U.S. Durable Goods Orders on Tap

By Yan Petters – The U.S. dollar entered a bullish trend yesterday for the first time in three months. This was due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will increase debt purchases. The market has reacted positively to the speculations, largely because they feel U.S. inflation will go up as a result. Economists agree that this is a necessary step by the Fed, and that it will have positive effects on the economy. This was enough the support the dollar yesterday.

However, this might have little effect on today’s trading, due to the large amount of significant economic releases from all over the world.

Here are today’s leading economic indicators:

• 12:30 GMT, U.S. Core Durable Goods – This report measures the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items, which tend to distort the underlying trend. If the end result will beat analyst’s expectations for a 0.4% rise, the dollar might rise further.
• 14:00 GMT, U.S. New Home Sales – This is one of the most significant housing sector indicators in the U.S. and thus tends to have a large impact on the market. Analysts have forecasted that 301,000 new homes were sold on September. Such a result will mark the best figures in 3 months, and is likely to support the dollar.
• 20:00 GMT, New Zealand Official Cash Rate- This is in fact New Zealand’s interest rates announcement for the following month. Current Expectations are that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will leave rates at 3.00%. However, if the RBNZ will surprise and decide to hike rates, the NZD might be boosted as a result.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Dollar Recovers Ahead of Heavy News Day

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. dollar gained against most of its major rivals yesterday, for the first time in three days. The dollar’s recovery came due to speculations that the Federal Reserve will increase debt purchases. Investors believe that this step will spark inflation in the U.S. and will strengthen the greenback as a result. As for today, several news releases are expected from the U.S. and the euro-zone. This is likely to create large volatility in the market in what promises to be a very exciting trading day.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Strengthens On Speculations Fed Easing Will Accelerate Inflation

The U.S. dollar gained against most of the major currencies on Tuesday. The dollar strengthened against the euro for the first time in 3 days, and the EUR/USD fell as low as the 1.3825 level. The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen as well, gaining about 100 pips in a single trading day.

The dollar rose against most of the major currencies on speculations that an increase in debt purchase by the Federal Reserve will spark inflation. The current sentiment in the market is that the Federal Reserve will manage to accelerate inflation, and as a result demand for the greenback has increased.

In addition, a positive U.S. Consumer Confidence release supported the dollar yesterday. Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in October from a seven-month low. The index increased to 50.2 from a revised 48.6 in September, beating expectations for 49.3. The recovering confidence came despite disappointing labor market figures which were recently released. This has increased optimism that the U.S. economy is recovering, and as a result boosted the dollar.

Looking ahead to today, a batch of data is expected from the U.S. economy. The most significant releases look to be the Durable Goods Orders figure and the New Home Sales report. Analysts have published positive forecasts for both reports. If the end results will indeed show positive signals, the dollar might strengthen for the second day in a row.

EUR – Euro Drops On All Fronts

The euro fell against all of the major currencies during yesterday’s trading session. The euro dropped about 140 pips against the U.S. dollar, and the EUR/USD reached the 1.3825 on Tuesday. The euro fell about 140 pips against the British pound as well, and the EUR/GBP has reached the 0.8730 level.

The currency dropped yesterday as investors became unwilling to boost the euro further due to the uncertainty of U.S. elections and Federal Reserve meetings. Analysts claim that the market feels unease with the EUR/USD trading at the 1.40 level, especially during such an uncertain period, and a technical correction was simply a measure of time. Another reason for the euro’s depreciation is speculations regarding an increase in debt purchases by the Federal Reserve, which may cause inflation to accelerate in the U.S. This has increased demand for the dollar, and as a result damped demand for its major rival, the euro. It currently seems that as long as the U.S. economy will continue to provide recovery signals, the euro might fall as a result.

As for today, several interesting economic indicators are scheduled from the euro-zone. Special attention should be given to the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index and the M3 Money Supply report. Both indicators are expected to provide positive figures. This will show that the euro-zone’s economic condition is improving as well, and may support their currency.

