Author: FX_Trdr

By CountingPips.com

U.S. Retail Sales increased by more than expected as consumers spending on retail good continued for the second straight month in November according to a report by the U.S. Commerce Department released today. Advance estimates of retail sales showed that sales increased by 1.3 percent to $332.1 billion in November and easily surpassed market forecasts that were expecting a 0.6 percent increase for the month. October’s results were revised lower from an original estimate of a 1.4 percent gain to an increase of 1.1 percent.

On an annual basis, November sales were 1.9 percent above the November 2008 sales level following October’s annual decline of 2.0 percent. Core retail sales, excluding automobile sales and parts, increased by 1.2 percent in November after the revised data showed that core sales were flat in October.

Boosting the retail sales numbers in November were a 6.0 percent gain in gas station sales and a 2.8 percent increase in electronics & appliance stores. Also contributing to the increase in retail sales were gains in food services & drinking places, nonstore retailers, automobile sales, general merchandise stores, health & personal care stores and building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers.

US Dollar makes strong gains in Forex Trading today.

Today’s forex trading action has seen strong US dollar gains against the major currencies as the positive retail sales data have helped give the American currency a boost. The dollar has gained ground versus the euro, British pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Japanese yen at 12:32 pm EST according currency data by Oanda.

The US stock markets, meanwhile, have been mixed so far today with the Dow Jones gaining by over 30 points, the Nasdaq decreasing over 5 points and the S&P 500 showing a small gain.  Oil has traded lower to $70.01 while gold has also fallen to the $1117.60 per ounce level.

USD/CAD Chart – The US Dollar breaking sharply out of its downtrend today versus the Canadian Dollar in Forex Trading on the 30 minute chart.

By Ashley Smith – The Australian Dollar rose to 91.71 U.S cents following the biggest three month surge in Australian employment in three years. Employers added 99,500 workers in the three months to Nov. 30, pushing down the jobless rate to 5.7%. It seems that increased demand for Australian commodities from China is fueling this surge in employment.

This data was beneficial to the AUD as it provides further support to the assumption that RBA Governor Stevens will resume the round of interest rate increases early next year. December saw an unprecedented 3rd consecutive interest rate hike to 3.75%. This has greatly benefited the AUD, making it one of the best performing currencies against the greenback. With strong recovery prospects boosted by expectations.

The Australian Dollar rose to 91.71 U.S cents following the biggest three month surge in Australian employment in three years. Employers added 99,500 workers in the three months to Nov. 30, pushing down the jobless rate to 5.7%. It seems that increased demand for Australian commodities from China is fueling this surge in employment. This data was beneficial to the AUD as it provides further support to the assumption that RBA Governor Stevens will resume the round of interest rate increases early next year.

December saw an unprecedented 3rd consecutive interest rate hike to 3.75%. This has greatly benefited the AUD, making it one of the best performing currencies against the greenback. With strong recovery prospects boosted by expectations of further interest rate increases, the AUD should continue making gains versus the lower yielding USD and JPY.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The EUR continues its decline against the Dollar on concerns the credit ratings of more European nations will be lowered. Spain had the outlook on its debt grade cut to “negative” from “stable”. Greece’s credit ranking was reduced one step to BBB+ and Portugal’s outlook was revised to “negative” from “stable”.

Economic News

USD – USD Mixed Against Major Currencies

The Dollar experienced a mixed trading day yesterday, advancing on the Yen but staying little changed against the EUR and U.K. pound. The dollar rose above 76 earlier and lately bought 75.996 and compared to 75.987 on Wednesday. The USD dropped as much as 1.3% versus the New Zealand while the Australian Dollar rose 1.1% against the greenback.

The number of people in the U.S. receiving unemployment insurance continues to decline, dropping to the lowest level since February. The US trade Deficit also declined unexpectedly as a weak Dollar boosted exports oversees.

Looking ahead for today, the US Retail Sales is expected to be released at 13:30 GMT and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment at 14:55 GMT. With mostly better than expected economic data seen lately from the U.S., worse than expected results might prove quite volatile for the USD pairs.

