InvestMacro FX

Hello finance peeps! Today I’m going to talk about crude oil. If you have been tuned in to the markets for the last several months, perhaps you know or at least have heard from someone that commodities like gold and silver have recently marked their new historical highs. But unlike those two metals, the people’s “black gold” managed to stay out of the radar. In fact, during the time when both gold and silver were making new highs after another, the price of crude oil has only traded sideways – between $70.000 per barrel and $87.350. As you can see from it’s weekly chart, the price of crude oil is now trading right at the trading range’s or the box’s resistance. Two scenarios can occur next. One is that crude could break above the said resistance. If it does, then it’s next upside target would be at the psychological 100.000 level. But given it’s overbought condition, it could also bounce off the resistance and weaken once again.

The question now is, will crude oil follow the gold’s path?

The US Federal Reserve’s (central bank) decision to flood the market with more dollars by buying additional $600 billion worth of long-term US Treasuries or US debt over the next eight months only further dilutes the greenback’s valuation. Of course, it is the intent of the central bank to lower the day-to-day lending rate in the US to encourage more lending, thus, more spending. So just by looking at the US’s money supply, the expected and earmarked increase in money would as we know reflect negatively on the dollar against other assets like the anti-dollar currencies, commodities like gold, and now perhaps even oil.

Investors, of course, would have no choice but to divert their funds away from the greenback to commodities like gold and now, silver as they presummingly retain their intrinsic value. And given the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power, the oil producers/sellers which have accounts receivables that are denominated in dollars would sooner or later be forced to hike their prices or at least influence such by controlling the supply end to compensate for the USD’s downfall. On the demand side, since oil is essentially the lifeblood of the global economy as practically most industries run on it, an improvement in the state of the global economy which would increase business activity, would consequently increase the need for oil as well, reflecting an to a higher price.

Therefore, a jump in the prices of crude would of course boost the oil companies’ revenues, thus, making their shares more attractive. Such would likewise reflect on currencies like the Canadian dollar or the Loonie. In case you do not know, Canada’s major export to its neighbor down south (the US) is crude. Hence, an increase in oil demand from the US given a expansion in oil prices as well would push Canada’s overall output (in terms of dollars) also. Furthermore, it has been observed that crude oil and the Loonie have a relatively high positive correlation. Meaning, an increase in the prices of oil would usually reflect on the CAD.

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By Russell Glaser – While the dollar may be the largest casualty from the Fed’s commitment to purchase 600 billion dollars worth of US government bonds, the biggest winner may be crude oil.

Following the Fed’s announcement that essentially loosens US monetary policy, crude oil is testing its highest price since May.

A weak dollar is one reason for the rise in the price of crude oil. As the greenback weakens, crude oil becomes less expensive for those who hold foreign currencies. Another reason for the price increase in crude oil is the expected recovery in the US economy.

Looking at the weekly chart of crude oil, we can see that a key resistance level rests between $86 and $87 dollars. This resistance level stems from instances in December of last year and May of the current year.

We will be looking for a close above the $87 level to induce further buying of crude oil.

Two resistance levels traders should keep in mind are the $90.50 mark, along with the psychologically important $100 a barrel price.

This week’s supports rest at the mid October low of $79.80 and the long term rising trend line at $76.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

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USD/CHF

Daily Graph: http://www.real-forex.com/charts-daily/November2010/CHF_DAILY_081110.JPG

3The downtrend of the last three weeks was corrected until an important resistance at 0.9933 was reached. The pair, after it stopped exactly on the mentioned resistance, started to decrease very sharply.

On Friday’s trading session, the pair reached a support at 0.9547. Due to the strength of the support, a new bullish trend is expected. In order to catch that opportunity and go “Long” with the new trend, the identification of an increasing configuration is recommended before entering any “Long” trade.

Potential trade

One-Hour graph:  http://www.real-forex.com/charts-daily/November2010/CHF_1H_081110.JPG

Once the resistance (One-Hour resistance) of 0.9642 will be crossed upward, the required configuration should be created. Then the transaction could be entered. Following is one of the different possibilities of market orders:

–       “Limit” order on “Long” position 10 pips above the mentioned resistance, meaning: 0.9642.

–       “Stop Loss” on the last low appeared: 0.9569.

–       1^st Degree to “Take Profit”, on the following resistance which is: 0.9696.

CAD/JPY

Daily graph: http://www.real-forex.com/charts-daily/November2010/CAD_JPY_DAILY_081110.JPG

There is a clear navigation between 81.78 (resistance) and 78.66 (support). Actually, the pair is currently on its way to the upper level. Its behavior when the resistance will be reached will determine the future trend as well the future potential trade:

–       A vain breach of the resistance could result in a new downtrend, allowing an opportunity to go “Short.