JPY – Yen Drops On Fears of another BOJ Intervention

The Japanese yen fell on Tuesday against most of its major counterparts. The yen dropped about 100 pips against the U.S. dollar, and the USD/JPY pair rose to the 81.60 level, from a 15-year low on Monday. The yen’s most notable fall came against the British pound, as it fell about 200 pips, and the GBP/JPY cross reached above the 129.00 level.

The yen fell yesterday due to comments made by Japanese officials, which some refer to as “verbal intervention”. The Japanese Vice Finance Minister Fumihiko Igarashi said yesterday that Japan cannot make an announcement in advance that it will act, but on the other hand, Japan can’t say that it won’t act either. It appears that despite public criticism made by the G20 regarding the Bank of Japan’s former intervention, investors still fear yet another intervention. For now this appears to be enough to halt the yen’s bullishness, and to weaken it from record highs.

Looking ahead to today, the most significant news release from the Japanese economy looks to be Japan’s Retails Sales report. This report measures the total value of sales at the retail level. Analysts have forecasted that retail sales in Japan rose by 3.3% in September. If the end result comes in as predicted, the yen might strengthen as a result.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Remains Steady Around $82.50 a Barrel

Crude oil saw a very volatile trading session yesterday. Crude began yesterday’s trading with a bearish trend, and dropped to almost $81.80 a barrel. However the commodity managed to rebound later on and by the end of the day was trading above $82.80.

Crude oil began yesterday’s trading with a downtrend due to the dollar’s appreciation. The dollar gained against most of the major currencies, especially the euro, and as a result dollar dominated commodities, such as crude oil, were weakened. Crude corrected losses later on in the day following the U.S. Consumer Confidence report. The report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers rose in October from a seven month low, and boosted speculations that demand for energy will increase in the U.S.

As for today, traders are advised to follow the major economic releases, especially from the U.S. as these are likely to have a large impact on oil trading. Traders should also follow the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories release, which is scheduled for 14:30 GMT, as this report usually has an instant impact on the market.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair dropped sharply yesterday, after peaking at the 1.4080 level on Monday. At the moment, the Slow Stochastic and the MACD on the 4-hour chart continue to provide bearish indications, suggesting that the downward movement will continue today.

GBP/USD

The cable saw a bullish correction yesterday, and has reached as high as the 1.5895 level. However, the RSI on the 4-hour chart has now dropped below the 70-line, indicating that a bearish move may be impending. Going short with tight stops might be the preferable strategy today.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair gained about 150 pips over the past couple of days, and is currently trading near the 81.70 level. Currently, the pair is testing the 82.00 resistance level. If it manages to breach it, the pair may rise towards the 83.00 level. Otherwise it may drop back towards the 80.80 level.

USD/CHF

There is a very distinct bullish channel formed on the 4-hour chart, and the pair is now floating at the middle of it. In addition, the MACD on the daily chart continues to point up, suggesting that the uptrend has more steam in it. Going long might be the right choice today.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

Crude oil trading was very still over the past three days, and has remained around $82.20 a barrel. However, as a bearish cross takes place on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, and the 4-hour chart’s RSI has dropped below the 70-line, a bearish move appears to be imminent. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to catch the trend at its beginning.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Forex daily analysis 27-10-2010

USD/JPY

Daily graph: http://www.real-forex.com/charts-daily/271010/JPY_DAILY_271010.JPG

USD/JPY daily

For quite a long period, and until the 25-10-2010 session, the evolution of the pair was clearly downward. Two sessions ago, the support of 80.86 was tested. Following that little and short breach, the pair started to increase again during last session, creating an opportunity to go “Long”.

The test of the support, in addition to the new uptrend, created the increasing envelope template, indicator of future reversal, which should be confirmed by the identification of an increasing configuration on 1 H graph.

Potential trade

1 H graph: http://www.real-forex.com/charts-daily/271010/JPY_1H_271010.JPG

USD/JPY 1H

The required configuration should be created once the pair will cross the resistance of 81.64 on 1H graph. In such a case, entering the following transaction might be very profitable:

  • “limit” order on “Long” position 10 pips above the mentioned resistance: 81.74
  • “Stop Loss” on the last “Low” occurred, which is 81.18.
  • “Take Profit” on the next resistance which is 81.91.

