American Manufacturing Hit Speed Bump in June

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The publication of this afternoon’s report on durable goods orders highlighted the halting growth that many analysts had feared. The US Census Bureau reported a 2.1% decline in durable goods orders for the month of June, with a meager 0.1% growth in core durable goods orders.

The core report, which excludes transportation items, did show small growth, but the nominal reading highlights the sentiment that companies are not investing in their logistics and transportation infrastructure. The readings have so far helped fuel the rise of safe-haven investing among traders, and this sentiment appears to be holding steady through the rest of the week.

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Australian PPI Sees Growth Near 1%

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published data on its producer price index (PPI) this morning revealing solid inflationary growth. Expectations for the quarterly figure were for a mild 0.7% on both the nominal reading and its trimmed mean (i.e. core) counterpart.

Actual results from the morning’s data, however, underscored the growth experienced in the Pacific economies of Australia and New Zealand recently. The data produced solid 0.9% growth on the two indices, climbing above forecasts and helping the Australian dollar (AUD) hold steady in early morning trading.

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Pond Says Bond Yield Curve Steepening on Debt Concern

July 27 (Bloomberg) — Michael Pond, co-head of interest-rate strategy at Barclays Capital, talks about impact of the U.S. debt debate and possible default on the Treasury market. Pond speaks with Matt Miller and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack.” John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC, also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)

The Best Way to Get Funding for Your Business

By Michael Masterson

Last week, I suggested that it takes more than an idea – even if it’s a really fantastic idea – to attract potential investors. You need to prove that your idea has legs by turning it into a working model.

But then what? Once you’ve got a working model, where do you go for the money you need to turn it into a business?

In general, there are four sources of capital: venture capital firms, government agencies, commercial banks, and private investors or partners.

If you think your idea might be of interest to venture capitalists, check out the National Venture Capital Association (nvca.org). But for the average entrepreneur, venture capital isn’t a possibility. As Paul Lawrence explained in his article “Raising Capital for Small Business Ventures“:

“Yes, some venture capital firms will invest in new businesses, but such businesses are usually involved in technology or some other high-growth area. Frankly, for most small businesses, venture capital isn’t even an option. It’s rare for a small-business concept to have the kind of mammoth payoff venture capitalists look for.”

“Plus, the cost of doing business with these companies is high. It’s basic economics. Their risk is high, so their reward must also be high. Even if you were to interest a venture capital company in your business, you’d be aghast at what they’d want in terms of their ownership position.”

What about government grants? Tim Berry, author of Hurdle: The Book on Business Planning, points out that government funding agencies usually have “social” agendas. Grants and loans are available to minorities – especially minority businesses engaged in education, antidiscrimination projects, community services, fine arts, and other politically popular objectives.You can find out if your business idea might be a candidate for government money by checking into any of the government agencies whose purpose is to stimulate entrepreneurship. The best known is the Small Business Administration.

I wouldn’t advise taking this route, though. It requires too much bending to bureaucracy. Too much artificiality. Too much red tape. Getting these loans and grants takes months (or years) of filling out forms. And there are all sorts of reporting and regulatory requirements – enough to slow down even the most patient person. Plus, government-funded business projects have an extremely high failure rate once the funding is withdrawn. That’s because they begin with an idea, not a working model. And the idea isn’t good to begin with because it is based on social policy instead of being connected to profits – which is, after all, what fuels a business.

As for getting money from a commercial bank, I can make this short: Forget about it. The only way a bank will lend you money these days is if (a) you have excellent credit and (b) you can collateralize your loan with assets. If you have good credit and tons of money, you don’t need a bank loan. You can loan yourself the money.

This brings us to the fourth and final option…

Finding a Private Investor or Partner

At first blush, private funding seems like the least likely way to go. You may not know anybody who has money. Or if you do, you may not be willing to risk damaging the relationship by mixing it with business.

Some business experts advocate hitting up friends and family. I never did that, because my personal relationships were always more valuable than my desire for money. But I did ask business acquaintances to invest with me. My relationships with them were based on money, so I didn’t think it was inappropriate.