–       The resistance is crossed and broken. In such a case, an opportunity to go “Long” should be created after the occurrence of a technical correction and the identification of an increasing configuration on One-Hour graph.

Have a profitable Day!

Real-Forex team.

By Yan Petters – Gold finished last week’s session with an extraordinary bullish move which took the metal commodity as high as $1,398 an ounce. At the moment, many analysts claim that gold is about to breach the $1,400. However, as the 4-hour chart shows us, a bearish correction might take place beforehand.

• The chart below is the spot gold 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• It can be seen that as long as gold was trading above the Bollinger Bands, the bullish momentum proceeded. However, once gold dropped below the higher band, a correction of gains took place. As a result gold dropped to $1,386 an ounce.
• At the moment, the Slow Stochastic has completed a bearish cross, suggesting that further bearishness might be impending.
• The RSI is pointing down as well, yet it is still trading above the 70-line. If the RSI will drop below the 70-line, it might validate the extension of the current bearish move.
• The next support levels are located at the $1,386, $1,373 and $1,362 levels.
• The nest resistant level is found at the $1,400 level.
• Traders should take under consideration that once the bearish correction is completed – gold is likely bounce back up. And once gold breaches the $1,400 resistant level, the psychological effect is likely to boost gold prices further, with potential to reach $1,410 and even $1,420 an ounce.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)

USD

A better than expected US payrolls report along with renewed concerns about Ireland weighed on the euro and kept the greenback supported in Asia. EURUSD traded 1.3919-1.4085 and USDJPY traded 81.14-81.44. Friday’s headline October payrolls reading rose by +151k (cons. +60k), and private payrolls expanded by +159k (cons. +80k). The average work-week lengthened to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings rose by +0.2% m/m. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.6%. In a rare reference to the dollar, Bernanke said that “we’re certainly aware that the dollar does play a special role in the global economy”, and that “the best fundamentals for the dollar” will occur when the US economy is growing strongly. Treasury Secretary Geithner reaffirmed that a strong dollar is in the interests of the US, and that the US will never use its currency to gain competitive advantage. He said the flow of capital into emerging markets is fundamentally positive as it shows confidence in their growth prospects.
EUR

Initial official estimates showed Greek Prime Minister Papandreou’s ruling party ahead in local elections. As such Papandreou ruled out a snap early election, which he had threatened to call should the majority of the population not stand behind his party. After the majority seems confirmed Papandreou said that “making changes is not easy. Greek people brought us to power a year ago and today confirmed that they want this change. We will continue with our task tomorrow”.
Rising credit spreads on Irish debt have started to weigh on the euro. EU commissioner Rehn arrives in Ireland today to evaluate the country’s budget plan. The Irish government presented a plan which intends to introduce austerity measures totaling EUR6 bn.
German industrial production for September is the only notable release due today. EU Commissioner Rehn will hold a press conference together with Irish Finance Minister Lenihan.
GBP

On Friday, Producer price inflation in the UK for October was higher than anticipated as input prices rose by +2.1% m/m and +8% y/y compared to expectations of +0.8% and +7.2%. This provides further evidence that there are underlying price pressures in the UK economy, although for the moment it appears that they are being internalized by firms as relatively weak demand means price hikes are not yet being passed on to consumers.
JPY

BoJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi said the central bank will start buying government bonds under its outlined asset purchase scheme today. He added that downside risks to the economy need to be watched carefully and that the central bank is ready to act flexibly should the economy weaken further.
Prime Minister Kan invoked the recent G20 statement to justify Japan’s Sept 15 intervention. He said the G20 agreed that rapid currency moves are not desirable and “that is why we intervened in the market once”. He added that “if we face a rapid surge in the yen again, such a step may become necessary”.
AUD

