SocGen’s Martin Says China World’s `Most-Crowded’ Short

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — Todd Martin, an Asia equity strategist at Societe General SA, talks about the outlook for China stocks. Societe Generale said yesterday China stocks are on the verge of a “massive short squeeze,” citing volumes and European restrictions on short sales. Martin also discusses the U.S. and China economies. He speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Day Trading for Beginners

By Taro Hideyoshi

As I mentioned in previous article, a key to success in day trading is to minimize the size of your loss while maximize the profit for each trade.

Since day traders have to keep their losses small, hence, they will get stopped out often. This causes their win/loss ratio of their trades to be low because it is hard to maintain a high percentage of profitable trades.

Therefore, the trading plan for day traders is to pick the most promising opportunities. Simply stated, enter a trade while the price is most likely to move in the direction of the trend with maximum range.

In order to accomplish this, the security we look for must have room to run. Before enter a trade, consider if there is a good portion of the range available for making profit.

Most traders tend to take their profits prematurely because they get nervous when the price makes its normal pullback. Letting your profit runs by staying frozen and watching the price pulls back before it makes new high is harder than it seems. The emotions get in the way when you start thinking about the money.

So, you have to understand the normal characteristics of price movement. The more proficient in this will help in maximizing your profit per trade in price movement.

Let get to another part: small losses. This is the part where you have the most control. If you are able to manage your losses, you will gain more profits even with average security selection.

The difficulty is it takes discipline and the proper mental attitude to determine your stop levels and execute it as your plan.

When it comes to real trading, what usually happens is traders determine a stop loss level but when the price gets to the stop level. They hesitate to pull the trigger. Maybe, it is because they see the price reverse and they hope that the price will start to move in the same direction as their position. However, the price move in another direction offers them a bigger loss.

This is forbidden territory for day traders. If you keep taking bigger losses, you have to increase the size of profit on your wining trades and also the win/loss trade ratio.

Controlling your profit is hard; it is easier to control your loss side. It is better to take the judgment out of your hands by placing stop order immediately after you enter a trade. It will protect you from your emotions.

About the Author

Taro is an experience trader who trades in stocks, futures, forex. He strongly focuses on technical analysis, trading systems and money management.

If you would like to find more articles on MetaStock Tutorials, MetaStock Formulas, Trading Systems and Money Management. Please go to MetaStock Trading System.

You would also find the list of recommended books for trading & investing at The Investing Books.

Wilbanks Likes Large U.S. Multinational, Emerging Stocks

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — Wayne Wilbanks, chief investment officer at Wilbanks Smith & Thomas Asset Management, talks about global stocks and investment strategy. Wilbanks also discusses the European debt crisis and its impact on financial markets. He speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Gold “Lacks Momentum”, Silver Volatility Nears 30-Year Record as Equity & Commodity Bounce Fades

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Weds, 28 Sept 2011

PRICE-ACTION in wholesale gold markets remained volatile in Asia and London on Wednesday, holding the gold price within $20 per ounce of last week’s finish – some 7%
above Monday’s two-month low – around $1650.

This week’s strong rally in global stock markets faded and industrial commodities also eased back, and Japanese and US government bonds were little changed as the Yen and Dollar continued to slip from last week’s sudden jump.

German Bunds fell in price – nudging interest rates higher – as new inflation data showed stronger than expected consumer-price rises in five German states.

UK government bonds rose, pushing 10-year gilt yields down towards 2.5%, fully two percentage points below the latest reading of consumer-price inflation.

“We view the very strong rally across both the equity and commodity markets as more of a relief rally, unlikely to be sustained,” says the latest note from Standard Bank’s commodity team, pointing to the difficulties facing the Eurozone’s plans to expand its ‘stabilization’ bail-out fund.

“However, momentum [in the gold price] is lacking as investors adopt a seemingly cautious attitude to entering the gold market after last week’s abrupt price fall.”

