America missed an asteroid. It dodged a depression. It sidestepped
the Mayan’s End-of-the-World curse. But the “sequester” strikes Planet
America today.
Thursday morning, the Dow was headed for an all-time high based on two rationales.
First, housing seems to be in a real recovery. Here in Delray a business partner told us:
It’s unbelievable. Prices are almost
back up to where they were before the crisis. I used to buy houses and
apartment buildings for 5 times rental income. That was a good deal. But
now, I can’t get those deals. Too many buyers in the market.
But Delray is special. It’s a very strong market.
The second rationale for a stock market boom was announced by Ben Bernanke. He’ll keep printing money, he told the Senate, come Hell or High Water, whichever comes first.
The End Is Near
With the Fed behind it, stock market bulls felt sure the Dow would
hit a new record yesterday. But it didn’t. Instead, it backed away from
Wednesday’s gains. Yesterday, the Dow went down 20 points in
anticipation. Gold dropped too… adding to the confusion.
Why?
When Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011, it kicked the
can down the road… to the first of March 2013. That’s when the dreaded
“sequester” was supposed to happen. Automatic U.S. government budget
cuts are meant to be triggered… cutting off “demand” for certain
public and private services.
To hear some in the press and the government describe it, this
sequester will be the end of life as we have known it. The feds will
lack money for the basic services that maintain civilized life. After
tomorrow, the borders will be opened… terrorists will launch an
assault on Washington… old people will drop dead in hospitals…
cancer cures will be abandoned… troops won’t be fed…
… and worst of all… the Zombie Apocalypse will begin… with
millions of zombies marching on Washington in search of money they never
earned.
Well, you know that this is nonsense. But you may not realize how
preposterous it is. Even with the sequester, spending still goes up. The
difference between the sequestered budget and the non-sequestered
budget is trivial.
For Krugman, Bernanke, Stiglitz et al. the worst thing that can
happen to an economy is a fall in “demand.” And they see it coming
today!
The sequester
reduces “demand” from the federal government. But that is a good thing.
When the depression of 1920-21 struck, Presidents Warren Harding and
Calvin Coolidge had no Nobel Prize-winning neo-Keynesian economists to
help them. So they had to use common sense. They simply cut the burden
of government – reducing taxes and cutting (sequestering) government
spending.
Result? The depression was over within two years. Full employment was restored. GDP roared ahead.
But today’s leading economists are convinced that they know better.
They believe “sequester” means less demand. And less demand is bad.
Mushy Thinking
Meanwhile, on the front page of The Wall Street Journal, more mushy thinking. Describing Japan’s economic problem:
… the country’s economy is stagnating because prices are stuck at 1980s levels.
Come again?
Prices are “stuck.” Is that any different from saying prices are
stable? No, it isn’t. In Japan, consumer prices are about the same today
as they were 30 years ago. According to the sages at the WSJ, that too is a bad thing; it causes economic stagnation. Why? Because it cuts demand!
Oh dear, dear reader… only a person who has studied economics could
believe such a silly thing. In America especially, the economics
profession has led itself into mush. It believes that what really
matters is “demand” and that rising prices encourage it. It also
believes that the role of policymakers is essentially demand management.
When prices go up, people don’t want to save… and don’t want to
wait. They know they’ll get their best deal now. So, they spend. Demand
increases.
Rising prices also mislead investors and households on the other side
of the ledger. They see their investments going up. They see their
income rising. They figure they can spend more. Demand increases.
Anyone who thinks about it seriously knows that there is more to a
good economy than just demand. Spending isn’t what makes a healthy
economy. It’s saving. Building capital. And using the capital to earn
profits and pay wages.
Demand is what you get as a result of saving and investment… not
the other way around. There is no real demand, in other words, until you
have wealth. Wealth allows you to spend. Real demand goes up.
But if you try to push up demand without adding real wealth you are
just wasting your time. Or worse, you’re tricking everyone in the
economy and causing them to make mistakes.
Which brings us back to prices that are “stuck.” Stable prices are a
good thing. They make it easy to tell where you are and where you’re
going. If, for example, your income is “stuck” and your wealth is
“stuck”… then you should be stuck too. Spending more money you don’t
have is not the way to unstick yourself.
Sequester? Bring it on!
Regards,
Bill
http://www.billbonnersdiary.
