InvestMacro FX

By Justin Thomas

You can minimise the risks and get the most favourable exchange rate for a currency transfer if you carefully examine all options the market has to offer

Today”s globalised world is a place where currency transfer have grown into routine for the vast majority of people. Reasons vary from sending money to relatives, to moving or buying property abroad, to financing the activities of businesses of all kinds. While demand for the service is growing, so is supply. Therefore, it is time to consider currency fluctuations in the cost of the transfer itself.

First of all, anybody who wants to move funds abroad will have to buy the destination currency or convert his home currency into it. Hence, you automatically come under the sway of currency exchange rates and currency transfer fees, and have to examine very carefully not only the current exchange rates but also all applicable charges and fees involved in the transfer.

Calculating the cost of the transfer and all affiliated expenses could be an arduous task so a good approach to the problem is to consult a currency transfer expert. Many banks charge a high commission on money transfers abroad plus they offer exchange rates, which not always reflect the actual market situation. Thus, a transfer of, say, $10,000 could result in losing several hundred U.S. dollars after paying all applicable fees and taxes, and converting your dollars in the destination currency.

You cannot avoid fees and/or commissions but can minimise them by selecting a reliable service provider which offers reasonable prices for currency conversions and transfers. As mentioned above, high street banks provide reliable solutions but they cost dear. The same applies to most of the high street money transfer agencies so a possible solution is to look for a currency transfer agency specialising in currency exchange and transfer operations.

As a matter of fact, these types of companies operate in a way similar to that of large banks and money transfer companies but they take advantage of the ever fluctuating exchange rates. In the past couple of years alone, the value of the British pound against the euro fluctuated by 30%, and only an expert is able not to fall victim of currency fluctuations on such a volatile market. Currency exchange companies, also called Forex companies, trade on the international financial markets purchasing and selling large volumes of different currencies and diversify the risks of bad currency exposure, making good profit margins. This way they can offer their clients currency exchange rates close to the market prices, while most banks and money transfer companies will offer you a rate, which is on average 2-3% lower than the current market exchange rates.

Another advantage of using currency specialists is that most of them provide online services and some of them even offer fixed exchange rates for a particular period of time, which is your insurance against future currency fluctuations. However, you should remember that using the services of such a company requires a bank account, too, and is also subject to all applicable regulations. Money transfer companies are regulated companies as well but they are a good choice if you send several hundred dollars to a relative abroad. The transfer of larger sums definitely requires the services of a bank specialist or a currency transfer expert, and it is up to you to decide which service is better, more advantageous and less costly.

By David Adams – The TRIN was developed in 1967 by Richard Arms and is commonly referred to as the Arms Index. It is a widely used index among institutional traders, and used less by individual traders. This can be attributed to the difficult nature of interpreting the indicator, as it contrarian by nature. The TRIN has it’s roots in the analysis of volume, or the breadth of the market. Mathematically it looks like:

Arms Index = (# of advancing issues / # of declining issues) / (advancing volume/declining volume)

It is intuitively obvious from the formula that up and down volume as it relates to share volume is the basis for it’s calculation. Like all indicators a smoothing number of periods is added to give the indicator meaning. For short-term traders and swing traders periods of 4 or 5 days are typically used, but longer term traders use period basis as high as 55. In my experience, it takes a good bit experimentation with the TRIN to find the number of periods that best suits your trading style. As an intraday trader, I seldom use periods over 5, sometimes 5. Many traders graph the TRIN, but my experience is that most traders park it in the upper left hand corner and show it as a simple ratio.