Prime Minister Gillard said that the strong AUD would reduce government revenue in general, and that it would especially affect revenue anticipated to flow from the proposed mining tax. Our Australia economics team still expects another 50bp of RBA tightening in H1 2011.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EURJPY pressure on 115.68
EURUSD BULLISH Next resistance above 1.4373 lies at 1.4579. Support is at 1.3992.
USDJPY BEARISH Little support below 79.75 till 77.91. Resistance at 81.99
GBPUSD BULLISH Upside potential targets 1.6379 with scope for 1.6458 next. Support comes in at 1.6080.
USDCHF BEARISH Break below 0.9463 would open up the way towards 0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972
AUDUSD BULLISH There is little resistance above 1.0222 till 1.1084. Support at 0.9891 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
USDCAD BEARISH Outlook is bearish; the pair eyes 0.9981 ahead of 0.9820. Resistance at 1.0156.
EURCHF BULLISH Resistance is at 1.3834 and support is at 1.3435
EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8942 and 0.8652 mark the near-term directional triggers.
EURJPY BULLISH Upside pressure on 115.68; scope for 116.68 and 119.33 next. Support comes in at 112.83.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Russell Glaser – The dollar was stronger at lunchtime during the European trading session as the euro stumbled following renewed concerns over Greece and Ireland’s fiscal troubles. Canadian housing data is due out this afternoon and the USD/CAD shows a setup to short the pair.

Following a better than expected US Non-Farm Payrolls report last week, the dollar continues to strengthen. Japanese traders bought the dollar from the opening bell and the buying continued into the European trading session.

Signs of fiscal difficulty are reemerging in Europe and have driven the euro lower today. Rising costs to insure the debt of Ireland have sparked worries that Ireland may be the next nation to activate the European mechanism for nations that cannot meet their bond payments.

The drop in the dollar comes despite a bright spot in Greece as voters there reaffirmed their support for the socialist ruling party and at the same time affirmed their support for the government’s strict austerity measures. This should end the possibility of new elections in Greece and allow for the implementation of the tough austerity measures that Greece will undertake to shed its budget deficit.

At lunchtime in the European session the EUR/USD is trading lower near the 1.39 level, after opening the day at 1.4031. The USD/CHF is up at 0.9680, following an opening day price of 0.9610. The EUR/CHF is trading at 1.3450, down from its opening price of 1.3485.

The economic calendar is sparse for the US trading session with only Canadian housing starts set to be released. The USD/CAD is trading up at 1.0035, but better than expected data from Canada may reverse the price appreciation from today and send the pair lower in line with the long term trend. An opportunity to enter short on the pair may present itself as the pair has risen but failed to break the minor trend line that begins at the end of October. Traders may want to target the mid October low of 0.9980 while placing a protective stop above the trend line should the pair continue to appreciate today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Following last Friday’s better than expected US Non-Farm Payroll’s figure, the greenback continues to make gains against its main currency rivals. The EUR/USD pair has fallen below the 1.4000 level and is continuing its decline. The USD/JPY pair is holding onto the gains made on Friday, and is currently trading around the 81.25 level. Today, a lack of significant US news events means that the dollar may see some unexpected movement, as a low volatility situation may lead to erratic market behavior.

Economic News

USD – Greenback Extends Friday’s Gains

The most recent US Non-Farm Payrolls figure gave the dollar a much needed boost to close out last week’s trading session. As a result of the employment figure, the greenback was able to correct some of the losses it took following the Fed’s quantitative easing announcement last Wednesday. Investor confidence in the US economy has increased, if only slightly, and the dollar has been able to capitalize on the news.

The EUR/USD pair, which tumbled well over 100 pips following the release of the payrolls figure, continues to drop. Currently trading around the 1.3945 level, the pair has broken the psychologically significant 1.4000 support line and does not appear to be in store for an upward correction in the immediate future. In addition, the GBP/USD pair has dropped over 90 pips in overnight trading. Currently trading around the 1.6115 level, the pair may continue to fall in trading today.

A lack of US news today means that dollar values will largely be determined by other countries economic indicators. Traders will want to pay particular attention to the Canadian Housing Starts figure at 13:15 GMT. A drop in the number of new homes compared to last month is forecasted. If true, the USD/CAD pair may see some bullish movement in afternoon trading.

EUR – EUR Tumbles amid Renewed Debt Concerns

The combination of last Friday’s positive US employment figure and renewed concerns about Irish debt have weighed down on the euro going into this week’s trading session. The EUR has already fallen over 100 pips against the dollar since markets opened last night. In addition, the 16-nation single currency has tumbled against the safe-haven yen. Since markets opened for the week, the EUR/JPY pair has fallen close to 100 pips and is currently trading around the 113.30 level.

Today, traders will want to pay close attention to the German Industrial Production figure, set to be released at 11:00 GMT. Germany possesses the largest economy in the euro-zone, and economic indicators from the country tend to play a disproportionately large role in euro values. Analysts are predicting today’s figure to come in at around 0.6%, which if true, would signal a marked decrease in industrial production from last month. Should the forecasts turn out to be accurate, the euro may extend its bearish movement today.