US crude oil contracts slipped back from $85 per barrel overnight, and base metal prices also fell, leaving copper almost 14% down week-on-week.

Like gold, the silver price held near last week’s finish, but traded in a wide range around $32 per ounce.

Since the $50 peak of Jan. 1980, daily volatility in the silver price has been greater in only two periods on a rolling 1-month basis – in spring 1987 and then in May this year.

Volatility in gold, on the other hand, was sharper than today in March 2009, Sept-Dec. 2008 and May-June 2006, as well as in spring 1983, autumn 1982, and early 1981.

“I doubt if [the gold price ] will go to $2000 an ounce in 2011,” says Jim Rogers, investment author, founder in the 1970s of the highly successful Quantum Fund with George Soros, and now chairman of Rogers Holdings.

“Gold is more likely to have a correction which will last for several weeks, several months,” Rogers tells the Economic Times of India in an interview.

“If it goes down some more, I would buy more gold. If silver continues to go down, I will buy more silver too. Do not sell…unless you are a short-term trader.”

Greek government bonds meantime ticked higher on Wednesday after the government in Athens – now suffering its fourth transport strike in as many days – won approval last night for a new property tax to be collected through electricity bills and aimed at raising €1.8 billion, some 1.1% of GDP.

“I have heard so far that Greece is ready to meet the conditions” of its next €8bn rescue payment from the International Monetary Fund and its European partners, said German chancellor Merkel after the vote.

“We want a strong Greece in the Euro area and Germany is ready to offer all kinds of help that is needed.”

German lawmakers will vote Thursday on allowing changes to the €440 billion Eurozone stabilization fund – changes now ratified by 9 of the 17 member states. The European
Commission meanwhile formally proposed a new financial transaction tax today, aimed at raising some €57bn by charging 0.1% on all institution-to-institution trades and due to start in 2014.

The tax will “ensure that the financial sector makes a fair contribution at a time of fiscal consolidation in the member states,” according to the EC.

Here in London, shares in Man Group fell nearly 20% on Wednesday morning after the hedge fund manager’s latest earnings report showed investors withdrawing $3 billion over the last 3 months from the GLG funds which it acquired last year.

This is already the fourth week running that Germany’s Dax stock-market index has moved by more than 6%.

“Little [gold] buying interest out of China ahead of the week-long holidays,” says one Hong Kong precious metals dealer in a note, but “Selling was less intensive and the price moves less vicious,” says another.

“The decline in the past two weeks has fully unwound a lot of the bullish enthusiasm [to Buy Gold] grounded in the market’s anticipation of QE3 or other inflationary Fed actions,” says MF Global’s Tom Pawlicki.

“We saw some ETF liquidation, and liquidation of speculative positions from the West,” agrees Neil Gregson at J.P.Morgan Asset Management.

“When things start to go into panic mode, you could sort of say it was this ‘dash for cash’ that happened post-Lehman’s.”

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices

Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Felices Says Euro May Fall to $1.25 in Next Three Months

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) — Guillermo Felices, head of European currency strategy at Barclays Capital, discusses the outlook for the euro, the sovereign debt crisis and European Central Bank monetary policy. He also comments on the dollar’s haven status and the pound. Felices spoke yesterday with Bloomberg’s Paul Dobson in London.

Lieberman Says He’s Buying Stocks, Likes Industrials

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — Charles Lieberman, chief investment officer at Advisors Capital Management, talks about his investment strategy for U.S. stocks. Lieberman also discusses the outlook for equities and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. He speaks with Adam Johnson, Carol Massar, Suzanne O’Halloran and Julie Hyman on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

The Safest International Dividend Payer on Earth

By Paul Tracy, DividendOpportunities.com

I’ve found what I think is one of the safest dividend paying stocks on the planet.

During the past year, this company earned $8.1 billion dollars in profits. It only distributed $4.5 billion in dividends. In other words, it could see its earnings fall more than 40%… and still be able to maintain the dividend.

