Month: June 2010

By Fast Brokers – Gold is fluctuating around $1225/oz as investors decide whether to take the recent FX risk rally a step higher.  Gains in major dollar pairs were capped yesterday despite large gains in U.S. equities, meaning investors aren’t sold on the rally in the S&P since there was unsubstantial news and/or fundamentals backing a pop of that size.  However, investors will receive a wealth of data over the next two trading sessions, meaning the risk trade could be at a make or break point for the near-term.  We’ve got services PMI data from both the UK and U.S. on deck along with UK HPI and advance U.S. employment figures.  It will be interesting to see how gold behaves over the next 24 hours, particularly if gains in the risk trade accelerate.  Although gold has proven a worthy safe haven investment vehicle, the precious metal also tends to exhibit a negative correlation with the greenback during risk rallies.  Hence, gold may still be in a win-win position regardless of the outcome.

Technically speaking, gold faces technical barriers in the form of intraday and 5/17 highs.  Additionally, the psychological $1250/oz level should serve as a solid technical barrier should it be reached.  As for the downside, gold has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 6/1 and 5/28 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological $1200/oz area now becomes a technical cushion.

Present Price: $1222/ oz
Resistances: $1225.20/oz, $1227.63/oz, $1229.56/oz, $1232.22/oz, $1235.19/oz
Supports:  $1221.69/oz, $1219.16/oz, $1216.02/oz, $1212.52/oz, $1210.36/oz, $1208.18/oz
Psychological:  $1200/oz, $1250/oz

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Forex Yard – The EUR experienced a modest rally in early European trading today as positive economic data from the U.S and Euro-Zone lifted market sentiment. However, as the trading day progressed the common currency receded most of its gains against the USD as the single currency is still vulnerable to continued sovereign debt concerns. The Yen remains under selling pressure as investors await the results of Friday’s prime ministerial election.

The EUR is up at $1.2255 from $1.2236 and at ¥113.60 from ¥112.73. The Dollar is at ¥92.66 from ¥92.16 late Wednesday in New York. The Pound is at $1.4686 from $1.4649 after earlier rising as far as $1.4743. The Pound retreated after a disappointing release from the service sector PMI, coming lower than economists expected.

Optimism over the global economy rose ahead of today’s release of the ADP non farm employment data and the U.S. employment numbers Friday. The expectation is for improvement in both indicators to show improvement, pointing to a recovery in the U.S jobs market.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Fast Brokers – The Aussie has reversed course from Wednesday lows after Australia reported a surprise trade surplus, countering yesterday’s sluggish GDP reading.  Export demand held strong last month, countering fears of a slowdown in China with purchases of iron ore climbing.  Meanwhile, the Aussie also benefitted from a broad based risk rally since no news from the EU seems to be good news.  The S&P futures soared ahead of key U.S. employment data, placing the risk trade in a favorable position should U.S. employment improve.  On the other hand, downward pressures remain and the Aussie’s first step would be to overcome 5/28 highs.  Regardless, the solid trade balance data is a welcome development for the Aussie since building approvals and GDP disappointed earlier this week.  However, it is unlikely a trade surplus alone will make the RBA get aggressive again considering the headwinds blowing from the EU.  That being said, investors should continue to monitor conditions in the EU since fiscally trouble nations are still unstable.  Activity should pick up as the trading session progresses.  The UK will release HPI and services PMI data points followed by advance employment and services PMI figures from the U.S.  Hence, the trading week could close on a volatile note.

Technically speaking, the Aussie still faces multiple downtrend lines along with 5/28 and 5/18 highs.  As for the downside, the Aussie has technical cushions in the form of 6/2 and 5/25 lows.  Additionally, the psychological .823area could serve as a solid technical cushion should it be tested.

Price: .8477
Resistances:  .8503, .8535, .8556, .8586, .8614, .8636
Supports:  .8468, .8452, .8432, .8410, .8390, .8374, .8356
Psychological:  .85, .83,.80, May lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Hatoyama resignation rally carried on during the U.S. trading session as political uncertainty weighed on the yen across the board.  The yen may continue to exert a relative weakness over the near-term, or at least until the government decides upon a successor.  Considering July elections are around the corner, investor uncertainty may surround the USD/JPY for another month.  Meanwhile, it’s important that the government put the finishing touches on plans to reduce Japan’s debt load.  Ratings agencies are watching closely and if the government fails to follow through on its promises then Japan’s debt could be in line for another downgrade.  However, before we get ahead of ourselves, attention should focus back on the U.S. with key employment and PMI data on deck.  Also, conditions in the EU haven’t really changed, meaning investors should continue to pay close attention to the EU news wire for any new developments.  If uncertainty in the EU does peak again then the USD/JPY could drag since its unlikely that the yen has completely lost its safe haven status at this point in time.  Regardless, recent gains in the USD/JPY are encouraging and it will be interesting to see whether the currency pair can challenge May highs.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY still faces multiple downtrend lines along with intraday, 5/18 and 5/13 highs and psychological 92 level.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has technical supports in the form of multiple uptrend lines along with 6/1 and 5/26 lows.  Additionally, the highly psychological 90 level should serve as a solid technical support should it be tested.

