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(Corrects incorrect company affiliation in television graphic.) Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) — Dan Scott, a research analyst at Credit Suisse AG, talks about the prospect of a European fiscal union and a resolution to the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Scott, speaking from Zurich, also discusses his investment strategy with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

By Mike Conlon, ForexNews.com on Oct 18, 2011

With the overhang of the realization that indeed Euro zone leaders will not have a resolution in place by next week like the G-20 leaders asked for, it is now questionable what exactly Merkozy were referring to when they claimed to be able to have something ready by early November. Is their timetable still in play? From where I sit, it doesn’t seem likely.

So the markets have turned their attention to global economic data and at this point it isn’t pretty. Overnight, China reported GDP figures that came in less than expected but nevertheless were impressive, showing growth of 9.1% vs. an expected 9.3%. This was worrisome for the markets as this was the slowest pace China has grown in nearly two years, but some encouraging signs are that domestic demand is picking up as retail sales figures were higher than expected, as were industrial production figures.

This put pressure on both the Aussie and Kiwi as the RBA also said that they could envision a rate reduction as inflation there is “less concerning”. However, the RBNZ governor said that rates may need to move higher in New Zealand as the economic activity generated from the rebuilding from the earthquakes may no longer require stimulus.

This sent markets into risk aversion mode right away and that sentiment was carried into the European session as German economic confidence figures came in at 3 year lows. In addition, France’s credit rating is in jeopardy if the Euro debt resolution puts too much strain on the French economy though the pace that these negotiations are taking place may not make this a worry any time soon.

What we are seeing though is the signs of inflation creeping up around the globe, most visibly in the UK who reported CPI of 5.2% inflation vs. the expectation of 4.9%. I thought that expectation figure yesterday had to be wrong, but boy was I mistaken. To be clear, the BOE has an inflation target of 2%, which means it is running more than twice their mandate. I’m sure the UK citizens love this as the economy slows down. Stagflation anyone?

As bad as the UK seems, there may be a bigger stagflationary problem and that is occurring right here in the US. This morning PPI data came in hotter than expected, posting a headline figure of 6.9% vs. the expected 6.5%, with the core figure showing 2.5% vs. an expected 2.4%. This may mean that tomorrow’s CPI data could be hotter than expected and that we are experiencing inflation, despite declines in housing prices. Were it not for the drag of the housing market, inflation might be much, much higher.

Yet the markets know that Bernanke is going to do nothing about higher costs because that is EXACTLY what he is hoping will occur. Meanwhile, misguided protesters will continue to direct their anger toward Wall St. and not Washington DC even though US bank earnings are coming in way lower than expected.

But I suppose it is easier to point the finger at those who actually show up for work, as Washington DC is in full-on election mode right now which means that virtually nothing will get accomplished which at this stage of the game may be a blessing in disguise. The debt “super-committee” will likely do the bare minimum and kick the can further down the road and the blame-game politics we’ve come to endure will only grow as more and more people donate to the campaigns of these fools who have caused the economic malaise we are experiencing.

Maybe the Occupy Wall St. movement will help reduce the unemployment rate as fewer people show up to pick up their checks, though the auto-apply feature comes in pretty handy especially when you are not looking for work as you are supposed to be.

Bernanke will be speaking later today and will likely shift the focus back on the Euro zone, which is an entirely different mode of blame politics. We’ll be told that if the Europe can just get their act together then things will be alright.

Do you believe this? Me neither.

Regards,

Mike Conlon,
Senior Forex Mentor
www.forexnews.com

This morning, UBS lowered its price target on shares of Halliburton (HAL) to $56 as margins in North America could narrow. In the report, UBS maintained its buy rating, but lowered its earnings estimates.

By James Woolley

Lots of people who trade forex will try out many different trading systems in order to find one that is consistently profitable. They will play around with many different indicators and become increasingly frustrated if they still have no joy. However there are three basic things that you can do that may well help you generate more profits from your trading.

The first thing you can do is to forget about the idea of becoming a day trader. So many people are drawn to this fast and furious style of trading, but as many experienced trader will tell you, this is one of the hardest ways to make money.

When you have spreads of up to 5 points and somewhat random price movements at times, it is not easy to call which way the markets are going to go. You also have economic data releases to deal with, which can move the markets in an instant and render all your technical analysis to be a waste of time.

