Author: FX_Trdr

Market Movers of the Day

Asia-Pacific

*Australian Unemployment Rate at 5.5% in line with market expectations

*Australian Employment Change better than expected at 24.5K

Europe

*ECB Monthly Report

*EU Industrial Production in September better than estimated at -12.9%

*Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations down to 56.4 from 65.0 the previous month

*ECB Trichet’s speech

Americas

*Canadian New Housing Price Index better than forecasted at 0.5%

*US Initial Jobless Claims better than expected at 502K

*US Continuing Jobless Claims better than expected at 5631K

*US EIA Crude Oil Stocks report showed stockpiles unexpectedly gained 1.8M

*US Treasury’s Geithner speech

The Overall Sentiment

Equities

US stock markets closed on the negative side dragged down by losses from energy companies as Crude Oil took a hit after the EIA weekly report showed an unexpected growth in oil stockpiles. The S&P 500 sank 1% after reaching a 13-month high yesterday and the Dow Jones slid 0.9%. In Europe the sentiment was mixed with dissimilar fortune for the main indices. In the UK equities climbed for a second day pushing the FTSE 100 up 0.2% while in Germany shares declined for a second day pulling the DAX down 0.1%. Japanese Nikkei 225 lost 0.6% led by energy and mining companies after the drop in oil and metal prices.

Forex

The Dollar strengthened against most majors amid declarations from US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit about the importance of a strong Dollar in maintaining global stability. In spite of rather positive data coming from the ECB Monthly Report and the Euro-zone Industrial Production, EUR/USD steeply dropped ending the day around the 1.4850 area. With no further UK data releases for the rest of the week the Pound traded sideways against the greenback around the 1.6550 level ultimately gaining modestly to close slightly below 1.66.  Winds of change may be starting to blow for the Canadian dollar which despite Canada’s positive housing figures was the biggest loser of the day against its US counterpart. USD/CAD rallied strongly closing around the 1.0550 level. The Aussie dollar hit a 15-month high as the Australian Employment Change came stronger than expected but suffered a sharp retreat as commodities declined to close around 0.9250. The Yen lost ground against the greenback but remained in range against most majors as many investors await statements from the APEC Summit in the course of US president Obama’s first visit to Asia.

Commodities

Crude Oil fell below $77 after the weekly EIA report showed stockpiles unexpectedly gained 1.8 million barrels. Gold traded above $1122 hitting a new record before dropping strongly as the Dollar strengthened to close slightly above $1105. Silver fell as well but remained within the $17.10-$17.75 range developed in the last sessions.

The Day Ahead

The day will start with Japanese Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence figures where in both cases analysts predict a negative outcome. Moving to Europe, third-quarter GDP figures will be released for Germany and the Euro-zone. Markets anticipate encouraging figures which could revive the bulls igniting a EUR/USD rally. In the US session, Canada’s International Merchandise Trade and the US Trade Balance are due for release at 13:30 GMT making it a very sensitive hour for USD/CAD. The day will close with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which will be closely followed as the holiday shopping season is approaching.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD DAILY

After another strong rally and a fresh 15-month high AUD/USD had its first declining session. Although its bullish intentions remain in place it seems it’s time for the Aussie dollar to blow up some steam before it continues to climb. It presents the opportunity to open a Short position to take advantage of a correction towards the overall ascending trend line.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By CountingPips.com

Weekly U.S. jobless claims declined more than expected in the week that ended on November 7th according to a release by the U.S. Labor Department today. New weekly jobless claims fell by 12,000 workers to a total of 502,000 unemployed workers. The previous week saw 514,000 in new unemployment claims. The decrease in claims surpassed economic forecasts that were predicting claims to number 510,000 for the week. The 4-week moving average of new claims decreased by 4,500 from the previous week to 519,750 unemployed workers.

Workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending October 31st fell by 139,000 to total 5,631,000 unemployed workers. This also surpassed economic forecasts that were expecting 5,700,000 continuing claims for the week. The four week moving average of continuing benefits claims decreased by 100,750 workers to total 5,790,750 workers seeking continued unemployment benefits.