The TRIN has never been an oscillator traders use as a primary indicator, but more as a broader indicator in the package of indicator used to evaluate market conditions. A reading of 1.0 on the TRIN is considered neutral and the market is considered to be in equalibrium. Any reading beneath 1.0 is considered to be a bullish indicator, and conversely, any reading above 1.0 is considered to be bearing. I suppose the real value of the TRIN is to give a trader a quick reading on how the market is actually performing. Another popular interpretation of the Arms indicator relates to it’s ability to predict overbought and oversold levels. If the level is below 1.0 the market is considered to be oversold and the corollary interpretation applies to readings on the indicator over 1.0 as being overbought. In my opinion, the difference in the interpretations is merely a semantic difference, but there are traders that will argue till they are blue in the face there is a definite difference in bullish and bearish vs overbought and oversold. The primary argument centers around the time period indication of the indicator, as the bullish and bearish camp would argue their interpretation indicates buying and selling opportunities.

As I mentioned earlier, I would be hesitant to trade the TRIN as a primary indicator because it suffers, as all oscillators do, as a lagging indicator and therefore requires support from other market indicators to truly be valuable. On the other hand, it lends genuine credence to a bullish or bearish trend when used in conjunction with a primary indicator.

One important distinction to note, and it is a mistake I have seen made, is the inverse relationship the TRIN shares with it’s cousin the TICK indicator, which are often used together. It is important to note that a rising tick indicates a bullish sentiment, while a rising TRIN indicates a bearish sentiment. In a set up using these indicators, then, the TICK and the TRIN would be moving in opposite directions. Of course, divergences (as they always are) from this primary relationship are of great interest to traders and indicate dangerous trading opportunities.

It is important to note that while the TICK indicates the ratio of rising and falling issues, the TRIN is adept at indicating the volume flowing into rising vs falling issues. This distinction is important to note as it indicate two very different monetary relationships. The TICK tells us the ratio of rising vs falling issues while the TRIN differentiates the volume of money flowing into rising and falling issues.

Finally, I would caution most traders to spend some time with the volume studies popularized by Richard Arms, especially his EquiVolume system before diving headlong into the use of these indicators, as the relationship between the two can be difficult to trade without the proper study and trading. On the other hand, once these two indicators are fully understood they can be pure gold in analyzing a market and discerning real trading opportunities.

In summary we have defined the nature of the TRIN, or Arms index, and noted that it moves in a contrary fashion than most indicators. Further, a reading of 1.0 indicates a market that is neutral or in relative equilibrium. On the other hand, readings below 1.0 are indicative of a bullish market sentiment, and readings above 1.0 are indicative of bearish sentiment. Many traders substitute the terms oversold and overbought, respectively, for these conditions and consider the reading genuine buying opportunities. It is important to remember the the TICK and TRIN, both Richard Arms indicators move in opposite directions in a trend, not the same direction.

About the Author

You can learn to trade from a 15 year veteran trader, not a salesmen. This program comes with a lifetime mentoring program and an educational package that is second to none. Additionally, the trading system is time tested and has been in use more than ten years. You can get your free emini starter pack (valued at $500) by going to Click here for your free trading pack at Trading Concepts, Inc

AUDUSD broke below the rising price channel on daily chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 0.9998 level. Deeper decline to 0.9300 is expected in a couple of weeks. As long as 0.9300 level holds, the fall from 0.9998 is treated as consolidation of uptrend and one more rise to 1.1000 area is still possible. However, below 0.9300 level will indicate that the uptrend from 0.8066 has completed at 0.9998 already, then the following downward move could bring price back 0.8700 area.

For long term analysis, AUDUSD is in uptrend from 0.8066, further rise to 1.1000 area is still possible in next several weeks.

Weekly Forex Analysis

By David Adams

One of the simplest and informative trading indicator one can utilize is some version of a moving average. I use them in my own trading, and you should consider doing the same. They are simple in structure and most charting programs have several different types of moving average formulas built into their indicator package.

In my trading, I strike an 89 period moving average on every chart I trade. If the price action is significantly below the 89 period moving average, or has spent most of the day below the average, I simply eliminate any long trade from my thinking.

Why?

