Author: FX_Trdr

Market Movers of the Day

Asia-Pacific

*New Zealand Trade Balance worse than expected at -487M

*Japanese Jobless Rate Better than forecasted at 5.1%

*Japanese Tokyo CPI slightly below expectations at –2.2%

*Japanese National CPI worse than estimated at -2.5%

*Japan’s Overall Household Spending better than expected at 1.6%

Europe

*German CPI beats market’s expectations at 0.3%

*UK CBI Retail Sales Index better than expected at 13

Americas

*US – Thanksgiving Day

The Overall Sentiment

Equities

Markets tend to stay calm when Wall Street is closed for holidays but that wasn’t the case this Thursday. Stock markets plummeted around the world on worrying news about Dubai’s state investment company, Dubai World, which is believed to have debts of nearly $60 billion and has asked its creditors to postpone their payment dates. This has led to fears about a possible debt default infecting the global financial system. In Asia, China’s Shanghai index lost 3.6%, its biggest one-day drop since Aug. 31, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 declined 2%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 3.18% while Germany’s DAX lost 3.25% and France’s CAC-40 plunged 3.4%.

Read more about Dubai’s debt affecting the markets

Forex

A big wave of risk aversion triggered by the news about Dubai’s debt flooded the markets with investors looking for shelter in the Dollar and the Yen. The EUR/USD retreated from yesterday’s high falling back below 1.50. Losses on Gold and Crude Oil spurred a huge sell-off in commodity-linked currencies. Canada’s dollar lost the most in four weeks against the greenback sending the USD/CAD back above 1.06. Investors moved away from riskier currencies making the crosses on the Yen the biggest losers of the day. The Pound dropped from above 1.67 to under 1.6450 against its US counterpart. The Yen climbed to a 14-year high versus the Dollar sending the USD/JPY to an intraday low underneath 85 but quickly pulling back to remain in the 86 area.

Commodities

Gold dropped from a new record as news about Dubai’s debt hit the markets strengthening the Dollar. The yellow metal rose as high as $1195 in early trading hours retreating to an intraday low of $1180 to finally settle around $1186. Crude Oil lost around a dollar and a half but managed to remain above $76.

The Day Ahead

A thin stream of data will close the week in a Friday with no US economic releases. During the European session a reading of 0.4% is expected for Germany’s Import Price Index, up from -0.9% in October, and positive figures are forecasted for EU’s Consumer and Economic Confidence adding to signs of belief in economic improvement. Swiss KOF Leading Indicator is expected to climb to 1.80 from 1.45 the previous month. Canada’s Current Account for the third quarter will be the only report coming from the Americas.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD DAILY

After topping slightly above 0.76 NZD/USD slipped below the overall bullish trend line that has shown the way for around eight months. The pair came back up with some bullish momentum to test the trend in an attempt to set new highs. Failing to do so, NZD/USD encountered the trend line acting now as a resistance signaling that the market was up for a bearish move. The pair currently trades around 0.71 and while the 0.70 level might offer some struggle a break below it could trigger further declines.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Nial Fuller – Success in the markets is a result of a mastery of self-control and discipline. This is the exact reason why so few people excel at trading and why most give up after losing most or all of the money in their trading account. A simple one or two day lack of discipline can start a chain of emotional mistakes that has the power to erase much of the progress you have made in the markets. Some traders maintain discipline and self-control for years only to find themselves unintentionally losing their discipline in the markets. Any trader who has a year or two of live trading experience under their belt will attest to the fact that you can lose money in the markets in the blink of an eye while it seemingly is much more difficult to make it.

Trading is essentially a game of risk management. The traders who make it to professional status are the ones who understand that protecting their money from their own emotional weakness is the key to long-term profitability. Many people have the opposite mindset when they first start trading; they are very unaware of the risks they are facing and as a result of how easy trading seems on the surface they risk way too much and then the snow-ball effect of mistakes begins. Once you master your own emotions you are well on the way to becoming a profitable trader.Mastering one’s emotions means consciously controlling how you respond to situations. In the forex markets this means constantly monitoring your reactions to the market. You have to stop and ask yourself after every trade you make if what you are feeling is conducive to your trading plan or is a result of emotion. Often after a good trade we fear the market less than we should and want to jump back in and make more money, this is emotional trading and usually leads to a loss. This subsequent loss will offset the positive feeling you just had from your winning trade and will probably cause you to try and make back what you just lost. You can see where this is going. It is a vicious cycle and unless you are consciously aware of it and the fact that you might be kicking it off at anytime while interacting with the market you aren’t going to last long.