US Dollar gains in Forex Trading today

The U.S. dollar has been stronger in forex trading today against the other major currencies after being under pressure most of the week. The dollar gained today versus the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar at 3:05 pm EST in the US trading session.

The U.S. stock markets have been negative at time of writing with the Dow Jones down by over 80 points, the Nasdaq falling by roughly 14 points and the S&P 500 down by approximately 10 points.  Oil has declined today by $2.34 to trading around the $76.95 mark while gold has also fallen by approximately $6.80 today to trade around the $1,108.00 level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart – The Euro falling versus the US Dollar today in Forex Trading from its upward hourly trajectory.  The Euro had gained versus the US Dollar most of this week  and touched as high as the 1.5048 level before retreating sharply today to the 1.4860 level.

Source: ForexYard

The U.S. Unemployment Claims is the primary publication today that is set to determine the level of the USD when it is released at 13:30 GMT. The other main releases that are set to dominate forex trading, especially for currencies such as the Dollar and EUR is the publication of the Industrial Production from the Euro-Zone at 10:00 GMT and Crude Oil Inventories at 16:00 GMT. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following these vital announcements.

Economic News

USD – Unemployment Claims Report on Tap – Will USD Weakness Continue?

The Dollar hit a 15-month low against major currencies on Wednesday on the view that U.S. Interest Rates will remain low well into next year, though it regained some ground after failing to push through key levels. By yesterday’s close, the USD fell slightly against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.5015. The Dollar went bullish against the AUD and closed at 0.9355. The USD also experienced similar behavior against the GBP as it jumped around 120 points and closed at 1.6595.

Many worry that the U.S. economy, however, will recovery slowly, and a bevy of Federal Reserve officials have bolstered that view this week, warning the recovery would be erratic and hinting that Interest Rates would remain low for some time. Low Interest Rates make the Dollar less attractive to investors than higher-yielding currencies, stocks and commodities.

As for today, much data is expected from the U.S. economy. Special attention should be given to the Crude Oil Inventories, which is expected to increase from the previous reading. Traders should pay close attention to this figure as it has a strong correlation with the value of the U.S. Dollar. Also today, the Unemployment Claims is scheduled and should also have an impact on the market, because if it delivers unfavorable figures that will validate a problematic U.S. economy, and the USD is likely to weaken as a result.

EUR – EUR Strengthens as GBP Sinks

The EUR strengthened against most of its major counterparts yesterday, continuing to prove that for the time being that this is the solid currency that traders can rely on to provide them with steady profits. The 16 nation currency extended gains versus the Yen on Wednesday, to trade at about 134.70 amid a broad sell-off in the JPY. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the USD and closed at 1.5015.

The Pound also fell broadly against the Dollar and EUR, after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mervyn King said weakness in the currency would help UK exporters and aid Britain’s recovery from recession. Earlier in the global session, BoE Governor King emphasized the need for the UK economy to rebalance away from imports to exports, and said that a weaker Pound would help achieve this.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the Euro-Zone is the Industrial Production at 10:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to be decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the EUR in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow the European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet’s speech at 19:00 GMT. This speech is very important as it is very likely to Impact the EUR volatility.

JPY – Yen Declines as Stock Market Rallies

The Japanese Yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against most of its currency crosses, as a rise in most Asian and European stock prices reduced demand for currencies perceived as safe havens. The JPY fell against the EUR and closed at 1.3470, while the USD/JPY cross rose to around 89.80.

In addition, Japan’s Core Machinery Orders, a key indicator that shows capital investment in the industrial sector, increased at a faster pace in September. Data released by the Cabinet Office showed that Core Machinery Orders rose a seasonally adjusted 10.5% in September, much faster than the 0.5% increase in the previous month, but it failed to provide strength to the Yen, as investors may be waiting for key data due to be released today to implement their trading strategies.

Crude Oil – Traders Await Crude Oil Inventories Report

Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that the world would consume more Crude Oil in 2010 than previously expected. OPEC revised its previous estimates for global Oil demand growth to 750,000 barrels per day, up 50,000 barrels a day from last month’s estimate.