Present Price: 92.21
Resistances: 92.25, 92.35., 92.58, 92.76, 92.92, 93.08
Supports:  92.11, 91.97, 91.80, 91.65, 91.53, 91.38, 91.13
Psychological:  .90, .92, May highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By FastBrokers – The Cable is consolidating following yesterday’s solid pop as the currency pair fluctuates between 1.46-1.48.  However, activity should pick back up again as the session progresses with UK nationwide HPI and services PMI data points on the way.  More solid UK data could help the Cable continue its upswing from May lows.  On the other hand, a setback in fundamentals could keep the Cable anchored below weekly highs.  The U.S. will also release its own services PMI data point along with advance employment data.  Hence, investors can expect a volatile end to the trading week.  While recent gains in the Cable and EUR/USD have been encouraging, downward near-term technical pressures remain and both currency pairs need a sizable confirmation to the topside to solidify a new uptrend.  Meanwhile, investors should also keep an eye on the EU news wire as usual since there hasn’t been a positive fundamental change in fiscally troubled nations to give us reason to discount the possibility of another negative development.  That being said, no news is good news and allows the Cable and EUR/USD to stabilize and gain back some lost ground due to short memory.

Technically speaking, the Cable has been able to build off of the base established from May lows and it will be interesting to see how long this pattern lasts.  The Cable has supports in the form of the psychological 1.45 level along with 5/28 lows.  As for the topside, the Cable still faces multiple downtrend lines due to the extent of its May crash.  The Cable also faces barriers in the form of 5/13 and 5/12 highs.  Additionally, the psychological 1.50 area could serve as a strong technical barrier should it be tested.

Present Price: 1.4681
Resistances: 1.4701, 1.4736, 1.4758, 1.4789, 1.4822, 1.4850
Supports: 1.4662, 1.4645, 1.4626, 1.4606, 1.4567, 1.4534, 1.4506
Psychological: 1.45, 1.50, May 2010 highs and lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD tested 1.23 today as the currency pair benefitted from a broad-based risk rally.  However, as of yet the EUR/USD hasn’t overcome any meaningful technical barriers despite today’s huge gains in U.S. equities.  Therefore, uncertainty continues to weigh on the F X markets and the EUR/USD will likely need a substantial psychological or fundamental development to turn the tide.  Unfortunately for the EUR/USD, the EU has little data on the wire today, meaning the currency pair will be in the hands of psychological forces along with America’s advance employment data.  The U.S. and UK will also release their respective services PMI figures, meaning the EUR/USD will likely just play along with its risk correlation.  However, investors should still keep an eye on the news wire since these days it is wise to expect the unexpected from European countries which faces extraordinary fiscal pressures.  Meanwhile, no news is good news and allows investor uncertainty to subside as the EUR/USD tries to build a base above 1.20.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces technical barriers in the form of mounting downtrend lines along with 6/1 and 5/28 highs.  Additionally, the 1.25 level could serve as a strong resistance should it be tested.  As for the downside, yesterday’s break below May lows could prove to be an important technical event for the near-term.  The EUR/USD has supports in the form of 6/1 lows and the highly psychological 1.20 area.

Present Price: 1.2285
Resistances: 1.2284, 1.2304, 1.2320, 1.2344, 1.2373, 1.2386, 1.2412
Supports:   1.2268, 1.2251, 1.2232, 1.2221, 1.2208, 1.2196, 1.2176
Psychological: June 2010 lows, March 2006 lows, 1.22, 1.20

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Market Analysis by Finexo.com

Upcoming Sessions (all times GMT)
• GBP    Nationwide HPI m/m (06:00)
• GBP  Services PMI (08:30)
• USD  ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15)
• USD  Unemployment Claims (12:30)
• USD  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (14:00)

EURUSD

Overall sentiments towards the EURUSD remain heavily bearish as the European single currency remains vulnerable to any signs that region’s debt crisis will spread to its banking system.

Yesterday, the US Dollar gained ground as better than expected data showed that pending home sales increased  by 6% in April. The EUR/USD pair continues to hold steady around the $1.2300 mark as investors await today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This number, generally considered a predictive figure for tomorrow’s high anticipated Non-Farm Employment Change, is expected to show an increase of 68K jobs in the private sector. Also out today, the Unemployment Claims for last week.

Support/Resistance 1.2244/1.2306

USDJPY

The Yen continued to fall against its major currency counterparts as speculations increased that Japan’s next prime minster will want a weaker currency. The Japanese currency dropped for a second day in a row against the greenback after Prime Minster Yukio Hatoyama announced his resignation.

While the ruling democrats are expected to vote on Friday for a new Prime Minister, sources already predict that the most likely successor is Finance Minister Noato Kan. Mr. Kan stunned markets earlier this year, by stating that he wanted the Japanese currency to depreciate more and that he heavily favored an exchange rate of 95 yen per dollar.