NZD/USD

Daily graph: http://www.real-forex.com/charts-daily/271010/NZD_DAILY_271010.JPG

NZD/USD daily

For several sessions already, the pair is navigating between 0.7550 and 0.7425. In the session of 25-10-2010 the pair reached the 0.7560 USD and started to go down in the following session. The way the pair will behave once the support of 0.7425 reached will determine the best strategy.

If a test occurs (vain breach of the Support), going “Long” might have positive consequences.

If the support is crossed and broken downward, going “Short” after a small technical correction could be more adapted to the situation.

Keep following the evolution of the pair and act in function

Have a profitable day!

Real-Forex team. logo

Forex Economic Calendar: October 27, 2010

By CountingPips.com

Important News Releases – October 27, 2010

00:30 Australia consumer price index
01:00 Eurozone German consumer price index
02:00 New Zealand business confidence
05:00 Japan small business confidence
08:00 Eurozone money supply
12:30 United States durable goods orders
12:30 United States durable goods orders minus transportation

14:00 United States new-home sales
14:30 United States crude oil inventories
20:00 New Zealand interest rate decision
23:50 Japan retail trade

See full Calendar here

US Pledges To Not Devalue Currency

By James McKee

As the United States begins to consider stepping up its presence in the export world it pledges not to get into “currency wars” with other major nations as things grow worse in the world economy. The incentive to devalue currency of course lies in other countries being encouraged to purchase your goods since they are now cheaper to purchase. This will become more and more of a temptation for the US and other fully developed countries if the economic downtrend continues. As it stands now the US has pledged not to do this, but as things continue to worsen I wouldn’t take anything off the table.

As traders we must stay up to date at all times with announcements from the Federal Reserve and other centralized banks throughout the world such as the Bank Of England and the Bank Of Japan. Its has also been a rather typical trend for the US to do everything it claims it won’t, bearing this in mind don’t be surprised if the Federal Reserve and the United States Treasury decide to go ahead and devalue currency anyway. There has been talk of the US entering the export industry once again, if this does occur we are going to be faced with the very real temptation of devaluing our own currency to encourage a higher rate of export sales.

It is important to note however that the USD and Chinese Yuan are currently stapled to one another and so if the Chinese do decide to begin spending any of their enormous surplus then the dollar’s value would rise. This would of course decrease the United States’ ability export at a rate that is desirable, and probably undermine the whole process to a large extent. These things all point to a sign of severe change for the US dollar as well as “smaller” currencies. While the G20 was very informative much of that information remains to be assessed in terms of just what it stands to mean in the long run.

Approach the USD and all major currencies with extreme caution in the forex exchange in the coming weeks as these countries begin to implement this year’s IMF strategy. As always, happy trading!

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

The Sexiest ETF Chart of the Week

By Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily, taipanpublishinggroup.com

I spend most mornings trolling my wheelhouse of sites for charts that look interesting, giant cup of coffee in hand.

I tend to look over a large spread of different sectors, to really get a good lay of the land. This morning I found a chart that just can’t be ignored… and what I liked about it even more than its technicals was where it’s based.

Sure, this has been a good week for U.S. companies, with GOOG, NFLX, UPS and more all reporting blowout numbers and the inflate-a-rally continuing to drive multinational companies like PEP, KO and MCD to all-time highs. (Hopefully, you read my article and positioned yourself appropriately.)

Our guest editor, Kent Lucas, wrote this week about China and how it is vastly misunderstood. In his opinion, which I share, the bulk of Chinese investments are viewed as extremely risky. I believe it’s unfair to make any blanket assumptions without looking deeper into the numbers. Of course, risk is relative in investing and any stock carries with it unique risks that you must understand.

So, in the spirit of reducing risk by diversification and looking for a way for you to invest in China, I found an exceptional ETF that has outperformed the incredibly popular FXI (China 25 index), the GXC (S&P China Index) and the FCHI (China HK listed) over the past year. In fact, this ETF is up more than 20% YTD, while the FXI is only up about 10%.

