Month: March 2011

Written by FastBrokers House

Well there’s been alot of huffing and puffing, but when all said and done not a great deal of net change on the majors.

EUR/USD very marginally firmer. Up at 1.4107 from early 1.4090, but someway off session high 1.4149.  The euro bulls were pretty much in command early, triggering stops through 1.4125.  We’d already topped out though (with India notable seller around highs) when Fed’s Bullard stuck a dagger in the euro bulls’ backs with another dose of hawkish monetary rhetoric (see above)

Talk sell orders 1.4145/55, said to include Chinese interest.  Buy stops through 1.4160. Talk of large hedge fund sell order up at 1.4170/75.  Buy orders clustered 1.4050/60 and more 1.4000/20.  Stops below there and more through 1.3980.

USD/JPY up at 81.95 from early 81.70.  Pairing garnering some underpinning from firm US treasury yields.

Sell stops through 81.50.  On topside, sell orders 82.00/20, buy stops through 82.30.  Then reports  of China on the offer around 82.50.

AUD/USD down at 1.0235 from early 1.0250.  Rallied initially, but ran into decent seling from Asian central bank around the 1.0271 session high.  Fairly decent sell orders said to be lined up at 1.0300/20.   Also talk of 1.0350 barrier interest.

Cable unchanged on day at 1.6015, to the pip where it was when I started.  Pairing tried to rally, aided by buying from Reserve Bank of India in 1.6020’s, but Bullards’ comments put paid to that extending very far for now.  We got to 1.6042 before heading south again.

Cable has seen a small rally late in the session taking it back above 1.6000 again. EUR/GBP may hold the key to further cable moves with solid selling seen around .8820 but stops lurking not far above there. Ranges: Cable 1.5974/1.6015, EUR/GBP .8799/.8811.

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American Apparel (APP) CEO Dov Charney yesterday raised his stake in the company as his relationship with key lender Lion Capital is growing more tense, sources tell the New York Post. Lion Capital owns stock warrants that could dilute Charney’s equity stake to as low as 44%, if exercised. Currently, Lion is supportive of Charney and his efforts to turn around the company, sources say

By CountingPips.com

The US dollar has been mixed in forex trading today against most of the major currencies in afternoon of the the US session. The dollar has gained some ground today versus the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc while losing ground to the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar, according currency data by Oanda. The American currency is currently trading virtually unchanged against the euro and the British pound sterling from today’s opening rate at time of writing.

The US stock markets have had a winning session today with the Dow gaining by over 50 points, the Nasdaq increasing more than 15 points and the S&P 500 up by nearly 5 points.

In commodities, Oil traded slightly higher to $104.41 per barrel while gold futures are about unchanged at ounce.

Economic news out of the US today saw the latest consumer confidence report showed that confidence fell in March to a 63.4 score following a score of 72.0 in February, according to the latest survey by the Conference Board. The data was worse than market forecasts that were expecting the consumer confidence score to fall to 65.4. The decline breaks up five consecutive months of increases and reflected consumer worries over higher prices, including gas and food.

Economic news releases out of Europe today showed that the latest GDP report from the UK fell by 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. The data was slightly better than economic forecasts that were expecting the GDP to decline by 0.6 percent. On an annual basis, the fourth quarter GDP was 1.5 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

Also out of the UK was news that the current-account deficit reached 10.5 billion pounds in the fourth quarter of 2010 from an 8.7 billion pound deficit in the third quarter.

March 29 (Bloomberg) — Andrew Bosomworth, a fund manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the outlook for European Central Bank interest rates and Spanish debt. He speaks from Munich with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”

Nokia (NOK) has filed a further complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission, or ITC, alleging that Apple (AAPL) infringes additional Nokia patents in virtually all of its mobile phones, portable music players, tablets and computers. The seven Nokia patents in the new complaint relate to Nokia’s pioneering innovations that are now being used by Apple to create key features in its products in the areas of multi-tasking operating systems, data synchronization, positioning, call quality and the use of Bluetooth accessories. This second ITC complaint follows the initial determination in Nokia’s earlier ITC filing, announced by the ITC on Friday, March 25. Nokia does not agree with the ITC’s initial determination that there was no violation of Section 337 in that complaint and is waiting to see the full details of the ruling before deciding on the next steps in that case. In addition to the two ITC complaints, Nokia has filed cases on the same patents and others in Delaware, US and has further cases proceeding in Mannheim, Dusseldorf and the Federal Patent Court in Germany, the U.K. High Court in London and the District Court of the Hague in the Netherlands, some of which will come to trial in the next few months

March 29 (Bloomberg) — Bilal Hafeez, global head of foreign-exchange strategy at Deutsche Bank AG, talks about the outlook for the yen and euro. He speaks with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.”

