Central Bank News Link List – May 29, 2013: U.S. interest rates could spike when Fed slows bond buying – OECD

By www.CentralBankNews.info Here’s today’s Central Bank News’ link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

Experts Share Critical Insight into Food Safety Drivers

By WallStreetDaily.com

As part of Wall Street Daily’s Keynote Speaker Series, I have a real treat for you today.

I scored an exclusive interview with two people that have unique insights into an aspect of life that impacts every last one of us – food safety.

  • Rich McKeown, former Chief of Staff for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. He’s currently the President and CEO of the internationally known healthcare and food safety consulting firm, Leavitt Partners.
  • Jennifer McEntire, Ph.D., former Senior Staff Scientist at the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT). She’s now the Senior Director of Food and Import Safety Practice at Leavitt.

Allow me to set the stage for you, as you’ll get more out of the interview by knowing the quick backstory…

Each year, approximately 48 million people suffer from foodborne illnesses. Of that total, 128,000 are hospitalized and 3,000 die, according to the CDC.

That’s just unacceptable, which is why Congress passed the Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) in January, 2011.

It represented the most sweeping reform to our food safety laws in almost a century.

In fact, the legislation went as far as granting the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authority to recall contaminated food, as well as the power to regulate many aspects of food production.

In our conversation, Mr. McKeown and Dr. McEntire reveal…

  • The market conditions that prompted such decisive legislation.
  • Why we could be approaching the “tipping point” for the entire food industry to take action. Just in the United States, we’re talking about two million farmers; 570,000 facilities in the food service segment; and 167,000 manufacturers, processors and warehouses.
  • An innovative technology developed by Park City Group (PCYG) – and adapted with insight from Leavitt Partners – that could improve visibility in the food supply system.

To hear for yourself, all you have to do is click on the image below. Enjoy!

5.29.2013 Food Safety Interview

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Experts Share Critical Insight into Food Safety Drivers

The Four Big Risks Massive Money Has Brought to the U.S. Economy

Five Big Risks Massive Money Printing Has Brought to the U.S. EconomyThe bond market, dear reader, is becoming vulnerable. By keeping interest rates so low and by the Federal Reserve actually buying U.S. Treasuries, bond prices have climbed and climbed…and the low yields on U.S. Treasuries have sent investors to the stock market and junk bonds. Any tightening in monetary policy will send the bond market into a tailspin.

But there’s more…

Next, the stock market rose to atmospheric levels as easy monetary policy remained in effect. Even I’m surprised at just how high this market has gone. But at the very moment the Federal Reserve shifts its monetary policy towards normalization, the market will be in jeopardy. We saw a slight episode of this in a sell-off in the key stock indices last week, when the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes suggested some members of the committee think the Federal Reserve should start to slow the rate of its quantitative easing. (Source: Federal Reserve, May 22, 2013.)

Moving on, public companies are borrowing money cheaply as a result of the favorable monetary policy environment, but these companies are not putting the borrowed money to good use. Instead of making investments in plant, equipment, and people, companies are buying back their shares to eventually make their corporate earnings look better.

In 2012, American companies spent $400 billion to buy back their shares; a startling 2.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S. economy is going to buy stock? Something’s not right with this. Since the beginning of the year to March 7, American companies have announced share buybacks worth a total of $111.6 billion—an increase of 96% from the same year-ago period. (Source: The Economist, April 6, 2013.)

Last but not least, pension funds are falling victim to easy monetary policy. One of the most basic principles of calculating pension obligation is identifying future values. Because of lax monetary policy, namely low interest rates, pension funds need more capital to fulfill their obligations. (Source: Washington Post, May 24, 2013.) The longer interest rates remain low, the bigger pension deficits will become, not just for insurance companies, but for union, private company, and government pension funds as well.

Readers of Profit Confidential know where I stand; keeping interest rates artificially low and printing lots of paper money can only go so far to help a company before these actions actually hurt the economy.

Remember, dear reader, back in 2007, when the housing market was the sole catalyst of the financial crisis that hit America. Today, thanks to a $7.0-trillion increase in the national debt under President Obama and the $3.0-trillion balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, several catalysts have been created—none less important than a bloated, overvalued stock market and inflation knocking at the door.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Yes, the amount of pessimism towards gold bullion is increasing daily. Data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed there were 79,416 short contracts (bets on the price falling) for gold bullion for the week ended May 21.

But while speculators increase their bets that gold bullion is going down in price, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), central banks from countries like Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan added gold bullion to their reserves in April in spite of falling gold bullion prices.

In April, the central bank of Russia added 269,000 troy ounces of gold bullion to its reserves, bringing its total holdings to 31.8 million ounces.