I hate trading against the trend and prolonged action significantly below the 89 period SMA tells me the trend for the day is short. Not wanting to imitate a salmon swimming upstream, I simply concentrate on short trading for the rest of the day and avoid the pitfalls of counter trend trading. I realize some people absolutely love digging out that one great countertrend trade, because often they are big gainers, but the number of countertrend trades that set-up looking great, then turn tail back short far outweigh my risk tolerance. I let the others hit the home runs, and settle for three or four singles, with an occasional double thrown in for good measure. In any event, trading with the trend keeps me out of harms way and those devastating big losing trades. I also use the formula for long trades, if the price action is significantly above the 89 period SMA, or stays above the 89 period SMA for a prolonged time, I eliminate any short trades from my thinking. Same principle, I want to stay in the trend.

If the price action is alternating above and below the 89 period SMA all trades are on the table, as no clear trend is established. Further, I don’t concern myself if the price action is one to three points within the 89 period SMA because this certainly isn’t significant deviation from a daily trend. Normal market noise will have the price action oscillating above and below the moving average. No, I am looking for major breaks below the 89 period SMA for my decision process.

So, what is a simple moving average, anyway?

Let use a simple five period simple moving average. The last five periods price has been:

5+6+5+7+4=27 (27/5)=5.4

So the moving average for this five period average has been 5.4. As each period passes a new SMA is calculated and a smooth line connecting these points forms. Voila! You have yourself a moving average line. It’s not uncommon to calculate two different moving averages simultaneously and gauge your entries and exits based on the intersection of these lines. The length of the time period for each SMA depends entirely on the time frame of your trading, with longer term traders using much longer SMA period numbers and short term traders using much shorter SMA period numbers.

Try incorporating some of these moving average techniques into your own trading and you may find a bounty of information you have been missing. Moving averages are valuable tools in the trading process and because of their simplicity are often overlooked.

About the Author

I endorse a state of the art trading program for beginners at Trading Concepts, Inc It’s an awesome product that will have you well on your way to success. Plus, it has a money back guarantee…you have nothing to lose and thousands to gain.

By James McKee – Tensions over failing measures in Europe to stabilize the economy there have resulted in a series of riots and public demonstrations in which some people have been incarcerated or even killed. Countries such as Greece demonstrate the eventual reality of nations that allow their economy to slide out of control. Aside from the economic consequences upheaval in European countries has the added consequence of undervaluing the Euro. Now that France is experiencing financial upheaval in the form of reduced pensions on the part of the French government French citizens have begun to riot in the streets of Paris. While it might not seem like a big deal overall such behavior is certainly negative when it comes the Euro and Europe at large.

Bearing these things in mind the Euro is certainly looking at some trouble in the weeks ahead. Bearing in mind that the USD is also going to experiencing turbulence due to the DJIA undergoing its losses I think the pair EUR|USD is one to stay away from altogether, instead pair these currencies with something more stable such as the CAD and then watch the fireworks. Any instability with regard to currency is a good thing for a smart trader, know which side is stronger and bet accordingly. While it might sound simple just remember to never fall in love with a trade, especially not one made in such a volatile climate. Rest assured that with all the instability already flying around in the market we have not even come close to seeing the last of what is to come.

A lot of people are wondering what will happen if there is a collapse with regard to a European country and what the effect would be on the Euro. Well, despite what the media would have us believe it is not going to spell out doom for the entire world. Indeed the Forex Currency Exchange is a resilient entity and will continue on past the restoration of old economies and the implementation of new ones. There has been a great deal of talk about the “New World Order” and this and that, do not believe the bulk of it for one moment. There is a reason countries go to war with one another and that reason is differences. Sure, it would be nice if everyone could just set aside his or her differences but the world just is not there yet. Great thing for traders, sad thing for the world at large and on that note, happy trading!

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado with 5 years of experience in trading with an attitude of cooperation through education. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

By CountingPips.com

Economic news out of Canada today showed that retail sales increased unexpectedly and higher energy costs pushed consumer prices higher, according to separate data releases by Statistics Canada. Canadian retail sales increased by 0.5 percent to a C$36.1 billion total in August after a revised increase of 0.1 percent in July.

The rise in retail sales was more than expected as economic forecasts were predicting a 0.1 percent decrease for the month. On an annual basis, August’s retail sales level was 3.5 percent higher than the August 2009 level.