For the past several months, the weak Dollar has helped keep Oil prices high despite a slump in American consumption. Crude Oil prices tend to rise when the Dollar weakens and makes Oil cheaper for investors holding stronger currencies like the EUR. With regards top today’s trading, traders should pay attention to the Crude Oil Inventories report, as it tends to have a large impact on Crude Oil’s prices, especially in the short-term.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The cross now stands at the 1.4995 level, and there is expected to be much volatility for the pair today. The RSI of the weekly chart shows that the pair floats in the overbought territory, and that a bearish correction seems imminent. The MACD of the weekly chart also indicates that a bearish move may be looming. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

GBP/USD

The pair experienced much bearish behavior yesterday, as it now stands at the 1.6561 mark. The pair is currently sinking lower down the weekly chart’s Bollinger Bands, signaling that further bearishness for the pair is expected today. Similar behavior is occurring on the Bollinger Bands of the 4-hour chart. Going short on the pair seems to be the popular choice for today.

USD/JPY

The pair is currently sitting in the oversold territory on the RSI of the weekly chart, indicating that a bullish move for today is imminent. We see that the cross is rapidly rising on the Bollinger Bands of the 1-hour chart, which also supports the bullish move for today. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off in today’s trading.

USD/CHF

The Slow Stochastic of the daily chart shows that a bullish cross has recently formed, indicating that an upward move for the pair for today is imminent. Also, the pair is currently rising higher through the Bollinger Bands of the weekly chart. It seems that going long on the pair as the trading get underway may turn out to bring big profits in the coming hours.

The Wild Card – Gold

Gold has experienced much volatility today, as it now stands at the $1120 mark. The RSI of the daily chart shows that the commodity is floating in the overbought territory, signaling that a bearish move may be underway for Gold today. Additionally, there seems to be a recent bearish cross that occurred on the Slow Stochastic of the daily chart. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Europe

UK Jobless claims change at 12.9K better than expected

UK Claimant count rate in line with expectations at 5.1%

UK ILO Unemployment at 7.8% Vs 8% expected

UK Average earnings (excluding bonus) at 1.8%

The Overall Sentiment

A day loaded with UK data ended with the Sterling sharply lower trading under 1.66$ and above 0.90£ against the Euro. Economic indicators were generally in line with expectations and even slightly better with unemployment at 7.8% against an expected 8% and the claimant count rate (counting people seeking work) was 5.1% as expected. The BoE even updated upwards its growth and inflation forecast for the near term. But the comment from Governor Marvin King than he does not rule out QE expansion in the future alongside comments from BoE official that a weak pound is positive for UK exports outlined that not only BoE officials still see downside risk for the economy but that the BoE actually feels comfortable with a weaker Pound. Investors reacted to the news by hammering the currency and pushing it under its weekly lows. Although sentiment for the Sterling was negative the overall risk to haven equation was rather balanced with the Dollar ending the day flat trading around 1.5 to the Euro and rebounding to 89.8¥ from its day lows against the Japanese Yen.

For CAD Outlook Click here

Equities

Sentiment in Wall street was rather positive effected by three major factors the Fed’s statement outlining once again that rates will remain low for some time, better than expected data from China but most importantly better than expected earnings coming from market movers including HP the world largest PC maker, Toll Brothers the real estate company. HP beat forecasts and upgraded its future forecasts and Toll Brothers reported strong results which pushed the share more than 16% higher. At the day’s end the NASDAQ was up by 0.74% and S&P by a modest 0.5%.

Commodities

Sentiment for Gold continued to be strongly bullish with the yellow metal continuing to surge well above the 1100 mark reaching to the 1020$ zone as investors continue to look for a hedge against Dollar weakness, Oil also gained but modestly and traded slightly higher than 79$.

