Author: FX_Trdr

By Fast Brokers – Both the Cable and the EUR/USD are making a commitment to their respective uptrends today after finishing the week on an indecisive tone.  Investors are showing a clear preference for riskier investment assets despite U.S. unemployment data printing worse than expected on Friday.  Investors are being encouraged by the G20 statement from this weekend’s meeting in favor of continued loose monetary policies until the global economy is on a better footing.  Such solidarity is boosting investor confidence since the latest central bank meetings were ripe with speculation.  Speaking of which, the BoE’s decision to inject 25 billion into QE as opposed to the expected 50 billion is helping fuel the Cable’s topside breakout.  Furthermore, investors should keep in mind that both Britain’s Services and Manufacturing PMIs are outperforming, showing that the economy is recovering nicely despite the poor Prelim GDP.

Technically speaking, the Cable has responded by charging well beyond our previous downtrend line running through August highs.  Therefore, the Cable is indicating that a continued topside breakout towards the August highs and the psychological 1.70 level may be around the corner.  As for the downside, we’ve readjusted our uptrend lines to compensate for today’s positive movements.  That being said, the GBP/USD still has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 11/6 and 11/5 lows, not to mention the psychological 1.65 level is no working in the currency pair’s favor.

Meanwhile, gold has broken past its psychological $1100/oz level, another positive catalyst for the Cable considering the precious metal’s negative correlation with the Dollar.  Additionally, the S&P futures are trading higher by nearly 1% pre-market while the EUR/USD tests our key 3rd tier downtrend line and its psychological 1.50 level.  Hence, the Cable’s correlations are creating an environment supportive of further broad-based Dollar weakness.  Britain will release its Trade Balance data tomorrow, and analysts are expecting a slight improvement from the previous number considering the encouraging PMI data as of late.

Present Price: 1.6791

Resistances: 1.6797, 1.6812, 1.6830, 1.6847, 1.6876

Supports: 1.6761, 1.6730, 1.6714, 1.6688, 1.6662, 1.6621

Psychological: 1.65, August Highs

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Dollar’s odd, negative reaction to Friday’s surge in the U.S. Unemployment Rate has carried through strongly into Monday’s session. We’re seeing broad-based Dollar weakness as well as a gold breaking through its psychological $1100/oz level. Additionally, the S&P futures are trading up by nearly 1% pre-market, likely a reaction to the weakening Greenback. Friday’s discouraging U.S. unemployment data supported the belief that the Fed will not be able to tighten liquidity for quite some time. In fact, this weekend’s G20 meeting concluded with the group of nations stating they will keep the liquidity flowing until further confirmation of an economic recovery. Such unity hasn’t been seen since all of the central banks acted together when reducing rates and implementing their respective stimulus packages. This statement of solidarity is renewing investor confidence which has been struck by recent speculation that more central banks will follow Australia’s lead. As a result, investors are feeling more comfortable about getting back into riskier vehicles, and the EUR/USD is clearly reaping some of the benefits.

The EUR/USD is also being driven higher by impressive Industrial Production data from Germany (2.7% vs 1.2% expected). Investors will receive ZEW Economic Sentiment tomorrow. Should the ZEW data print better than expected, the EUR/USD might have enough momentum to carry though 1.50 and October highs. Technically speaking, the psychological 1.50 area proved to be a worth psychological barrier back in October. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the currency pair interacts with 1.50 this time around. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD could be on the cusp of a more extensive topside breakout considering how close the currency pair is trading to our new 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines. These downtrend lines run through October highs. Hence, investors should keep a close eye on these trend lines since a movement beyond these barriers could indicate heightened upward momentum for the immediate-term. As for the downside, we’ve shifted our downtrend lines to compensate for today’s topside activity. The EUR/USD still has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions to go along with intraday and 11/6 lows.

Present Price: 1.5001

Resistances: 1.5013, 1.5036, 1.5049, 1.5062, 1.5085, 1.5127, 1.5146

Supports: 1.4994, 1.4983, 1.4966, 1.4947, 1.4927, 1.4909, 1.4895

Psychological: 1.50, October Highs

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Source: ForexYard

While the Dollar drops against the major currencies due to the disappointing U.S employment data from Friday, the strongest trend in the market appears to be the bullish gold. Gold continues to break new record highs on a daily basis, and has now reached over $1,100 on ounce. Can it reach higher?

