Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — Andrew Hall disclosed that his hedge fund held oil and gas stocks with a market value of $283 million at year-end, a sign the energy trader delved into equities during the fourth quarter. Bloomberg’s Matt Miller reports in today’s Movers & Shakers. (Source: Bloomberg)
Megaworld Corporation (MEG) Poised For Another 10% Drop
2010 was a marquee year for Andrew Tan’s flagship company Megaworld Corporation or MEG in the Philippine Stock Exchange as it was able to book a 69.86%. However, MEG’s outlook had started to look a bit bleak around December as it started to form a head and shoulders pattern which technical analysts consider as a bearish pattern. In my presentation in Absolute Traders’ year-end chart analysis forum last December, I noted that people should start to avoid MEG at that mean time given its technical set-up. In my colleague’s post in January 12 (kindly see it here), he mentioned again MEG’s likely downturn. And guess what? Exactly a week after that (January 19), MEG’s breakdown occurred.
Since breaching the head and shoulders’ neckline at PHP 2.20, MEG had slipped to a low of PHP 1.98. After doing so, it managed to rally back to to the neckline but was unable o move past above it. For almost a month now, MEG has been stuck within a rectangle pattern (trading between PHP 2.00 and PHP 2.20). Its bias, however, is bearish given its recent breakdown from a head and shoulders pattern. Hence, a fall below the rectangle’s support at PHP 2.00 could send it down to its downside target of PHP 1.80 or to its former high at PHP 1.74.
So to avoid possible losses, I would immediately cut my long positions especially if the support at PHP 2.00 gets broken. Of course, I would want to sell my positions at rallies. But that’s just me. By the way, this is not to say that Megaworld Corporation is not a fundamentally sound company because it is. Perhaps the market is just waiting for a more attractive price before they get on board once again.
More on LaidTrades.com …
Forex Daily Market Commentary
By GCI Forex Research
Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)
USD
Dollar performance was mixed during the Asia session with losses incurred against the euro, while further gains were made versus the yen. EURUSD traded 1.3473-1.3528, USDJPY 83.20-83.56. AUDUSD was temporarily supported by China’s CPI print, which was more benign than consensus forecasts. An uneventful BoJ policy announcement had no currency impact. There were no major data releases in the US overnight, but today should be more eventful. Advance retail sales are due and the winter weather in January could make it a more volatile release. We are looking for +0.1% on the headline release vs. consensus of +0.5%, largely due to bad weather. A disappointing headline print could knock the dollar and Treasury yields lower. But our economists note that even if the data comes in around their lower estimate, their forecast is consistent with total real consumer spending (including services), staying largely unchanged on the month.
EUR
A regular monthly meeting of Eurozone finance ministers broke up as expected without any agreement on how Europe’s existing financial rescue mechanism might be enhanced over the coming weeks. However, Eurogroup president Juncker said agreement had been reached on the size of the ESM – the permanent mechanism that is due to take over in 2013. Juncker said the EU’s contribution to the ESM would ensure an effective EUR500 bn lending capacity, and said the IMF will make contributions on top of that. Juncker also said there could be an extra Eurogroup meeting on March 21, ahead of the end of month EU leaders summit.
The ECB revealed it had purchased no sovereign bonds under the Securities Markets Program by Tuesday of last week.
JPY
The BoJ kept the policy rate unchanged and continues to target a range of 0-0.1%. No changes were made to any of the asset purchase or lending facilities.
GBP
We expect another above-target CPI print of 4.00% y/y, in line with consensus, which could keep BoE rate hiking expectations elevated.
CHF
We raise our 3m EURCHF forecast to 1.35 to reflect that Swiss outperformance may be coming to an end as the global economy reflates and as the SNB continues to ease rates.
AUD
The RBA minutes from the Feb 1 meeting provided little in the way of additional insight into the policy board’s current thinking. The key message was that recent consumer caution and lower than expected CPI have convinced the RBA that it need be in no hurry to hike again. Our Australian economists continue to see the first 2011 policy rate hike in August/September.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURUSD 1.3428 support.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Move below 1.3428 would expose 1.3364. Initial resistance at 1.3621.