The Day Ahead

Weak inflation figures coming from Japan before the opening of the trade with domestic corporate goods down -6.7% YoY could hamper bets on the Yen with the Japanese deflation problem taping once again. Sentiment for the Aussie could be rather positive as the better than expected unemployment data increased substantially bets the RBA will raise rates once again. In The EU the Industrial production due will shed some light on the effects the strong euro has on the regions industry but the ECB monthly report will gather most attention as market players still try to figure when the ECB will start worrying about inflation. In the US the combination of the Initial Jobless claims due and the anticipated earnings release of Wal-Mart the world’s largest retailer is expected to effect on sentiment in Wall Street but also on the Dollar-Risk play in the Forex space. The concluding events will be the Speeches coming from Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner and ECB chairman Jean Claude Trichet which always gather attention.

Technical Analysis

Gold/USD, Hourly

Bearish scenario– After failing to break the 1120-1125 zone the pair will modestly retreat to the lower Fibonacci support levels to regain momentum

Target A– 1110

Target B-1104

Bullish Scenario– A break of the 1120 would push the pair to look for a new record which according to the latest trends is around 10 to 15 Dollars above

Target: 1135

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Adam Hewison – After hitting our first upside target of $1,110 two days ago, gold prices backed off but still managed to close at their best levels today for a new record high close in New York basis the spot gold.

The question now is, what’s going to happen to gold after it hit our first target level?

The main trend continues to be positive and I believe that any pullback in this market should be met with good support. It is possible that we could see a pullback of $20-$25 which would not change the overall positive trend of the market which we see continuing until the end of the year.

As readers of this blog know, we have an upside target zone of $1,250-$1,300 an ounce for gold. While that target zone is still in place, we believe that the huge “energy field” that we’ve discussed in our earlier gold videos is capable of pushing this market higher.

In this new video I explain some of the areas that I’m looking at and also some of the places where you can place tight stops to lock in profits.

Watch the New Gold Video Here…

As always the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to hear your views on gold in our Trader’s Blog comment section.
All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

The following article was adapted from the November 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and reprinted with permission here. Until Nov. 11, you can read the rest of this brand-new report for free, during Elliott Wave International’s FreeWeek of U.S. forecasts. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the rest of this report and others for free here.

By Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall

When Wall Street’s total value of assets rose to a “mind-boggling 36.6 percent of GDP” in late 2006, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published a chart of U.S. financial assets literally rising off the page.

The Financial Forecast observed that financial engineers had “found a new object of investor affections—themselves” and asserted that “the financial industry’s position so close to the center of the mania can mean only one thing; it is only a matter of time” before a massive reversal grabbed hold. Financial indexes hit their all-time peak within a matter of weeks, in February. The major stock indexes joined the topping process in October 2007 and in December 2007 the economy followed. Subscribers will recall that one of the most important clues to the unfolding disaster was the level of financial exuberance relative to the fundamental economic performance.

This chart of the value of U.S. trading volume (courtesy of Alan Newman at www.cross-currents.net) reveals that the imbalance is far from corrected.

Incredibly, total dollar trading volume is even higher now than it was in 2007 when the economy was humming along. In June 2008, dollar trading volume also defied an initial thrust lower in stocks and the economy, eliciting this comment from the Financial Forecast:

The chart of dollar trading relative to GDP shows how much more willing investors are to trade shares in companies that operate in an economic environment that is anemic compared to that of the mid-1960s. A basic implication of the Wave Principle is that the public will always show up at the end of a rally, just in time to get clobbered. This chart shows that it is happening in a big, big way now because the market is at the precipice of the biggest decline in a long, long time.

Total dollar volume continues to rise despite further fundamental financial deterioration. Yes, GDP experienced a one-quarter, clunker-aided uptick of 3.5 percent in the third quarter. But the economy is in far worse shape than it was when we made the above statement. In fact, its recent performance on top of the decades-long economic underperformance (which is discussed extensively in Chapter 1 and Appendix E of the new edition of Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash) means that industrial production just experienced its worst decade since 1930-1939. Total manufacturing employment slipped to 11.7 million people, its lowest level since May 1941 when it was 33 percent of all jobs. According to Bianco Research, manufacturing now accounts for only about 9 percent of the workforce. Finance anchors the economy now, which makes it far more susceptible to non-rational dynamics.