Generally a mastery of the market will be evident in other areas of your life. The mind set that it takes to consistently profit from trading is the same one that will lead you to accomplish other long-term difficult goals. Persistence and discipline in the face of pressure and constant emotional temptation makes for well rounded people and for well rounded traders. If you are getting a thrill out of your trading activities than you are not doing something right. Trading should not be that exciting. You should know what you are going to do before you do it so that there are no surprises. If you plan out how you will react to a market situation before it happens than you will not react emotionally if it does happen. This will prevent you from starting down the very slippery slope of emotional trading.

About the Author

Check Out Nial Fuller’s Price Action Forex Training Website here –Learn Forex Trading.

First of all I want to thank you for having me as a guest today!

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Source: ForexYard

The Dollar slid against its major currency counterparts following a rally in global equity markets. The rally prompted investors to turn to higher yielding riskier assets and away from the USD. With recent market optimism, traders may continue to see a small downward trend in the U.S. Dollar as its positions are unwound in exchange for higher yielding assets.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Falls to a 15 Month Low

The dollar dropped to a 15-month low against most of its major currency pairs yesterday, as generally upbeat U.S. economic data and gains in world stocks eroded the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. By yesterday’s close, the dollar fell 1.4% against the JPY to 87.35, it’s lowest since January. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the EUR and closed at around 1.5130.

U.S. data pointed to stabilization in the labor, consumer and housing sectors of the economy, boosting risk appetite and driving higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar higher. Also weighing on the dollar were minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting released on Tuesday, which described the greenback’s recent decline as “orderly” and affirmed expectations U.S. interest rates will remain low well into 2010.

Today is the Thanksgiving holiday in U.S. and there are no major economic data releases on the calendar today. However, Europe and Japan appear to be releasing the bulk of today’s news, which means we may see a day of trading with low liquidity and therefore increased volatility. Day-traders can take advantage of these intense trading days by swinging within the larger-than-normal price fluctuations.

EUR – EUR Gains as Stock Market Rallies

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the dollar during yesterday trading session, to trade above 1.5130 amid a broad sell-off in the USD. The European currency finished around 60 pips higher against the GBP to finish yesterday’s trading session at the 0.9060 level.

The EUR was affected by the global stock market rally and the bearish Dollar. The U.S. stock market rally led investors to buy-back into the EUR, as they looked for returns on buying commodity-linked and higher-yielding currencies in Wednesday’s trading.

Sentiment in the Euro-Zone economy has brightened in the past week following better-than-expected news. The EUR is showing signs of resilience even though there was volatility throughout non-Euro crosses. It will be crucial for traders to identify how the preceding economic indicators from the U.S., Japanese, and other key economies will affect their positions.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from Euro-Zone is German Prelim CPI. Analysts are forecasting this figure to slightly decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a better than expected result may continue to boost the EUR in today’s trading.

JPY – Yen Rises against the Majors

The Japanese Yen strengthened against most of its major counterparts yesterday, continuing to prove that for the time being that this is the solid currency that traders can rely on to provide them with steady profits. The Yen extended gains versus the Dollar on Wednesday, to trade at about 87.25. The JPY also saw bullishness against the GBP and closed at 145.80. Further strengthening could be seen in the Yen if other nations begin to raise interest rates in order to ward off inflation. This could potentially wreak havoc on the Japanese economy by making Japanese exports relatively more expensive when compared to their foreign counterparts. The yen has gained around 14% against the dollar in the past year, hurting earnings for export-dependent Japanese companies.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Rises on Weak Dollar

Crude oil rose today as the dollar dropped to a 15-month low against the EUR and a government report showed that U.S. fuel demand gained for a second week. Oil increased about 2.6% after the greenback retreated on the Federal Reserve’s signal that it will tolerate a weaker currency.
Expectations that consumers may once again want more oil when the recession bottoms have partly fueled the rally, with traders watching the stock market for economic telltales. There is a reasonable chance that oil prices will continue to be bullish going into next week, providing that the economic situation of the leading economies continues to rapidly improve.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair has shown much bullish behavior in the last few days, however the technical data shows that this may soon be corrected. The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart indicates that the pair is veering into overbought territory, meaning a bearish reversal could happen. Going short in trading today may be the best bet.

