Currency Speculators added to Dollar short bets, USD marks new 2014 low level

By CountingPips.com

Cot-Values

The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and speculators added to their bearish bets of the US dollar last week and brought the overall USD position to the lowest level of the year.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling -$2.03 billion as of Tuesday May 6th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.344 billion from the -$0.686 billion total short position that was registered on April 29th, according to Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The USD position has now been on the bearish side for the past four weeks after having crossed over into bearish territory on April 15th. The current level is the most bearish level in the dollar since October 29th 2013 when the bearish position equaled -$3.15 billion.

For the week, speculators increased their bets in favor the euro, Japanese yen and the New Zealand dollar while there were weekly declines for the Canadian dollar, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso.

cot-standings

Notable changes:

  • Euro positions rose to the highest level since April 1st although the data was recorded before the ECB rate decision on Thursday – where the ECB hinted at possible easing policy in June
  • Japanese Yen net positions fell to the lowest bearish level of 2014 (lowest level since October 15, 2013)
  • Australian dollar net positions fell for a 2nd week following a streak of 7 straight weekly increases & remain on bullish side for 5th week
  • British pound sterling positions declined for a 3rd week

 

* All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro. Please see charts and data below.




Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

eurofx

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/20142600751018496861133238-6396
04/08/2014261439926356933523300-9938
04/15/201427072210625278564276884388
04/22/20142662591012047543025774-1914
04/29/20142715151022857655125734-40
05/06/201427701311067378122325516817



British Pound Sterling:

gbp

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/20142114377596942397335723848
04/08/201422666791642451654647712905
04/15/20142266888747236874505984121
04/22/2014237055896924189247800-2798
04/29/2014236030859134167944234-3566
05/06/2014241264837944314840646-3588



Japanese Yen:

jpy

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/201418846422162110800-88638-19751
04/08/201418181413340100802-874621176
04/15/20141648431435183067-6871618746
04/22/20141656741656483807-672431473
04/29/20141688201384684198-70352-3109
05/06/20141670932038181109-607289624



Swiss Franc:

chf

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/201447228248001056914231-588
04/08/20144475219275794011335-2896
04/15/201448976239059839140662731
04/22/20144688821732770914023-43
04/29/20144742421960825713703-320
05/06/201455538251021191813184-519



Canadian Dollar:

cad

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/20141179662754964543-36994-3779
04/08/20141203362870463011-343072687
04/15/20141195252828863714-35426-1119
04/22/20141187072752962984-35455-29
04/29/20141235893009360388-302955160
05/06/20141222872804459644-31600-1305



Australian Dollar:

aud

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/2014939993539840278-488015647
04/08/201496887376303432033108190
04/15/201498933404633236680974787
04/22/20141076964954033170163708273
04/29/2014109934500193931310706-5664
05/06/201410493644805361688637-2069



New Zealand Dollar:

nzd

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/20143231325765728518480267
04/08/201432898265216755197661286
04/15/2014331002667168241984781
04/22/20143257926056588120175328
04/29/20142985822979449918480-1695
05/06/201433025250274334206932213



Mexican Peso:

mxn

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

DateOpen InterestLong SpecsShort SpecsLarge Specs NetWeekly Change
04/01/201414527049893281092178423438
04/08/201413033170371138705650134717
04/15/2014131412710381680154237-2264
04/22/2014128932683291481853511-726
04/29/2014128100680731845549618-3893
05/06/2014146455676631977947884-1734



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.




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