Author: FX_Trdr

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By CountingPips.com

The Euro rose today against the US Dollar in forex trading action following up an increase on Friday. The EUR/USD pair peaked over the 1.3100 exchange rate today before retreating to just around the 1.3100 level at the close of the New York trading session at 5pm EST. Today’s close was the highest closing price since April 16th when prices ended the day at approximately 1.3176.

The levels at 1.3100/1.3125 present resistance obstacles to the upside. Piercing these levels would bring a retest of 1.3200 that provided resistance twice recently on April 16th and April 17th. Below looms the major level at 1.3000 which would likely bring a base of support.

Will the Euro be able to maintain its strength?

The European Central Bank interest rate meeting is coming this week on Thursday and there is market speculation of a potential rate cut. A rate reduction could very well sap any upside energy for the euro and perhaps we see a retest of 1.3000 level. But there are two more trading days before then and we can only wait and see how it plays out.

Pivots and Trends Data:

Weekly Pivot Point: 1.30310
Monthly Pivot Point: 1.28883

Linear Regression Indicator Trend / Strength Data:
30-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 297.8 pips
60-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -121.2 pips
90-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -570.1 pips
180-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 171.3 pips
365-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 373.3 pips

Happy Trading!

Article by CountingPips Forex Blog, News & Analysis

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Weekly Commitment of Traders Data by CFTC shows which way Large Traders and Hedge Funds were leaning the previous week in the Futures Market

By CountingPips.com

The latest weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders trimmed their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week against the other major foreign currencies after slightly increasing their bets the previous week. Total speculator positions have continued to show little movement in the past few months, as can be seen from the chart above.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, registered an overall US dollar long position of $24.94 billion as of Tuesday April 23rd. This was a small decline from the total long position of $25.18 billion on April 16th, according to position calculations by Reuters (US dollar positions against the total positions of eurofx, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The individual currency contracts quoted directly against the US dollar last week saw increases for the Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar while the euro, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and the New Zealand dollar all had a declining number of net contracts for the week.

Individual Currency Charts: (Please Click on Chart to Enlarge)

EuroFX: Weekly change of -4,511

EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro decreased last week after rising for two consecutive weeks. Euro contracts fell to a total net position of -34,275 contracts in the data reported for April 23rd following the previous week’s total of -29,764 net contracts on April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO

British Pound Sterling: Weekly change of +1,863

GBP: British pound spec positions improved last week to increase for a second consecutive week. British pound speculative positions rose last week to a total of -60,112 net contracts on April 23rd following a total of -61,975 net contracts reported for April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

Japanese Yen: Weekly change of +13,681

JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts rose last week after falling to the lowest level since March 12th the previous week. Japanese yen positions improved to a total of -79,730 net contracts on April 23rd following a total of -93,411 net short contracts on April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

Swiss Franc: Weekly change of +4,432

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions improved last week for a fourth consecutive week and to the best position since February 12th. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures improved to a total of +1,179 contracts on April 23rd following a total of -3,253 net contracts reported for April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

Canadian Dollar: Weekly change of +4,234

CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved slightly last week after falling for three straight weeks and to a new low level in 2013. Canadian dollar positions edged higher to a total of -71,679 contracts as of April 23rd following a total of -75,913 net contracts that were reported for April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

Australian Dollar: Weekly change of -21,918

AUD: The Australian dollar large spec positions declined last week for a fourth consecutive week and to the lowest level since March 12th. Aussie speculative futures positions fell to a total net amount of +31,257 contracts on April 23rd after totaling +53,175 net contracts as of April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

New Zealand Dollar: Weekly change of -3103

NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions declined last week after advancing for the previous four weeks and to a new 2013 high level. NZD contracts fell to a total of +27,705 net long contracts as of April 23rd following a total of +30,808 net long contracts on April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

Mexican Peso: Weekly change of -4377

MXN:Mexican peso speculative contracts edged lower last week after rising the previous week. Peso positions fell to a total of +146,911 net speculative positions as of April 23rd following a total of +151,288 contracts that were reported for April 16th.

Last Five Weeks of Euro Fx Large Trader Positions: MXN

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis

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