GBP/USD

The RSI on the daily chart indicates that the pair is fluctuating in neutral territory. If the pair should break the 1.6700 mark, traders can expect a bearish correction in the near future. Going short may be a safe move for today.

USD/JPY

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past two days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse soon. For example, the 4-hour chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the daily chart’s RSI. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

USD/CHF

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4-hour Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the near future. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.

The Wild Card – Gold

With gold recording strong bullish movements in recent days, the technical analysis indicates that this may soon be corrected. The RSI on the daily chart indicates that the commodity has been overbought for some time, indicating that a bearish reversal may be imminent. Forex traders may want to go short today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Europe

UK GDP falls –0.3% QoQ as expected

UK Index of services down –0.1%

German Gfk Consumer confidence at 3.7 slightly disappointing

Americas

US Durable goods orders fall -0.6% in Oct

US Initial Jobless claims at 466k Vs 500K expected

US Personal consumption expenditures rise 0.7% MoM

US Core personal consumption expenditure rise 0.2% MoM

US Personal consumption deflator at 0.2% MoM

US Personal income rise 0.2%

US New Home Sales strong rising 6.2% MoM

US Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment at 67.4 largely in line with expectations

EIA Crude oil stocks change at 1M ,lower than expected

The Overall Sentiment

Forex

The broad Dollar selloff which started around May this year and seemed to trim itself into range only days ago has finally broken key resistance levels and pushed the Dollar into record lows across the board. The rally was fed mainly by better than expected US economic data with Initial Jobless claims falling under the 500K mark for the first time in more than a year reading 466K which positively surprising investors which were expecting a 500K reading according to various pulls. In addition new home sales which is considered to be closely linked with economic recovery rose strongly by 6.2% MoM mainly attributed to led tax breaks for new home buyers. The combination of the better than expected economic data and the statements coming from the Fed that it is currently not worried by the Dollar “orderly” decline spurred massive outflows from the Dollar and into high yielding assets and currencies alike ,with  counter Dollar carry trades continuing to mount. The Dollar fell to as low as 1.515$ per Euro, the Swiss Franc moved beyond parity trading a few points shy of 0.99 CHF to the Dollar and the Yen surprised by moving above a 14 Year high against the Dollar trading below 87 this morning. The Sterling also gained rather strongly against the Dollar trading around 1.67$ as the UK GDP figure was largely in line with expectations. However the Sterling which is highly linked to appetite for risk which was elevated during the trade failed to reach new highs against the Greenback.

Equities

The better than expected economic data fueled positive sentiment for Equities. In Europe benchmark indices advanced with the DAX gaining around 0.5% and the FTSE higher by 0.77%.In the US gains were more modest with the S&P higher by 0.45% and the DOW higher by a modest 0.29% but most importantly both indices reached a record for the year. Among the best performers were Caterpillar and Home depot mainly in reaction to the strong homes sales rise.

Commodities

Heavy Dollar bids, remote rate expectations and moved the Gold to yet another historical record ever so close to the 1200$ mark reaching to as 1195 an ounce marking it as one of the best performing assets for the recent period. Silver also edged higher trading around 18.8$ an ounce but failed to surpass 19$ and in the Energy space oil gained as growth bets were on and EIA crude stocks were lower than expected. The black gold edged around 78$ a barrel just 2$ short of the 80$ mark.

