Author: FX_Trdr

By CountingPips.com

USD/CAD: The dollar fell sharply against the Canadian dollar last week after closing the previous two weeks above the 1.0500 price level. This week prices will open right just below the 1.0400 level and may find the major 1.0500 level as a resistance level. Near term support for the pair to start the week is 1.0325 — 1.0350 area with the 1.0250 area looking below as a support level. Bullish price action will likely run into resistance at this 1.0425 — 1.0450 level before the 1.0500 comes into play.

Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Technical Analysis

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission heads to trial against Fabrice Tourre, 34, a former Goldman Sachs bond trader. Legal experts say it is the highest-profile trial to date stemming from the SEC’s investigation of the events leading up to the 2008 crisis and presents a chance for the SEC to hold an individual responsible at trial.

By CountingPips.com

USD/CHF: The US dollar declined against the Swiss franc last week to fall under the 0.9500 price level after three straight weeks of increases. The USD/CHF currency pair currently trades around the 0.9455 level and looks to see 0.9500 major level as near-term resistance. Further downward action this week will likely run into support at 0.9400 area and then at the 0.9300 area and 0.9250 level. If price climbs above the 0.9500, there will likely see heavy resistance at the 0.9600 major level. The MACD indicator shows a neutral to slightly bullish signal.

Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Technical Analysis

By CountingPips.com

USD/JPY: The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen last week for the first time in four weeks. The US dollar/yen pair failed to hold above the major 100.00 threshold, indicating a near-term bearish outlook. Looking ahead to this week, the 100 level can be looked to provide resistance for this pair as there should be heavy selling pressure into this level. Potential support will likely be seen at the 98.50 — 98.85 area within 97.50 support shaping up below. If this pair rebounds back above 100, look for resistance at the 101.25 — 101.50 area that has been the top of price action for the past two weeks. The weekly MACD indicator is favoring a bearish trend.

Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Technical Analysis

By CountingPips.com

GBP/USD: The British pound also rebounded against the US dollar last week and closed back above the major 1.5000 price level. Looking forward to this week, the 1.5000 price level will look to provide near-term support for this pair while near-term resistance will likely show up around the 1.5150 — 1.5125 area. Look for further overhead resistance into the 1.5250 level. Notice the MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence in momentum compared to price action, a potential bullish indicator for the GBP.

Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Technical Analysis

By CountingPips.com

EUR/USD: The euro rebounded last week against the US dollar after the showing a decline for the previous three weeks. The euro/dollar currency pair closed the week above the major 1.3000 level at approximately 1.3065. This week the 1.3000 level will again be in focus and look to provide support for this pair. Further upward momentum this week could bring us a new test of the 1.3250 level. Look for overhead resistance at the 1.3125 — 1.3150 area before a test of 1.3250. On the downside, look out for major levels of 1.3000 and then 1.2850 — 1.2885 area as providing some major buying support. The weekly MACD indicator is showing a generally neutral bias.

Written by Zac Storella, CountingPips Forex Blog & Currency Pair Research

By CountingPips.com

The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders and currency speculators added to their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a second consecutive week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, raised their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $27.94 billion as of Tuesday July 9th. This was a rise from the total long position of $22.37 billion that was registered on July 2nd, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the combined positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

USD net long positions are at their highest level since June 11th when bullish positions equaled $28.28 billion, according to Reuters data calculations.

COT explanation: The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The large currency speculator net positions for each of the individual major currencies last week showed weekly increases for the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso while the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar all had a declining number of large speculator positions for the week.

Notable changes: Euro spec contracts fell for a third straight week and declined further on the short side to the lowest position since June 4th while the Australian dollar positions increased by over 7000 contracts last week, suggesting a short-term bottom may have been reached on July 2nd at -70,515 contracts.

Individual Currency Charts:

EuroFX:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

Japanese Yen:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

Swiss Franc:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

Canadian Dollar:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

Australian Dollar:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

New Zealand Dollar:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

Mexican Peso:

 Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

Spain’s economy minister Luis De Guindos said in an interview that he’s country economy will grow in the second half of the year but the government must implement reforms and cut the deficit – at the right pace – to keep the recovery going

Greece’s bank rescue fund has picked Eurobank to buy New Hellenic Postbank as part of consolidation in the sector and to meet a condition for the country’s next tranche of bailout aid.

Next week marks the first big week of second-quarter earnings, and it is sure to bring both joy and misery to Wall Street. Investors will concentrate on market fundamentals after weeks when Federal Reserve policies have dominated the market. If they see companies are still struggling, stocks could take a fall. Even after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke scared markets in June by telling investors the Fed is likely to reduce monetary stimulus in coming months, stocks have recovered, with both the Dow and S&P 500 climbing to all-time highs.