EUR – EUR under Pressure over Ratings Concerns

The EUR was under pressure Thursday over concerns of high debt levels of some of its member countries. Greece had its rating downgraded and Spain had its outlook lowered to negative. Portugal was also warned of a possible downgrade. Late Thursday the EUR was unchanged at $1.4730 and at 129.94 Yen from 129.41 Yen. The Pound was at $1.6274 from $1.6270.

The currency posted little reaction to Thursday’s decision by the Bank of England to leave its key lending rate unchanged at a record low 0.5%. The Bank of England also maintained its asset-buying program at 200 billion pounds ($326 billion), in line with the economists’ forecasts.

While positive economic data continues to come from Germany, Euro-Zone’s largest economy concerns about sovereign ratings in the Euro-Zone’s smaller countries and the potential for choppy economic growth seem to be putting downward pressure on the EUR at the moment, possibly pushing it even lower against the USD.

JPY – Yen Declines as Risk Appetite Returns

As the stream of positive economic data from the U.S continues, the Yen continues to decline against the Dollar as well as riskier currencies as demand for higher-yielding assets returns. The Yen traded at 129.97 per EUR in today’s early trading, after weakening 0.4% yesterday and was at 88.43 against the Dollar. With a return to risk appetite, the JPY returns to be the primary funding currency.

OIL – Oil Prices Decline for 7th Day

Crude levels declined for a seventh straight day, ending at a two month low Thursday as concerns of oversupply and low demand persist. Light, sweet Crude Oil for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down 13 cents at $70.54, the lowest level since Oct. 7th.

With renewed attention to supply and demand, confidence that demand in the world’s biggest energy-consuming country is recovering is deteriorating. With gasoline supplies at the highest level since April and a stronger Dollar, investors’ appetite for commodities continues to decline. With few fundamentals supporting high Oil prices, there is room for Oil level to decline further.

Technical News

EUR/USD

There is a fresh bullish cross forming on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. The upward direction on the hourly chart’s Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy

GBP/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 1 hour Chart’s RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The pair’s bullish momentum continues with full steam, as it crossed the 88.80 level yesterday, and seems ready to test the 89.25 level. Should a breach occur, another bullish move might take place.

USD/CHF

The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. Both the RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. The hourlies are also providing mixed signals with no specific direction. Good strategy might be to wait for a clearer signal before entering the market in this pair.

The Wild Card – Silver

Silver prices are testing new lows on a daily basis now as a breach through $17.75 was made yesterday. The daily chart shows that the price has lowered beneath the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the downtrend has more room to go. This could give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very promising trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Rita Ruvinski – The European currency rose against the Japanese yen Friday as strong Chinese economic data fueled optimism about the global economic recovery, to the detriment of the safe-haven, low-yielding Japanese currency. EUR climbed to intraday high of 130.73 yen; after data showed Chinese industrial production rose 19.2% from a year earlier in November.

Against the U.S dollar the EUR headed for a 2nd weekly decline, the longest stretch in 2 months, on speculation the credit ratings of more European nations will be lowered. The Euro-Zone currency continued to struggle as markets fretted about the weaker links in the European economy, including Greece and Spain. Fitch dropped the credit rating this week below the single-A bracket for the first time in 10 years while Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s outlook to negative.

The British pound, which has been under pressure from concern about Britain’s fiscal position, gained 0.2% o $1.6313 and climbed 1% to 145.20 Yen. While the U.K. is lagging the Euro-Zone and U.S. in exiting the recession, reports are showing signs of a recovery. U.K. consumer confidence stayed close to the highest level in 1 1/2 years in November according to Nationwide Building Society.

