By CountingPips.com
Large Specs bullish bets stood at $18.32 billion before last week’s Fed meeting
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large futures traders and speculators slightly trimmed their bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a third straight week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $18.32 billion as of Tuesday December 17th, according to data calculations from Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.78 billion from the total $19.10 billion bullish position that was recorded on December 10th, according to the data from Reuters which is calculated by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The December 17th data is reported for the day before the US Federal Reserve meeting that saw the Fed reduce their bond-buying stimulus program. The “tapering” of the program provided a boost to the US dollar in forex market trading and will likely make next few COT reports interesting to see where large speculators are positioning post-Fed tapering.
Individual Currencies – Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The non-commercial net positions for each of the individual currencies directly against the US dollar saw a weekly increase for just the euro while there were weekly declines for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and the Australian dollar. See charts & data below.
Individual Currency Charts:
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX
| Date | Large Trader Net Positions | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | 16826 | -16317 |
| 11/19/2013 | 8911 | -7915 |
| 11/26/2013 | -431 | -9342 |
| 12/03/2013 | 9312 | 9743 |
| 12/10/2013 | 15930 | 6618 |
| 12/17/2013 | 27923 | 11993 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | -9303 | -6911 |
| 11/19/2013 | -1665 | 7638 |
| 11/26/2013 | 391 | 2056 |
| 12/03/2013 | 18369 | 17978 |
| 12/10/2013 | 18429 | 60 |
| 12/17/2013 | 17825 | -604 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | -95107 | -21315 |
| 11/19/2013 | -112216 | -17109 |
| 11/26/2013 | -123202 | -10986 |
| 12/03/2013 | -133383 | -10181 |
| 12/10/2013 | -129711 | 3672 |
| 12/17/2013 | -130223 | -512 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | 3189 | -4906 |
| 11/19/2013 | 3669 | 480 |
| 11/26/2013 | 4652 | 983 |
| 12/03/2013 | 6547 | 1895 |
| 12/10/2013 | 11998 | 5451 |
| 12/17/2013 | 11955 | -43 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | -16092 | 1910 |
| 11/19/2013 | -16335 | -243 |
| 11/26/2013 | -28780 | -12445 |
| 12/03/2013 | -41583 | -12803 |
| 12/10/2013 | -57514 | -15931 |
| 12/17/2013 | -65500 | -7986 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | -35809 | -10742 |
| 11/19/2013 | -35762 | 47 |
| 11/26/2013 | -33511 | 2251 |
| 12/03/2013 | -44311 | -10800 |
| 12/10/2013 | -45850 | -1539 |
| 12/17/2013 | -51653 | -5803 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | 10366 | 658 |
| 11/19/2013 | 12476 | 2110 |
| 11/26/2013 | 10249 | -2227 |
| 12/03/2013 | 7639 | -2610 |
| 12/10/2013 | 8553 | 914 |
| 12/17/2013 | 5673 | -2880 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Weekly Change |
| 11/12/2013 | 7017 | 1837 |
| 11/19/2013 | 9539 | 2522 |
| 11/26/2013 | 12463 | 2924 |
| 12/03/2013 | 8933 | -3530 |
| 12/10/2013 | 22530 | 13597 |
| 12/17/2013 | 15650 | -6880 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Analysis
