Author: FX_Trdr

Consumer confidence highest in over five years in June. ECB official wants strict check of bank finances. UAE’s Emirates NBD names Stanchart’s Nelson as new CEO

Fed’s Fisher says comfortable with rise in U.S. yields. Scottie Pippen — Felony Assault Suspect After Alleged Knockout. Financial Crises May Call for Easier Monetary Policies: Fed’s Dudley

Yields on the 10-year note breached 2.6 percent for the first-time since August 2011, which are likely to influence borrowing costs for home loans, credit cards, and auto financing in the future. Conway G. Gittens reports.

South Africa’s president on Monday said a critically ill Nelson Mandela was “asleep” when he visited the 94-year-old in a hospital, and he urged the country to pray for Mandela. (June 24)

Financial instability should figure into policy-making. Futures down on China, Fed concerns. Tenet to Acquire Vanguard Health Systems for $1.8 Billion

Futures Slammed by Bond Spikes, Doubts About China. Britain’s Osborne reaches deal on spending cuts. Sprint’s Clearwire Acquisition: Who’s Going to Make What?

Kanye West Did Not Propose to Kim Kardashian…Yet. Central Banks Criticize Europe for Political Gridlock on Economy. Analysis: After the Fed shock, markets set for more turmoil

By CountingPips.com

The US dollar surged against the other major currencies in forex trading action last week as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments and outlook rocked the financial markets. Mr. Bernanke said the US Fed bond-buying program could possibly be scaled back in 2013 and likely to wrap up in 2014 if growth, employment and inflation data all continue to improve. The end of this program is seen as US dollar positive and helped the US dollar gain ground against all the other major currencies last week.

Looking forward to this week, the question will be whether last week’s US dollar strength will extend into this week and, perhaps, beyond.

Major Currency Pair Commentary:

EUR/USD: The euro fell against the US dollar for the first time in five weeks and dropped below the 1.3200 trading level last week. Looking forward to this week, it will be interesting to see whether follow through lower will see the EUR/USD back at the 1.3000 major support level. Further decline should test the 1.3100 level before we can have a go at the 1.3000 major support while upward momentum will likely run into the 1.3150 area of resistance before the more important 1.3200 resistance level is tested.

GBP/USD: British pound sterling lost ground to the dollar last week for the first time in four weeks and fell back under the 1.5500 price. The GBP/USD pair currently trades right near the 1.5100 support level which could quickly turn into key support or resistance for the week. A rebound in the GBP this week could see resistance into the 1.5600 area while further decline will likely test support area of 1.5360 — 1.5350 area and then potentially setting up a test of 1.5250 — 1.5220 area.

USD/JPY: The dollar jumped back against the the Japanese yen last week after a few weeks of sharp declines and large volatility. The USD/JPY closed over the 97.50 level to end the week and sets up a potential reunion with the major 100.00 level this week. Look for support areas at the 97.50 level with the 96.50 — 96.65 area looming as support below. Potential overhead resistance areas include 98.00 — 90.20 level and then the round number of the 99.00 level before the major 100.00. A breakout above this level would be a major bullish signal.

USD/CHF: The dollar rebounded against the franc last week after falling for four consecutive weeks. The USD/CHF currency pair trades right below the 0.9350 level currently. This level looks to be an important barometer early in the week as a breakout above this level will likely see further upward momentum for the US dollar. More bullish momentum for this pair will likely run into resistance at 0.9430 — 0.9450 and and then into the major 0.9500 level. Lower level support this week will come in at the 0.9250 level followed by the 0.9180 — 0.9200 area which provided a strong base for prices last week.

USD/CAD: The dollar surged higher last week against the Canadian dollar after two weeks of declines. The USD/CAD is poised to make a run at 1.0500 and whether we will finally see a sustained breakout of this currency pair’s wedge pattern to the topside. Upward momentum resistance is the major 1.0500 level while support below can be found at 1.0400 — 1.0420 area before the 1.0325 — 1.0300 area of previous support resistance comes into play.

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar continued its decline last week after a pause the previous week. The AUD/USD currently trades around the 0.9250 level for the first time since 2010. This pair looks poised to test the major 0.9000 level which could provide a base of support for this streaking downtrend. Any upward momentum may be capped into the previous resistance level of 0.9350 — 0.9365.

NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar also turned lower last week and trades right near the 0.7750 level which marks its lowest trading level in about a year. Overhead resistance for this pair comes in at 0.7815 — 0.7800 area. First line of support looks to be had at 0.7700 area and then the 0.7650 area before potential major support at the 0.7500 level.

This Week’s Economic Calendar highlights:

Tuesday, June 25

United States — durable goods report
United States — consumer confidence report
United States — new home sales

Wednesday, June 26

United Kingdom — Bank of England financial report
United States — GDP report
United States — personal consumption expenditure
New Zealand — trade balance

Thursday, June 27

Euro zone — Germany employment report
Japan — national consumer price index
United Kingdom — GDP report
euro zone — consumer confidence
United States — weekly jobless claims
United States — pending home sales

Friday, June 28

Euro zone — Germany consumer price index
Canada — GDP report
United States — University of Michigan survey

Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Technical Analysis

By CountingPips.com

The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders and speculators sharply scaled back their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week. This is the third straight weekly decrease for US dollar bets after USD long positions reached their highest level on record (Reuters data) on May 28th.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators,slashed their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $14.55 billion as of Tuesday June 18th. This was a decrease from a total long position of $28.28 Billion registered on June 11th, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the combined positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

What is the COT Report:

The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The individual currency speculator net positions showed advances for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc last week while the New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso had a declining number of net large trader contracts for the week.

Individual Currency Charts:

EuroFX:

EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro advanced sharply again last week and improved for a third consecutive week. Euro contracts increased to a total net position of +20,030 contracts in the data reported for June 18th following the previous week’s total of -7,533 net contracts on June 11th. This is the first time Euro contracts have been on the positive side since February 19th and are at the best level since February 12th when euro positions registered +24,181 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO

British Pound Sterling:

GBP:  British pound speculative positions improved sharply last week for a second consecutive week and leveled at the best position since February. British pound speculative positions advanced to a total of -20,406 net contracts on June 18th following a total of -53,687 net contracts reported for June 11th. The last two weeks of increases have pushed GBP net positions to their best level since February 12th when positions equaled -16,307 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

Japanese Yen:

JPY:  Japanese yen net speculative contracts gained last week for a third consecutive week after falling to the lowest overall position in 2013 on May 28th. Japanese yen positions improved to a total of -61,890 net contracts on June 18th following a total of -72,906 net short contracts on June 11th. This is the best level in net positions since February 12th when positions equaled -61,306 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

Swiss Franc:

CHF: Swiss franc large speculator positions surged last week and improved for a third consecutive week. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures rose to a total of +5,791 contracts on June 18th following a total of -20,738 net contracts reported for June 11th. Swiss franc net positions are now at their best level since January 22nd when positions equaled +6,384 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

Canadian Dollar:

CAD:  Canadian dollar positions improved last week for a second consecutive week and brought CAD positions to their best level since February 26th. Canadian dollar positions rose to a total of -26,087 contracts as of June 18th following a total of -35,907 net contracts that were reported for June 11th.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

Australian Dollar:

AUD:  Australian dollar large speculator positions decreased slightly last week and dropped for the 12th straight week. Aussie speculative futures positions fell to a total net amount of -63,521 contracts on June 18th after totaling -63,277 net contracts as of June 11th. This is the sixth week of bearish Aussie large spec contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

New Zealand Dollar:

NZD: New Zealand dollar large speculator bets decreased slightly last week and fell for a seventh consecutive week. NZD contracts declined lower to a total of +2,126 net long contracts as of June 18th following a total of +2,653 net long contracts on June 11th.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

Mexican Peso:

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts dropped sharply lower again last week and decreased for a fifth consecutive week. Peso positions fell lower to a total of +20,949 net speculative positions as of June 18th following a total of +63,774 contracts that were reported for June 11th. This is the lowest level for Mexican peso positions since July 3, 2012 when contracts equaled +17,475.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com

10 Year Treasuries: Large trader and speculator positions for 10-year treasury notes in the futures markets increased last week after declining the previous week. 10-year treasury contracts rose to a total net position of +31,229 contracts in the data reported for June 18th following the previous week’s total of -9,195 net contracts on June 11th. This was the highest level in 10-yr positions since May 7th when total net positions equaled +37,956 contracts.

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis