Week Ahead Market Report: 6/25/2012

The first trading day of the week has investors hoping that a European Union summit this week will help calm the escalating euro zone debt crisis. Good morning, this is Kristin Bianco with the Week Ahead Market Report for June 25, 2012.

Greek PM ill, hope of summit action fades

Both Greece’s new prime minister and finance minister will miss a greatly-anticipated summit of European leaders due to illness, also delaying a visit by Athens’ international lenders. The news is a blow for a summit where many hoped the leaders would find a definitive solution to the crisis.

Forex: Currency Speculators sharply reduce US Dollar long bets as Euro, Aussie positions improve

By CountingPips.com

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators sharply decreased their overall US dollar long positions last week. The recent Greek elections, which elected officials that were committed to staying in the EU currency union, provided some temporary relief to the markets as a Greek exit from the currency union was not imminent.

Non-commercial futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, cut their total US dollar long positions to $22.13 billion on June 19th from a total long position of $38.77 billion on June 12th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Individual Currencies:

EuroFX: Currency speculator sentiment rebounded sharply for the euro currency last week as euro net short positions or bets against the currency decreased to their best showing since May 1st. Euro short positions decreased to 141,066 contracts on June 19th from the previous week’s total of 195,187 net short contracts on June 12th. Euro positions have now improved for a second consecutive week and have reached the best level since May 1 when short positions numbered 106,990.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar. The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.

GBP: British pound sterling positions improved last week for the first time in six weeks. British pound positions, despite the improvement, continued to be on the short side with a total of 17,153 net short contracts on June 19th following a total of 23,112 net short contracts the previous week. British pound positions had fallen for five consecutive weeks after peaking at their highest level in over a year on May 8th and fell over to the short side on June 5th.

 

JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts improved slightly again last week and rose for a 10th consecutive week. Yen positions totaled 15,137 net long contracts reported on June 19th following a total of 12,307 net long contracts on June 12th. Japanese positions have now continued to be positive on the long side for three consecutive weeks.

 

CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions increased sharply to their best level since December 2011 last week. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 7,007 net short contracts on June 19th following a total of 33,301 net short contracts as of June 12th. The improved sentiment for the Swiss currency brought the speculative level to its best showing since December 19th 2011 when short contracts equaled 3,136 positions.

 

CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined for a seventh consecutive week after touching the highest level of the year on May 1st. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of 8,201 net long contracts as of June 19th following a total of 9,620 long contracts that were reported for June 12th. Canadian dollar contract are now at the lowest level since February 6th when positions equaled a total of 2,184 long contracts.

 

AUD: The Australian dollar positions increased sharply after slightly rebounding the previous week. Aussie positions rose higher to a total net amount of 3,458 short contracts on June 19th after falling to 45,459 net short contracts as of June 12th. AUD speculative positions touched their lowest level since at least 2009 on June 5th a total of 51,172 short contracts.

 

NZD: New Zealand dollar futures speculator positions improved for a second consecutive week although continue to be on the short side. NZD contracts increased to a total of 2,213 net short contracts as of June 19th following a total of 3,885 net short contracts on June 12th. The kiwi contracts have now been on the short side for five consecutive weeks.

 

MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts increased for second straight week after falling to monthly lows on June 5th. Peso positions rose to a total of 14,674 net short speculative positions as of June 19th following a total of 22,004 short contracts that were reported for June 12th. Mexican peso contracts on June 5th were at their lowest level since November 28th 2011 when positions equaled 36,240 short contracts.

 

COT Currency Data Summary as of June 19, 2012
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar

EUR -141066
GBP -17153
JPY +15137
CHF -7007
CAD +8201
AUD -3458
NZD -2213
MXN -14674

 

 

Lanai Dream

Prepare to be jealous: Wednesday night, Hawaii’s governor Neil Abercrombie announced that Oracle Corporation CEO Larry Ellison has bought 98% of the Hawaiian island Lanai. Lanai, Hawaii’s sixth-largest island, was once famous for its pineapple fields. Now, it’s more famous for its luxury resort life. Software mogul Ellison, the third richest person in America, has bought the island from previous owner David Murdock, the 89-year-old founder of Dole Foods. Reports have not officially revealed how much Ellison paid, but estimates range from $500 to $600 million. In the weeks before the governor’s official announcement, speculation ran wild that Bill Gates was considering the purchase.

Moody’s International

But us financial institutions weren’t the only one’s to feel the cut. Several international companies, Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, and UBS, to name a few, all suffered the mood of Moody’s. Credit Suisse lost 3 points, the worst of all, and that was seen this morning in early trades. Currently CS is bouncing back trading up 2.2% at 18.99.

App store International

6-22-2012- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced at the Worldwide Developers Conference a few weeks ago, that the App store would be available in 32 more countries soon. Today, The App Store added the 32 new countries to its selection page, making it clear that apps will now be available in those areas. Some of the countries that were added to the list were Albania, Fiji, Republic of Congo, and Ukraine. Apple increased the total number of countries who have access to the App store to 155. The App store already contains over 650,000 apps and has paid out over $5 billion to its developers.