholders and the bondholders, we’ll ask them to contribute in recapitalizing the bank, and if necessary the uninsured deposit holders.”

Later on Monday however Dijsselbloem “back-tracked a bit” says Standard Bank currency strategist Steve Barrow.

“These sorts of comments perhaps suggest that rather than a new toughness around the bailout process, Dijsselbloem has, perhaps, just been a bit naïve and not appreciated that his comments could spark deposit flight [though we still think], the EU’s approach will be similar in the future should over-extended banking systems require bailouts.”

Following Dijsselbloem’s comments “international investors will be monitoring deposit flows [from European Central Bank data]” says a note from Dutch bank ING.

“[They will] also be looking at Luxembourg and Malta, given that bank assets to GDP is now a popular metric.”

“Now that Cyprus has broken the mold,” agrees INTL FCStone metals analyst Ed Meir, “we would not be surprised to see Europeans funneling their deposits away from banks domiciled in riskier countries to those in stronger ones. This could worsen the banking situation in the process and only intensify the ‘north-south’ divide.”

“If you live in Spain or elsewhere you would look at this and feel much more relaxed about the security of deposits,” counters Jim Leaviss, head of fixed income at M&G.

“It is obviously good news that the Eurozone deposit guarantee remains in place…in some ways it is good that it was tested to destruction, almost failed, but eventually held firm in the face of a collapsing banking system.”

Banks in Cyprus will remain closed until Thursday, according to this morning’s press reports, with a daily withdrawal limit of €100 from ATMs of the country’s two largest banks – one of which is to close as part of the bailout deal – in place since Sunday. Cyprus is also drawing up plans to keep capital controls in place once banks reopen.

“Capital controls are a major step backwards for Europe,” says Andrew Milligan, Standard Life Investments head of global strategy.

“It is very difficult for markets to understand the processes and procedures when a country needs assistance, which adds to the level of uncertainty and risk – even if it is manageable for now.”

Greek branches of Cypriot banks meantime are expected to open tomorrow, according to newswire Reuters, citing the Greek finance ministry.

Nine out of ten business leaders in Italy would support using the country’s gold reserves to collateralize a bond issue, while 85% of the general public would also back the idea, according to an Ipsos-Mori poll commissioned by the World Gold Council.

Ben Traynor

BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

EURUSD

Positive attitude towards the EURUSD that prevailed in the Asian session on Monday was changed into the negative one in the European session, as much as to say that the Europeans know better what is going on with the single currency. But it is decreasing, and there is no end in sight. Attempting to continue the increase that started at the end of the previous week has ended at 1.3047, from which the pair renewed it decrease. As a result the support at 1.2880 was passed; the euro touched the 1.2830 level and returned to the resistance of 1.2880. Theoretically, it should restrain the recovery attempts, where the pair should continue decreasing from. In case the strong support at
1.2825 is lost, the euro will drop towards the 27th figure. In order to improve its prospects, the pair is to move higher and consolidate above 1.3050.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD also decreased yesterday, but this was not due the weakening of the British currency. Nevertheless, the pair dropped to the 52nd figure, overcame it and reached the level of 1.5142. Overall, yesterday’s decrease does not mean the end of its upward correction, thus it is early for the pair bears to be happy about it. The decrease to 1.5140-1.5060 will not be a tragedy for the pound, but the loss of the last level is quite able to cast a gloom on its prospects. The continued growth towards the 1.5300-1.5320 proximity still looks quite possible.

USDCHF

Yesterday, there was not a pleasant experience for the bears in the USDCHF pair. Reduction in the pair ended at 0.9380. There the dollar started increasing again until it reached the resistance on the way to the 95th figure. Thus, there is still no movement observed in any particular direction, since the pair was trading in the range between the 0.9350 and 0.9566 levels. However, positive attitude towards the dollar remains, and it continues to be bought out on wanes. The pair’s drop below 0.9300 would weaken the American dollar.

USDJPY

The USDJPY finally broke through the support near 94.40-94.00, which caused the rates further to 93.53. But the bears failed to hold below the 94th figure, since the pair returned to the 94.45 resistance this time. However, the pair is still trading below the descending resistance line, which involves further development of the downward correction. Its increase above the 95th figure would mean resumption of the bullish trend in the pair.

provided by IAFT

By www.CentralBankNews.info    Angola’s central bank held its main policy rate, the BNA rate, steady at 10.0 percent, taking note of the inflation rate and stability in financial markets following the introduction of a new family of kwanza banknotes and coins.
    The National Bank of Angola (BNA), which cut its rate by 25 basis points in January after cutting by 25 points in 2012, said inflation rose by a monthly 0.82 percent in February, up from 0.61 percent in January.
    On an annual basis, inflation was largely steady at 9.04 percent in February from January’s 8.9 percent, which was a new low in Angola’s recent history.
    The BNA has for many years strived for an inflation rate below 10 percent.
    Credit extended to the economy rose by an annual 16.42 percent in February, continuing the recent growth and overnight LUIBOR was 6.2 percent, the BNA said.

    The average exchange rate of the kwanza against the U.S. dollar was 95.962 at the end of February from 95.94 end of January, maintaining its stability.
    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast in October that Angola’s economy would grow by 5.5 percent this year and 6.6 percent last year.

    www.CentralBankNews.info