You are better off lengthening your time frames and trading the 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts instead of the 1 and 5 minute charts, for example. These time frames are a lot easier to trade because technical indicators are more reliable due to less noise, and you can still make a lot of money because the price moves can be very big.

Another thing you can do is to start managing your trades better. In other words you want to be cutting your losing trades early and letting your winning trades run for as long as possible. So for example if your stop loss is 40 points, then you would want to be targeting 100+ points in an ideal world.

The benefit of doing this is that you can still make decent profits without necessarily having a really high success rate. Some of the best traders around never let their losing trades accumulate. They simply take losses early, safe in the knowledge that they will still make money in the long run because their winning trades are a lot bigger.

The third and final thing you can do is to interact with other currency traders every day. You will probably already know that it is possible to spend hours and hours each day staring at your screen, waiting for the next set-up and not really doing much.

So you might as well make use of all this free time to chat with other traders on chat rooms and forums. That way you can pick up some useful trading tips and strategies and hopefully help develop your own winning systems, particularly if you take some time to identify some of the best traders on these forums, and therefore the ones worth listening to.

The point is that trying to carve out a successful career for yourself as a forex trader is not easy. You need to work at it constantly, and even if you do develop a winning system, you can still end up losing money if market conditions change. However if you follow some of the tips mentioned in this article, you will certainly increase your chances of success.

About the Author

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Bank of America (BAC) was the latest of the major financial firms to report third quarter earnings today, swinging to a profit in the quarter. The company said profits totaled $6.2 billion, or $0.56 per share, compared to a loss of $7.3 billion, or $0.77 per share, in last year’s third quarter.

A key measure of price inflation for wholesale goods rose in September for the biggest increase in the data since the spring. The US producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8%, according to a Labor Department report today.

IBM (IBM) shares are trading lower Tuesday following its third quarter earnings report late yesterday. The company said profits totaled $3.84 billion, or $3.19 per share, compared to $3.59 billion, or $1.82 per share, in last year’s third quarter.

Energy M&A: The Natural Gas Bulls Are Back in Town

by Justin Dove, Investment U Research
Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Kinder Morgan’s (NYSE: KMP) $33-billion takeover of El Paso Corp. (NYSE: EP) is just one of a flurry of recent mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector.

Statoil (NYSE: STO) also took over Brigham Exploration (Nasdaq: BEXP) on Monday, and Sinopec (NYSE: SHI) acquired Daylight Energy (OTC: DAYYF.PK) last week.

Dealogic recently released data showing that energy and utility deals account for nearly a third of the dollar value for all worldwide merger and acquisition transactions thus far in the fourth quarter.

This likely means one thing: Companies with a bunch of capital think smaller natural gas companies are attractively cheap right now.

Energy Stock Volatility Continues

The market is extremely volatile due to fears of world economic crisis. Those fears are especially hard on the energy sector, as a global recession would crush oil and natural gas demand.

The Vanguard Energy ETF (AMEX: VDE) still hasn’t recovered from its sharp drop in August, and is still suffering losses greater than those of the S&P 500. But natural gas stocks have been doing even worse than the broad energy sector. The United States Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG) fell just as far as the Vanguard Energy ETF, but hasn’t rebounded quite as quickly.

Energy Industry Insider Buying Increases

As Peter Lynch famously wrote, “Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: They think the stock price is undervalued and will eventually go up.”

And according to Canada’s Insider News and Knowledge (INK) energy indicator, which measures insider sentiment in the sector, insider sentiment in the energy industry is at its highest levels since following the 2008 recession.

Below are a few natural gas stocks that recently had increases in insider buying:

• Encana Corp. (NYSE: ECA) – Encana had a rough month despite many reasons for investors to be excited about the stock. The stock is currently around $20 per share after being in the $30s for most of the 2011. It has pipeline projects in western Canada and the southern United States. It also has a hand in a joint venture that recently got approved by Canada’s National Energy Board to export from a deepwater port in British Columbia. This could be huge, as it would open up the company to the natural gas-hungry Asian markets. There were even takeover rumors swirling about Encana recently. And according to Ted Dixon at INK, five insiders bought a combined 60,000 shares at an average price of $24.13 in the past three months.