Still, the GBP remains in a weakening trend and is still very much vulnerable. The U.K currency slipped already 0.1% against the Dollar and dropped 1.9% the common European currency in November as the U.K. stayed mired in the recession in the 3rd quarter. In addition to the ongoing recession, the heavy deficit and a possible expansion of the QE program, may hurt the Pound some more. The stronger U.S dollar that was seen this week doesn’t help the Pound either.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Asia-Pacific

*Australian Consumer Inflation expectation higher than expected at 3.6%

*Australian Unemployment Rate lower than expected at 5.7%

Europe

*Swiss National Bank left interest rates at 0.25%

*Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.50%

Americas

*Canada’s International Trade Balance surprised for the better at 0.4B

*US Trade Balance better than expected at -$32.90B

*US Initial Jobless Claims slightly below expectations at 474K

*US Continuing Jobless Claims better than estimated at 5157K

The Overall Sentiment

Equities

US stock markets advanced in response to positive economic reports that showed the US Trade Deficit narrowing 7.6% in October as the Dollar’s weakness spurred exports to its highest level in a year. Initial Jobless Claims slightly rose but Continuing Claims dropped more than forecasted driving stocks to the positive side. The S&P added 0.6% and the Dow gained 0.7%. European main indices advanced after three losing sessions as major banks and financial institutions bounced back since EU finance official Jean-Claude Juncker ruled out a bankruptcy of the Greek state adding that no EU assistance to Greece would be required. The British FTSE 100 gained 0.8% and the German DAX Index added 1.1%.

Forex

The Dollar declined against commodity-linked currencies but ended virtually unchanged versus its European counterparts as these showed little reaction to the economic events of the day. EUR/USD traded sideways consolidating around 1.4725. The Swiss National Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25% and stated it will stop bond purchases as a first measure to an exit strategy but will continue to intervene to prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. This policy has kept EUR/CHF on a short leash for several months. Sterling was little changed against the Euro as the Bank of England left interest rates at 0.50% and also kept its Quantitative Easing plan unchanged at 200 billion pound. EUR/GBP remains slightly above 0.90. The New Zealand dollar continued to rise after RBNZ’s hawkish tone yesterday. The Aussie dollar strengthened as the Australian unemployment rate dropped to 5.7%. The Canadian dollar advanced as Canada’s Trade Balance showed a surplus as a result of increased exports of energy and metals. The Yen was the worst performer weakening against the majors at early hours and trading sideways for the rest of the day as investors try to assess the direction of Japan’s economy amid troubling recent data and continuous rumors about potential intervention of the BoJ in the Forex market.

Commodities

Precious metals were little changed as the Dollar remained in a tight range. Gold hovered around $1128 and Silver ended slightly above $17.30. Crude Oil visited briefly below $70 but recuperated to close around $70.50.

The Day Ahead

The day will start early in Japan with the Consumer Confidence figures for November and the UK PPI numbers will follow to shed some light on inflationary prospects for the British economy.  In the US, Retail Sales will be closely watched by traders to perceive if the strong Nonfarm report from last week reflected on consumer spending headed for the holiday season. The New Housing Price Index is due for release in Canada and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment in the US will close the week in which a rise to 68.6 is expected from 67.4 the previous month.

Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY DAILY

EUR/JPY has found support in the 127-129 strip for several months. Notice how the 129 level is the first line of defense and, in case it is breached, the cross immediately bounces off the 127 support to trade back above 129. EUR/JPY has recently touched the 129 line, rebounding right up. It could be an opportunity to open a Long position, counting on the supports to hold once again and taking into consideration the possibility of a dip below 129, with the chance for the more daring traders to reinforce the position.