In the same month, gold bullion holdings at Turkey’s central bank grew by 586,000 ounces. The central bank of Azerbaijan bought the yellow metal for the fourth consecutive month in April—in December of 2012, this central bank didn’t have any gold bullion holdings at all.

The central bank of Kazakhstan has been accumulating gold bullion too. It bought more in April—adding another 85,000 ounces. The central bank of Kazakhstan now holds four million ounces of gold bullion in its reserves.

In the first quarter of 2013, central banks added a total of 109 tonnes of gold bullion to their reserves. What’s more interesting is that this first quarter was the seventh consecutive quarter central banks purchased more than 100 tonnes of gold bullion to add to their official holdings. (Source: World Gold Council, May 16, 2013.)

When I look at all this, it makes me more bullish towards gold bullion. As I have been harping on about in these pages for quite some time, through their actions, central banks will ultimately cause gold bullion prices to soar higher.

Central banks are considered to be the most conservative of all investors. As volatility in the foreign exchange market rises and the fundamentals of the world reserve currency (the U.S. dollar) come into question, why wouldn’t they buy even more gold bullion?

Central banks buying gold bullion in such high quantities shows me that they are losing trust in the fiat currency they usually hold in their reserves. They are looking for alternative ways to maintain their wealth, and gold bullion looks to be the only solution, as bonds are yielding next to nothing.

When it comes to gold bullion prices, I am not too concerned about daily fluctuations. I am keeping my focus on the long term, and as it stands right now, it’s bright.

What He Said:

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market rally of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for America.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, November 29, 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 14,279 in October 2007. A sucker’s rally developed in November 2007, which Michael quickly classified as a bear trap for his readers. By mid-November 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,726.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Canada holds rate, sees stimulus in place for some time

By www.CentralBankNews.info     The Bank of Canada (BOC) maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1.0 percent, as expected, and said “the considerable monetary stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required” due to continued economic slack, a muted outlook for inflation and a continued improvement in household imbalances.
    The BOC’s forward guidance is exactly the same as in April.
    Although Canada’s first quarter economic growth is expected to be stronger than the central bank projected in April, the BOC added that growth this year is expected to remain broadly in line wit its forecast from last month.

Gold Shorts Rejoice as Central Banks Buy Even More Gold?

Yes, the amount of pessimism towards gold bullion is increasing daily. Data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed there were 79,416 short contracts (bets on the price falling) for gold bullion for the week ended May 21.

But while speculators increase their bets that gold bullion is going down in price, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), central banks from countries like Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan added gold bullion to their reserves in April in spite of falling gold bullion prices.

In April, the central bank of Russia added 269,000 troy ounces of gold bullion to its reserves, bringing its total holdings to 31.8 million ounces.

In the same month, gold bullion holdings at Turkey’s central bank grew by 586,000 ounces. The central bank of Azerbaijan bought the yellow metal for the fourth consecutive month in April—in December of 2012, this central bank didn’t have any gold bullion holdings at all.

The central bank of Kazakhstan has been accumulating gold bullion too. It bought more in April—adding another 85,000 ounces. The central bank of Kazakhstan now holds four million ounces of gold bullion in its reserves.

In the first quarter of 2013, central banks added a total of 109 tonnes of gold bullion to their reserves. What’s more interesting is that this first quarter was the seventh consecutive quarter central banks purchased more than 100 tonnes of gold bullion to add to their official holdings. (Source: World Gold Council, May 16, 2013.)

When I look at all this, it makes me more bullish towards gold bullion. As I have been harping on about in these pages for quite some time, through their actions, central banks will ultimately cause gold bullion prices to soar higher.

Central banks are considered to be the most conservative of all investors. As volatility in the foreign exchange market rises and the fundamentals of the world reserve currency (the U.S. dollar) come into question, why wouldn’t they buy even more gold bullion?

Central banks buying gold bullion in such high quantities shows me that they are losing trust in the fiat currency they usually hold in their reserves. They are looking for alternative ways to maintain their wealth, and gold bullion looks to be the only solution, as bonds are yielding next to nothing.

When it comes to gold bullion prices, I am not too concerned about daily fluctuations. I am keeping my focus on the long term, and as it stands right now, it’s bright.

What He Said:

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the other major stock market indices finished yesterday with the best two-day showing since 2002. I’m looking at the market rally of the past two days as a classic stock market bear trap. As the economy gets closer to contraction, 2008 will likely be a most challenging economic year for America.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, November 29, 2007. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 14,279 in October 2007. A sucker’s rally developed in November 2007, which Michael quickly classified as a bear trap for his readers. By mid-November 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 8,726.