• Apache Corp. (NYSE: APA) – Apache is another company, along with EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG), involved with Encana in the British Columbian port venture. Its shares were recently hammered to nearly half of the 52-week high of $134.14 and are currently trading around $90 a share. A Director and the Executive Vice President both recently engaged in large insider purchases of the stock.

• Sandridge Energy (NYSE: SD) – Sandridge is another company trading at almost half of its 52-week high. It isn’t profitable yet, but part of that’s because of large capital expenditures over the past few years, which exceeded its cash flow. But insiders seem to be very optimistic that these expenditures will pay off soon. In October alone, 10 insiders made stock purchases. The company is relatively small and risky with a market cap under $3 billion and a beta more than double the overall market, but one has to wonder what these insiders are so excited about.

A Recent Flurry of Natural Gas M&A

No one has a crystal ball to see where the market will be in the future. However, large companies such as Kinder Morgan, Statoil and Sinopec hire the best and brightest to make strategic decisions such as timing mergers and acquisitions.

The recent flurry of natural gas acquisitions could be a good sign for the sector going forward. Add in the increase in insider buying and signs seem to be pointing toward a sector in need of a serious rebound.

With a recent surge in bull mentality by large companies and insiders alike, maybe it’s time for investors to put on their natural gas bull masks, too.

Good investing,

Justin Dove

Article by Investment U

By The Sizemore Letter

Well, so much for a quick fix.  German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out a “definitive solution” to the ongoing Eurozone sovereign debt crisis at the coming weekend summit, prompting a sharp selloff in global stock markets.  And adding an additional wet blanket to the fire of hope, the head of France’s central bank said that the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program would not be expanded.  The ECB’s bond buying program had previously been one of the few coherent policy decisions coming out of Europe and a critical part of the effort to avoid crisis contagion spreading to Spain and Italy.  So much for that.

Nero: The man was 1,947 years ahead of his time.

Like Nero two millennia ago, it appears that Europe’s modern-day Caesars are content to fiddle while Rome—and every other European capital—burns.    And until these little Neros stop acting like pandering politicians and start acting like real leaders, the capital markets promise to be volatile.

Still, despite the muddle coming out of European capitals, something resembling a consensus is starting to take form.  Greece is insolvent and will default (see “Three Greek Stocks to Consider After the Default”).  The focus has shifted from propping up Greece to managing the fallout on Europe’s banks after the inevitable default happens.  If done correctly and in such a way that inspires market confidence, the damage will be contained.  If done poorly and without adequate resources…well, say hello again to a post-Lehman 2008 meltdown.

All of their recent actions (and inactions) notwithstanding, I do not believe that Europe’s leaders are stupid enough to allow a disorderly meltdown.  But until there is a definitive solution—what British Prime Minister David Cameron has called a “big bazooka”—expect the markets to be volatile, both to the upside and downside.

Hang in there, dear investor.  Volatility is not something investors should automatically run from.  If you play your cards right, you can do quite well during times of volatility.  Investing legend Warrant Buffett made some of his most profitable investments in decades during the 2008 meltdown, and plenty of other value investors did quite well.  During a bear market or panic, good stocks go on sale.  And when they do, you have to trust your analysis, ignore your emotions and the panicked noise around you, and buy with both fists.

European stocks are trading near their lowest valuations in decades, and there are fantastic long-term buys to be found today.  Spanish stocks trade at just 7.5 times earnings, and German stocks for less than 10.  By comparison, at 13 times earnings, U.S. stocks would seem downright expensive.

Investors should use any sharp selloffs as an opportunity to buy the dips.  For those wanting an easy “one stop shop” option for investing in Europe, the following ETFs deserve a good look:

iShares S&P Europe Index Fund (NYSE: $IEV)— This ETF is not a pure play on the Eurozone, per se.  It has a 35.1 percent allocation to the United Kingdom and another 13.3 percent allocation to Switzerland, which use the pound sterling and the franc, respectively.    Considering the high correlations these days between the markets of Eurozone and non-Eurozone states, I don’t consider this a problem.

The ETF has a rather high 18 percent allocation to financials, but is otherwise well diversified across sectors.  Its largest holdings are Nestlé (Pink sheets: $NSRGY), Novartis (NYSE: $NVS), HSBC (NYSE: $HBC)and Vodafone (Nasdaq: $VOD).

The ETS trades at a trailing P/E ratio of just 9 and a dividend yield of 3.55 percent .