“China is hoarding this commodity…”

No, it’s not gold, silver or uranium. You’ve probably never heard of it, but it’s essential to almost all modern technologies like TVs, phones, laptops and defense systems.

REVEALED: 4 different companies that produce this commodity, all with the opportunity to make 150% or more…

Why I Like This Fund

The MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH:NYSE) provides its investors with returns based on the performance of the MSCI Hong Kong Index, the index that accounts for about 85% of the total market cap in the Honk Kong equity market. Keep in mind that many of the companies listed in the MSCI are tradable here in the U.S., but most only on the “pink sheets,” which can be illiquid and hard/expensive to trade.

Since the fund began in 1996, it has returned an average of about 5.4% to investors, but has really taken off as of late.

The index contains a blend of all types of companies with the bulk of them being financial firms (over 60% as of Sept. 30, 2010). The next largest holdings are in utilities (13%), consumer discretionary (12.5%) and industrials (11.4%).

If you believe in China’s continued growth story like I do (and you should!) and are looking for an efficient, diversified vehicle to get you there, the EWH offers a relatively lost-cost, low-stock-price way to do it.

(Investing doesn’t have to be complicated. Sign up for Smart Investing Daily and let me and my fellow editor Jared Levy simplify the market for you with our easy-to-understand articles.)

Longer-Term Technicals

I wanted to take a step back for a second and look at the weekly chart of the EWH, because I believe the story here could be longer than a week or two.

From the late 2008 high of $24.29 to the low of $8.36 (that is the widest, most recent range), you can see the Fibonacci retracement line. I think this recent rally is sustainable with a minor retracement moving the ETF down to the $18.40 price level, which is 61.8% of the move that I indicated. There is much stronger support down at $16.40, which can be your absolute stop level if $16.40 is violated with bearish momentum.

There is upside resistance at around $20 and again at $21 and then the high at $24, so if you are in the stock and approaching those levels, you can sell an at-the-money covered call to hedge yourself against “stickiness” at those levels or a pullback.

EWH Weekly Chart

EHW Weekly Chart
View Larger Chart
Source: Freestockcharts.com

In the Short Term

From a daily chart perspective (below chart), I feel the index has had a tremendous run, but has stayed within the confines of its “normal” trading patterns. It is most likely that the index will see a small pullback, like what we saw yesterday, and provide us with an entry right around the 20-day moving average, which is right around the $18.60 level, 20 cents above the Fib retracement level I was looking at. I think that area looks to be the preferred entry point.

If you are long, monitor the 50-day moving average for support. You can maintain the position as long as EWH maintains that level and the $16.40 level I discussed earlier; if it breaches either, that may be time to exit as it could be a change in trend. Trading breakouts can be risky, but very profitable at the same time. EWH did break out of its prior trading range in mid-September, but in my opinion, this sideways “channeling” should be the pause the index needs for the next leg up.

EWH Daily Chart

EWH Daily Chart
View Larger Chart
Source: Freestockcharts.com

Summary

The bottom line is that the EWH can provide an excellent diversified vehicle if you want to put some money to work in China with exposure to many different hot sectors like finance, the evolving (and spending) consumer and industry.

The breakout chart that we see above is an indication of its recent and hopefully continued strength as long as those simple technical rules are followed. EWH is a great long-term buy.

P.S. I’d certainly classify myself as a “chart guy”… but my colleague Adam Lass is a bona-fide chart guru. He developed a proprietary charting system that just celebrated its 10th anniversary — and in those 10 years has pumped out mind-boggling gains like 787%… 403%… 507%… 493%… and many, many more! If you’re a “chart guy” — or looking to become one — check Adam out.

Gold Went Up 76%… But This Made 975%

In every gold bull market of the past century, this investment class has outperformed physical gold. Over the past two years, one member of this class made 12 times more than physical gold.

Find out what about this gold investment.

Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter for the latest in financial market news, investment commentary and exclusive special promotions.

About the Author

Jared Levy is Co-Editor of Smart Investing Daily, a free e-letter dedicated to guiding investors through the world of finance in order to make smart investing decisions. His passion is teaching the public how to successfully trade and invest while keeping risk low.

