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ECB Move Continues to Weigh on Euro
Source: ForexYard
The euro took further losses against its main currency rivals in trading yesterday, as pessimism in the euro-zone economic recovery caused investors to revert their funds back to the US dollar. The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.3281, while against the GBP, the common currency dropped close to 50 pips. Turning to today, traders will want to continue monitoring any announcements out of the euro-zone for clues regarding risk appetite in the marketplace. Negative news could continue to weigh down on the euro.
Economic News
USD – USD Extends Bullish Trend amid Positive US News
The US dollar largely maintained its bullish trend throughout yesterday’s trading session, as signs of an improving US economy sent investors to the greenback. A positive US Unemployment Claims figure, along with recent comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke have helped the dollar against its main rivals, including the euro and Japanese yen. The EUR/USD dropped below the 1.3300 level during the afternoon session before staging a minor recovery. Against the yen, the buck reached as high as 81.25 following the release of the unemployment figure.
Turning to today, a lack of significant US news means that any announcements out of the euro-zone are likely to determine risk appetite in the marketplace. With confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery relatively low at the moment, any additional negative news out of the EU Economic Summit today is likely to boost the greenback further. Furthermore, traders can look forward to a hectic trading week next week, as a batch of significant US data is set to be released.
EUR – EUR Remains Bearish Going into Today’s Session
After tumbling against virtually all of its main counterparts on Wednesday, the euro remained bearish throughout the day yesterday. Fears regarding the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis, despite the European Central Bank’s latest round of refinancing, led to investors reverting back to the common currency’s main rivals. The EUR/USD dropped below the 1.3300 level during the European session. Against the Australian dollar, the euro dropped close to 80 pips, dropping as low as 1.2340
As we close out the week, euro traders will want to monitor the second day of the EU Economic Summit for any announcements regarding the current state of euro-zone economies. Any negative news may result in the common-currency extending its recent bearish trend. Traders will also want to note that next week, a number of potentially significant economic indicators are set to be released. Chief among these is the US Non-Farm Employment Change, which is largely considered the most important event on the forex calendar. The figure consistently results in heavy market volatility, and the euro could see large movements as a result.
JPY – JPY Levels Out After Losses
The USD/JPY stabilized around 81.16 Thursday afternoon after the dollar made a huge jump on the Japanese currency the previous day, following positive comments from US Fed Chairman Bernanke. The greenback is also bouncing off of the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing move that, since being implemented weeks ago, has set off a downward trend for the yen. While the USD/JPY does seem to be stable for now, analysts have not yet expressed confidence that the yen has fully bottomed out following the measures taken by the BOJ.
Traders should note that heavy fluctuations are predicated next week as a batch of significant U.S. news is forecasted to be released. Positive US news may cause the yen to extend its recent bearish trend. That being said, should any of the news come in below expectations, investors may revert back to safe-haven assets and boost the yen.
Crude Oil – Crude Oil Stabilizing
Crude oil values leveled out on Thursday as overall demand for the commodity is still relatively high. Earlier in the week, oil turned bearish as concerns that high prices have negatively impacted the global economic recovery. That being said, ongoing concerns regarding tensions with Iran led to a rebound during yesterday’s session. Crude traded as high as $107.64 a barrel during the European session, after hitting as low as $106.51 during morning trading.
As we close out the week, traders will want to continue monitoring the situation in Iran, as well as the current state of the euro-zone economic recovery. Any increase in risk aversion due to the euro-zone debt crisis may cause oil to drop today.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the same chart, which has moved into overbought territory. Going short may be the wise choice.
GBP/USD
The Williams Percent Rang on the daily chart is currently at -10 and angling downward, indicating that bearish movement could occur in the near future. The Slow Stochastic on the same chart appears to be forming a bearish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator. If a cross forms, downward movement may occur.
USD/JPY
Most long term technical indicators are showing this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no significant movements are forecasted at this time. Traders will want to keep an eye on the weekly chart’s Relative Strength Index, as it is currently close to the overbought zone. If it crosses into overbought territory, it may be a sign of impending downward movement.
USD/CHF
The weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bullish cross, indicating that upward movement could occur in the coming days. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has crossed into oversold territory. Going long may be a wise choice for this pair.
The Wild Card
CAD/JPY
A bearish cross on the 8-hour chart can be taken as a sign that downward movement could occur in the near future. In addition, The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has crossed into the overbought zone. Forex traders may want to go short in their positions today ahead of a possible downward breach.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
4 Hr Cable outlook | 02 March
GBP/USD 4hr Outlook – 02 March
The last 4hr candle on the Cable was a completion of a bullish Hikkake pattern. Its clear to see the Sterling has been trending up against the dollar and the formation of the Hikkake gives traders an opportunity to join the current bullish momentum.
The chart below shows the Hikkake pattern. The pattern is strengthened due to the 3 inside bars. Hikkake’s with multiple inside bars tend to give the strongest signals.
The bullish pin bar which completed the pattern shows a clear and concise rejection of the important psychological and technical support/resistance level at 1.5900. The chart below shows how the tail of the pin bounced almost perfectly of this level coming just a few pips shy.
We can also take account of the trend line bounce the pin bar made. The pair has been respecting the trend line since late last week. Once again this further strengthens our bullish 4hr outlook.
We’ll be looking to enter a long trade reacting to the bullish price action shown. A possible entry traders could take is when the market once again test’s the trend line. Alternatively traders could wait for a 50% retracement of the pin placing their stops just below the tail or below the trend line. Initial targets could be taken at Wednesdays highs giving a strong R:R trade.
Crude Oil Demand is Down
Source: ForexYard
Crude oil values dipped Friday as overall demand for the commodity is still is dropping off. The last two days saw a drop in crude oil values as investors were concerned with the ongoing crisis with Iran as well as decreasing demand for oil from the U.S. The most recent numbers show Brent crude oil is trading at 107.82 after falling as low as 104.80 on Wednesday night.
Heading into next week, traders should be aware of the U.S. releasing the Non-Farm Employment Change figure. This does raise the possibility of increasing the overall volatility of the market.
Read more forex news on our forex blog.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
JPY Dipping Lower
Source: ForexYard
The USD/JPY stabilized around 81.57 Friday morning following significant gains made by the dollar on Wednesday and Thursday against the Japanese currency. Just as the greenback made huge gains against the euro following comments from Fed Reserve Chair Bernanke indicated that a new stimulus package would not be necessary. The greenback is also bouncing off of the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing move that since being implemented weeks ago has set off a downward trend with the yen. While the USD/JPY does seem to be stable for now, analysts have not yet expressed confidence that the yen has fully bottomed out following the measures taken by the BoJ.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Kenneth Cole Productions Tops Estimates For Q4, Rose 8.6% Year-Over-Year
Kenneth Cole Productions (NYSE:KCP) reported Q4 EPS of $0.43, better than analyst estimates of $0.28 per share. Revenues for the quarter rose 8.6% year-over-year to $131.20 million, better than consensus estimates of $126.46 million.Last month, the fashion designer himself announced he wanted to take the company private.Kenneth Cole Productions (NYSE:KCP) has potential upside of 8.3% based on a current price of $15.69 and an average consensus analyst price target of $17.
Vanguard Natural Beats Estimates And Offers Production Guidance
Vanguard Natural (NYSE:VNR) reported Q4 EPS of $0.76, vs. estimates of $0.53.The company reported Q4 distribution per unit of 58.75 c, up 4.9% year-over-year.The company said fourth quarter average production was 13,686 BOE per day, vs. 13,371 quarter-over-quarter.The company sees annual production of 12,900 – 13,733 BOE per day.
Windows 8 Looks To Leverage PC Coverage For Mobile OS
Windows 8 (NASDAQ:MSFT), while late to join the game, could leverage its almost monopoly among PCs to compete for mobile operating system (OS) market share.According to IDC, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) Ice Cream Sandwich (47%) and Apple iOS (NASDAQ:AAPL) are sitting at the top of the mobile OSs food chain.Windows got a leg up when it partnered with Nokia (NYSE:NOK) to replace the Symbian OS with Windows for future smartphones.Microsoft intends to widen its ecosystem of OEMs and developers by way of a united OS for PCs and mobile devices.
CVR Energy Board Rejects Carl Icahn’s Bid
CVR Energy’s (NYSE:CVI) Board of Directors urges its holders to reject the Carl Icahn’s $30 per share bid, saying it substantially undervalues the company.The board is confident that the company will deliver greater value to its shareholders by pursuing its current, successful plan.CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) has potential upside of 4.7% based on a current price of $27.21 and an average consensus analyst price target of $28.5.
Initial Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected to Lowest Level Since March 2008
The Labor Department reported today jobless claims dropped to the four-year low, adding to economists’ views that the economy is turning around.Applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 2,000 in the week ended Februaray 25th to 351,000. Economists had been expecting 355,000 claims in the week.The number of people contenting to college jobless benefits dropped by 2,000 in the week to 3.4 million. The unemployment rate is still at 8.3% from its January measurement and could see a drop from this news when February numbers are revealed.