Core retail sales, excluding automobile sales, climbed by 0.4 percent in August following a revised decline of 0.2 percent in July. The rise in core sales just missed the economic forecasts that were expecting a 0.5 percent increase for the month.

Contributing to the gain in the retail sales numbers was an increase in furniture and home furnishing stores by 2.1 percent in August. Also contributing positively to the report were notable gains in gasoline stations (+2.1%), food and beverage stores (+0.8%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (+0.7%).

Canadian Consumer Prices rise in September

Consumer prices in the Canada increased in September, according to a separate report released today by Statistics Canada. The Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, rose by 0.2 percent in September after decreasing by 0.1 percent in August.

On an annual basis, consumer prices registered a 1.9 percent increase over the September 2009 level following a 1.7 percent annual increase in August. September’s data matched economic forecasts that were expecting a 0.2 percent monthly increase and a 1.9 percent annual advancement.

Rising energy prices contributed significantly to the higher cpi levels in September. Gasoline prices increased by 5.6 percent on an annual basis through September following a 5.0 percent increase in August on an annual basis.

Consumer prices, excluding energy prices, increased by 0.2 percent in September and by 1.5 percent on an annual basis following a 1.6 percent gain in August.

The Bank of Canada’s core index, released in the report, showed that core consumer prices rose by 1.5 percent on an annual basis in September compared with an annual rise of 1.6 percent in August. On a monthly basis, the BOC core index saw prices rise by 0.1 percent from January to February.

Canadian Loonie mixed in Forex Trading

The Canadian loonie dollar has been mixed today in the currency markets versus most of the major currencies after the retail sales and inflation data. The Canadian currency has increased versus the Japanese yen, New Zealand kiwi and the British pound while trading relatively unchanged or slightly lower versus the euro, U.S. dollar and Australian dollar, according to currency data from Oanda.

By Kent Lucas, Editor, Safe Haven Investor and Global Income Generator

TaipanPublishingGroup.com

The Chinese real estate markets, particularly in the big cities, are clearly are at bubble levels. There’s no way around it.

But here’s the good news: If the bubble bursts, it’s not enough to cause a collapse in the whole economy. Real estate plus housing-related purchases are only 15% of Chinese GDP, so the economic ripple effect will be contained.

And the better news for us is that bubble-popping expectations are already being reflected in Chinese stocks.

In fact, the Shanghai stock market has been a solid underperformer this year.

That creates investment opportunities for us. Sooner or later, inexpensive valuations will have to catch up with the country’s intrinsic growth rate.

And right now, the appeal of Chinese stocks is at very high levels.

Chinese Stocks Are Clear Long-Term Winners

The Chinese market has underperformed this year but clearly has been a long-term winner. Especially when compared to stock markets in developed countries, like the U.S. S&P 500.

If you look back over the past five years as the country and economy has aggressively opened itself up, you can see the impressive performance.

The chart below shows how well the Chinese market has done, up 124%, along with emerging markets in general (via the iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index ETF in red line) up 56%.

That compares with the S&P 500 (blue line), which is down 10% over the same past five years:

Five-Year Performance of the S&P 500 Index, China’s Shanghai Index and the iShares Emerging Market ETF

Source: Google Finance

For those who think that investing in China isn’t safe… I say, baloney. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that in many cases, investing in China is much safer than investing in the U.S.

After all, the S&P 500 is as “safe” as it gets in many investors’ minds. And look how China trounced that.

(By the way, I’m just contributing to Smart Investing Daily today, but regular editors Sara Nunnally and Jared Levy are constantly providing readers with easy-to-understand investment articles.)

I call China a “tipping point” economy — meaning it is an economy growing at a rapid pace. Now, some will argue that China’s economy has already tipped. But just because China has already experienced massive growth doesn’t mean that it won’t continue to grow. As I mentioned, the country’s intrinsic growth rate is still climbing… and now is the perfect time to get in at these oversold levels.