JPY – Yen Sees Mixed Results in Overnight Trading

Starting off the week, the yen saw gains against a number of currencies in overnight trading. The Japanese currency was boosted by renewed debt concerns in the euro-zone, as well as a much worse than expected German Factory Orders figure released on Friday. As such, the EUR/JPY pair fell around 100 pips since last night and is currently trading around the 113.30 level. Against the UK pound, the yen gained approximately 65 pips in overnight trading. The GBP/JPY pair currently stands at the 130.90 level.

While the safe-haven yen has seen gains against virtually all of the riskier currencies in overnight trading, it has not been able to recoup the losses it took against the greenback following Friday’s US Non-Farm Report. The USD/JPY pair is virtually unchanged since markets opened for the week, and is currently trading steady at the 81.15 level.

Today, traders will want to pay attention to the German Industrial Production figure. Should it come in at its forecasted level, investors may continue to abandon their riskier assets in favor of safe-havens. In such a case, the yen may be able to extend its recent bullish trend.

Crude Oil – Crude Jumps Following Non-Farm Data

Friday’s US Non-Farm data gave crude oil a significant boost to close out the week. Crude saw a 125 pip spike on Friday afternoon, and closed out the week trading close to $87.50 a barrel. Analysts attributed the gains to the better than expected employment data, but cautioned that as long as the dollar maintains its current bullish trend, crude gains will likely be muted. Since markets opened last week, the price of oil has already dropped around 50 pips.

Today, crude prices will largely be determined by where the dollar moves. Analysts remain cautious about the US economic recovery. Any negative US news will likely cause the greenback to slip, in which case, oil will likely move up as a result.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Stochastic Slow on the 4-hour chart indicates a bullish cross has formed, meaning that upward movement is likely to occur. This theory is supported by the Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart, which is currently below the -80 level. Traders are advised to go long with tight stops today.

GBP/USD

Technical indicators are showing mixed readings for this pair. The 8-hour chart’s Relative Strength Index is currently floating in neutral territory, which means that major movement is not predicted. At the same time, a bearish cross has formed on the MACD in the same chart. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for the pair today, as a clearer direction will likely present itself later on.

USD/JPY

Most technical indicators show the pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no clear direction is known at this time. This includes the Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart and the Stochastic Slow on the 8-hour chart. Traders will want to wait for a clear direction to present itself before making any major moves today.

USD/CHF

The Relative Strength Index on the 8-hour chart is currently floating in oversold territory, indicating a bullish correction is likely to occur today. In addition, a bullish cross on the MACD in the 4-hour chart has formed. Traders will want to go long in their positions today.

The Wild Card

Silver

After experiencing a prolonged bullish run, silver now appears to be in overbought territory, and poised for a downward correction. A bearish cross has formed on the 8-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the 4-hour chart is floating well into the overbought region. Forex traders may want to go short with tight stops today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By David Adams

When asked about futures trading, or day trading in general, the average fellow on the street will generally answer with something along the lines of, “dabbling in the market is like Las Vegas, you can get lucky or be unlucky” I always get a chuckle out of this answer, as the fellow is obviously not trained in trading futures, or the stock market in general.

Do you believe the market is just a matter of luck?

Most day traders will tell you about their favorite set-up or the “trade that always works,” and their are countless anecdotes about trade set ups that have never lost money. Of course, I would point out from the onset here, that no trade “always” works. Even the best set-ups go south from time to time. To count on a trade working every time will find a trader deeply disenchanted with trading theory. There is a logical answer to this dilemma though, and most traders understand this concept. They learn that trades and certain set-ups, and exits, for that matter, are a function of probability, and probability can either be your friend or your worst enemy.

In the world of probability, the complete range of potential outcomes are possible, however, certain outcomes within this range have higher probabilities than others. This makes sense. For example, an individual walks down the sidewalk on a busy street every day at 8 a.m. may experience several outcomes during her/her walk.

1. A car may jump the curb and run her over. 2. She may trip and fall, injuring herself. 3. She may trip and fall, not injuring herself. 4. She may walk along the route of her trip without incident. 5. She may walk and have a heart attack.

The list for possible outcomes for a walk on a busy street are nearly endless, and I have only listed a few, for purpose of example. But there are multitude of possible outcomes that an individual may experience on a walk. Which is most probable? Without analyzing a large set of observations it is not possible to scientifically give you this answer. But logic tells us that on most days he/she walks down the sidewalk on a busy street without incident, as most people do. To be sure, the vast majority of times the individual takes this walk it is an uneventful task given little thought. However, does that mean that on the first day he/she makes this walk she will not fall and break her arm? No, because falling and breaking her arm is within the range of possible outcomes of her walk. See? I think you get the idea.