Daily Forex Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY is recovering rather well from yesterday’s lows as the currency pair benefits from an improvement in the risk trade.  The USD/JPY is moving back towards Wednesday highs as investors await tomorrow’s key data releases from China and the U.S.   China will print a set of key data during tomorrow’s Asia trading session, including Industrial Production and Trade Balance figures.  Continual improvement in China’s economic performance could give a much needed boost to the risk trade.  Yen investors will be paying particularly close attention to China’s data since it is Japan’s top trading partner. Afterwards, investors will be honing in on U.S. Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment data.  Since U.S. employment data took a turn for the better last Friday, investors will be watching to see if the uptick in employment resulted in greater consumption.  However, it will be interesting to see what impact tomorrow’s U.S. econ data has on the Dollar should it print positively.  Last Friday the Greenback underwent a large wave of appreciation in reaction to the employment data as investors speculated that the Fed may raise rates sooner than expected.  Therefore, investors should monitor the Dollar’s reaction to tomorrow’s data releases carefully.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY is still trading well below its highly psychological 90 level despite last Friday’s pop above.  Therefore, the currency pair still has its fair share of topside technicals to deal with before creating a more solid uptrend.  That being said, longer-term downtrend forces remain.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY is presently testing the patience of our 3rd and 4th tier uptrend lines along.  However, the USD/JPY does have additional technical cushions waiting nearby in the form of 11/25 and 12/01 lows.  Should conditions deteriorate further, the USD/JPY has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as supports along with November lows and the psychological 85 level.

Present Price: 88.33

Resistances: 88.33, 88.48, 88.67, 88.86, 89.12, 89.41

Supports: 88.07, 87.82, 87.66, 87.50, 87.32, 87.11

Psychological: 90, December Highs and Lows

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable is consolidating above our 2nd tier uptrend line after the BoE decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged as it monitors what impact the present QE package will have on overall economic performance.  Meanwhile, bulls are trying to keep the Cable’s head above water as the EUR/USD and gold undergo similar consolidative patterns.  Today’s bounce in the Cable hasn’t been too much to speak of thus far, indicating recent downward pressures are still intact.  That being said, volatility could pick up in the next 24-48 hours as investors await key data releases from China and the U.S.  China will print a set of data during the Asia trading session, including Industrial Production and Trade Balance figures.  Continual outperformance by China’s economy could deliver a much needed boost to the risk trade and help the Cable regain its footing.  Following China’s key data releases, Britain will print its PPI input data.  Pricing is an important factor for the BoE when it is deciding upon its monetary policy.  Hence, a pickup in PPI could encourage the BoE to keep its QE package as is in the future should prices recover.  During the U.S. session, America will release Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.  Both data points can move markets should they surprise on either side, so investors should remain alert.

Technically speaking, the Cable has dipped below key November lows and is presently testing our 2nd tier uptrend line.  Hence, a downward pressure remains on the Cable.  That being said, the currency pair does have our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with the psychological 1.60 area should it be tested.  As for the topside, the Cable faces multiple downtrend lines due to recent weakness.  Additionally, the Cable has 12/07 and 12/04 highs serving as technical barriers along with the psychological 1.65 level.

Present Price: 1.6245

Resistances: 1.6246, 1.6260, 1.6284, 1.6325, 1.6346, 1.6371

Supports: 1.6211, 1.6186, 1.6163, 1.6133, 1.6113, 1.6098

Psychological: 1.60, 1.65

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is continuing its balancing act along our 2nd tier uptrend line as bulls look to keep the currency pair above November lows.  Investor confidence has improved a bit today after Australia’s employment data topped analyst expectations.  Australia’s recovery has given investors renewed confidence in the risk trade, resulting weakness in both the Dollar and Yen.  The EUR/USD has benefitted from today’s development, and is attempting to build a new base after the selling pressure inflicted so far this month.  Meanwhile, the EU remains quiet on the data front, leaving the spotlight on tomorrow’s econ data releases from China and the U.S.  China will print a set of key data during tomorrow’s Asia trading session, including Industrial Production and Trade Balance figures.  Continual improvement in China’s economic performance could give a much needed boost to the risk trade, buoying the EUR/USD as a result. Afterwards, investors will be honing in on U.S. Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment data.  Since U.S. employment data took a turn for the better last Friday, investors will be watching to see if the uptick in employment resulted in greater consumption.  However, it will be interesting to see what impact tomorrow’s U.S. econ data has on the Dollar should it print positively.  Last Friday the Greenback underwent a large wave of appreciation in reaction to the employment data as investors speculated that the Fed may raise rates sooner than expected.  Therefore, investors should monitor the Dollar’s reaction to tomorrow’s data releases carefully.