As Prechter and Parker explain in “The Financial/Economic Dichotomy” (May 2007, Journal of Behavioral Finance), a financial system is not bound by the laws of supply and demand in the same way that an industrial economy is. In finance, confidence and fear rule decisions. “In the financial context,” say Prechter and Parker, “knowing what you think is not enough; you have to try to guess what everyone else will think.”

We do know one thing: When everyone is thinking the same, the opposite will happen.

Right now, record high dollar volume of trading shows that confidence, at least on this basis, has reached a new historic extreme.

…

Read the rest of the 10-page November 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast now, when you signup for Elliott Wave International’s FreeWeek of U.S. forecasts. FreeWeek ends Nov. 11, so please act now to get an enormous wealth of current market analysis and forecasts — for free. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the rest of this report and others for free here.

Source: ForexYard

The U.S Dollar bounced off a 15-month low yesterday and the EUR dipped below $1.50 as investors paused to assess whether the global outlook justifies a recent rally in higher-yielding currencies and assets. The British Pound in particular struggled on Tuesday after Fitch ratings agency told Reuters that Britain was the major economy most at risk of losing its top AAA credit rating.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Recovers modestly off 15-mth Lows

The U.S Dollar edged up on Tuesday, reversing some of its recent losses but staying close to a 15-month low against a currency basket, as concerns over the UK’s sovereign rating prompted some demand for the safe haven of the U.S. unit.

The Dollar may extend its advance from a 15-month low against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners on speculation waning demand for riskier assets will force investors to exit bets against the greenback. The USD gained 0.1% to $1.4980 per EUR yesterday. It touched $1.4626 on Nov. 3, the strongest level in almost a month.

Analysts said investors lacked any catalyst to take the U.S Dollar much lower after its recent sharp falls, but added that the trend towards Dollar weakness remained in place.
Expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay near zero well into next year have encouraged investors to use the U.S Dollar to fund carry trades in higher-yielding assets, particularly when equity markets rally.

EUR – The Euro Rises vs. Pound on Stocks

The EUR advanced against the British Pound as European stocks rebounded and Fitch Ratings said the U.K.’s credit rating is most at risk among top-rated nations. The EUR traded at 89.86 U.K. pence, from 89.49 pence yesterday. The single European currency, which fell against the Yen and the U.S Dollar after a report showed German investor confidence declined in November by more than economists estimated, erased losses as stocks rise.

The GBP dropped against all but one of the 16 major currencies, after a warning on the UK from ratings agency Fitch. The currency sold off sharply during the European session after David Riley, Fitch Ratings’ co-head of global sovereign ratings, said in an interview Tuesday that the U.K. has the highest risk of major economies of losing its AAA status.

The Sterling slipped as far as $1.67 well below a 3 month high of $1.6844 reached on Monday. Despite the Pound’s recent strength, and also the relatively positive rate decision, the British economy is still in trouble, and the bearish sentiment may hold on.

JPY – Yen Extends Gains vs. U.S Dollar

The Japanese Yen gained broadly after the orders for Japanese machinery report rose more than twice the pace economists estimated, signaling that a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy may be sustained. The Yen climbed to 89.61 per Dollar from 89.76 before the report was published, building on the currency’s 7% advance in the past three months.

Reports today showed the recovery in China, Japan’s largest market, is gathering steam providing more support for the Yen. Also figuring in the foreign-exchange action, Japan’s current-account surplus unexpectedly rose 0.2% in September compared to the same month last year, government data showed.

Crude Oil – Oil Trades near $79 After Falling on Stockpiles

Crude Oil prices briefly traded above $80 a barrel Tuesday, but turned lower as U.S. stocks fell and the Dollar strengthened, pressuring Dollar denominated Oil prices. Oil sank further in late trading, slipping below $79 a barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. Crude Oil stocks rose more than anticipated.

Oil declined 0.5% yesterday after the American Petroleum Institute said Crude inventories increased 1.22 million barrels last week to 337.5 million. The U.S. government will report supply figures tomorrow. The weekly EIA inventory report will be released a day late on Thursday due to the U.S. Veteran’s Day holiday.

Technical News

EUR/USD

A bearish cross is evident on the daily Slow Stochastic, as well as the 4 hour MACD with the pair’s RSI floating in neutral territory. Going short on the day with tight stops may be advised.

GBP/USD

The pair is currently range trading with most indicators floating in neutral territory. The daily chart, however, shows a fresh bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic with the RSI floating in the over bought territory. Going short with tight stops may be advised for the day.

USD/JPY

A fresh bullish cross is evident on the hourly and 2 hour Slow Stochastic. A breach of the lower Bollinger Band is evident on the 2 hour chart. Furthermore, the RSI is floating in the oversold territory on the hourly and 4 hour charts. Going long on the day may be a good choice.

USD/CHF

A fresh bullish cross is forming on the hourly and 4 hour MACD. A bullish cross is also evident on the daily Slow Stochastic. Going long for today might be a good strategy.

The Wild Card – USD/MXN

After it recent bearish streak a correction may be imminent. A fresh bullish cross is evident on the hourly and 2 hour Slow Stochastic with the RSI floating in the oversold territory on the hourly and 4 hour charts. Forex traders have an opportunity to take advantage of the impending correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Asia

Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment came out worse than expected at -2.5%

New Zealands IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism fell to 47.90

Europe

Germany’s CPI figure came out as expected at 0.1%

France and Italy’s industrial production fell by -1.5 and -5.3%, respectively

Englands DCLG House Price Index showed minor improvement and came out at -4.1%

Americas

ABC/Wahsington Post Consumer Confidence came out worse than expected at -46.00

Equities

It was a quiet day on Wall Street yesterday as the major indices bounced back and forth across their opening market.  Even though the indices received a boost at the start of the session, backed by Monday’s extreme intraday rally, they quickly lost their steam going forward. Furthermore, minor strength from the Dollar yesterday, sent stocks back to their starting mark as investors remained cautious going forward.

From a technical point of view, one must note that even though the Dow Jones has now broken its prior high, the S&P500 and Nasdaq are still trading around their previous peaks. The Dow finished the session with a gain of 0.2%, while the S&P closed in negative territory, with a loss of 0.14%.

According to the monthly blue chip survey, economists are still optimistic and reckon that the U.S economy is now on a healthy path back to economic growth. According to the survey the economic growth should increase by 2.7%, but unemployment will drag along and decrease at a very slow rate. Approximately 52% of the economists speculated that unemployment will decrease to 7%, only in 2013.

Financials lagged for most of the session, but failed to present a major drop due to AIG. According to Bloomberg, Moody’s said that the insurer will be able to repay most, or all of Treasury’s investment, if the financial markets continue to show stability.

The lagging sector of the day was the Industrial sector, finishing with a loss of -0.58%

Forex

On the Forex market, the Dollar index presented relative gains and closed the session just under the 75 mark. Even though most of the currency pairs finished the day with a minor change, the intraday session was a volatile one.

The GBP/USD dropped after forming a breakout on Monday, but regained its strength throughout the second half of the day. The dramatic move came after an official from Fitch Ratings stated that the U.K could be the first major economy to lose its AAA status. Even though recent economic data in England are showing a slight improvement, recent actions by the BOE shows that the U.K is still in dire straits. One must note that at the BOE’s last rate decision, officials decided to pump further Pounds into the system to further help the economy. If the labor conditions in the U.K don’t start to improve along with healthy economic growth, the Pound could lose its appealing status as a “risk appetite” currency.

From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD is now trading above its recent break out of $1.6667. Even though this pair is showing minor weakness, a move higher could send this pair to its prior false- break high of $1.7.

EUR/USD and the AUD/USD both held on to relative strength as the day progressed. The AUD/USD caught most investor’s attention as the pair finished the session around $0.9327. Similar to the equity market the AUD/USD is trading around its prior high. When taking a glance the chart below one can see that this pair is trading around a critical level, especially as a drop could turn this pattern into a double top scenario. A break above current levels will confirm the continuation of the trend. One must note that the RSI is currently showing negative divergence.

