Currency Speculators turned bullish on US Dollar bets, Euro drops to the bearish side

By CountingPips.com

cot-values

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators turned around their bets to become bullish on the US dollar last week.  The previous four weeks had seen speculators and traders on the bearish side.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $4.51 billion as of Tuesday May 13th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$6.54 billion from the -$2.03 billion total short position that was registered on May 6th, according to Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar aggregate bullish position is the highest USD level since March 11th when total bullish contracts equaled +$10.56 billion.  The bullish gain of $6.54 billion was the largest weekly increase since November 12th 2013 when positions jumped by $7.44 billion for the week.

Overall for the week against the other major currencies, speculators bet in favor the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso last week while there were weekly declines for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar.

 

cot-standings

Notable changes:

  • Euro positions fell sharply over to the bearish side for the first time since February 2nd as the European Central Bank suggested they were open to easing monetary policy in June
  • British pound sterling positions fell for a 4th straight week after reaching a multi-year high on April 15th
  • Japanese Yen net positions added bearish positions after touching the lowest bearish level since October 15, 2013 the previous week
  • Swiss franc bullish positions declined by roughly half last week to +6,806 contracts
  • Australian dollar net positions rose to their best level since April 30th 2013 after turning bullish on April 8th
  • Canadian dollar positions, still bearish at -26,037 contracts, stood at the least bearish position since November 2013

 

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.




Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

eurofx

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/2014261439926356933523300-9938
04/15/201427072210625278564276884388
04/22/20142662591012047543025774-1914
04/29/20142715151022857655125734-40
05/06/201427701311067378122325516817
05/13/20142681428438386558-2175-34726



British Pound Sterling:

gbp

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201422666791642451654647712905
04/15/20142266888747236874505984121
04/22/2014237055896924189247800-2798
04/29/2014236030859134167944234-3566
05/06/2014241264837944314840646-3588
05/13/2014230333711683941331755-8891



Japanese Yen:

jpy

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201418181413340100802-874621176
04/15/20141648431435183067-6871618746
04/22/20141656741656483807-672431473
04/29/20141688201384684198-70352-3109
05/06/20141670932038181109-607289624
05/13/20141647071747182178-64707-3979



Swiss Franc:

chf

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/20144475219275794011335-2896
04/15/201448976239059839140662731
04/22/20144688821732770914023-43
04/29/20144742421960825713703-320
05/06/201455538251021191813184-519
05/13/20144528216951101456806-6378



Canadian Dollar:

cad

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/20141203362870463011-343072687
04/15/20141195252828863714-35426-1119
04/22/20141187072752962984-35455-29
04/29/20141235893009360388-302955160
05/06/20141222872804459644-31600-1305
05/13/20141216322698653023-260375563



Australian Dollar:

aud

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201496887376303432033108190
04/15/201498933404633236680974787
04/22/20141076964954033170163708273
04/29/2014109934500193931310706-5664
05/06/201410493644805361688637-2069
05/13/20141073025014733020171278490



New Zealand Dollar:

nzd

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201432898265216755197661286
04/15/2014331002667168241984781
04/22/20143257926056588120175328
04/29/20142985822979449918480-1695
05/06/201433025250274334206932213
05/13/20143093223806446619340-1353



Mexican Peso:

mxn

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/08/201413033170371138705650134717
04/15/2014131412710381680154237-2264
04/22/2014128932683291481853511-726
04/29/2014128100680731845549618-3893
05/06/2014146455676631977947884-1734
05/13/201414920986137175156862220738



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.




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