The Day Ahead

The Japanese Yen is expected to be at the centre of attention as the day will be largely loaded with Japanese economic data. Highly important economic figures are due, such as the National CPI ex-fresh foods  the main index for inflation in Japan and Japanese unemployment which is expected to rise to 5.4%.The combination of inflation readings which pointed deflation  in the last reading alongside the growing debate between the BoJ and the Japanese government over handling deflation and the Yen which is at 13 Years high against the Dollar is expected to bring the Japanese currency to the centre of attention with potential volatility during the Asia session.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD, Daily

Bullish Scenario– A close above 1.0720 would signal the pair is moving to retest the bearish trend line around 1.08

Target -1.076

Bearish scenario– A break of 1.04 downwards would generate a bearish swing, targeting the 1.02 support and under.

Target A-1.02

Target B-1.012

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

Source: ForexYard

Dollar remained mainly within range against the EUR Tuesday, however, Dollar sentiment dampened after statements from the Federal Reserve saying they believe the economy is going to recover at a slow pace and that unemployment will remain high well into 2011.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Sentiment Pressured by Fed Comments

The USD held on to modest gains Tuesday as equities and commodities declined. However, pressure on Dollar sentiment came following the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The Federal Reserve said Tuesday that officials believe the economy is going to recover at a slow rate while unemployment will remain high. These statements affirmed expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates low for an extended period of time.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, was at 75.116, compared with 75.130 Monday; remaining fairly directionless and within recent ranges against most major counterparts. The Fed’s near 0% interest rates and monetary stimulus programs have weighed on the greenback this year, since the programs have effectively printed more Dollars and flooding the markets with extra currency.

Earlier in the day the USD received some support from disappointing U.S economic data. The U.S. economy’s recovery wasn’t as strong as earlier believed with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising at a 2.8% annual rate July through September after falling by 0.7% in the second quarter. This was a revision from a month ago, when the estimated was that GDP rose by an annual 3.5% in the third quarter. However, The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence Index improved to 49.5 in November from 48.7 in October, beating economists’ expectations.

Looking ahead to today, another full news day is expected from the U.S with the Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims due to be released at 13:00 GMT and the New Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

EUR – Pound Drops on Governor King’s Comments Regarding Economic State

The EUR was mainly higher against the Dollar Tuesday following a report suggesting that the U.S monetary stimulus program is likely to remain in place the longest among the countries which adapted similar programs. Furthermore, the German Ifo Institute’s November business climate index exceeded investors’ expectations. .

Late Tuesday, the EUR was at $1.4965, compared with $1.4968 late Monday and at ¥132.49, down from ¥133.22. The U.K. Pound was at $1.6586, down from $1.6615. The pound also fell against the EUR yesterday, trading at 90.25 pence per EUR after falling 0.2%, on speculation the U.K. Central Bank will extend its asset purchase program after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the U.K. economy faces “profound challenges”.

The release of U.K’s Revised GDP at 9:30 GMT today is expected to show a slight improvement, however, if results are worse then expected the GDP may exacerbate its downward trend.

JPY – Yen Gains against Most Major Currency Counterparts

Japan’s currency gained against 15 of its 16 major counterparts Tuesday, gaining broadly against the Dollar. Both the Yen and Dollar are popular funding currencies in carry trades in which these currencies are used by investors to buy equities and higher yielding currencies. As investors unwind these trades, the Yen tends to benefit against the greenback.

Japanese shipments abroad dropped 23.2% in October, compared with a 30.6% decline in September, beating economists’ expectations for a 26.8% decline. The renewed demand was fueled by demand from China and other emerging markets. Japan’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in the third quarter, with the expansion driven by gains from exports.

Oil – Crude Prices Drop to Lowest Level since Oct. 14

Crude Oil futures for January delivery fell nearly 2% Tuesday, settling at $76.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Oct. 14. Crude Oil fell to $75.73 a barrel in electronic trading late Tuesday, down 0.4% after the American Petroleum Institute said U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.4 million barrels last week. U.S. inventories had begun to level off earlier this quarter, but weak demand has prevented any significant reduction in the surplus. The outlook for recovery in demand was further marred when the U.S. Commerce Department cut third quarter GDP growth expectations for the quarter to 2.8% from an earlier estimate of 3.5%. The release of today’s Crude Oil Inventories from the Department of Energy at 15:30 GMT is also expect to show a rise in supplies, possibly putting further pressure on Oil prices

Technical News

EUR/USD

After yesterday’s upward movement, the price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the RSI of the hourly chart, signaling that there is still room for a downward correction. The recent bearish cross on the 30 min. chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this notion. Going short to ride out the remainder of the bearish correction may be a wise choice today.