This is what’s in the news for Tuesday, March 29th. Bloomberg reports that traders are betting that Infor and Golden Gate Capital’s $1.8B takeover for Lawson Software (LWSN) will be topped by a higher offer, likely from Oracle (ORCL)… Reuters reports that Rio Tinto (RIO) said it would go ahead with its $4B takeover offer for Riversdale Mining even if it ends up with a minority stake… the Financial Times reports that Wal-Mart (WMT) is set to defend itself at the Supreme Court in the world’s largest sex discrimination case, which has the potential to transform the future course of legal disputes between big business and U.S. workers, …and finally, the Wall Street Journal reports that shipments of Lenovo’s (LNVGY) new LePad tablet could be affected by tight supply of memory chips following Japan’s earthquake and tsunami.

Following the recent bullish session the euro saw against the Swedish krona, it now appears that the pair has reached its peak and may turn downward. Technical indicators are showing that a prolonged bearish correction is likely to occur, giving forex traders a great opportunity to open up sell positions at a great entry price.

We will be looking at the daily chart for EUR/SEK, provided by Forexyard. The technical indicators being examined are the Relative Strength Index, Stochastic Slow and Williams Percent Range.

1. The Relative Strength Index has already breached overbought territory and has turned downward. Traders can take this as a sign that there is a good chance that the pair is likely to move south.

2. The Stochastic Slow has formed a bearish cross right on the upper resistance line. This is a clear indication that the pair could see a downward correction in the very near future.

3. Finally, the Williams Percent Range has also broken into overbought territory and is pointing down. This lends further evidence to our initial claim that the pair is likely to turn bearish soon.

The last week saw the euro make fairly significant gains against the SEK, while it slowed down its recent bullish trend against the NOK. This was largely due to the likelihood that the euro-zone will raise interest rates next month. The prospect of a euro-zone interest rate hike seems to be overshadowing the recent renewal in sovereign debt worries that has plagued the region as of late and has caused investors to flock back to the 17-nation single currency.

Over the last week, the EUR/SEK pair has shot up close to 1200 pips, and is currently trading around the 8.9735 level. The heavy bullish behavior the EUR/NOK saw at the beginning of the month seems to have tapered off, and the pair was only able to gain about 200 pips over the last seven days. Currently the pair is trading at 7.8930.

Against the US dollar the Scandinavian currencies have been fairly steady since last week. Analysts attribute the inactivity to a lack of significant US economic news as of late. This is all likely to change starting tomorrow when the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure is released. The figure is one of the more significant US indicators, and is considered an accurate predictor of Friday’s all important Non-Farms payrolls figure.

At the moment, analysts are predicting a slight decline in the number of jobs added in the US since last month. If true, the Scandinavian currencies could capitalize on the news and see some short term gains against the dollar in the next few days. Against the euro, traders will want to pay attention to news regarding any future increase in interest rates. Confirmation of a rate hike is likely to lead to bearish week for the kroner.

By Russell Glaser

The dollar was off of its last week highs versus the majors as positive US economic data feeds into USD selling. The euro, pound, and Canadian dollar were all stronger versus the greenback as traders await economic data from both Britain and the US.

Today’s Economic Data Releases:

GBP – Current Account – 8:30 GMT
Expectations: -10.3B. Previous: -9.6B.

The pound has come off of last week’s high, after which sterling shed 5 cents on the US dollar. The declines in sterling may be overdone but momentum has yet to pick up. A better than expected current account release would help the pound recover. Initial resistance for the GBP/USD is located at 1.6050, followed by 1.6200. To the downside where momentum is pointing, yesterday’s low of 1.5930 should be supportive as the 100-day moving average comes in near this level. A breach of this level may target 1.5870 which is the 50% retracement from the December to March move.

USD – Conference Board Consumer Conference – 14:00 GMT
Expectations: 64.9. Previous: 70.4.

Yesterday’s stronger than expected US personal income and personal spending data is a positive sign for the US economy and fed into USD selling. A better than expected CB survey should extend yesterday’s trends and be a negative for the greenback. The USD/CAD has steadily declined and continued USD weakness could continue to push the pair lower. First support is found at 0.9730 with a target the swing low at 0.9666. Resistance is located at the 50-day moving average that comes in at 0.9830.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

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