At the same time, this company’s stock has held strong in the downturn, especially compared to the broader market. In fact, if you go back to just before the downturn started, it’s down only about 2% — compared to a double-digit drop in the S&P 500. Just take a look at the graph.

But let me tell you, it’s not billions of dollars in earnings that cover the dividend payment or strong performance in a rocky market that make me think this is one of the safest dividend stocks in the world.

While a healthy dividend and reduced losses may be nice perks for investors, it’s what this company does that makes it so stable.

You see, when the economy’s strong, people don’t have a problem buying high-tech gadgets or spending bundles on luxuries. But as soon as the economy starts to head south, these expenses are the first to be cut.

But there are some goods that people always buy, regardless of the economy. These “necessities,” and the companies that make them, often perform well — even during times of financial uncertainty.

 

Take cigarettes for example. It doesn’t matter much what the economy is doing, people will still buy cigarettes. That’s good news for cigarette makers like Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM).

Philip Morris International is the world’s second-largest tobacco company (behind China National Tobacco) and holds almost 16% of the non-U.S. market. PMI’s brands include seven of the world’s top 15 names, including Marlboro, the number one cigarette brand worldwide.

This company is a spin-off of Altria’s (NYSE: MO) cigarette business outside U.S. borders. Altria continues to sell its brands, including Marlboro and Merit, in the United States, but that business is slowly shrinking.

Outside the U.S., it’s a different story.

For all of 2010, Philip Morris International saw cigarette sales rise 4.1% (thanks to acquisitions), while revenues increased 8.7%.

Looking at sales volume, Europe remains the company’s single most important market. Right now, 38% of Philip Morris’ sales come from Europe.

But things are changing. High taxes and new tobacco regulations are pushing down sales in countries like Greece, Spain and France, places where per-capita tobacco consumption has historically been pretty high.

However, even though fewer smokers in developed countries are lighting up, estimates still say that there will be 1.4 billion smokers globally by 2020. That’s up from the 1.3 billion out there today.

So if it’s not the U.S., and it’s not Europe, where are all these new smokers coming from?

The emerging markets.

As countries in these regions expand, there’s a substantial increase in the disposable incomes of their citizens. With a little more money in their wallets, a larger percentage of the population can afford premium international cigarettes.

But of course, we’re most interested in the dividend — and its safety.

Currently, Philip Morris International pays $0.77 per share every quarter; it also announced a 20% dividend increase earlier this month. That amounts to $3.08 per share every year, or a 4.8% yield at recent prices.

That might not sound like much to write home about, but here’s the kicker — PM has raised the dividend 67.4% since 2008.

And the company can afford this increase to its dividend. Like I said earlier, PMI has a payout ratio of 55% over the trailing twelve months, indicating plenty of room for future growth… and a near zero risk of a cut at this time.

So though the shares currently yield 4.8%, investors who buy now are likely to see their yield on cost rise over time.

Now, I know investing in cigarettes may not be for everyone, and I am by no means condoning the behavior. But as an analyst, it’s my job to find ripe investment opportunities. And with a history of steady cash flow, the strongest brand names in the industry, and substantial emerging market growth, Philip Morris International is an ideal safety-first income play.

That doesn’t mean this investment is risk-free — nothing short of a savings account is. However, I do think the stock ranks high among the safest dividend-payers in the world.

But Philip Morris is just one of the many income-paying prospects available from companies focused overseas. In fact, I think the abundance of international income investments is one of the market’s best-kept secrets… there are literally thousands of high-yielders abroad.

To prove this, I recently had a member of StreetAuthority’s research staff comprise a list of profitable companies with shares yielding 12% or more. What we found was pretty remarkable.

In total, my team found 430 common stocks paying dividends of 12% or higher. However, only 18 of these companies were located in the U.S. The other 412 were located in international markets.

That means if you want high yielding stocks — then 96% of your opportunities are located outside the United States. But don’t worry, you can buy many of these without even leaving the U.S. markets.