Technically speaking, our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines may carry some weight since they run through September and August lows, respectfully.  Hence, if the EUR/USD doesn’t move higher from its developing base the currency pair could be in for another wave of near-term selling pressure.  That being said, the EUR/USD still does have our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with November lows.  Should conditions deteriorate, the EUR/USD could find solid support in the form of its psychological 1.45 area and October lows.  As for the topside, the EUR/USD is building near-term topside barriers as it weakens.  The EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with 12/07 highs and the psychological 1.50 level.  Therefore, it seems near-term topside technicals outweigh supports, meaning there remains a downward pressure on the EUR/USD.  As a result, investors should monitor the behavior of gold and the S&P futures as investors await Friday’s wave of economic data.

Present Price: 1.4724

Resistances: 1.4738, 1.4759, 1.4780, 1.4812, 1.4841

Supports: 1.4724, 1.4701, 1.4682, 1.4669, 1.4650, 1.4640, 1.4628

Psychological: 1.45, 1.50, November Lows

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By CountingPips.com

The United States trade deficit decreased more than expected as exports rose by 2.6 percent in October according to a release by the Commerce Department today. The U.S. trade deficit declined by 7.6 percent as the deficit registered $32.9 billion in October following a revised deficit of $35.7 billion in September. Market forecasts were expecting the deficit to rise to approximately $36.7 billion for the month.

The U.S. had a total of $136.8 billion worth of exports in October which was an increase of $3.5 billion over September’s total. October imports edged up just marginally with a total of $169.8 billion worth of imports for an increase of $0.7 billion over the September level. Also contributing to the lower trade deficit in October was a decrease in imports of petroleum products which declined by 10.0 percent for the month.

The U.S. trade deficit with China, despite the monthly fall, did edge up in October. The deficit with China increased to $22.7 billion in October from a deficit of $22.1 billion in September. Other notable U.S. trade deficits were with the European Union at a $4.9 billion, Japan at $4.4 billion, Mexico at $4.6 billion, OPEC at $5.8 billion and Canada at $2.0 billion.

U.S. trade surpluses with other countries for October included Australia at $1.3 billion, Hong Kong at $1.6 billion, Singapore at $0.9 billion and Egypt at $0.4 billion.

Weekly Jobless Claims rise.

A separate government release by the U.S. Labor Department showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims increased in the week that ended on December 5th. New jobless claims grew to a total of 474,000 unemployed workers, an increase over the prior week by 17,000 workers. A 4-week moving average of unemployed workers fell by 7,750 from the prior week to a total of 473,750.

Meanwhile, workers seeking continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 28th decreased by 303,000 workers to a total of 5,157,000 unemployed workers. A four week moving average of continuing claims dropped by 123,500.

US Dollar mixed in Forex Trading.

The U.S. dollar has been mixed in forex trading today against the other major currencies as the U.S. stock markets have been higher today. The dollar has gained slightly today versus the euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen and British pound while falling against the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar at 12:09 pm EST according to currency data by Oanda.

The U.S. stock markets have been positive so far today with the Dow Jones gaining by over 60 points, the Nasdaq increasing over 10 points and the S&P 500 up by over 5 points.  Oil edged down by $0.28 to $70.39 while gold gained $7.60 to trade at the $1,128.00 per ounce level.

NZD/USD Hourly Chart – The New Zealand dollar gaining today versus the US dollar in forex trading.  Today, the commodity currencies are gaining versus the USD after a steady decline over the last week and the NZD has pushed to trading back over the 0.7280 level.

By Adam Hewison – There’s no doubt about it, for the past four weeks the S&P 500 index has been trapped in a trading range.

In my new video I show you a key level to watch this week. If this level
is broken, it will be a game changer for this index.

As always our videos are free to view and there is no registration
requirement.

See the New Video Here.

Enjoy the video and let us know what you think on our blog.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub