How Britain’s Cultural Revolution Transformed the World

By MoneyMorning.com.au

For the ordinary person, life didn’t change a jot from pre-history to around 1800.

It didn’t matter whether you were born in bucolic 17th century England or a Stone Age cave. Your lot in life would be hardscrabble toil, a cramped dirt-floor home and a swift death at the age of around 30. It would be the same life as your grandparents and your grandchildren.

Why didn’t 10,000 years of civilisation improve people’s living conditions? Because wealth comes from work per person, and work per person comes from innovation. And the process of innovation back then was agonisingly slow. Hundreds and thousands of years separated breakthroughs like stone tools, agriculture, iron ploughs and sailing ships.


Slow progress would never be enough to improve man’s lot because something else instantly pulled down average living standards – children. Bigger families and bigger populations kept humanity at starvation level for thousands of years. So even though we gradually built great civilisations and towering cathedrals, the ordinary person fought a constant battle for his family’s survival.

So the rate of technological advance was the crucial factor. When technology improved slowly, general living standards couldn’t rise. Before 1800 the economy was like any other ecological habitat. Any improvement in conditions could only be temporary, because more mouths pulled living standards back to subsistence level in the long run. The stock of new ideas grew, but it grew too slowly. It couldn’t outrun the birth rate. Better farms led to bigger farm families, and not idle farmers.

Mankind was caught in a trap. To escape infant mortality and dirt floors, we needed new ideas. We needed to speed up the adoption of new technologies, new rules and new values.

The change finally came in Britain, at around 1800. It was the crucial turning point in human history. That’s where the ‘birth rate’ of new ideas passed population growth. Ideas are like families: they propagate and they proliferate. They spark off each other to form newer ideas, and those ideas do the same, and on and on exponentially.

From 1800 on, new ideas created wealth faster than population growth could take it away. Ideas had the momentum on their side, and since then new technologies and rules and values have created wealth at an accelerating pace. Before 1800, wealth per person stayed more or less static. Now we’re ten to 20 times better off than before, and our wealth doubles every generation or two. Humanity has sprung the trap.

Why Britain?


But why Britain? And why then?

There are plenty of theories. But one writer – Deirdre McCloskey – thinks it all comes down to cultural values.

McCloskey is a scholar of economic history, and she believes that the revolution in living standards ultimately stemmed from a change in attitude towards commerce and the pursuit of wealth.

Economists think in terms of what’s calculable: trade volumes; average height; tonnes of grain. McCloskey is trying to move the economic conversation towards, well, human conversation. She argues that words and values are badly under appreciated by economic historians. Culture and attitudes are a powerful force, she says, and they shape how individuals choose to live their lives.

Why does McCloskey believe that causation ran from rhetoric to wealth, rather than the other way around? She reaches her answer by carefully dismissing the other explanations offered, leaving her culture story as the last man standing.

It wasn’t down to property rights – these had been around for hundreds of years. It wasn’t about the empire either – imperialism wasn’t a new development, it didn’t enrich the ‘mother country’, and also the timing was wrong. Foreign trade was too small and it was prevalent everywhere.

As for religion, Catholics prospered alongside Protestants in bourgeois societies. And science? British science was, if anything, behind China and Arabia’s. “In short,” says McCloskey, “the Europeans were not economically special until about 1700.”

The Power of Words

So that just leaves a change in attitudes. The pre-industrial world’s hostility towards and scorn for commerce cannot be underestimated. Status came from the royal court, the battlefield or the church. Dealing and trading was seen as vulgar. To buy and sell for profit was to take advantage of others – in the same way that usury was strictly banned by canon law.

In France or Spain at the time, a nobleman caught engaging in commerce could be stripped of his rank. In Confucian China, merchants were the fourth and lowest of the social classes.

Trading was seen as a threat to the old order. Thomas More typified 1516′s view of merchants: “They think up… all ways and means… of keeping what they have heaped up through underhanded deals, and then taking advantage of the poor by buying their labour and toil as cheaply as possible… these depraved creatures.”

It wasn’t until the 18th and 19th centuries, that Dutch and then British culture began to treat merchants and townspeople with respect for the very first time. There came to be a new dignity in making, building, inventing, and profiting where there was none before.

At around that time the first texts in ‘political economy’ were published, mainly in England and Scotland. Adam Smith’s ‘The Wealth of Nations’ in 1776 could be seen as a manifesto for the new bourgeois order. It explained clearly for the first time how grubby traders improve the nation while they enrich themselves. Economics was the new philosophy of a confident merchant society.

Even the language changed. In Shakespeare’s plays, the only bourgeois characters are fools or worse, like Antonio or Shylock. They don’t even feature in Jane Austen’s rarefied worlds. When Shakespeare wrote the word ‘honest’ he meant noble, in an aristocratic sense. By the 18th century in Britain it came to mean truth-telling – the merchant’s virtue of reliability.

British society was learning the first lesson of economics: trade can be a ‘positive sum game’. As McCloskey puts it, “By the new, pro-bourgeois talk, the positive-sum game was freed partly from zero-sum politics.”

The novel idea that decent people could make profits took root. Aristocratic cultural dominance was coming to an end. That freed both landed gentry and lowly artisans. With the stigma removed, people ‘broke rank’ and came together to pursue opportunities and ideas, which led to further inventions and further opportunities.

Cultural barriers had kept innovation hemmed in. When these dissolved, ideas were finally free to proliferate. So the new culture made all the difference between ideas forming slowly and in isolation; or quickly, and together.

In return, the merchants made Britain stunningly rich. The newly respectable middle class bought and sold and invented a new type of economy. They built machines and cities and they made Britain the centre of the world.

Their values spread and eventually destroyed the feudal order from Tokyo to New England. French bourgeois, German burghers and American freeholders took control of their nations. And the gentry didn’t stand a chance against the inventive, trading, scheming, prospering townsfolk.

Napoleon sneered that Britain was “a nation of shopkeepers”, and he was right. But British shopkeepers could innovate and trade their way to a better life. It might be that British culture harnessed the potential of ordinary people, and invented a new world in the process.

Séan Keyes
Contributing Editor, MoneyWeek (UK)

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek (UK)

From the Archives…

Gold Shares vs. Gold Futures – Lessons From a Scandal
2012-02-24 – Dan Denning

2012 – The Year Gold Exploration Stocks Explode
2012-02-23 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Why the Australian Economy is Much Weaker than the RBA Thinks
2012-02-22 – Greg Canavan

Aussie Implications From a Greek Default
2012-02-21 – Dan Denning

Opportunities for Government Policy Profiteers
2012-02-20 – Nick Hubble


How Britain’s Cultural Revolution Transformed the World

Chinese Banks: Will Missing Yuan Trigger a Capital Flight of China’s Black Swan?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Reuters reported last year that Bert Hoffman, World Bank chief economist for East Asia and Pacific is confident business and bank and economic managers in China have it all under control.

He’s so convinced China’s central planners can bring about a soft landing he said…

‘On balance, we believe that while there are issues (in China), they are being managed and the magnitude of those issues does not add up to something that would lead necessarily to a major slowdown as some have talked about.’

It may look like the People’s Bank of China is able to control the economy. But its China’s wealthy that control the central bank.

Here’s how.


China has a country of 1.3 billion people. Out of those, 590,000 make up the richest people in China. A tiny 0.5% of the population. Together these ultra-wealthy own $2.7 trillion of assets, or roughly $4.57 billion per person.

In fact, China officials care most about these super rich. Looked at another way, combined they possess the buying power to potentially pay off one-sixth of the US national debt.

And this group of rich Chinese could be driving the latest bank policy.

In February, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 20.5%. At face value it looks like the PBOC is doing it simply to keep the Chinese credit binge going.

Or, it could be because actual cash is leaving the banking system in record numbers. This is known as ‘capital flight‘, when vast amounts of cash leave the banks. This is important because capital flight sucks the liquidity out of the financial system. How? By taking out deposits that ‘balance’ the loans on a bank’s books.

The Wall Street Journal wrote earlier this year:

‘Estimates of capital flight are sketchy, but it appears there was $34 billion of it in the third quarter of last year and $100 billion in the fourth.’

Okay, so $100 billion is barely 0.005% of the combined wealth of China’s richest citizens. But China has extremely strict controls on how much money ‘leaves’ China.

Firstly, no ordinary person can take more than RMB20,000 in cash out of the country… unless of course you’re heading to Macau – China’s government-controlled version of Las Vegas.

If the report from the Financial Times is right, some Chinese have worked out how to get around the limit.

Gambling in the casinos is up 35% in January. While it’s easy to blame it on Chinese New Year celebrations… there’s a little more to the story. After the New Year’s celebrations had ended, the FT wrote:

‘[it’s]… widely believed to be another way to get money out of China, evading the legal limit on cash taken out of the country by gambling on credit and then receiving any proceeds on (foreign currency) cash outside China.’

Again, it’s still only small amount of yuan leaving China. But it could be an indicator of what’s to come.

Victor Shih, a political economics from Northwestern University in the US, estimates the Chinese banking system could handle half a trillion dollars due to capital flight.

But should it continue, Shih anticipates up to a trillion dollars could leave China’s grasp and see the government lower the RRR to 5% or 6% to combat the lack of cash left at the banks.

This means for now, China has a ‘cushion’ of roughly a trillion US dollars. That’s a lot of money. It’s the equivalent to 15% of China’s yearly gross domestic product.

However he predicts the real problem, is those who follow the ‘smart money’, China’s wealthiest 1%:

‘Sizeable outflows from the smart money would see the remaining 9% of top 10% of households follow the smart money.’

Meaning, if the rich see the super-rich moving their assets out of the country, they’ll quickly follow suit.

This exodus of cash could potentially cripple the Chinese banking system. Simply because the loans in Chinese banks don’t really have an end date. They’re either paid or not. So banks constantly ‘roll over’ bad debts. According to Shih:

‘A lot of loans in China are in reality non performing, they just get rolled over, time and time again, so they don’t ever get paid back. So you have a deposit base shrinking and on the asset side the loans are still there which means after a while you have illiquid banks.’

And should this happen, Shih reckons China’s authorities won’t be able to save China’s banks and recapitalise them. ‘China can’t liquidate its entire $3 trillion foreign exchange portfolio… some of it is already invested in Chinese banks and Chinese institutions.’

‘Chinese bank share prices would completely collapse if the Foreign exchange itself began to sell Chinese bank shares…’

But Shih is quick to point out that a capital flight of this level is more a black swan type of event. He says, ‘It’s a tail risk, but one investors should be aware of.’

In that case, what would cause the super-rich to move their cash out of China?

To protect their investments.

When there’s no longer a return on investment, the rich folks would start to move their cash out of China.

And that could have a huge effect on the Chinese economy.

One trillion dollars leaving the banking system may seem farfetched… but if it happens, a capital flight of this size could be the trigger for an economic crisis in China.

Shae Smith
Editor, Money Weekend

The Most Important Story This Week…

Economics teaches us that prices are a signal. It stands to reason then, that the price of oil – the most important commodity in the world – is the most crucial signal to watch. A rising price spells trouble because so much economic activity is dependent on cheap oil. Everyone will feel a rising oil price painfully. It means expensive petrol. Higher food bills. Less air travel. Less discretionary income to spend.

The only way to benefit from a higher oil price is to have an investment correlated to that same price. Trading oil futures is for the hedge funds and investment banks. But oil stocks are within reach of even the most modest retail investor. And right now, these stocks are trading at depressed prices. Many people are risk averse due to the state of the world economy. But energy is a sure bet in one sense. There is no economy without energy: that means guaranteed demand. Low stock prices? A rising oil price? This makes NOW the best time to move into energy, according to our resource specialist Dr. Alex Cowie in Higher Oil Prices – Government Guaranteed.

Other Highlights This Week…

Dan Denning on When Banks and Bonds Go Pop: “The financial system is surviving on massive air/money pumping by central banks to prevent debt deflation and outright collapse. Central banks – at the very centre of the world system they have created – have taken extraordinary measures without precedent to prevent that world from crashing in around them.”

Matthew Partridge on How Expensive Oil Could Hit the Global Economy: “You can also look at oil companies, and shale gas in particular. While it may not be a miracle cure, that doesn’t mean the companies involved can’t profit from the hunt for alternative sources of oil.”

Kris Sayce on Why You’ll Want to Watch This ‘Bad’ Retail Stock Very Closely: “But a time comes when a market is saturated. In the case of retail businesses, it usually means it has opened as many stores as is economically possible, without it having a negative impact on the business. That’s when management has a choice. Do they stop the business growing or do they look at other opportunities?”

Greg Canavan on Gold’s Down… But Still Our Favourite Asset in Today’s Market: “Gold is insurance against the stupidity and vanity of central bankers and politicians. End of story. Even after gold took a beating last night, it’s still the investment that will offer you protection in this bear market.”


Chinese Banks: Will Missing Yuan Trigger a Capital Flight of China’s Black Swan?

Strong Consumer Confidence with Weak Durable Goods

We have mixed news on economic data today. New orders of durable goods decreased 4% MoM in January after seasonal adjustment, lower than the 3.2% increase in December and lower than market consensus of -1%. New orders of core durable goods, excluding transportation, dipped 3.2% MoM in January. Decreases were seen in primary metals, down 6.7% MoM; and machinery, down 10.4% MoM. Non-defense capital goods new orders, excluding aircraft, were down 4.5% MoM, also lower than 3.4% in December. This has been the steepest declined since 2009 and the reason behind it is the tax break that allows expensing full purchasing amount of the business equipments expired. On the positive side, consumer confidence rose to 70.8 in February from revised 61.5 in January, beating market consensus of 63. That’s the highest it has been in the past 12 month. The recent rally in the stock market and drop in unemployment gave American household more reasons to spend.

Analyst Moves: LOW, MSI

Lowe’s (LOW) was upgraded by Morgan Stanley (MS) to equal weight from underweight, as the firm expects higher earnings in the coming quarters, as well as share buybacks to occur. Shares are trading higher by four tenths of a percent.

Monetary Policy Week in Review – 3 March 2012


The past week in monetary policy saw interest rate decisions announced by 6 central banks, with those changing rates including: Tajikistan -80bps to 9.00%, Philippines -25bps to 4.00%, and Uganda -100bps to 21.00%.  Those that held monetary policy rates unchanged were: Israel at 2.50%, Angola at 10.25%, and Hungary at 7.00%.  The European Central Bank also completed its second LTRO, with 529.5 billion Euros allotted to 800 banks.


Looking at the central bank calendar, the week ahead features several key central bank meetings; within developed markets there’s the ECB, BoE, RBNZ, RBA, and BOC, while in emerging markets there’s Poland, Brazil, Indonesia, Peru, and Malaysia. The most important meetings will likely be the European Central Bank, though they may continue to hold current policy settings; and the Banco Central do Brasil, which is likely to cut rates again. The developed market banks will likely hold, while there may be further cuts in emerging markets.

Mar-06
AUD
Australia
Reserve Bank of Australia
Mar-07
PLN
Poland
National Bank of Poland
Mar-07
BRL
Brazil
Banco Central do Brasil
Mar-08
NZD
New Zealand
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Mar-08
GBP
United Kingdom
Bank of England
Mar-08
EUR
Eurozone
European Central Bank
Mar-08
CAD
Canada
Bank of Canada
Mar-08
IDR
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia
Mar-08
PEN
Peru
Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Mar-09
MNR
Malaysia
Central Bank of Malaysia

Bank of Uganda cut Central Bank Rate 100bps to 21.00%


The Bank of Uganda dropped its new monetary policy interest rate (the central bank rate [CBR]) another 100 basis points to 21.00% from 22.00% previously.  The rediscount rate and Bank rate were also reduced by 100 basis points to 25% and 26% respectively.  Bank of Uganda Governor, Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, said: “Looking ahead, BoU will continue to conduct prudent monetary policy to bring inflation close to 5 percent over the medium term and also ensure a firm anchoring of the inflation expectations in line with the BoU’s aim of maintaining price stability”

The Ugandan central bank also cut the rate 100 basis points in February, and last increased its interest rate by 300 basis points in November, and 400bps to 20% in October, after hiking 200bps in September, and 100bps at its August meeting, and previously setting the new central bank rate at 13.00% at its June meeting.  The Bank only recently began using the 7-day interbank rate to influence inflation, also commencing official targeting inflation; the Bank previously announced an inflation target of 7%, and noted it has a 5% core inflation target in its September press release.  

Uganda reported annual headline inflation of 27% in December, down from 29% in November, and 30.5% in October, compared to previous readings of 28.3% in September, 21.4% in August, 18.8% in July, 18.7% in June, 16% in May, and 14.1% in April, while core inflation was 29% in December.  
Uganda reported annual GDP growth of 6.3% in the fiscal year to June, compared to 5.5% in the same period last year.  

The Ugandan shilling (UGX) is flat against the US dollar over the past year; while the USDUGX exchange rate last traded around 2,466, off from the highest (2,885) on record (against a low of 1570 in 2008).

Friday 3/2 Insider Buying Report: BLK, CVC

Bargain hunters are wise to pay careful attention to insider buying, because although there are many various reasons for an insider to sell a stock, presumably the only reason they would use their hard-earned cash to make a purchase, is that they expect to make money. Today we look at two noteworthy recent insider buys.

Friday 3/2 Insider Buying Report: BLK, CVC

Bargain hunters are wise to pay careful attention to insider buying, because although there are many various reasons for an insider to sell a stock, presumably the only reason they would use their hard-earned cash to make a purchase, is that they expect to make money. Today we look at two noteworthy recent insider buys.