I have more details — including several names and ticker symbols — in a presentation I recently put together. Visit this link to watch now. In the presentation, I’ve even included the full list of the 18 U.S. companies yielding above 12%.

All the best,

Paul Tracy
StreetAuthority Co-founder, Chief Investment Strategist —
High-Yield International

Disclosure: Paul Tracy owns shares of PM. StreetAuthority owns shares of PM as part of the company’s various “real money” portfolios. In accordance with company policies, StreetAuthority always provides readers with at least 48 hours advance notice before buying or selling any securities in any “real money” model portfolio.

Optimism Returns to Markets; Commodities, EUR Rally

By ForexYard

Stock markets, commodities and other riskier assets rallied Tuesday on hopes the European officials will soon reach an agreement on measures for handling the Euro-Zone debt crisis.

Economic News

USD – USD Drops as Stock Markets Rally

The US Dollar declined Tuesday as global risk appetite recovered on growing speculation euro-zone will soon take measures to attack the debt crisis. As global stocks rallied Tuesday, safe currencies such as the USD and JPY declined versus their riskier counterparts.

The Dollar also lost some ground after the release of better than expected data from the US. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI showed U.S. home prices rose 0.9% in July and the CB Consumer Confidence also showed a slight increase this month, though came less than expected.

Wednesday, traders should follow the release of the Core Durable Goods Orders as well as the address by Fed Chairman Bernanke for clues regarding the state of the US economy and future actions.

EUR – EUR Higher on speculation of Action by Euro-Zone Officials

Riskier currencies such as the EUR gained Tuesday as sock markets rallied and optimism returned to markets. Expectations of action by Euro-Zone officials in solving the regions debt crisis prompted risk appetite from traders. The EUR rose to $1.3620, compared with $1.3497 late Monday.

The optimism may have been a bit premature and many analysts are skeptical of short term resolutions.

Traders are advised to follow the German Prelim CPI release as well as stock markets for overall market sentiment.

JPY – Yen Declines as Demand for Safe Currencies Wanes

The Yen declined as global stocks rallied on optimism European leaders will soon agree on measures to attack the debt crisis, damping demand for safe currencies.

The yen has strengthened against all its 16 major counterparts this month, prompting concern Japan will intervene in the market and devaluate the currency.

If current market optimism continues today, the Yen will likely continue to decline.

OIL – Crude future rally on Market Optimism regarding Euro-Zone Debt Crisis

Crude rose by close to $3 Tuesday as optimism regarding an imminent resolution agreement on steps by European Leader in resolving the debt crisis bolstered demand for commodities.

Crude oil for November delivery advanced $3.60, or 4.5 percent, to $83.84 a barrel.

Continued market optimism will likely support Oil prices at current level, however, a return to a bearish mode may see Oil below $80 a barrel again. Traders should follow the news releases from the US and Euro-Zone as to gauge market sentiment.

Technical News

EUR / USD

The EUR/USD has gone increasingly bearish in the past few weeks, and currently stands at the 1.3630 level. The weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic supports this currency cross to fall further today. However, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal will take place today. Entering the pair when the signs are clearer seems to be the wise choice today.

GBP / USD

The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart’s Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

USD / JPY

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

USD / CHF

The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 0.8940 level. The weekly chart’s RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

The Wild Card

USD/TRY

This pair’s sustained upward movement has finally pushed its price into the over-bought territory on the weekly chart’s RSI. Not only that, but there actually appears to be a bearish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic pointing to an imminent downward correction. Forex traders have the opportunity to wait for the downward breach on the hourlies and go short in order to ride out the impending wave.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Anatomy of a Credit Contagion

By MoneyMorning.com.au

–The gold charts we showed you yesterday made the case for a golden recovery. Today we cede the chart analysis to the master, our technical guru Murray Dawes. Murray’s posted his latest big picture update over at his Slipstream Trader YouTube channel. Go have a look now.