On the other hand, the U.S. is the exact opposite of a tipping-point economy. It is a very mature economy. It’s not growing at a fast pace anymore.

China is getting a lot of attention these days as the wagging tail of the dog that is the global economy. The size of its economy surpassed Japan to take the No. 2 spot behind the U.S. and its demand for global commodities and energy resources is unmatched and insatiable.

China has been the backbone of global demand for energy, agricultural and metals commodities, such as iron ore, gold, soybeans, cotton, sugar, palladium and oil, to name a few. And the country’s demand for these products will only continue.

“China” and “Safety” Are Not Antonyms!

So if you’re looking for “safe”… what can you conservatively do to protect your money while building wealth?

Well, conservative, blue chip stocks are still the best way to build wealth safely. Let me repeat that: Conservative, blue chip stocks are the BEST place to put your money, bar none.
But instead of American blue chip stocks… the key is to find rock-solid, blue chip companies… outside the United States.

As badly as the U.S. consumer is needed to be the linchpin of a global economic recovery, clearly the sheer number of developing market consumers along with their high level of spending is a very powerful trend that smart investors will happily take advantage of to produce outsized investment returns.

And despite China’s real estate bubble… I still believe China is one of the places you’ll see those amazing returns come to life.

P.S. If safe — but very large — gains from all over the world is what you’re looking for, China is just one place to find them. I just put together a brand-new program that my publisher is calling a “conservative investor’s” dream. This new program shows you exactly which “tipping point economies” are ripe for the picking… and the very best way to play them to your advantage. You can get all the details here.

Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter for the latest in financial market news, investment commentary and exclusive special promotions.

About the Author

Kent Lucas is the Editor of Taipan’s Safe Haven Investor and a regular contributor for free financial market e-letter Taipan Daily. He has a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics from Harvard University, his Master’s from Stanford University and over 20 years of financial and business experience. His background includes seven years as a research analyst and portfolio manager for a leading investment management firm. He has also actively managed $1 billion worth of equity assets, with particular attention to multi-industrial companies along with auto, construction and farm equipment-related companies. Kent has also worked in leading financial institutions’ divisions including tax-exempt derivatives, corporate trust, and equities sales and trading.

As the Editor of Taipan’s Safe Haven Investor, Kent uses his stock market investment system and the 13F Disbursement Plan to uncover the most profitable long-term investment opportunities found in the SEC 13F Disclosure Form. Kent extensively combs through thousands of stocks, managed securities, and the total market value of companies listed on Form 13F, and then isolates the one or two stocks that are poised to deliver the best gains with the least risk.

By Anton Eljwizat – The GBP has dropped significantly versus the JPY in the past 2 months, and it is currently traded around 127.40. And now as evident in the data below, the daily chart is giving bullish signals, indicating that GBP/JPY pair might go up. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending movement by having their Entry Orders in place to capture this reversal.

• Below is the daily chart of the GBP/JPY currency pair.

• The technical indicators that are used are the William Percent Range, Slow Stochastic and Relative Strength Index (RSI).

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates an impending bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

• Point 3: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the oversold territory, signaling upward pressure.

• Point 4: The Williams Percent Range has peaked near at the -100 marker, which means that there may actually be a strong level of upward pressure.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

The dollar clawed back some lost ground during the early part of the Asia session, but risk currencies found a bid on remarks from US Treasury Secretary Geithner. He said that G20 countries should cap their external imbalances at a particular, though unspecified, share of GDP. It appears that the aim of any such measure would be to force export-dependent economies to focus instead on stimulating domestic demand, and this should in theory reduce local objections to currency appreciation. Geithner conceded that countries with large raw material exports could be made exempt from such a rule. This proposed exemption would appear to favour Australia, and should be AUD supportive. EURUSD traded in a range of 1.3889-1.3966, and USDJPY stayed in a range of 81.14-81.37. Asian equities are slightly firmer at the time of writing and US equities earlier closed fractionally ahead. FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that “we are not here to ratify what the markets think” suggesting there was no pre-commitment on the November 3 FOMC decision. However, Bullard said that if the Fed did go ahead with further quantitative easing, he would favor asset purchases in increments of $100bn. On the data front, initial jobless claims fell from 475k to 452k for the most current reading. The Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 1.0 from -0.7 previously. The growth-related details of the survey were slightly more positive, with improvement in employment and shipments indices. New orders remained soft, albeit less weak than in September. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser is due to speak at a seminar on regulatory reform. The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are due to convene in Korea.
EUR