GBP/USD

The Cable has resumed its bullish trend and is attempting to breach the 1.6650 level. Should the breach take place, the pair might further extend its bullish run, with a potential price target of 1.6725

USD/JPY

The price of this pair has been range-trading within a bearish channel since the beginning of the week and has yet to create a significant breach. Yesterday’s downward movement has put the price near the lower border of its current channel, however. If the price succeeds in breaching through, forex traders may see a strong bullish movement. If it fails to breach, the movement will correct downwards within its current channel. Traders may want to wait to see if the breach occurs before setting positions today.

USD/CHF

The pair has resumed its bullish activity for the past couple of days and is currently trading at the 1.0078 level. However, it failed to breach the 1.014 level and has provided mixed results ever since. If the pair will indeed breach the 1.016 level, a sharp bullish move might take place

The Wild Card – NZD/JPY

The pair is in the middle of a strong bearish move ever since it dropped below 64.80, and is now traded at 64.25. The pair continues its nonstop downward journey overlooking every possible support level and shows no sign of a stop. All oscillators on the daily chart are still bearish and the trend appears to have more room to run. Forex traders should note that being short on the pair appears to be a wise move for the day.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Europe

Germany’s ifo Business Climate index beat analyst’s expectations and came out at 93.90

England’s BBA Mortgage Approvals worse than expected at 42.20k

England’s Business investment better than expected at -3.0%

Americas

Revised GDP worse than expected at 2.8%

CB consumer confidence better than expected at 49.50

Daily Market Review Nov 25th

After Monday’s dramatic rally, the major indices eased their pace yesterday, closing the session in red. Even though a minor pull back was expected by most investors, many expressed concerns that the current equity rally is now running only on steam.  One must note that even though various sectors are now showing improvement, the employment situation is still weighing on investor’s thoughts and on the economic situation.

According to a recent statement from the Fed, consumer consumption is picking up, but the economy should witness a slow recovery, due to the high level of unemployment. The Fed also mentioned that without further stimulus from the government, the U.S could find it hard to recover to a normal and healthy situation. According to yesterday’s revised economic data the U.S expanded by 2.8%, a number which was under analyst’s expectations of 2.9% and lower than the previous figure of 3.5%.

President Obama also expressed his concerns yesterday, stating that even though the economy could require further stimulus, additional debt could lead to a drop in confidence which could lead to a double dip recession.

From a technical point of view the major U.S stock indices finished the session around recent high levels. The S&P500 closed with a -0.05% loss, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.31%

Forex

On the Forex market the Dollar index continued to present relative weakness, as the equity market presented a lackluster session. Throughout the session the Dollar dropped to below 75 points and closed around prior support.

Over in Europe, France and Germany both presented better than expected data. Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index jumped to 93.90, beating analyst’s expectations of 91.90. France’s consumer spending surprised for the better, showing that the change in the total expenditure by consumers had increased in the month of November by 0.5%.

The data helped to spark buying on Euro crosses and sent the EUR/USD to higher levels. Even though the EUR/USD is now showing signs of a possible break out, one must take into consideration resistance at $1.5071.

Over in the U.K, the data was mixed as BBA Mortgage Approvals increased by only 42.20k, while Business investment contracted by less than expected at -3%. The GBP/USD managed to find stability throughout the session and climbed higher to close just under its opening price. The GBP is now gaining strength during early morning hours.

The Day Ahead

On the data front, the U.K will take the stage first today, releasing its revised GDP figure. The number is expected to show a contraction of -0.3%. Moving on, the U.S will release a wave of data which include their Durable Goods orders, initial jobless claim, personal spending, income and new home sales. Although most of the data is expected to show an improving situation the data could surprise and cause volatility during the intraday session.

One must note that the initial jobless claims will be scrutinized by investor’s, especially due to the employment situation in the U.S.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Adam Hewison – Here is the fastest and easiest way to tell the trend in the foreign exchange markets.

In today’s video I’m going to share with you a wonderful way to look at the forex markets and determine which way they are headed in a matter of seconds. We’ll be looking at three different cross rates and how they all correlate together in a way that I think may surprise you.

The forex markets are the biggest markets in the world and MarketClub not only covers all of them, but also covers them in real-time with pricing and charts. I hope you learn from this video and take the time to post your comments on our blog.

Watch the New Forex Video Here…

As always there is no charge and no registration to watch this educational trading video.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

By Fast Brokers – Gold is consolidating along our 3rd tier uptrend line as the S&P futures bobble around 1100 and the EUR/USD fluctuates between trend lines.  The reaction to today’s U.S. GDP and Consumer Confidence releases have been relatively quiet thus far, implying that activity may be winding down in advance to the Thanksgiving holiday.  Gold has responded by holding onto yesterday’s impressive gains towards $1170/oz on the heels of more dovish comments from Fed officials.  That being said, the Fed will release its Meeting Minutes this afternoon PST.  If the Fed’s minutes further support extending loose monetary policies, then it will be interesting to see whether the gold responds with another surge higher as investors and central banks divest from the Dollar.  Meanwhile, investors will receive some key U.S. and EU data points tomorrow, meaning the markets could experience a slight jolt of activity before Thanksgiving Day.  Therefore, investors should continue to eye the EUR/USD’s present interaction with our trend lines and its highly psychological 1.50 level since the currency pair is normally positively correlated with gold.

Technically speaking, we’re unable to place any notable topside barriers or downtrend lines on our chart due to the lack of historical perspective.  Therefore, the psychological $1175/oz and $1200/oz levels appear to be the only topside technicals at work for the time being.  As for the downside, we continue to move our multiple uptrend lines higher while 11/20 lows and the psychological $1150/oz level serve as technical cushions.

Present Price: $1167.20/oz

Resistances: $1170.16/oz, $1173.02/oz

Supports: $1163.85/oz, $1160.69/oz, $1152.65/oz, $1150.09/oz, $1139.50/oz, $1132.01/oz

Psychological: $1175/oz, $1200/oz, $1050/oz

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY has undergone a sizable pullback after consolidating the past few sessions.  America’s weaker than expected GDP data is leading investors to prefer the Yen over the Dollar as a safe haven, thereby sending the USD/JPY tumbling towards October lows.  Meanwhile Finance Minister Fujii reiterated his concern surrounding the impact of deflationary pressures on Japan’s economy.  However, the BoJ does have autonomous power, and it remains to be seen whether Fujii carries enough clout to persuade the central bank to add more liquidity measures to the system.  Meanwhile, investors should actively monitor the USD/JPY’s interaction with our 1st tier uptrend line since it runs through October lows.  A retracement below our 1st tier may not only imply a retest of 88, but possibly a wave of more extensive near-term losses.  On the other hand, should October lows be tested and give way, the BoJ may be inclined to buoy the USD/JPY through the use of psychological and/or fundamental monetary forces.

Japan will enter the data wires again tonight EST with the release of its Trade Balance.  Japan’s Trade Balance data was disappointing in its previous release, so it will be interesting to see whether Japan maintains a trade surplus this time around.  A dip back into a trade deficit would likely imply weak demand from the West since China’s econ data continues to outperform.  In addition to Japan’s Trade Balance data, the U.S. will release Durable Goods Orders, New Homes Sales, and Unemployment Claims tomorrow.  The DGO and Unemployment Claims releases could have a moderate impact on the USD/JPY since the numbers give investors a better idea of the current state of U.S. consumption, and consequently demand for Japanese goods.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY has our 1st tier uptrend line and October lows serving as technical cushions.  As for the topside, the currency pair faces multiple downtrend lines along with 11/23 and 11/18 highs.  Additionally, the USD/JPY must deal with its psychological 90 level and longer-term downtrend pressures before mounting a credible comeback.  Hence, many topside obstacles remain.

Present Price: 88.43

Resistances: 88.46, 88.61, 88.85, 89.06, 89.17, 89.42

Supports: 88.30, 88.18, 88.01, 87.86, 87.66

Psychological: 90 and October Lows

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

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