– Murray’s work highlights the interconnection of markets. But you have to wonder if the equity markets have basically put up their hand to the bond market and said, “Talk to the hand, baby.” That’s what you do when someone has bad news you’d rather not hear, baby.


–What bad news? How about one-year Greek bond yields of 114%? This is the bond market’s way of telling you Greece is going to default. In fact, that news is probably old news for stock market investors. So what’s the new news?

–The new news – the news not priced into the stock market yet – is that the €3 trillion figure being thrown around in markets might as well be a basket of unicorns, shamrocks, and rainbows. If investors think the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is the €3 trillion solution to Europe’s sovereign debt woes, they are bunch of suckers and deserve the losses that are coming.

–Moral judgements aside, the bond market is starting to communicate some useful information about Italy and Spain. Mind you, the European Central Bank has been doing the equivalent of putting its hand over the bond market’s mouth and telling it to shut up. By buying government bonds, the ECB keeps official borrowing costs down for Spain and Italy and confuses the price signals coming out the market.

–But the signals are still there. Yesterday Italy and Spain sold a combined $24 billion in bonds. Most of them were short term. The market is reluctant to lend to European governments for 30 years. But three months is doable.

–The yields on Italian and Spanish bonds are still remarkably low given the size of the debt that needs to be refinanced in the next 12 months. Italy paid 4.51% at its auction of two-year notes. The interest rate on 10-year Spanish government bonds is now 5.07%

–You can see from the chart below that Italian and Spanish 10-year yields have not yet gone the way of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. If and when they do, all hell will break loose in financial markets. The ECB is trying desperately to prevent all hell from breaking loose.

10 year government bond yield

–As for shares, the best thing you can say about them right now is that they’re not European government bonds. That alone may have accounted for the big moves overnight. Aussie stocks rocketed up 3.6% by the close yesterday. Gold, silver, and commodities rallied too.

–But it’s probably not a bad time to back up, grab a history book off the shelf, and see if anything like this has happened before. You’ll find a case study below from Greg Canavan, editor of Sound Money. Sound investments. The excerpt is taken from a recent issue of his monthly report. It’s the anatomy of a credit contagion…

Does Greece 2011 = Austria 1931?

The whole euro-debt crisis has become a farce. Each day the market reacts to rumours about a potential change to the situation. Big rallies and declines characterise each day’s trading. This is a feature of a fragile and vulnerable market.

The probability is increasing that we experience a disorderly event in the next few months

‘The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from its profits or so dependent on its favours that there will be no opposition from that class.’ – Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild.

‘Bankers own the earth; take it away from them but leave them with the power to create credit; and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again… If you want to be slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let the bankers control money and control credit.’ – Sir Josiah Stamp, Director, Bank of England, 1940.

‘The money power preys on the nation in times of peace, and conspires against it in times of adversity. It is more despotic than monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy. It denounces, as public enemies, all who question its methods or throw light upon its crimes.’ – Abraham Lincoln

‘When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.’ – Frederic Bastiat – (1801-1850) in Economic Sophisms

For subscribers who have been with SMSI since the start, the above headline might look vaguely familiar. In just the second issue, published in February 2010, I asked whether the situation in Greece in 2010 was similar to that of Austria in 1931.

Over 18 months later, it is only the year that needs changing. The situation in Greece is mired in uncertainty. It has the ability to trigger a credit crisis on par with that experienced in 2008. I’ll explain why in a moment. But first, let’s look at the parallels to Austria in 1931. Here’s what I wrote last year:

‘It is worth remembering that upheavals in Europe triggered the economic malaise that made the Great Depression “Great”. Although 1929 is etched into history as being synonymous with the Great Depression, the real tragedy did not get underway until 1931.

‘The Austrian bank Boden-Kredit- Anstalt was rendered insolvent in the aftermath of the late 1920s credit boom. It was “saved” in October 1929 by merging with the stronger Oesterreichische-Credit-Anstalt. An international syndicate headed by the Rothschild’s of Vienna, and including J.P Morgan and Company, injected new capital into the merged entity.