Economic News

USD – Dollar Slides on Negative Employment Data

The Dollar saw an extremely bearish session during last week’s trading. The Dollar dropped around 200 pips against the Euro, and the EUR/USD pair rose to the 1.4900 level. The Dollar also dropped close to 300 pips against the Pound.

Last week’s trading has started with a rather bullish sign for the American currency. The Dollar strengthened on all fronts following a few positive publications on Monday. The most affective publication appears to be the Pending Home Sales, which showed that the change in number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transactions, rose by 6.1% during September, beating expatiations for a 0.2% rise. Due to the fact that the housing sector was the catalyst for the crisis, positive housing data tend to support the Dollar.

However, close to the weekend the Dollar saw a sharp downtrend, which came as a result of the disappointing employment data. The Non-Farm Employment Change report showed that the U.S economy lost 190,000 jobs in October, failing to reach expectations for a 173,000 loss. This has led the Unemployment Rate to reach 10.2%, a 26-year low. The total number of unemployed people in the U.S rose to 15.7 million.

As for the week ahead, many interesting data is expected from the U.S economy. On Thursday, the weekly Unemployment Claims will be published. Considering the poor employment data from last week, this report will become even more important. Traders are also advised to follow the U.S Trade Balance on Friday. This report measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during September. It seems that unless positive figures will be published for both these reports, the Dollar might continue to weaken.

EUR – Euro Rises against the Majors

The Euro rose against most of the major currencies during last week’s trading session. The Euro’s most notable appreciation was against the Dollar as the pair rose to the 1.4900 level. The Euro also saw a bullish trend against the Yen, and currently the EUR/JPY pair is traded at the 134.0 level.

Two main reasons have led to the Euro’s bullish trend last week. The first reason was a batch of positive economic data, which came from the Euro-Zone’s leading nations. The German Factory Orders, which measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, rose by 0.9% during September. This was the fifth consecutive positive figure for this report. In addition, the French Budget Balance and the Trade Balance also delivered better-than-expected results. This has created a sentiment that the European economies are truly recovering, and as a result strengthened the Euro.
The second reason for the Euro’s uptrend was the disappointed data from the U.S economy. The poor employment condition in the U.S turns many investors to look for other investments than the Dollar, and this naturally strengthens the Euro.

Looking ahead for this week, a batch of data is expected from the Euro-Zone. Traders are advised to follow the major publications from the German economy, as this is the strongest economy in the Euro-Zone, and tend to have a significant impact on the Euro. The German Economic Sentiment is scheduled for Tuesday. Another result above 56.0 for this survey is likely to support the Euro. In addition, the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is expected on Friday. This is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health, and thus tends to have an immense impact on the market.

JPY – Yen Sees Mixed Results against the Majors

The Yen saw a volatile session against the major currencies during last week’s trading. The trading was characterized with many ups and downs and was concluded in a downtrend for the Japanese currency. This was mostly noted against the Pound, as the GBP/JPY pair rose to the 151.30 level.

The main publications from the Japanese economy didn’t seem to have a large impact on the Yen. The Average Cash Earnings dropped by 1.6%, beating expectations for a 2.0% drop. This continues to show that the Japanese economy is yet to recover. The Leading Indicators report, which is a composite of 12 economic indicators and is designed to predict the direction of the Japanese economy, reached expectations for a 86.4% result. However, this deports had little affect on the Yen, as it is once again proven that what impacts the Yen mostly are the publications from the U.S economy. Because the Japanese economy relies on American consumption, it is quite clear that negative U.S data will have a negative affect on the Japanese economy. As a result, the Yen weakened due to the poor employment data from the U.S.

As for this week, the most impacting data from the Japanese economy appears to be the Core Machinery Orders report, schedueled for Tuesday. This is a leading indicator of production, and thus tends to have a large impact on the Yen. In addition, traders should follow the leading publications from the U.S economy, as they have proven to have a sustain affect on the Yen.

Oil – Oil Rises Due to Hurricane Ida Concerns

Crude Oil underwent a very volatile session last week. Crude oil began last week’s session with a rising trend, and a barrel of oil was traded for $81.0. However, a change in trend took place then, and crude oil dropped to $77.0 a barrel.

Currently, as storms are shutting export terminals and production in Mexico and Hurricane Ida is entering the southern Gulf, oil prices are rising once again, and a barrel of crude oil is now traded for $78.50. Hurricane Ida is currently expected to weaken as it crosses production regions of the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, traders should keep an eye on the developments of this issue, as it is likely to impact the prices of oil throughout this week.