Article by profitconfidential.com

Tunisia holds rate steady to help stimulate exports

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Tunisia’s central bank held its key interest rate steady at 4.0 percent to help create an environment that can stimulate economic activity, in particular the export sector.
    The Central Bank of Tunisia, which raised its rate by 25 basis points in March, said growth estimates for the first quarter showed annual growth of 2.7 percent, down from 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, below the planned 4.0 percent growth for 2013.
   In 2012 Tunisia’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 3.6 percent, reversing a 1.9 percent contraction in 2011 when the economy suffered from political upheaval, known as the Arab Spring that began in Tunisia in December 2010.
    The decline in first quarter growth was due to lower output from agriculture, fishing and non-manufacturing such as mining, while manufacturing, transport and telecommunications showed a positive trend. Tourism, however, continues its decline since the beginning of the year.
    The dinar’s exchange rate “has faced some tensions” since early May, falling 4.1 percent against the euro and 6.1 percent against the U.S. dollar by mid-May due to demand from some firms for foreign exchange for import settlements or profit transfer, the central bank said in a statement after a meeting of its executive board on May 27.

     However, the bank added it had intervened to fine-tune the foreign exchange market to ease these pressures and by May 24 the rate had returned to a more normal rate of 2.139 dinars to the euro and 1.65 to the U.S. dollar.
    Tunisia’s inflation rate eased slightly in April to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent in March but the central bank, which also raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points in 2012, said the monthly rise in inflation of 0.7 percent “confirms persisting inflationary pressure for most consumer products despite a decrease in fresh food prices.”
    Despite a decline in Tunisia’s current account deficit fell to 2.5 percent of GDP in the first four months, down from 2.8 percent in the same period last year, the central bank said pressure on the balance of payments persisted due to a drop in the surplus of financial operations with other countries, in line with a tightening of income from foreign direct investment and drawings on medium and long term borrowing.
    The level of foreign currency reserves fell to the equivalent of 95 days of imports per May 24, down from 101 days a year earlier and 119 days at the end of 2012.
   
    www.CentralBankNews.info

“Vicious” Gold Moves “Insignificant” for Long-Run Focus as US Bond Yields Jump, Asian Shortages Spread

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Weds 29 May, 08:10 EST

WHOLESALE PRICES for physical gold rose Wednesday morning in London, hitting almost $1395 per ounce to gain 0.5% for the week so far.

Silver lagged gold, trading in line with last week’s finish at $22.42 per ounce, while world stock markets fell together with commodities and major government bond prices.

The US Dollar eased 0.5% on the currency markets, capping the price to buy gold below €1075 and £924 per ounce for Eurozone and UK investors respectively.

Tuesday’s expiry of US June gold futures contracts “made for some vicious price moves in both directions,” notes trading house Mitsui, pointing to the jump from $1375 to above $1400 as New York trade began.

“But ultimately the yellow metal remained firmly penned within its recent range,” the note adds, and the action was “far less significant for those with a longer focus.”

Yesterday also saw 10-year US Treasury yields jump as government bond prices fell, hitting a 14-month high above 2.2% and outpacing the latest Consumer Price Inflation reading by the widest margin since February 2011.

Ten-year UK gilt yields rose today above 2.0% for the first time in two months. They still lag UK inflation by 0.4% per year, however.

“We can see some Shanghai futures buying interest pushing the market higher,” Reuters quotes Peter Fung at Wing Fung dealers in Hong Kong, also noting the $25 premium to international spot prices for Chinese gold futures.

“Singapore is still facing a shortage,” said a local dealer to the newswire overnight, adding that customers wanting to buy gold must now wait until July for delivery.

Singapore premiums – over and above the international benchmark price, typically quoted for London delivery – have shot to a record $7 per ounce.

Some retail dealers are charging four times as much, however, asking 2% over spot prices for gold kilobars in Singapore according to wire reports.

“Premiums [in India] have dropped to $5-$7 an ounce this week,” the Wall Street Journal quotes Ketan Shroff, director at Penta Gold in Mumbai.

That’s half the levels seen last week in India, the world’s heaviest gold-buying nation.

After imposing new restrictions on consumer loans raised using gold trust funds and gold coins on Monday, the Reserve Bank of India said Tuesday that it won’t seek to stop consumers being able to buy gold coins from commercial banks.

However, “Some more steps, if necessary, would have to be taken,” the finance minister P.Chidambaram said at the same conference yesterday in Pune, pointing again to the role of gold imports in India’s large trade deficit.

“I appeal to the people of India to contain their passion for gold,” Chidambaram said.

On the economic front meantime, both the Organization for Economic Co-Operation & Development and the International Monetary Fund today released new forecasts for 2013.