One of my first businesses, a house painting service I started with a buddy when we were still in high school, required a very modest investment. About $400 to pay for ladders and tools. We didn’t have the money, so we got a job with a painting contractor and saved up to buy what we needed. It took six months – and during that time, we were making all sorts of good contacts. We were getting to know paint wholesalers and equipment rental providers and even future customers.

When we were ready to go off on our own, we spent a few weeks knocking on doors and offering discounted service. Before we knew it, we had all the work we could handle.

Years later, I funded an idea I had for a new publication by asking my boss if he wanted to invest in it. When he found out I had no money of my own, he took 75 percent of the deal and made me sign notes to repay him the 25 percent (about $10,000 or $15,000) that I was liable for. I was a little unhappy with the arrangement at the time – but eventually I realized he was being very generous.

Once I recognized that when it comes to funding “good ideas,” money talks, I switched strategies. I decided I’d never attempt to sell an idea again. Instead, I’d sell a working model. Nowadays, when I’m looking for capital, I wait until some version of my idea has already proven itself to be profitable. At that point, I can go to any good businessperson and show him the numbers. Sales and cash flow can persuade in a way that market research and computer charts can’t.

The Difference Between Getting a Loan and Taking On a Partner

Let’s say you have proven your idea in the marketplace with a working model. The next step is to figure out whether you want an investor or a partner.

The advantage of taking on debt (getting a loan from an investor) is that you do not give up equity in your business. It can still be 100 percent yours. The disadvantage is that you will owe the money even if the business fails.

The advantage of accepting investment capital (taking on a partner) is that you don’t have to pay the investor if your model doesn’t work out in the bigger world. A second, often overlooked, advantage is that you will have someone to bounce ideas off. (The best investors are successful people in the industry you are entering.)

In between getting a loan and taking on a partner, there’s room to play. You might be able to structure a deal that has the best of both worlds – a loan that gives the lender a limited (though significant) upside if the business takes off. To get that, you would have to make some concessions. You may have to pay back some of the loan if the business fails, for example. Or you might take, say, 50 percent of the salary the business intends to pay you and use that to pay down the loan over time.

Ultimately, the guy with the money decides what the deal is. You’ll do better negotiating your stake if you present a very exciting and trustworthy picture of the business’s potential. And that will depend on having detailed financial reports on costs and cash flow and profits, if there are any.

Prepare to Make the Pitch

Before you can contact prospective investors or partners, you need to figure out how much money you need. Come up with three scenarios: ideal, less ideal, and minimum. Of course, there will be advantages in having the ideal amount of capital – but don’t get your heart set on that. Chances are you will get option two or three. Be prepared to work with either.

In making the pitch, follow Paul Lawrence’s SIPE process – Solicit, Interest, Persuade, Execute:

1. Solicit

Begin informally. Casually ask your prospect, “If I happened to come across an interesting business opportunity, would you like to hear about it?”

It’s important to note that you’re not asking him if he would invest in a business, but if he’d like to hear about potential opportunities. Since he won’t feel that he’s being pressured, it’s more likely that he will give you a positive response.

You also immediately rule out people who have no interest in any business proposals… without putting them (or you) in an uncomfortable position.

2. Interest

Give your prospect a one-sentence description of your business. A long-winded explanation can sound like you don’t have confidence in your business idea or that you don’t really know what you’re talking about. You then follow up with an estimate of the business’s profit potential and a couple of supporting statements that provide strong reasons to believe it is viable.

3. Persuade

If the person you are pitching seems interested, set up a second meeting to present him with a written proposal.

Make it short and to the point, no more than eight pages. If you are presenting it to the right person – someone already successful in the industry – he will not need more than that.

The proposal should have two goals:

  • First, to prove the substantial profit potential of the business. Rely heavily on actual numbers. (If possible, have the numbers prepared by a neutral accountant.) Based on your working model, estimate your gross revenues, expenses, and profits over a three- to five-year period. If it adds up to a healthy estimated net profit, you’re off to a good start.
  • Second, to demonstrate the low-risk nature of the investment. Although you can’t ethically or legally guarantee that an investor won’t lose his money, you can explain why there is a good chance he won’t lose it. Since much of your evidence is coming from a working model, this should be easy to do.

