Speculation about German Confidence Data Weakens the Euro

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The 17-nation currency has declined against the yen from its four months high as data from Germany is expected to reveal that the debt crisis in the region is hampering the region’s growth. The German confidence data is expected to be at its lowest levels hence pushing the euro down against most major peers. However, the demand for the yen was capped by speculation that Bank of Japan will increase the stimulus to curb the yen from strengthening. Further, fears about Spain and Greece have limited the euro’s attractiveness to investors.

Daisaku Ueno, who is a senior foreign exchange strategist in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co, noted that the euro zone economy is likely to worsen due to the austerity measures adopted by the European Central Bank. He predicted that the euro will eventually weaken as investors realize the economic woes in the region as the debt crisis is deeper than is currently being fathomed.  The index of investor expectation from the ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Germany indicated a reading of -20 in September. The gauge was at -25.5 in August the worst level in a year.

The euro’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) for 14-day against the US dollar and the yen is still above 70, indicating that the asset price will reverse course in correction move. The euro has increased sharply against its peers since September 6 when the European Central Bank announce unlimited bond buying program. The advance was boosted by the Fed announcement of QE3 last week. In addition, the Bank of Japan’s meeting today has boosted speculation of intervention causing the yen to weaken.

The 17-nation currency declined against yen by 0.3 percent to trade at 102.93 yen at mid day trading today in Tokyo. The pair closed yesterday at 103.86 yen yesterday, which is the strongest since May 9. It was down by 0.1 percent against the dollar, trading at $1.3099.

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