Germany’s PMI manufacturing was far stronger than expected in October, coming in at 56.1 vs. 54.6. Services PMI was also strong at 56.6 vs. 54.9 expected. This has managed to lift the corresponding Eurozone figures too, and has provided an extra layer of support for the EUR.
Ahead, the German IFO is due to be released. Our European economists expect the business climate index to weaken slightly to 105.1 (prev. 106.8).
GBP

UK retail sales fell by 0.2% in Sept after a downwardly revised -0.7% decline (-0.5% previously), lower than market expectations of a 0.4% increase. This is the 2nd month retail sales have dropped. The official data stands in contrast to some of the major surveys such as the CBI, BRC and the BoE, which continue to point to retail sales volume growth. We expect retail sales volume growth to strengthen in Q4, ahead of the January VAT hike.
JPY

Finance Minister Noda described as “unrealistic” US Treasury Secretary Geithner’s proposals to limit the size of a country’s current account balance. He added that the G20 meeting is unlikely to discuss the currency policies of any individual country. BoJ Governor Shirakawa said he would not comment on the capital control measures of any individual country. He added that China’s recent rate hike will promote sustainable growth.
CHF

Swiss trade data were much firmer than expected, coming in at CHF1.69bn in surplus vs. CHF1.20bln expected. However, this was largely due to a sharp drop in imports as exports also dipped by 3.8% on the month.
The SNB also announced mass diversification of their assets in Q2, buying over $10bln, ¥1tln, CAD5bln and CHF6bln in other currencies.
CAD

Ahead, Canada CPI readings for September will be released as will retail sales for August.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EURCHF 1.3665 next resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Need a break below 1.3637/1.3559 support zone to trigger the bear trend. Resistance at 1.4159 ahead of 1.4373.
USDJPY BEARISH While resistance holds at 83.03, expect extension of downleg towards 79.75 ahead of 77.91.
GBPUSD BULLISH Remains constructive above 1.5606 keeping our focus on the upside. Resistance at 1.5942 ahead of 1.6107.
USDCHF BEARISH Rise through 0.9729 exposes 0.9918 breakout low. Next big support below 0.9463 at 0.9225.
AUDUSD BULLISH Upside gains held at 1.0004; move above the level would expose 1.0166. Support defined at 0.9662 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
USDCAD BEARISH Tough resistance in 1.0380/1.0407 area. Initial support at 1.0162 ahead of 0.9981.
EURCHF BULLISH Climb through 1.3494 clears the way for a run towards 1.3665 and 1.3924 next. Near-term support at 1.3265 ahead of 1.3072.
EURGBP BULLISH Sudden recovery through 0.8840 and 0.8894 exposes 0.9039 next. Near-term support defined at 0.8773.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is back on the upside; expect gains to target 115.68 and 116.68 next.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Source: ForexYard

With speculations about further quantitative easing and possible currency agreements dominating this week’s trading, the meeting of G20 central bankers is going to continue to be the focus coming to next week and will likely provide a volatile trading day, particularly for the USD.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Unable to Reverse Downward Trend

The USD seems unable to bounce back from the downward spiral it has been experiencing for the last several weeks. Investor concerns regarding the quantitative easing package likely to be unveiled by the Fed as early as next month, have led to steady losses for the greenback. In addition, disappointing employment and housing figures have caused confidence in the US economy to tumble. It appears that the new norm for the EUR/USD pair is to trade above the $1.4000 level, while the USD/JPY consistently hits fresh 15-year lows.