Although Paul doesn’t include this in his SIPE formula, I’d add this: Put some of your own money into the deal. Even if you haven’t got a lot, you should have something in it. As a rule, I never invest in a deal unless my partner has some “skin in the game.” The money you put into making the working model counts. But pledge some more money too.

4. Execute

Once your prospect agrees to the terms you’ve negotiated, arrange for a third meeting to sign a “deal memo” – a basic outline of your understanding. The main reason to have a deal memo is so that, in the future, there will be no debate as to what was originally agreed to. If your deal is large or complicated, you may want to have a formal contract. But in many cases, a deal memo is strong enough to be legally enforceable.

If none of the above works to get funding for your business, that tells me you didn’t begin at the beginning – by proving the validity of your idea with a working model. So go back to square one and do what you have to do. Meanwhile, I have some advice for you – a suggestion I’ve made many times in ETR. Steven Brandt, who taught small business management at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, states it this way:

“If you really can’t get your company going now, because you can’t pare it down and you can’t get it financed, then start down a path that eventually will lead you there. Work in a related business as an employee and keep your eyes open. Look for potential partners that you could work with in the future.”

[Ed Note: If you don’t want to worry about funding, you CAN start a business with just a few bucks, in your spare time. Learn how to get all the details – including how to set up a website, how to create products, low-cost marketing strategies, and much more – right here.

As a special thank you to our best customers, Michael has started a VIP service in which he gives insider business-building advice usually reserved for his private clients – a twice-weekly newsletter called Ready Fire Aim: The Michael Masterson Dispatch. If you have bought an ETR product or attended a conference and are not receiving Ready Fire Aim, please let us know by sending an e-mail to [email protected].]

This article appears courtesy of Early To Rise, a free newsletter dedicated to creating wealth and success through inspiration and practical, proven advice. For a complimentary subscription, visit http://www.earlytorise.com.

Where is the Aussie Dollar Headed?

By Aaron Tyrrell

The answer is up. And down. Let me explain…

In mid-October 2010, the Aussie hit par with the US dollar. In November, it leapt that hurdle. And by May 2011, it hit a record high of US$1.10.

Today it’s at US$1.09621… And it could have its sights set on reaching new highs again.

AUD vs USD 120-day chart

Source: x-rates.com

I asked Slipstream Trader Murray Dawes this morning, ‘Will the dollar go down from here?’

He said, ‘If the US keeps printing money, I don’t see why it can’t hit US$1.30.’

Great news for online shoppers…

That’s a price the Aussie hasn’t been near since the mid-1970s (as you’ll see on the chart below). But that doesn’t make it a radical call…

The Aussie dollar success story is really a US dollar debt story.

And right now, the US dollar is getting creamed around the world. At nine o’clock this morning, the euro was buying US$1.4471.

But US investor, Jim Rogers pointed out the spanner in the works that could halt the Aussie’s rapid rise. ‘The world doesn’t have enough cotton for Bernanke to print all that money.’

Ha!

I guess that’s why some jokers online suggest the US mint a trillion-dollar palladium coin.

Jokes aside, there’s no doubt the US will try to print its way out of trouble.

But even if it does… And Murray is right about the Aussie dollar hitting US$1.30 in the short or medium term… There’s really only one way for the Aussie to go from here…

Look at this chart:

AUD vs USD 40-year chart

On the far right you can see the Aussie dollar is reaching highs against the US dollar it hasn’t hit since 1983.

Now look at the rest of this chart. You can see, every time the dollar hits a high against the greenback, it starts to drop. If it were to fall from its high – as it did near the end of 2008 – it wouldn’t find ‘support’ until it hit 98 cents.

I’ve pencilled in some rough ‘support levels’… 98 cents, 85 cents and 80 cents…

If the dollar were to have a mega slide… these are the levels it is likely to hit and have to break through. After that, the falls could get much sharper. BANG – to 70 cents… then 60 cents.

All signs seem to point to the Aussie going down in the long run…

But, in the short term… As the US debt crisis grows more serious… And investors move to the relative safety of commodity currencies, like the Aussie and Canadian dollar… US$1.30 might be a good call.

Aaron Tyrrell
Editor, Money Morning

Where is the Aussie Dollar Headed?