Jared has spent the past 15 years of his career in the finance and options industry, working as a retail money manager, a floor specialist for Fortune 1000 companies, and most recently a senior derivatives strategist. He was one of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange’s youngest-ever members to become a market maker on three major U.S. exchanges.

He has been featured in several industry publications and won an Emmy for his daily video “Trader Cast.” Jared serves as a CNBC Fast Money contributor and has appeared on Bloomberg, Fox Business, CNN Radio, Wall Street Journal radio and is regularly quoted by Reuters, The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo! Finance, among other publications.

G20 Favoring Emerging Nations Over The Western World, Major Currencies May Suffer

By James McKee

In the recent G20 summit it was decided that smaller countries would have a say in what occurs with the regard to the International Monetary Fund. Emerging economies such as India are fairing better than those of developed western nations. Among the large developments in the G20 was the urging of China to allow its currency to appreciate, but their was opposition to this idea because more expensive Chinese imports would make it difficult for emerging countries to purchase their goods. If China’s money were to appreciate it would also cause the value of the USD to rise since the two are stapled to one another.

While the Indian Finance Minister feels that the IMF is making an effort to include emerging nations in its decision making process he feels that they have a long way to go. Developed nations still account for the vast majority of voting power and decision making with regard to the IMF and as emerging nations have more and more of an impact on the world’s economies they are indeed having a say in what occurs. Whether or not this is occurring fast enough to accommodate will be left to history to decide.

The current attitude overall at the G20 summit was an optimistic one, speaking of the need for all countries to take part in the economic recovery of the world. It is being said that China is not doing their part because they are holding on to their currency reserves and not spending it; this maintains the low-cost of their products while their producers lose money. For a long time China has been seen as an un-cooperative partner with regard to the recovery of the world economy for this reason.

The G20 and its fallout will have numerous repercussions for the Forex exchange including a USD that may actually continue to rise. A great deal of what comes out of the G20 summit relies solely on what China decides to do with the Yuan. If they begin to spend more money it will rise, if they continue to hold out the Yuan will remain low. For China’s own prosperity the Yuan should stay low, however with mounting pressure from other nations China may actually allow it to rise, only time will tell.

About the Author

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the forex exchange rates regularly.

EUR/SEK Likely to Drop Following Spike

By Dan Eduard – EUR/SEK saw a massive spike of almost 1500 pips on Tuesday, following comments from Sweden’s central bank regarding future interest rate hikes. While the pair is still moving up, technical indicators are showing that a downward correction is likely to occur in the near future. Krona traders will want to pay close attention to the pair

We will be looking at the daily chart for EUR/SEK provided by Forexyard. The technical indicators being used are the Williams Percent Range, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD.

1. The Williams Percent Range is currently right above the -20 level. This is typically seen as a sign that the pair is in overbought territory and may correct itself in the near future. Should the indicator continue to move up, the bigger the chance that a reversal will take place.

2. The Relative Strength Index has not yet approached overbought territory, but appears likely to approach that area shortly. Currently the RSI is right around the 60 level. If traders see the indicator go above 70, it can be taken as a sign that downward pressure exists for the pair.

3. Finally, the MACD has formed a bearish cross, indicating that a reversal is likely to take place in the near future. Traders will want to watch out for a sudden correction for this pair, as significant profits can be made when the downward breach occurs.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

DAX 30 Index Reversals in the Making

By Anton Eljwizat – The DAX 30 Index has recorded much bullish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, as I demonstrate below, the 8-hour chart signals that a bearish reversal is imminent. This might be a good opportunity for CFD traders to enter the trend at a very early stage and a great entry price.

• Below is the 8-hour chart for DAX 30 Index by ForexYard.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, RSI and Williams Percent Range.

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick formed in the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The RSI signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, suggesting downward pressure.

• Point 4: Williams Percent Range also supports the downward direction.