Washington’s IMF trimmed its prediction for China’s GDP growth from 8.0% to 7.75%.

The Paris-based OECD said the Eurozone – the world’s largest single-currency economy – will shrink by 0.6%.

“Protracted weakness,” says the think tank, “could evolve into stagnation with negative implications for the global economy.”

An economics book called Why We Should Leave the Euro has leapt to top the bestseller list in Portugal, which received a €78 billion bail-out from its Euro partners and the IMF in 2011.

The European Commission in Brussels is expected today to allow 3 of the region’s 5 largest economies to overshoot their budget deficit targets.

New data Wednesday morning showed the 330-million citizen Eurozone’s broad money supply growing 3.2% in April from a year earlier.

Private-sector loans, however, contracted by 0.9%.

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

Germany Unemployment rate climbs

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The rate of unemployment in Germany has risen by 21,000 to 2.96 million in May, according to reports from the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency. Analysts and economists are expecting an increase by 5,000, according to a news survey taken by Bloomberg. The adjusted unemployment rate seized at 6.9 percent.

The figures for the German unemployment rate were increased after unemployment fell in the course of spring growth, rising by a rate of 6,000 every month. Germany’s Ifo index measured the economic sentiment and expectation rose to 105.7 in May from 104.4.

The German gross product advanced  by 0.1 percent in the first quarter after 0.7 percent fall in the previous three months. The German-adjusted GDP slipped 1.4%in the first quarter, according to reports from the German’s statistical office Destatis.

The GDP is predicted to increase by 0.4%in 2013 and by 1.8% the year after. Exportation is expected to have improved and move at a faster pace then its current slow state, despite the fall in external orders for industrial goods.

Some of the major companies are benefiting from the high demand in the rapid economic growth. Such as Beiersdorf AG (BEI), reported that the first-profit quarter profits that exceeded analysts’ estimate as higher market sales offset a drop in Europe. While Heidelberg Cement AG (HEI), the third-largest cement maker said that the first quarter profits increased by 3.3 as the growth and job cuts in North America offset the effect of the weather conditions in the market.

The post Germany Unemployment rate climbs appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Global stock market rallies as U.S Treasury yield jumps

By HY Markets Forex Blog

The global market rallied on Tuesday .According to reports central bank stimulus measures may go ahead with the release of the strong US economic data. Yields on U.S treasuries soared to its highest level in over a year as prices slipped.

Yields have increased ever since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that the U.S central bank might start slowing down its bond purchases to boost economic recovery.

Wall Street closed 0.7% higher, according to reports, indicating the rise in the US house prices in over five years. While S&P 500 closed at 0.6%, the broad FTSE 100 closed 1.6% higher and France’s Cac closed at 1.4%.

Tokyo’s Nikkei stock index .N225 reached a 5-1/2-year high last week before it dropped to 7.3 on Thursday.

The U.S stocks recovered from its weakness, as the US dollar bounced back against the Japanese yen and euro after the data on U.S consumer confidence and home prices said the economy was improving.

The rate of the U.S consumer confidence increased to its highest level in over five years in May.  Treasury yields have helped boost the demand in dollar investments.

The U.S. dollar rallied against the Japanese yen and euro as the sturdy U.S economic data highlights views from the Fed, regarding the reduction in bond purchases.

Against the yen, the U.S. dollar rose by 1.2% to 102.09yen, recovering from the two-week low of 100.68 last week.

The Swiss franc slipped to 1.1% against the U.S dollar at 0.9740. The dollar index rose 0.6 % to 84.172 DXY.

Escaping its safe-haven status, Gold dropped by 1 percent, while spot gold fell by 1 percent to $1,380.81 an ounce.

 

 

The post Global stock market rallies as U.S Treasury yield jumps appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.

Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog

Thailand cuts rate 25 bps, says ready to take further action

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Thailand’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent due to continued concern over financial stability and said it was closely monitoring economic developments, financial stability risks and capital flows and “stands ready to take appropriate action as warranted.”
    The Bank of Thailand (BOT), which finds itself on the front lines of the currency wars, said downside economic risks had increased from lower-than-expected growth in the first quarter and “as inflation remains well within the target, monetary policy has room to further cushion against downside risk to domestic demand.”
    Thailand’s  Gross Domestic Product contracted by 2.2 percent in the first quarter from the fourth for annual growth of 5.3 percent, sharply down from the fourth quarter’s 19.1 percent expansion when growth was boosted by fiscal stimulus measures.
    The BOT’s rate cut was largely expected and follows a recent statement by the bank’s governor that monetary policy could be eased if the economy was losing momentum. On Monday Thailand’s finance minister said he hoped the BOT would cut the policy rate by more than 25 basis points.