New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision this evening and is expected to hold rates at 2.50%. Traders are increasing their expectations for an interest rate hike in the near term having bid the Kiwi to a 30-year high. Odds are in favor of the RBNZ to signal a future rate increase but given the global backdrop of two debt crises and market positioning, disappointment by the RBNZ could initiate a sharp pullback in the NZD/USD.

After the New Zealand interest rate decision the accompanying rate statement could contain more hawkish language given the strong GDP the New Zealand economy produced in H1. New Zealand GDP rose 0.8% in Q2 and 0.5% in Q1. Yesterday the NBNZ business confidence survey showed 47.6% of participants expect improving business conditions, up from 46.5%. Following the strong economic data markets have prices in 1.0% of tightening over the next 12 months.

But given the global economy currently faces headwinds with two major debt crises the RBNZ may wait another month before prepping the market for an interest rate increase. Should this occur, market positioning suggests the NZD/USD could decline sharply. Last week’s IMM data shows speculators have increased their long positions to the highest level since November of last year. A pullback in the NZD/USD could take the pair lower to 0.8515, the 38% Fibonacci retracement from the move beginning in mid-July.

NZD IMM

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European Debt Crisis Still Here

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Traders should remember the euro zone debt crisis hasn’t gone anywhere. Comments today by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaüble sent the euro lower when Schaüble said in a letter to the Bundestag, “it would be a mistake to think that the crisis of trust in the euro area can be solved by a single summit.” The comments sparked a widening of spreads between Italian bonds and German bunds as well as in Spanish bonds. The euro was lower versus the dollar and in the crosses.

Traders have been quick to offer the euro when the EUR/USD rises above 1.45. Initial Support comes in at 1.4440 but the euro could receive a bid should the 1.420 level hold. This is an important support as it coincides with last Friday’s low and the rising trend line on the hourly chart.

Turning to the other debt crisis, Republicans and the President appear to be farther away from a deal and the US debt ceiling negotiations look to the be the key driver in the minds of forex traders. Core durable goods orders are due up shortly and are expected to show an improvement of 0.5%. A reading above this level would likely feed into dollar selling while boosting the dollar block currencies (NZD, AUD, CAD) which are trading at all-time highs.

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Dollar Pressured As Debt Ceiling Deadline Draws Near

By ForexYard

The dollar has been pressured as the gridlock in Washington increases with the August 2nd deadline for Congress and the President to raise the debt ceiling. The Republican plan presented by House Speaker John Boehner collapsed as the Congressional Budget Office said the plan would fail to meet Boehner’s own deficit cutting expectations and therefore will not be voted upon on Wednesday as planned, further delaying a potential solution to raise the debt ceiling. Financial pressure is being felt predominantly in the US dollar whereas yields on US government bonds actually fell yesterday.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Trades at Lowest Level since May

The Congressional Budget Office informed the GOP that the plan presented by Speaker of the House John Boehner would only cut $850 billion from the budget deficit. Boehner himself had pledged to initially cut $1.2 trillion in spending over the next 10 years. In a blow to Republicans the bill will be sent back for rewriting and throw a wrench in a potential solution to raise the US debt ceiling.

While the debt ceiling negotiations takes the limelight US data yesterday showed disappointing data that fed into USD selling. Housing data continues to drag with the S&P Case-Shiller HPI showing a dip in housing prices by -4.5%. New home sales fell short at 312K on expectations of 321K while the Richmond Manufacturing Index declined to -1 from 3. A bright spot in yesterday’s data were increasing consumer confidence numbers but the three previous negative data releases combined with a very public debt ceiling fight had the greenback on its back foot.

Strong gains were booked against the dollar by all of the G7 currencies with significant moves in the dollar block currencies. Pressures in the financial markets are predominantly felt in the USD with the dollar index falling to a low of 73.446. The last time the dollar index traded this low was in May. Despite the USD weakness it appears that real money portfolio managers are expecting a positive outcome from the debt ceiling struggles as the yield on the 10-year note actually fell yesterday back below the 3% level. 30-year Treasuries also strengthened. If markets were forecasting a US default, pressures would be felt in the US government bond yields.