Support/Resistance 91.77 /92.33

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

Source: Forex Yard

The EUR traded relatively flat yesterday against the U.S. Dollar, but it continued to trade low against the British Pound, the EUR/GBP pair is currently trading at 0.8365, after crossing below 0.8400, and reaching as low as 0.8279. Although the pair slightly recovered during NY trading hours it is still signaling that the bearish momentum is not over yet.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Strongly Advanced Against the YEN

The Dollar gained strongly against the Japanese Yen, the USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 92.20. Investors’ faith in the yen declined after the Japanese prime minster resigned last night.

Versus other major counterparts, the U.S. Dollar remained fairly flat against the Eur as no major European news events were published yesterday. However a U.S. report about Pending Home Sales which came better than expected sent investors back to riskier assets such as the EUR which traded slightly higher during NY trading hours.
The USD traded lower against the Canadian Dollar in respond to interest rate rise a day earlier and a rally in commodities. USD/CAD traded 200 pips lower, currently trading at 1.0385.

Looking ahead, today traders are advised to follow reports published one hour before NY trading hours. Positive results could send investors to buying back riskier currencies. ADP Non-Farm Unemployment is expected at 12:15 GMT and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected at 14:00 GMT.

EUR – Investors’ Buy Euro Following U.S. Pending Home Sales

The Euro is slightly higher during early trading hours against the U.S. Dollar. The EUR regained back some of its recent losses after a report published yesterday by the U.S. showed better than expected Pending Homes Sales. The data improved investors’ confidence on economic recovery.

The Euro managed to strengthen against the Yen, in respond to the Japanese prime minister resignation, and following the Yen weakness against the USD. The Euro also regained back some of its losses after declining rapidly recent days against the British pound. The EUR/GBP crossed below 0.8400, and is currently trading at 0.8360. The pair is expected to decline further toward 0.8200.

Looking ahead, today traders are advised to follow European Retail sales report published at 09:00 GMT. Forecasts are for a 0.1% rise in retail sales, better results should support the EUR. An earlier report about Service PMI, publish by the UK, at 08:30 GMT could further support the British pound rally vases the EUR.

JPY – Investors Sold the YEN after Japanese Prime Minister Resigned

The Japanese YEN traded lower against most of its major counterparts yesterday following Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama resignation. The political uncertainty reduced the Yen’s safe heaven appeal. The Yen slid to 92.20 per Dollar from 91.44, yesterday’s open rate. The Yen fell to 113.36 per EUR in early trading hours, the uptrend is expected to continue during today’s trading session.

Looking ahead, today U.S. Unemployment and Manufacturing reports should dictate the currency market direction. Recently if such reports came lower than expected traders returned to safe heaven currencies such as the USD and the Japanese Yen. Recent events in Japan question the Yen role as a safe heaven currency. Therefore the Yen is expected to trade further lower against its major counterparts today.

OIL – Positive U.S. Economic reports lift Crude Oil price

Crude Oil price recovered substantially during NY trading hours. Better than expected Pending Home Sales report and strong Vehicles sales proved strong consumer demand. Following these reports and the rally in the equity markets improved Investors’ confidence about economic recovery.

Looking ahead to today, inventories report should be published at 15:00 GMT, data is expected to show a decline in inventories, this could support yesterday uptrend momentum. Traders are also advised to follow other macro reports published earlier, if data turns positive and investors are optimistic about recovery, crude prices will continue to rise. If data disappoint investors should expect a sharp decline in Oil price toward $70 per barrel.

Technical News

EUR/USD

There appears to be a bullish cross forming on the 4H chart’s Slow Stochastic, indicating that an upward correction is expected in the near future. However, almost all other oscillators are stuck in neutral territory, signaling that this pair may be less volatile than expected. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today

GBP/USD

It seems that the Cable has limited its bullish correction after peaking at the 1.4766 price level. And now, a bearish cross on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that the general downtrend might extend. Going short seems to be the preferable choice today

USD/JPY

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the weekly Chart’s RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy

USD/CHF

The typical range trading on the 4 hour chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. On the contrary, the daily chart is showing a moderate bearish momentum with diminishing strength. Forex traders are advised to wait for a clearer signal before entering the market with this pair

The Wild Card

GBP/AUD

There is still a bearish configuration on the 4H chart, indicating that the momentum is still down. The RSI is floating around 50, which supports the notion that there is still room to run. In the shorter time frame there is a bullish cross forming on the hourleis Slow Stochastic indicates that there might be a small bullish correction before the bearish move resumes. Forex traders can maximize profits by selling on highs and taking advantage of a currently bearish trend.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By eToro – The Euro again tested levels below 1.22 before rebounding slightly.  Pressure should remain on the Euro, and it should eventually breach support at 1.2150. Click here to read the full daily Review

Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

GBPUSD runs in a rising price channel on 4-hour chart. As long as the support of the lower boundary of the price channel holds, uptrend could be expected to continue and one more rise to 1.4800-1.4850 area is still possible. Key support is at 1.4427, only fall below this level could indicate that the bounce from 1.4230 has completed.

Daily Forex Forecast