Trading is very similar to this example, but when trading it is important to understand that on a given trade there are a vast set of possible outcomes the accompany each trade. One outcome will have the highest probability, and then there will be a subset of less likely possibilities. In other words, in the world of probability (whether it is walking down the street or trading a futures contract) there are a wide range of possibilities.

Now let’s throw another variable into the trading mix: Time. In probability, the shorter the time interval being examined the higher the accuracy of probability theory. Conversely, the longer the time period under examination the lower the accuracy of predicting an outcome. Why?

As time passes, new variables enter any equation and the ability to account, in a probabilistic sense, the potential outcomes of the action in question becomes more difficult. Put more simply, more things can happen over a long period than a short period. But it is still important to realize that the full range of possibilities can occur over any period of time, but some probabilities are less likely in shorter time frames. That reason alone, was enough to justify my commitment to short term trading years ago. There were other factors, of course, but it stands to reason that trading in highest probability set is a very appealing approach to trading futures contracts.

Okay, okay, so I can hear you saying you get the basis premise of probability. So what does probability have to do with trading? Well, the same principle that applied to the individual walking down the sidewalk on a busy street applies to trading. Every trade has a set of potential outcomes and each outcome has a potential probability. Over the years, trading theorist have developed certain set-ups that have a higher probability of success than other set-ups. Further, we stated earlier that the short period of examination results in higher degrees of accuracy, from a probability standpoint.

I trade intraday, usually in three minute intervals. Of course, the first bar of any trade has a binary outcome, that is, it can either go up or down. We will exclude the null set in this example, which would be the price stays the same. The second bar in the trade also has the same set of outcomes, and so forth. Since I trade in very short time intervals, I feel my ability to apply the theory of probability and test the possible outcomes of certain oscillator/price action outcomes produces a higher rate of success than trying to predict potential outcomes over a longer time period. Hence, in the complicated formulas used to predict probability, I stand a higher chance of choosing the trade with the highest probability of success.

There are a myriad of books written on the probability of trading and set-ups and they make fascinating reading and I recommend further exploration of probability and intraday futures trading. The literature can bring many aspects of trading into sharper focus and dispel the notion that intraday trading is simply an expression of individuals who do not fully understand the underpinnings of trading.

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The foreign exchange market also known as the Forex is the place where trading made in currency and exchanges are made. Here, international banks as well as other legal finance organizations help people to buy or sell currencies of different countries. The buying and selling usually takes place in the method that one party pays a sum of money for a quantity of a particular country’s currency in exchange of paying for a quantity for another currency. The success that the Forex has reached now had its roots in the 1970’s since when it started slowly evolving. Currently, Forex has become one of the largest liquid currency markets in the world where different banks from all over the world trade with each other and besides them other corporations and even governments trade in this market. On a daily basis, there have been reports that the turnover in the market is above $3.2 trillion!

The reason why the Forex exists is to make international trade easier, it also facilitates investments. Since there are so many national currencies all over the world such as the US Dollars, Euro, Rupees, Sterling etc. trading with such multiple currencies becomes impossibly difficult, therefore the Forex is a savior in such cases. Forex Institutional Trader and Forex Margin Calculator are terms that one must associate with when understanding Forex.

However the Forex is quite different from the general stock market. There anybody from the general public as well would be offered the same prices for a stock, in the Forex there are different levels for different groups or organizations to access at the top level are the banks. Depositing Funds is essential and only top level banks would be part of the entire process. International and the top banks trade with each other here, the spreads (refers to the difference between the asked price and the bids) are known only to these banks and nobody outside this inner level. After these top banks come the lower banks, as per international standards and the smaller investment banks. These are then followed by the multinational companies who trade internationally. Also, investment management firms from all over the world take part in the Forex markets. They use the Forex to make exchanges making financial securities easier. The other important players of the Forex are those multinational companies who need to pay for their goods or services internationally.

Today, Forex has reached door to door and through Online FX Advantage, one can easily get knowledge of the forex and understand its basics. Now you would not need to worry about terms like Pip Calculator, ECN or CFD.

However, in their cases they trade in rather low sums as compared to the top banks and other financial organizations. Usually their activities in the Forex have very short term affects on the Forex if any. The national central or service banks also play an important role in the Forex. They help in controlling inflation in crisis situations and also regulate the money supply for the interest or the growing rate for exchange.

http://www.fxcentral.net/