USDJPY BULLISH Resistance at 83.68 continues to hold; push above the level would expose 84.51. Support at 82.71.
GBPUSD BULLISH While support at 1.5922 holds, expect recovery towards 1.6138 and 1.6186.
USDCHF BULLISH Break through 0.9776/84 would expose 0.9852. Support is at 0.9575.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.0137 and 0.9961 mark the near-term directional triggers.
USDCAD BEARISH Support at 0.9832/20 zone holds; break through this would expose 0.9712. Near-term resistance at 0.9918.
EURCHF BULLISH Clearance of 1.3086 exposes 1.3015. Resistance at 1.3206.
EURGBP BEARISH Momentum is negative; eyes 0.8389/77 support zone. Near-term resistance is at 0.8462.
EURJPY BULLISH Rise above 113.44 would expose 114.01/94 resistance area. Support lies at 112.06.
Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.
GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.
DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
EUR/GBP Set for Bullish Correction
By Dan Eduard
After falling well over 100 pips since late last week, the EUR/GBP pair seems poised for a bullish reversal in the near future. Long term technical indicators are showing a potentially significant upward correction, giving forex traders a great opportunity to open up long positions before the upward breach occurs.
We will be looking at the 8-hour EUR/GBP chart provided by ForexYard. The technical indicators being examined are the Stochastic Slow, Williams Percent Range and MACD.
1. The Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross, which is typically a sign that upward movement is likely to occur in the near future.
2. The Williams Percent Range is currently right around the -90 level. Typically when the indicator drops below -80, it is a sign that the currency pair is in oversold territory and may be due for upward movement.
3. Finally, the MACD has formed a bullish cross, lending further evidence to our original theory that the pair is likely to move up in the near future.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Swedish Krona Bullish after Riksbank Rate Hike
By Greg Holden
The Swedish economy is once more at the forefront of Scandinavian news, with the krona (SEK) bullish against its primary rivals. After an increase to the short-term repo rate by the Riksbank, forecasts on the SEK appear to favor additional gains throughout 2011, but the cost exporters will bear from this increase has become a concern.
A variety of industries in Sweden have benefited from the competitiveness of Swedish goods. The Swedish telecom industry continues to hold a strong competitive edge, with Ericsson posting steady growth. Truck-maker Volvo AB Asia also posted a 50% increase in sales over the last nine months.
The downside to the latest upsurge in the krona, however, has been that manufacturers and a variety of retail companies are suffering losses from a decline in exporting power. The rising price of raw materials and crude oil has gouged Sweden’s manufacturing industry, as SKF AB – a leading ball-bearing manufacturer – reported lower than expected profits; citing high raw material prices as a factor.
As the Riksbank recently increased its short-term repo rate to 1.50%, the krona has seen continuous gains. The EUR/SEK posted a sharp drop today, following the Riksbank decision, from 8.7809 to as low as 8.7426. The USD/SEK witnessed a similar drop from 6.5000 to as low as 6.4572 before retracing back to its current price of 6.4640.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Heavy News Day Looks to Trigger Extreme Volatility in the Forex Market
Source: ForexYard
A heavy news day is expected today, as leading economic releases from France, Germany, Great Britain and the U.S. are scheduled. The abnormal amount of significant news events is likely to create high volatility throughout the majority of today’s trading session, and traders are advised to be prepped.
Economic News
USD – Dollar Strengthens on Positive Expectations for This Week’s U.S. Economic Releases
The U.S. dollar climbed yesterday against most of its major currency counterparts. The dollar began Monday’s trading session with a 120 pip gain against the euro, and the EUR/USD reached as low as the 1.3430 level. The dollar also saw a 40 pip gain vs. the Japanese yen.
The dollar strengthened today against most of its rivals after analysts released their projection for the economic indicators which are expected later on this week. The forecasts include positive results for some of the more significant economic indicators, such as the Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index, and as a result supported demand for the greenback.
Another support for the dollar came after European finance ministers ruled out immediate steps to fight the region’s debt crisis. This has weakened the euro, and as a result boosted its primary rival – the USD.