In addition, on Thursday, the U.S Crude Oil Inventories data will be released. This indicator tends to have an immediate impact on crude oil, and traders should follow its result. Traders should also follow the leading publications from the U.S as they have proven to have a large impact on crude oil’s value.

Technical News

EUR/USD

There is an impending bearish cross forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. The downward direction on the hourly chart’s RSI also supports this notion. When the downward breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD cross has experienced a bullish trend for the past week. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end. The RSI of the daily chart shows the pair floating in the overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction will happen anytime soon. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.

USD/JPY

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bearish cross forming on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

The Wild Card – Gold

Gold prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $1103.25 for an ounce. However, the 4-hour chart’s RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Weekly Report for 9^th-15^th November

Investor’s were cautiously optimistic last week as market participants pushed stocks and various currency pairs higher on the beliefs that global growth has returned to the forefront.  The broader market, S&P 500 Index, gained 3.2% or 33 points for the week closing at 1069.  The Dow Industrial Average regained ground above 10,000 forming a technical pattern that could spark higher levels.  The strong correlation between the dollar and the equity markets continued, and although gold pushed to new all time highs, the majority of the commodity complex lost ground during the week.

The markets started the week on a positive note as news in Asia, US and Europe showed that the manufacturing sector was improving. The readings in all the regions were better than expected and all signaled manufacturing expansion.

On Tuesday the markets continued to remain subdued even after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a point signaling continued strong growth prospects in Australia. Central bank Governor Stevens said that “rates could continue to climb gradually”, words that signaled to the market that inflation was well contained.

On Thursday the markets received additional positive news from Europe which contributed the powerful rally in the equity markets.  The European Commission released new forecasts that generally better than its previous releases. The EC now expects the euro zone economy to expand by 0.7% next year. This was a vast improvement, especially as officials previously thought that the region’s economy would contract by 0.1%. One must note that the IMF is less sanguine and forecasts a 0.3% expansion next year, half of what the EC envisions.  The EC places this year’s contraction at -4%, while the IMF see it a tad deeper at -4.2%.  The EC sees unemployment rising to 10.7% in 2010 and the IMF 10.9% in 2011.

The markets also took solace in the central bank announcements from the ECB, BOE and FED.  The underlying theme is that none of the major central banks are in any hurry to remove stimulus from the markets.  On Friday, the markets had to absorb a less than gratifying US employment number.  The headline number that made the papers was the rise of unemployment to a whopping 10.2% from the 9.8% in September.  Economist where expecting a 9.9% figure.   Nonfarm payrolls fell by 190,000 last month, with the largest job losses in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. Economists were expecting a 175,000 decrease.   Since the start of the 2007 recession, the number of unemployed has increased by 8.2 million and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3 percent.  Although the equity markets remain subdued, the commodity market, excluding precious metals were hit hard.  Crude Oil lost $2.25 to settle at 77.37 per barrel.  Gold hit another new all time high settling at 1096 per barrel after India purchased a large quantity of gold from the IMF.  With China lurking as an additional bid in the market, gold pushed to new highs on Friday.

The dollar dropped lower this week as currency traders looked at short dollar positions as a way of taking additional risk.  Positive fundamental data early in the week pushed the dollar lower against the Euro, Sterling, Yen and Australian dollar.

Forex

The AUD/USD rallied after the RBA tripled its growth forecast in the Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement and made it clear that interest rates could see higher levels in the future.   Even though certain investors jumped on the AUD, speculating that rate hikes could come sooner than expected, Governor Stevens sent a direct message to the market on Thursday, warning of a gradual approach.  The Australian dollar is currently trading at its highest level in over a week supported by risk-on trading and the encouraging prospects for the Australian economy.  The RBA’s 2009 estimate is now 1.75% growth, up from 0.5% at its last forecast in August. For 2010 the central bank sees the economy expanding by 3.25%, up from 2.25% previously.  Governor Stevens cited exports and the resources sector as key supports for growth, with China clearly a major influence on the economy. The bank also sees core inflation slowing to 2.25% in 2010 from 3.25% this year, bringing it right into the RBA’s 2%-3% target band. From a technical point of view a break above A$0.9200 on a stronger than expected jobs number this week could see a move back toward the year’s highs around A$0.9330.   After testing trend line support early in the week, the AUD/USD pushed to higher levels near .9175.