Ahead

Similar to yesterday’s trading day, the U.S won’t be releasing any major market moving data. During morning hours, most of the data will come from England, releasing their unemployment rate and BOE inflation report, among others. During U.S hours New Zealand and Australia will both be releasing results including unemployment figures and Retail Sales. All unemployment numbers are expected to rise with the U.K expected to release an 8% figure and Australia expected to come out with a number of 5.8%.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Fast Brokers – Gold has retraced to $1100/oz following yesterday’s break above as investors snap up the Dollar in reaction to overbought conditions and disappointing econ data points from both Britain and the EU.  Meanwhile, the S&P futures are staring at their own psychological 1100 level along with previous 2009 highs.  Therefore, today’s consolidation appears healthy thus far as investors take a breather in anticipation of tonight’s wave of econ data from China.  China will release Industrial Production, CPI, CPI, and Fixed Asset Investments.  Investors will likely be paying particularly close attention to China’s econ data since the nation’s economy has been an engine in the global recovery.  An outperformance in China’s data could give the risk trades a nice boost, whereas a cool down could result in further Dollar strength.  Therefore, strong econ data out of China could help gold separate itself from $1100/oz despite today’s retracement.  On the other hand, disappointing China data could lead investors to close out some risk trades as well as take profits in gold.

Technically speaking, we’re still unable to place any sort of reliable downtrend line on gold due to a lack of historical perspective.  Therefore, gold’s key barrier to further topside gains appears to rest in the hands of the psychological $1100/oz level.  As for the downside, gold several uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 11/06 lows.  Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on the EUR/USD’s battle with 1.50.  Gold has been strongly correlated with the EUR/USD.  Therefore, any significant breakout in the currency pair could help drive gold higher.

Present Price: $1101.85/oz

Resistances: $1105.32/oz, $1108.20/oz, $1110.59/oz

Supports: $1100.97/oz, $1097.65/oz, $1094.78/oz, $1091.43/oz, $1087.59/oz

Psychological: $1100/oz, $1075/oz.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Robert Folsom – The following text is courtesy of Elliott Wave International. Until Nov. 11, EWI is allowing non-subscribers to download their latest market analysis and forecasts for free, including Robert Prechter’s latest Elliott Wave Theorist and Steve Hochberg’s and Pete Kendall’s latest Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Learn more about FreeWeek, and download your free reports here.
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By Robert Folsom, Senior Writer for Elliott Wave International

As you read and look at this page, please know that the chart is the star of the show. My description will add only a few details.

The chart published less than two weeks ago in Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. The rectangular box is plain to see: It envelopes the huge S&P 500 rally that began last March — a gain of 61.5% and 430 points, as of Oct. 18.

But there’s a two-part truth to the rally — and that is what the box really shows.

Part one shows the “wall of worry” — basically March through August. That’s when the media and experts were overwhelmingly negative about stocks. They were surprised by the rally. Remember?

Part two shows the more recent time of “euphoria” — basically September and October. The media and experts turned positive. The market was all about “green shoots” and “recovery.”

You see when most of the rally unfolded. Six months of serious worry produces a 373-point climb, whereas “two months of euphoria produces only 57 S&P points.”

Now, the two-part truth about this rally is an easy story to tell. It’s literally a few lines and notations on a price chart. Yet have you seen or read ANYTHING like this in the past two weeks? Has anyone else pointed out that over the past two months, the stock market “rally” has in fact slowed to a crawl?

As you looked at the chart, perhaps you noticed that the decline, which began in 2007, and in turn the recent rally, are both on a similarly large scale. The full version of this chart shows how important that “similarity of scale” really is (Elliott labels were excluded in consideration of Theorist subscribers).

Price action in the stock market this week has only strengthened the analysis in Bob Prechter’s October Theorist issue.

What’s more, you can read the very latest forecasts in the just-published November issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast — both publications (plus the tri-weekly Short Term Update) are yours for free — only during FreeWeek (now through Nov. 11).

Learn more about FreeWeek, and download the November Theorist for more about the above chart.