Looking ahead to today, many significant publications are expected from the U.S. economy. Most attention should be given to the Retail Sales reports and to the Long-Term Purchases indicator, which represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment. These reports are expected to show positive results. If the end results will meet expectations, the dollar may see another bullish session today.
EUR – Euro Falls after Finance Ministers Rule out Immediate Steps to Fight Debt Crisis
The euro fell against most of the major currencies during Monday’s trading session. The 17-nation currency began yesterday’s session with sharp drops against both the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen The EUR/USD fell 120 pips and the EUR/JPPY dropped 70.
The euro slid yesterday after European finance ministers ruled out immediate steps to fight off the region’s debt crisis. The officials agreed that a permanent rescue mechanism to be set up in 2013 would total 500 billion euros, yet they did not announce immediate steps as expected. The German Finance Minister added that the markets are so stable right now that it’s better not to unsettle them with superfluous discussions.
The market received the announcement with a measure of disappointment after expecting to the officials to agree on immediate steps, and this has added to the bearish pressure on the euro.
As for today, a batch of data is expected from the euro-zone. The most significant releases look to be the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Germany holds the largest and strongest economy in the euro-zone, and thus its financial outlook has a significant impact on the euro. If the end results will provide positive data, the euro might correct yesterday’s losses.
JPY – Yen Sees Mixed Results Vs. The Majors
The Japanese yen saw a rather jumpy session during yesterday’s trading. The yen mainly saw ups and down against most of the major currencies, which concluded in a 40 pip drop against the U.S. dollar and a 40 pip gain against the euro.
The Japanese currency was mostly influenced by its rivals yesterday. The yen fell against the dollar after analysts estimated that U.S. Retails Sales climbed by 0.6 percent on January, and the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 percent.
On the other hand, the yen strengthened against the euro as the euro-zone’s finance ministers ruled out immediate steps to fight off the region’s debt crisis. This has added to the bearish pressure on the euro, which slid against most of the major currencies, including the yen.
Looking ahead to today, no significant releases are expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are advised to follow the Japanese equity markets, and also to follow the economic publications which are expected from the U.S. and the euro-zone, as these are likely to have a large impact on the yen as well.
Crude Oil – Crude Oil Falls To $84.56 a Barrel on Growing U.S. Oil Supplies
Crude oil began Monday’s trading session with a sharp bullish trend and reached as high as $86.49 a barrel. However, a swift reversal then took place, and the commodity fell almost 200 pips, reaching as low as $84.56 a barrel
Crude began yesterday’s trading with a bullish trend after unrest spread from Egypt to other Middle Eastern nations. This has renewed concerns that crude supplies from the region could be disrupted, with the biggest concerns revolving around protests in Iran, the world’s fourth-largest crude oil exporter.
Nevertheless, by midday crude prices saw a sharp drop as oil traders weighed growing U.S. oil supplies against unrest in the Middle East. U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to increase by 1.2M barrels and gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 800,000. It is clear that traders are currently more influenced by the rising supplies in the U.S. than the possible disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East.
As for today, traders should follow all updates regarding the unrest in the Middle East, especially in Iran, as this may keep impacting the oil market. In addition, traders are advised to follow the leading economic releases from the U.S. and the euro-zone, as these are also likely to affect crude prices today.
Technical News
EUR/USD
After falling to the 1.3426 level, the EUR/USD pair began correcting its losses, and is currently trading near the 1.3510 level. In addition, as the RSI on the 4-hour chart has crossed the 30-line and continues to point up, it seems that the bullish correction might proceed today, with the potential to reach the 1.3600 level.
GBP/USD
The cable has been range-trading for the past couple of weeks, shifting between the 1.5960 and the 1.6270 levels. Now, as a bearish cross is taking place on the daily chart’s MACD it seems that a bearish move might be forthcoming. Going short seems to be the right choice today.
USD/JPY
The pair saw a very timid trading session yesterday, remaining near the 83.30 level. Currently a bearish cross on both the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic and the 4-hour chart’s MACD indicates that a bearish move could be imminent, with the potential to push the pair as low as the 82.00 level.