DAX 30 Index 8-Hour Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Forex Daily Market Commentary

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

The dollar was largely range-bound throughout a quiet Asia session, with little news or economic data to act as drivers. Asia equity performance has been mixed, although the S&P 500 closed fractionally ahead. EURUSD traded 1.3908-1.3993, USDJPY 80.67-80.89. Kansas City Fed President Hoenig again called for Fed rate hikes and claimed that embarking on another round of QE would be a “dangerous gamble”. New York Fed President Dudley said that he “would put very little weight” on what the market has priced in for the scale of further easing – the FOMC will decide what is best to satisfy its mandate. He said that if the Fed sticks to its mandate, then the dollar will look after itself. Existing home sales rose more than expected in September at 10.0% and the upturn in contract closings, reflected in the data, appears roughly consistent with the earlier improvements in mortgage applications and in initial sales contract signings in the pending home sales index. Although the sales pace was still weak on a historical basis, sales appear to have bottomed. The current activity index in the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey rose to 2.6 in October from -17.7 in September versus consensus -8.0. Other regional surveys had previously shown improvement or at least a fading of weakness. S&P/Case Shiller, Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey are due.
EUR

ECB Governing Council Member Weber said he saw no point in commenting on euro levels though he was critical of excessive currency volatility. Weber said the quicker the European interbank market recovers, the quicker the ECB should be able to withdraw nonconventional measures and return to a more normal monetary policy. He also said current rates are appropriate but the ECB should not keep rates too low for too long.
At 24.4% y/y (cons. 17.1%, prev. 11.2%) and 5.3% m/m, Eurozone industrial new orders for August were well above expectations. The trend in new orders suggests that industrial activity may continue to hold up. The August numbers benefited from a lower euro but it remains to be seen how recent appreciation will affect external demand.
EURUSD long positioning remains near this year’s extremes and we are still cautious on chasing significant upside above 1.40.
JPY

Rhetoric levels from Japanese officials escalated over the past 24 hours, despite the G20 pledge to “refrain from competitive devaluation”. Finance Minister Noda said Monday’s FX moves were somewhat one-sided, a term he used ahead of the Sept 15 act of intervention. He also noted that the G20 felt excessive FX moves were undesirable, a clear indication that he sees justification in the text of the communiqu? for further intervention. Noda said he is watching FX markets with great interest and is ready to take decisive action when needed.
Economy Minister Kaieda warned that “excessive intervention should be avoided but the government can be allowed to do so if currency moves are volatile and one-sided”. Deputy Finance Minister Igarashi also suggested that FX intervention remains very much an option and said: “A surprise move would probably be effective to some extent. We can’t make an announcement in advance that we will act, but, on the other hand, we can’t say that we won’t act either.” He had earlier said that any intervention would be aimed at restraining excessive currency swings and the latest G20 language appeared to give them the green light on that basis.
GBP

The advance estimate of Q3 GDP is expected lower at consensus 0.4% q/q (UBSe 0.5%) after 1.2% previously. But on a y/y basis, we expect to see an increase from the previous reading. We remain cautious on sterling given the government’s recently announced spending cuts.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDJPY targets 79.75.
EURUSD BULLISH Remains constructive above 1.3637/1.3559 support zone, trigger to bear trend. Resistance at 1.4159 ahead of 1.4373.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair targets 79.75 with scope for 77.91 next. Resistance at 81.49 yesterday’s high.
GBPUSD BULLISH Holds above 1.5606 keeping our focus on the upside. Resistance at 1.5942 ahead of 1.6107.
USDCHF BEARISH Recovery has scope for 0.9918 breakout low. Next big support below 0.9463 at 0.9225.
AUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential targets 1.0004; move above the level would expose 1.0166. Support defined at 0.9662 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of 1.0162 brings focus back to the downside with next support at 0.9981. Tough resistance at 1.0380/1.0407 area.
EURCHF BULLISH Violation of 1.3665 leaves next resistance at 1.3924. Near-term support at 1.3456 ahead of 1.3265.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect extension of gains towards 0.9039 and 0.9150 next. Near-term support defined at 0.8773.
EURJPY BULLISH Need a break below 111.56 to trigger bear trend. Upside capped at 115.68.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.