Despite yesterday’s better than expected unemployment figure, the greenback was unable to capitalize on the positive data. In addition, the Philly Fed Manufacturing data came in well below expectations. Barring any significant positive data from the US economy, the dollar is likely to remain at its current levels.

Today, a lack of significant news means that dollar values will be determined by indicators from Europe and Canada. Traders will want to pay attention to the German Ifo Business Climate figure as well as the Canadian Core CPI, scheduled to be released at 8:00 and 11:00 GMT respectively. Positive results for either indicator will likely lead to a further drop in dollar values.

EUR – Euro Maintains Gains against Most Currency Rivals

Despite significant economic concerns throughout the euro-zone, the 16-nation single currency has been able to capitalize on the investor return to risk taking. Yesterday, positive data from both Germany and China helped boost the currency throughout the day. The euro has made gains against most of its main currency rivals in recent weeks, specifically against the USD. The EUR/USD pair continues to trade around the $1.4000 level.

Ahead of this weekend’s meeting of the G20, investors appear to be fairly certain that recent improvements in the global economy will continue to occur. Analysts are predicting that the euro will largely maintain, if not increase, its recent gains to close out the week. Traders will want to pay attention to today’s German Ifo Business climate figure. As the largest economy in the euro-zone, German data tends to have a large impact on the marketplace. The Ifo figure is a survey of businesses throughout Germany, and is considered to be a leading economic indicator. A figure above the forecasted level of 106.5 may boost the euro in afternoon trading.

JPY – Investors Remain Concerned About Possible BoJ Intervention

A return to risk taking has led to big losses for the Japanese yen against the euro. That being said, the currency is consistently hitting fresh 15 year highs against the US dollar. With the USD/JPY pair trading around the 81.00 level, investors are fairly concerned that the Bank of Japan will once again move in to devalue the yen. Japan, which is largely dependent on its export industry, relies on a weak yen to prop up its economy.

Today, JPY pairs will largely be influenced by data coming out of Europe. Should any of the indicators set to be released today generate more investor risk taking, traders can assume the yen will take more losses against the euro. At the same time, the JPY is considered a much safer bet than the dollar at the moment. Any significant bullish trend for the USD/JPY pair seems unlikely to occur in the near future.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Continues to Rise as the USD Falls

With the US dollar consistently hitting fresh lows against several of its main currency rivals, crude oil has quickly become a solid alternative for investors looking for a safe investment. The commodity has seen significant gains as of late, and will likely maintain its high levels as long as the greenback remains down.

Today, should positive data from both the euro-zone and Canada cause the greenback to take further losses, traders can anticipate crude oil will increase its recent upward trend. At the same time, negative data may lead to a return to risk aversion in the marketplace. Should this occur, traders may want to go short in their crude oil positions, as a downward correction may take place.

Technical News

EUR/USD

After seeing a very volatile session yesterday, the pair is currently trading near the 1.3960 level. A bullish cross of the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic suggests that the pair might resume its bullish trend today, with potential to reach the 1.4100 level.

GBP/USD

The cable continued with the bearish correction yesterday, and has fallen below the 1.5700 level. It recovered slightly, however, and is currently trading around the $1.5740 level. As the MACD on the daily chart continues to point down, the pair might see further bearishness today. Going short might be the right choice.

USD/JPY

The pair’s bearish trend was halted during the past few days, as the USD/JPY is now trading above the 81.00 level. However, as all the oscillators on the weekly chart are pointing down, the pair might see further drops today. Going short with tight stops might be the right strategy today.

USD/CHF

Over the past few days the pair has corrected some if its losses, and is currently testing the 0.9700 level. If the pair will manage to breach through the resistant level it could reach as high as the 0.9775 level today.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

Gold saw a significant bearish correction since the last weekend, and is now trading around $1,327 an ounce. At the moment both the 4-hour chart and the daily chart provide bearish indications, suggesting that the bearish move has more steam in it. This might be a great opportunity for forex traders to join a popular trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

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