GBP – GDP Weak but Enough to Boost Sterling

Sterling performed well yesterday after Q2 GDP numbers came in line with consensus forecasts at 0.2%. Traders were largely expecting a more disappointing figure. While growth of 0.2% is nothing to brag home about and does signal a stagnant UK economy, a figure that came in below this level may have supported additional asset purchases by the BOE. The GDP report does not rule out more quantitative easing but sets the bar a bit higher for additional easing of monetary policy. While the British pound is certainly no prize, in a contest of the least ugly with the dollar and the euro, it may just be pulling ahead.

The GDP data helped cable climb to its highest level since mid-June, rising above the previously broken trend line from the May 2010 low. The next resistance for the GBP/USD is found at the end of May high at 1.6550. Support is located at this week’s low at 1.6220.

AUD – AUD and NZD Trade at 30-year highs

The dollar block currencies were the strongest performers yesterday versus a weak US dollar. The AUD was supported by both comments from RBA Governor Stevens who suggested the Australian economy is improving and talked down a potential interest rate cut this year. Inflationary pressures also supported the AUD. Q2 inflation climbed 0.9% on consensus forecasts of 0.7%. Following the data release this morning traders pushed the AUD/USD to a 30-year high. The next target for the AUD/USD is the big round number at 1.1100.

The Kiwi is also trading at a 30-year high after strong business confidence numbers helped to boost the New Zealand dollar. Tonight the RBNZ is expected to keep the cash rate steady at 2.50% but the accompanying rate statement could contain more hawkish language given the strong GDP the New Zealand economy produced in H1. Any hint of an interest rate increase could boost the NZD/USD to the next big round number at 0.8800.

Gold – Gold Trades at New All-Time High

Spot gold climbed to a new all-time high at $1,625. This is the second consecutive day the price of spot gold has reached a new high as traders worry over the US debt ceiling crisis. Spot gold may also be receiving a bid due to the potential for the US to lose its AAA rating. S&P has warned its highest rating could be in jeopardy if the US doesn’t cut $4 trillion from the debt. On Monday President Obama warned the US could lose its rating for the first time in history. More gains in the commodity could be booked should Congress and the President fail to come to an agreement over the debt ceiling.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has taken a step away from the edge after failing to get a close below its 200-day moving average and the price is testing the falling trend line from the May and July highs at 1.4450. Short term momentum is currently rising and break above this resistance line may find resistance at the peaks from July, June, and May at 1.4580, 1.4700, and 1.4940 respectively. However, a bearish tweezer candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart from last week’s highs on Thursday and Friday, strengthening the argument for the 3-month old resistance line to hold. Support is found at 1.4015, 1.3835, and 1.3780 from the rising trend line off of the June 2010 low.

GBP/USD

After dipping as low as 1.5780 which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement level from the May 2010 to April 2011 move, Cable has broken above both the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern and the resistance line falling from the April and May highs. The pair has now found resistance at the previously broken trend line from the May 2010 low and now serves as initial resistance at 1.6360. A move above this line will likely go on to test the May high at 1.6545 though sterling bears may make a stand before the April high of 1.6745. To the downside support may come in where the neckline and the previous resistance line off the April and May highs intercept at 1.6190. Additional support is located at 1.6000 and the July low at 1.5780.

USD/JPY

The reemergence of yen strength has taken the USD/JPY one step closer to its all-time low at 76.11. Falling stochastics on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts all point to additional declines in the pair. Initial support is found at 78.20 followed by the lower line from the falling wedge pattern from December 2008 which comes in at 77.50. A move higher may find resistance at 79.60 and 81.50.

USD/CHF

An attempt to push the USD/CHF higher ran into resistance at 0.8270. Since failing to hold any gains the pair looks to test the most recent all-time low at 0.8080. Any attempt to move the pair higher will likely encounter resistance at 0.8270 and 0.8385 from the falling trend line off the February high. Relative value sellers of the pair may also be lurking at 0.8550.

The Wild Card

AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar surged to a 30-year high after Australian Q2 CPI rose 0.9% on consensus forecasts of only 0.7%. There has been a big move higher in the AUD as traders scale back their expectations for an interest rate cut later this year. forex traders should note the next target for the AUD/USD is the big round number of 1.1100. Support is found at 1.1010 and 1.0890.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.