PowerShares International Dividend Achievers (NYSE: $PID)—This ETF is my preferred way to play a rebound in Europe.  It’s not a pure play on the Eurozone—or even on the European continent, as it has exposure to Canada, East Asia, and even Israel—but it is an ETF loaded with survivors.  To be included in this ETF, a company has to have raised its dividend for a minimum of five consecutive years.  That means that any company on this list survived the 2008 meltdown and actually managed to raise its dividend under those conditions.

Like any traded security, there is always the risk that the value of your investment can fall in the short term.  But given the quality and durability of this ETF’s holdings—and given that it trades for just 12 times earnings and pays a dividend yield of nearly 4 percent—your risk of long-term loss would seem almost nil.  PID has a large allocation to the telecom sector, which happens to be my favorite industrial sector at current prices, and counts among its holdings Sizemore Investment Letter favorites Telefónica (NYSE: $TEF), Unilever (NYSE: $UL), and Diageo (NYSE: $DEO).

ProShares Ultra MSCI Europe (NYSE: $UPV)—This ETF is not for the faint of heart.  It is a leveraged fund designed to offer 200% of the daily return of the MSCI Europe index.  On days when it appears the world is not ending, this fund flies.  But on days when risk aversion creeps back into the picture, the bottom falls out.  On the day of Mr. Schaeuble’s comments, the ETF dropped 6 percent.

Still, investors wanting to place an aggressive bet on a recovery in Europe might find that this ETF is exactly what they’re looking for.  Just make sure you stock up on antacids ahead of time.

If you liked this article by Sizemore Insights, you’d probably enjoy The Sizemore Investment Letter, our premium members-only newsletter. Click here for more information.

By forexeasystems.com

Forex trading has a huge profit potential. Trader can manage his activity on a currency trading market by himself. He can make a couple trades per month or ten per day, whatever is comfortable for him. More and more people are interesting in foreign exchange rate market, but only 5% of all traders are successful traders. Why? Because the biggest enemy for a trader is himself. His emotions work against him.  He suffers from fear and greed.

In this case automated Forex trading system can help a trader to become successful. Automated Forex trading system is the sophisticated software based on the complicated mathematical algorithms, optimized for analyzing the dynamics of the rate exchange trend. It does not know words “almost”, “just a little bit more”, “It seems like” and so on. Programs don’t know greed and fear.

Plan the trade and trade the plan – that is automated trading about!

No doubt, automated Forex trading systems can generate large profits for the user. But as there are many systems offered from which mostly are not worth a cent it is difficult to choose the best one. As traders realized all features of automated Forex trading robots this market grows very fast and full of developers who are looking for easy money and trying to sell systems that don’t work. Follow the steps to ensure you will be no victim of fraud.

1. Price is an important indicator of quality. Have you ever heard about high quality and low price things!  If you are not rich enough to buy cheap stuff stay away from 99 USD systems or do you really think you can buy quality system which returns constant profits for such little money.

2. Test results are very important. Honest developer will provide you with test results from at least 7 years. If the developer cannot provide you with detailed test results, stay away and do not even think about this system.

3. While test results are important, forward results from real accounts are even more important. If the developer cannot provide you with verified forward results from at least 6 month, stay away. Because it has not been tested long enough to make any conclusions or not tested at all.

4. Refund period must be! No exceptions!

5. Eventually, Support is a good indicator of product quality. The platform settings are different from Broker to broker so it is a big possibility that you will have questions to support.  Before you buy a system write an Email to the developer and check how long it needs to get a response. If you don’t receive an answer at all, I would recommend you to look for another profitable Forex trading system.

When you follow the described steps you can be sure you will be no victim of fraud and will be able to choose the automated trading system which fit your personal needs wisely and will save you a lot of time and make a lot of money.  Each step is part of a good product; you cannot neglect any of them. This small guide will protect from a waste of your resources and can be extremely useful tool.

Stays the question, where to find good Forex trading software. One from the best developers is ForexEASystems where you can download free Metatrader custom indicator called Fx Pulse that can show actual Forex news directly on your chart in real time.

Click here AUTOMATED FOREX TRADING SYSTEMS to learn more about.

Source of article: http://www.articlesbase.com/currency-trading-articles/automated-forex-trading-system-several-tips-to-choose-the-best-one-2314235.html