The pound spiked to $1.66 following the BoE’s announcement that it would raise its asset purchase program by GBP25 billion to GBP200 bln.  While the door was left open to further stimulus, the amount was on the lower end of expectations and the comments on the economy were more upbeat with a pickup in activity likely to be evident soon.  Even though the U.K is still lacking strong fundamental, the GBP/USD’s current technical pattern, presenting a potential inverse head and shoulders could spark additional buying to the upside.

Week Ahead

This week the market will be watching the EMU Sentix Confidence Index on Monday which will be followed by business condition in Australia on Tuesday.  The EMU Zew confidence survey will also released on Tuesday.  On Thursday all eyes will be on the Australian Employment Report which will be followed by the EMU Industrial production and US Jobless Claims.  Friday’s data will also have a major impact on the markets a Japan is scheduled to release its Industrial Production, while the Euro-zone will release it GDP figure. Analysts are expecting a 0.8% quarterly figure, while the yearly figure is also expected to come out better than expected at -4.8%.

Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By GCI Fx Research

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

€

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4810 level and was capped around the $1.4915 level.   The major news in the markets today revolved around the U.S. October non-farm payrolls report where it was indicated the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high of 10.2%, far above the 9.8% prior reading and above expectations.  Similarly, the change in non-farm payrolls was off 190,000, worse-than-expected and worse than the positively-revised 219,000 print in September.  Wages data came in stronger-than-expected at +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y and average weekly hours remained steady at 33.0.  These data evidence a deteriorating labour force though some economists cite the deceleration in job losses as proof of a possible forthcoming inflection point.  Other data released in the U.S. today saw September wholesale inventories off 0.9%. down from the prior reading of 1.3%, while September consumer credit was off US$ 14.8 billion, down from the prior reading of –US$ 12.0 billion.  After the non-farm payrolls data were released today, the fed funds futures market indicated the Fed would lift its target fed funds rate to 0.31% by the middle of 2010, down from 0.33% before the data were released.  In eurozone news, German Chancellor Merkel pessmistically noted “We aren’t at the point yet where we can say that, internationally, we have taken the regulatory precautions so that such a crisis is not repeated.”  Data released in Germany today saw September manufacturing orders climb 0.9% m/m, the seventh consecutive monthly improvement, while the rate was off 13.1% y/y.  The Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision was released this week in which officials noted the economic recovery continues and pared back some of their emergency stimulus programs.  The Fed continues to make it abundantly clear that rates are likely to remain unchanged for some time.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥89.60 level and was capped around the ¥90.85 level.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the September diffusion-based leading index fall back to 80.0 from 81.8 in August while the coincident index rallied to 94.4 from 90.0.  On a composite basis, the leading index rallied to 86.4 and the coincident index improved to 92.5.  These data suggest the Japanese economy is improving.  Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi reported the central bank believes the economy “will keep picking up at a moderate pace” and added “the chance that the economy will have a second dip is small.”  Minutes from the Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting from 13-14 October were released yesterday in which policymakers noted they’d work to make sure investors realize the removal of some emergency stimuli program does not mean official interest rates will rise.  The minutes noted the central bank plans to “maintain the accommodative financial environment.” BoJ Governor Shirakawa yesterday reported it is “unlikely that the decline in prices will induce downward pressure on economic activity.”  Vice finance minister Minezaki called on the government and central bank to discuss the real economic threat of deflation.  The central bank and government remain at odds over the removal of monetary accommodation.   Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa this week continued to talk up Japan’s economy, saying “given that the emerging and commodity-exporting economies are likely to continue growing at high rates, risks have been becoming balanced, compared with a situation in early spring when risks were generally tilted downside.”  On interest rates, Shirakawa added “The Bank of Japan declared an end to the state of emergency, but it will stand pat until the economy returns to normal. The bank will probably continue its super-low rate policy through early 2011.”  BoJ’s Policy Board last week predicted core consumer prices will decline 1.5% in the year ending March 2010, decline 0.8% in the fiscal year ending March 2011, and decline 0.4% in the fiscal year ending March 2012.  The central bank last week reported it will stop its purchase of corporate debt and commercial paper at the end of 2009.  BoJ Policy Board’s next interest rate decision is scheduled for 19 November.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.74% to close at ¥9,789.35.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥133.20 level and was capped around the ¥135.15 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥148.40 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥88.15 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar weakened vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8194 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8196.  People’s Bank of China official Jiao yesterday reported new bank loans growth may accelerate in November and December.  PBoC official Guo reported the central bank will keep liquidity “reasonably abundant.”  Traders continue to anticipate the yuan will appreciate and this has resulted in large sales of U.S. dollars by Chinese banks to the central bank, resulting in a scarcity of dollars.  In fact, six-month dollar funding costs have tripled over the past two months.

Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Adam Hewison – “Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) will spend up to $1.2 billion to buy back about 21 million of its shares, or 3.6% of its total shares outstanding. The buyback will start Nov. 9 and last for up to one year.”

That was the headline news today on Research in Motion symbol RIMM so I decided to look at the chart to see what was going on in the “real world”. When I got to the chart, one thing immediately jumped out at me and that was the negative action that this market has shown in the past several weeks. Looking at this market a little closer I was able to see that our “Trade Triangle” technology was 100% negative and that our monthly “Trade Triangle” indicator had turned negative on October 28th at $63.38. This is a major negative in my mind for this market.

In this short video I show you exactly what we expect to see for RIMM in the future. I also share with you some downside targets that we are looking at which may surprise you.

Watch the New Video For Free Here…

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I hope you enjoy the video and comment about it on our blog.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls employment report for October came in worse than expected and the unemployment rate bumped up to a 26-year high.  The Department of Labor nonfarm payrolls report showed that U.S. payrolls shed 190,000 jobs in October, surpassing market forecasts expecting an approximately 175,000 jobs lost and marking the twenty-second straight month that companies have shed workers. September’s employment decline was revised from the original report of 263,000 jobs lost down to a 216,000 decline. The unemployment rate moved up from 9.8 percent in September to 10.2 percent last month and leveled the rate at its highest standing since June 1983.

The decline in jobs was spread throughout most economic sectors with the exceptions of the education & health services sector which saw 45,000 jobs created and the professional & business services sector which added 18,000 jobs. The goods-producing sector was the hardest hit by job losses for the month as this sector lost 129,000 total jobs with the manufacturing sector cutting 61,000 jobs and the construction sector losing 62,000 jobs. The service-providing sector lost 61,000 jobs total with retail trade cutting 40,000 workers and leisure & hospitality shedding 37,000 workers for the month. Government hiring was flat for the month.

US Dollar is mixed in forex trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been mostly lower today in forex trading against the other major currencies but following the government jobs report we have started to see a bit of a pullback and some dollar strength. Overall at 10:35 am in the US trading session, the dollar has gained versus the British pound and Canadian dollar while falling versus the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen. Against the euro and Swiss franc, the dollar is currently trading about unchanged from today’s opening exchange rates.

The US stock markets, meanwhile, have dipped into negative territory this morning with the Dow Jones falling by over 30 points, the Nasdaq decreasing over 5 points and the S&P 500 declining by over 3 points at the time of writing.  Oil has traded lower to under $79 per barrel while gold has advanced by around $9.00 to trading around the $1097.00 per ounce level.

USD/JPY Chart – The US Dollar falling sharply today versus the Japanese Yen in forex trading action today.

By Adam Hewison – A Quick Update on the Crude Oil Market

I was just looking at the charts and they are beginning to look very, very bullish. The formation I show you in today’s video is a classic continuation pattern to the upside. This pattern also confirms a Fibonacci target number we are looking at.

This video is short and to the point and I think it will get you thinking about this energy market.

Watch the New Crude Video Here…

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. After you watch the movie, please feel free to comment on blog.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

By Yan Peters – Just before the Non-Farm Payrolls publication the USD/TRY breaks a very strong support level, and aims to drop to the 1.4750 level and even the 1.4650 level. read below for more information.

• The chart below is the USD/TRY 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• The technical indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, the Slow Stochastic, the MACD/OsMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• A negative slope of the Slow Stochastic indicates that the downtrend has a lot of momentum. This indicates that the trend is likely to continue.
• The MACD is proceeding with its freefall, and has dropped below the 0.0 line. For as long that the MACD continues to slide, the pair is likely to drop as well.
• The RSI is providing mixed results at the moment. Although the RSI remains at the over-sold zone, it has recently pointed up. If the RSI will reach above the 30 line, it should be a warning for a trend reversal.
• As can be seen on the chart, the pair has breached through the 1.4820 support level. It is now on its way to the next support level, located at the 1.4750 price. If the pair will manage to cross this level again, it has the potential to reach the 1.4650 level, which is the strongest support level at the moment.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report. This indicator always produces extreme market volatility in the major currency pairs. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following this vital announcement at 13:30 GMT.