‘The Austrian Government guaranteed the bad debts of the old bank and the merged entity spent 1930 “muddling through”. But then in May 1931, the Credit-Anstalt bank collapsed. Some blamed the political climate at the time, with the economic union between Germany and Austria (Zollverein) spooking France. Others simply stated that Austria had “consumed its capital”, with the result that a banking collapse was inevitable.

‘Whatever the reason, the collapse of Credit-Anstalt triggered a run on German banks by French and US creditors, leading to the forced closure of the German banking system. London financiers were heavily exposed to German banks and industry, and were caught out by the banking sector shutdown, which effectively froze their assets.

‘This in turn caused panic amongst London’s foreign creditors and a run on sterling, at the time the world’s (weakening) reserve currency, began. And so went the contagion that crippled the world economically and provided the impetus for Hitler’s rise and decades of economic and political turmoil.

‘In the 1930s, contagion went from the periphery to the core in very quick time. Austria folded in May 1931. By September of that year, Britain had gone off the gold exchange standard (a poor imitation of the classical gold standard) and devalued the pound sterling.’

The subsequent currency, economic and political upheaval was profound. Confidence in the system disintegrated as the system itself altered beyond most people’s recognition.

Stock markets around the world renewed their falls. They finally reached a bottom in 1932. In the US, the ‘bottom’ (not that anyone knew at the time) represented a fall of around 80 per cent from the 1929 highs. Needless to say, if you had any cash, that was also the buying opportunity of a lifetime. But few had any cash.

Then and now

Obviously the parallels today to the situation existing in 1931 are eerie. But there are also major differences, which is why this drama has dragged on for so long.

Amongst Europe’s major powers there is a strong desire to maintain the status quo. France and to a lesser extent Germany, are doing their utmost to keep the Eurozone intact. Back in the 1930s, it was pretty much every man for himself. Great War enmities lingered and spilled over to the economic and political sphere. Coordinated action was impossible.

While there are certainly differences between then and now, you should ask – will the outcome be any different?

Greece is sliding towards default. It would’ve happened back in 2010 but the politicians and bankers did all they could to avoid this impending reality. They provided Greece with billions of dollars in loans, hoping growth would pull the country out of the hole. Instead, the depression has deepened and Greece has just dug itself in deeper.

This ensures the eventual day of reckoning will be that much worse when it arrives.

The whole euro-debt crisis has become a farce. Each day the market reacts to rumours about a potential change to the situation. Big rallies and declines characterise each day’s trading. This is a feature of a fragile and vulnerable market. Confidence is fleeting.

On the one hand, the market is saying a Greek default is imminent. On the other, those with an interest in maintaining the status quo make soothing statements about Greece sticking to its austerity program and remaining a part of the Eurozone.

In my opinion, the market is far smarter than a bunch of determined and self-interested politicians and bankers. Greek one-year bonds are yielding a massive 134 per cent in the secondary market. The two-year note trades on a yield of nearly 77 per cent (see chart).

Greek two-year bond yields

Greek two-year bond yields

Source: Bloomberg


Greece simply doesn’t have enough money to endure. It desperately needs a €8bn loan from the European Union and International Monetary Fund to be able to pay its bills. The loan is due in the next couple of weeks but it is under threat because Greece has not met previously agreed austerity targets.

So over the weekend, Greek politicians proposed a new property tax to try and secure the rescue funding. Without it, a default is a certainty. Like Australians, the Greeks love their property and further civil disorder will stem from these latest measures.

Regardless of whether the tax is actually collected though, the intention to do so will be enough for nervous Eurocrats to release the next tranche of the rescue loan. It’s not really a kick, but the can will be scuffed down the road for a few more weeks at least.

Dan Denning
Money Morning Australia


Anatomy of a Credit Contagion