USD/CHF
After peaking at the 0.9770 level the pair started correcting its gains, and is currently trading near the 0.9690 level. In addition, as all the oscillators on the 4-hour chart are pointing down, it seems that the bearish correction might proceed today. Going short with tight stops might be the right strategy today.
The Wild Card
Gold
Over the past week, gold saw several failed attempts to breach through the $1,368 resistance level. Now, as the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are tightening and a bullish cross takes place on the Slow Stochastic, it seems that gold might cross the resistance level today. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to catch the trend at its beginning.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
EURUSD: First level of resistance cleared, enough to go…
TRADERWORX.COM – Extensive weakness in EURUSD on Monday eventually failed to cement the latest push lower, as the single currency nudged back atop of 1.35 into the close late in NY. That said, little worth noticing at current (10.58GMT – EURUSD at 1.3522, Dhigh at 1.3547, DLow at 1.3461), as the pairing was due for a bit of consolidation following a three consecutive session losing streak. We are still backing the buy the dips approach we mentioned extensively in yesterday’s piece of analysis (see below).
Technically, there’s room for further recovery, although the EUR is far from being out of the woods as hurdles are still numerous.
A strong area of congestion looms between 1.3540-72, where previous (intraday) attempts were contained. Inside this area, there are smaller layers of resistance to be found at 1.3558 (Mon’s high) – 1.3560 (Fri hourly level). A clearance of this 1.3540-72 area would however bode well for additional recovery. Our model would be a buyer of such a breakout (one hourly close above the level is a necessity for entrance), for a return towards 1.3650-60 at least (Feb 2 – Feb 10 downtrend resistance level). Interim resistance still at 1.3583 (Fri Feb 11 high), 1.3600 and 1.3640-50. Above the latter sets targets at 1.3744 (Feb 09 high).
Conversely, a failure to regain composure above 1.3572 could see the recent recovery fading and slipping back towards 1.3461 (Intraday low). Below here opens for a test of Monday’s lows at 1.3429 and eventually for the short-term key support zone near 1.3370-65 (previous trendline + Fibo level). As expressed in our Monday’s piece of analysis, we keep our ‘buy dips’ approach standing as prices hold above this latter area.
Summarizing; before suggesting the ongoing recovery off Monday’s lows has potential to reverse the recent day’s weakness, we would like to see strength as expressed by a cemented break above 1.3572. Repeated failures to do so will likely see renewed slippage back towards the day’s lows (1.3461), followed by Mon’s 1.3429. Fresh stops are expected to be triggered below here, and moves sub 1.34 are until further notice believed to offer bargain hunters a nice opportunity.
Remark: The analysis provided is based on technical research and proprietary models made by Traderworx Limited. It is intended for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a trading guidance, unless fully at own risk. Trading FX or leveraged/margined assets contains a high degree of risk and substantial risk of loss.
Forex Economic Calendar Events February 15, 2011
By CountingPips.com
Tuesday February 15th
- Japan interest rate decision
- United Kingdom consumer price index
- United Kingdom retail price index
- Eurozone gross domestic product
- Eurozone trade balance
- United States Empire Manufacturing
- United States advanced retail sales
- United States net TIC flows
- United States ABC consumer confidence
- Japan Tertiary Industry index
USDCHF remains in uptrend from 0.9328
USDCHF remains in uptrend from 0.9328, the fall from 0.9774 is likely consolidation of uptrend. Initial support is at the lower border of the rising price channel on 4-hour chart, and key support is at 0.9650, as long a this level holds, uptrend could be expected to resume and another rise towards 1.0000 is still possible after consolidation, only break below 0.9650 could indicate that lengthier consolidation of uptrend is underway and delay the resumption of uptrend.
Written by ForexCycle.com
The seniorstrategist: Emerging markets underperform
Seniorstrategist Ib Fredslund Madsen looks ahead. Eventhough markets in Europe and USA are rising emerging markets currently underperform.
Video courtesy of en.jyskebank.tv