Economic News

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change on Tap

The Dollar was little changed against most of its major counterparts during yesterday’s trading session, a day ahead of a key government jobs report that will shed light on the health of the U.S. economy. By yesterday’s close, the USD fell slightly against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.4873. The Dollar experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6604. The USD did see some bullishness as well as it gained over 50 points against the JPY and closed at 90.67.

The greenback fell in the prior session after the Federal Reserve kept Interest Rates at record lows and signaled they were likely to stay there for some time to come. It also lost more ground on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded an optimistic note about a 2010 recovery and hinted at a slow-motion exit strategy for some emergency stimulus measures.

Another leading indicator released yesterday was U.S. Unemployment Claims. This number handedly beat last week’s result, but failed to provide strength to the Dollar as investors await key data to be released today, in order to implement their trading strategies.

Today’s Non- Farm Employment Change release is expected to have a strong impact on the U.S currency. Any result could be a surprise, and the Dollar could go either way as a result. In any case, traders are unsure how the market will react to today’s data. A weak report could feed risk aversion, boost Treasuries and actually aid the U.S Dollar. Then again, a better than expected result might be seen as a sign of relative U.S. economic strength, and lift the Dollar. Or it could also encourage risk-taking and aid commodities and higher-yielding currencies at the Dollar’s expense.

EUR – EUR Rises on ECB President Trichet’s Comments

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the Japanese Yen during yesterday trading session, to trade above 1.3495 amid a broad sell-off in the JPY. The European currency finished around 100 pips higher against the CHF to finish yesterday’s trading session at the 151.15 level.

The EUR got a boost after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet presented an optimistic tone on Euro-Zone growth, saying the economy will recover next year.

Both the ECB and the Bank of England left Interest Rates unchanged on Thursday. The decisions came after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held borrowing costs near zero percent, and kept its commitment to low rates for an extended period.

Looking ahead to today, the most important financial indicator scheduled to be released from Europe is the German Factory Orders. Analysts are forecasting this figure to slightly decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to bolster the EUR in the short-term.

JPY – JPY Free Fall Continues

The Japanese Yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against most of its currency crosses. The JPY fell against the EUR and closed at 1.3495, while the GBP/JPY cross rose to around 155.50.

The JPY’s trends will be affected by the rallies of its primary currency pairs today. It seems that the USD and EUR are expected to continue a volatile trading session today, especially against the Japanese currency. Traders should keep a close look on the news coming from the U.S. and Europe as these economies will be the deciding factors in the JPY’s movement today, especially the Non- Farm Employment Change at 13:30 GMT. It is also advisable for traders to follow any unexpected comments coming from key Japanese governmental figures, as this is also likely to lead to further JPY volatility.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Stabilizes Near $80 a Barrel

Oil fell to below $80 a barrel on Thursday, as doubts about a recovery in Oil demand outweighed positive economic signals. Oil dropped to an intra-day low of $79.30 a barrel before rebounding to the settlement level of 79.90, which was little changed compared with the previous session.

As for today, traders should pay close attention to the U.S Non- Farm Employment Change report, as it has tended to have a large impact on Crude Oil’s prices recently, especially for the short-term.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair is currently going through a 2-day winning streak, and it currently stands at the 1.4875 level. The RSI of the 4-hour chart shows the cross floating in the overbought territory, signaling that a downward correction is imminent. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD cross has gone up by about 250 pips since Tuesday and this trend may continue, as the pair continues to rise higher on the chart 1-hour Bollinger bands. However, the MACD of the 4-hpour chart indicates that the cross has run out of steam, and that a bearish correction is imminent. Going short at an early stage seems to be the right choice for Friday’s trading.

USD/JPY

The technical indicators for this pair seem to be showing misleading signals. On the one hand, the RSI of the weekly chart shows the pair sitting in the oversold territory. On the other hand, the recent cross above the 80 mark on the Slow Stochastic of the 4-hour chart indicates that a bearish correction may be imminent. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer seems to be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF cross has been range trading between the 1.0125 and 1.0265 levels over the past week. The MACD of the weekly mark supports a downward move for today. Going short with tight stops could bring you big returns today, as this week’s trading comes to and end.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Crude Oil has gone dramatically higher in the past week, and currently stands at the $80.12 mark. The recent bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic of the weekly chart indicates that a bearish correction is imminent today. Entering the pair when the downward breach occurs may turn out to pay off for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

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