Month: July 2013

With more than $18 billion at stake in after Detroit claimed bankruptcy, the big law firms and other advisers are clamoring for a slice of the pie along with bondholders, insurers, retirees, accompanied in court by their lawyers. Detroit owes more than $8 billion in bond debt, and the insurers likely on the hook for those costs have already retained big-name law firms to take their cases.

According to Detroit’s emergency manager, the city must dig itself out of the financial hole it created and cannot wait to see if the federal government will come to its rescue

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew urged Greece to persevere with tough economic reforms during a one-day trip to Athens designed to demonstrate Washington’s support for the crisis-plagued country.

By CountingPips.com

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party wins control of both houses of parliament: Yen weakness to follow?

Last week saw the US dollar trade mostly lower against the other major currencies as US Federal Reserve Chairman’s semi-annual testimony failed to move the markets much in either direction. The dollar declined against all the other majors except the Japanese yen.

This week and especially at the open of the week, it will be important to watch the Japanese yen pairs and how they do in the forex market after the Japanese elections resulted in favor of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party. This election win gives Abe’s party control of both parliament houses and could have a weakening effect on the yen as Abe’s policies of monetary easing to fight deflation and increase inflation now have less obstacles in government. This could result in a big open this week for the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and many other yen currency pairs.

Other economic highlights coming up this week include the New Zealand interest rate decision on Wednesday, the US durable goods report on Thursday and manufacturing data on Wednesday from multiple countries. See more currency pair comments and economic event highlights below.

Major Currency Pair Commentary & Levels:

EUR/USD – The euro continued to climb against the US dollar for a second straight week last week. The EUR/USD bounced off the 1.3000 major level as the pair found buying support and ended the week at approximately 1.3138. The outlook for this week will be to see if the pair can continue its climb and test or overcome the 1.3250 exchange level. Near term support levels look to be at the 1.3100 round number with the 1.3000 major level providing support below. Overhead resistance can be found in the 1.3150 — 1.3180 area before we see a test of 1.3250.

GBP/USD – The British pound sterling rose for a second straight week against the dollar and closed above the 1.5250 exchange level. We could see this pair find support at the 1.5200 level with more round number support at the 1.5100 level and then the major 1.5000 level. Overhead resistance comes in at 1.5250 — 1.5285 area with a heavy resistance area possibly 1.5350 above. Notice the MACD indicator below is showing a divergence from price that could indicate support for a bullish outlook.

USD/JPY – The US dollar closed higher against the yen last week after falling the previous week. This currency pair closed over the major psychological level of 100.00 and look for this level to provide immediate support early this week. If the pair stays above the 100.00 level, the 101.25 — 101.50 area could bring overhead resistance into play while the 102.50 could provide resistance this week if we see a strong uptrend in the USD/JPY.

USD/CHF – The US dollar fell for a second straight week against the Swiss franc last week and perhaps a further fall will test the 0.9250 support level this week. Looking out over this week, the 0.9500 level could provide near-term overhead resistance while the 0.9550 level has provided resistance numerous times in the past. Near-term support should be seen in the 0.9375 — 0.9400 area before the 0.9300 — 0.9325 area comes into play with a potential target of 0.9250 if the dollar’s downtrend continues.

USD/CAD – The dollar fell slightly against the Canadian dollar last week to fall for a second straight week and following a sharp decline the previous week. The USD/CAD currency pair should see near-term support at the 1.0325 area early this week while further decline will likely see a test of the 1.0250 major level. Overhead resistance comes in at the 1.0425 area before the 1.0500 major resistance above.

AUD/USD – The Australian dollar rose against the US dollar last week as the AUD/USD currency pair may have found a base of support above the 0.9000 exchange rate level. This pair will look to build upon last week’s increase and test the 0.9250 level that has provided resistance for the past four weeks. A rise above this level would indicate a short-term turnaround in the Aussie’s trend. Look for support at the 0.9125 — 0.9150 area and the 0.9050 level before the major 0.9000 comes into play.

NZD/USD – The New Zealand dollar gained against the US dollar for second straight week and almost reached the 0.8000 major level last week. Further uptrend this week will test the overhead resistance areas of 0.8000 and then the 0.8050 level. Overcoming these levels would indicate a renewed interest in buying for the Kiwi and could see further gains in the weeks ahead. In the case of the downtrend this week, look for the 0.7850 level to provide near-term support with the 0.7750 — 0.7780 area come into play before the 0.7750 support level shows up.

Weekly Economic Highlights:

Monday, July 22

United States — existing home sales
United States — Chicago federal activity index

Tuesday, July 23

Japan — economic report
Canada — retail sales
United States — house price index
euro zone — consumer confidence
New Zealand — trade balance
Japan — merchandise trade

Wednesday, July 24

Australia — consumer price index
China — HSBC manufacturing
euro zone — German PMI
euro zone — PMI manufacturing
United States — new home sales
New Zealand — interest rate decision
Japan — foreign stock/bonds buying

Thursday, July 25

United Kingdom — GDP report
United States — weekly jobless claims
United States — durable goods orders
Japan — consumer price index

Friday, July 26

United States — University of Michigan confidence survey

With more than $18 billion at stake in Detroit’s restructuring, big law-firms and other advisers are clamoring to represent the city’s many creditors,including some advisers not exactly known for municipal work.

With more than $18 billion at stake in Detroit’s restructuring, big law firms and other advisers are clamoring to represent the city’s many creditors -including some advisers not exactly known for municipal work.For creditors and related parties, there is clearly a lot at stake. That means bondholders, insurers, retirees and others are sure to be accompanied in court by platoons of lawyers.

A senior G20 official said advanced G20 economies are ready to commit to numerical targets for public debt reduction after 2016 to boost investor confidence and create better conditions for economic growth.

By CountingPips.com

The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders and currency speculators raised their total bullish bets of the US dollar last week for a third straight week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, increased their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $29.61 billion as of Tuesday July 16th. This was a rise from the total long position of $27.94 billion that was registered on July 9th, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the combined positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

USD net long positions hit their highest level since June 4th when bullish positions totaled $39.12 billion, according to Reuters data calculations.

COT explanation: The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The large currency speculator net positions for each of the individual major currencies last week showed weekly increases for the euro, Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso while the Australian dollar, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar all had a declining number of large speculator positions for the week.

Notable changes: Euro spec contracts improved after falling for three straight weeks. The British pound and Japanese yen net positions declined for the third consecutive week while Swiss franc net positions dropped for a fourth week.

Individual Currency Charts:

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

The Group of 20’s finance ministers in Moscow say their countries consider strengthening economic growth and creating jobs to be top priorities. The group noted that although there are signs of stronger economies in the United States and Japan, the eurozone continues to suffer from recession and that economic growth in emerging markets is comparatively slow.

Russia’s finance minister said G20 policymakers have soft-pedaled on goals to cut government debt in favor of a focus on growth and how to exit central bank stimulus with a minimum of turmoil. The final communique from a Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers addresses fiscal consolidation less strongly than had been expected, with discussion focusing chiefly on spillover effects from the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by developed countries.