Month: May 2010

By Fast Brokers – The Aussie has outperformed since hitting bottom on 5/25, popping back towards 5/24 highs in reaction to a late risk trade rally yesterday.  The Aussie is now trying to clear downtrend lines running through 5/20 and 5/19 highs in order to undergo a more substantial rally.  However, markets are still under pressure considering there hasn’t been any positive news emanating from the EU.  On the other hand, no news is good news at this point considering the downward pressure inflicted by Spain on Monday.  Australia was relatively light on the data wire again today, releasing a construction work figure which printed below analyst expectations.  While it shows that the RBA’s rate hikes may be having their intended impact, investors shouldn’t read too far into this figure for the time being.  Investors should also keep in mind that new vehicle sales shot higher last month.  Regardless, the RBA will be hard pressed to raise rates again next month considering all of the negative economic headwinds circling the globe at the moment.  The U.S. will dominate the data wire today with the release of DGO and new home sales figures.  However, attention will likely remain focused on the EU as investors look for any news regarding the union’s fiscal state.  Australia will release private CapEx tomorrow followed by U.S. Prelim GDP.  Hence, the markets may get active once again over the next 24-48 hours.

Technically speaking, the Aussie faces technical barriers in the form of multiple downtrend lines along with intraday and 5/21 highs.  As for the downside, the Aussie has technical cushions in the form of May 2010 and September 2009 lows.  Additionally, the psychological .80 area could serve as a solid technical cushion should it be tested.

Price: .8244
Resistances:  .8246, .8268, .8303, .8329, .8348, .8363
Supports:  .8224, .8205, .8176, .8150, .8123, .8101
Psychological:  .80, .83, May 2010 and September 2009 lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – Gold is gravitating higher, extending its solid rally from 5/21 lows and eclipsing its highly psychological $1200/oz level once again.  Strength in gold comes despite yesterday’s late bounce in the risk trading, showing that the precious metal is willing to flex its negative correlation with the dollar despite its status as a safe haven.  Speaking of safety, even though the Cable and EUR/USD managed to rally before hitting their previous May lows, the major dollar pairs are still under considerable pressure since uncertainty regarding the EU hasn’t changed.  Therefore, despite the calm, investors should keep an active eye on the news wire for another game-changing negative or positive development in the EU seems imminent.  However, gold’s correlation with the greenback is a bit unreliable at the moment, so investors should focus more on technical than correlative forces for the near-term.  The U.S. will highlight the data wire with DGO data followed by new home sales.  Considering how fragile situations are investors should be prepared for a spike in volatility.

Technically speaking, gold faces technical barriers in the form of 5/7 and 5/18 highs.  Additionally, the psychological $1250/oz level should serve as a solid technical barrier should it be reached.  As for the downside, gold has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with 5/25 and 5/21 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological $1200/oz area now becomes a technical cushion.

Present Price: $1203.60/ oz
Resistances: $1205.26/oz, $1208.07/oz, $1211.57/oz, $1215.69/oz, $1219.16/oz
Supports:  $1202.59/oz, $1199.91/oz, $1197.08/oz, $1194.24/oz, $1190.92/oz.
Psychological:  $1200/oz, $1250/oz

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The USD/JPY has popped back above its highly psychological 90 level after yesterday’s strong close in U.S. equities drove the risk trade higher across the board.  The USD/JPY is clearly in lock with the risk trade right now, meaning investors should keep an eye on the EUR/USD and Cable in regards to their ability to continue their consolidation and to build a bit of upward momentum.  However, considerable downward pressure remains considering the extent of last week’s pullback.  Hence, investors should monitor the EU news wire for any new developments regarding fiscal conditions in Greece and Spain.  Should another wave of negative psychological forces hit the risk trade this could drag the USD/JPY lower as investors head to the Yen as a safe haven.  Meanwhile, the data wire will focus on the U.S. with DGO and new home sales on the way.  Considering how demand for Japanese exports has ripened it wouldn’t be surprising to see some strong DGO numbers.  Solid U.S. data could boost the risk trade and vice versa.  Speaking of Japanese exports, Japan will release its trade balance data tomorrow followed by UK realized sales and U.S. prelim GDP.  Therefore, more emphasis could be placed on economic data over the next 24-48 hours unless there is a new psychological development in the EU.

Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces technical barriers in the form of multiple downtrend lines along with 5/24 highs and 5/20 highs.  As for the downside, the USD/JPY has technical supports in the form of 5/25 and 5/20 lows.  Additionally, the highly psychological 90 level could have a gravitational pull on the USD/JPY over the near-term.

Present Price: 90.38
Resistances: 90.42, 90.55, 90.64, 90.77., 90.88, 91.14
Supports:  90.30, 90.11, 89.99, 89.84, 89.73, 89.54, 89.34
Psychological:  .90, May and March lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The Cable managed to bottom out above May lows yesterday, a positive near-term technical development as the risk trade tries to settle following last week’s hefty downturn.  The EU data wire will be relatively quiet again today, leaving the FX markets up to psychological developments in the EU.  The U.S. will highlight the wire with DGO and new home sales figures.  However, the stability of the Cable and the risk trade as a whole hinges on the state of the EU and ability of governmental leaders to calm markets.  On the other hand, should investors receive another piece of bad news regarding Spain this could send the Cable on another leg to the downside.  The data wire will carry more weight tomorrow with the UK releasing CBI realized sales followed by U.S. prelim GDP and unemployment claims.  Also, UK nationwide HPI is due for a tentative release, though it likely won’t come until Friday or the beginning of next week.  Investors should keep an active eye on the news wires over the next 24 hours since psychological forces continue to move the markets.

Technically speaking, the Cable faces multiple downtrend lines along with 5/24 and 5/14 highs.  Additionally, the psychological 1.45 area could serve as a solid barrier should it be tested.  As for the downside, the Cable has support in the form of intraday and 5/20 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological 1.42 level could serve as a technical cushion if it’s reached.

Present Price: 1.4393
Resistances: 1.4409, 1.4443, 1.4468, 1.4498, 1.4521, 1.4543
Supports: 1.4362, 1.4326, 1.4301, 1.4265, 1.4232, 1.4200
Psychological: 1.42, 1.45, May 2010 and February 2009 lows

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD is consolidating above 1.23 after the currency pair managed to bounce yesterday before hitting previous May lows as the risk trade rallied across the board.  The OECD issued encouraging comments concerning the EU, downplaying the possibility of a double dip despite heightened investor uncertainty.  However, the Euro is still under considerable pressure, meaning it will be important to see the EUR/USD to continue its consolidation and avoid tripping below 5/19 levels.  German consumer climate data came in a bit below analyst estimates, as is to be expected considering present worries in the EU.  Attention now turns to U.S. DGO and new home sales data releases.  Should the U.S. data print better than expected this could help buoy the EUR/USD with investors gaining a bit more confidence in the risk trade.  The EU will be relatively quiet on the data wire tomorrow with German prelim CPI being the sole release.  Attention should remain focused on the U.S. with prelim GDP and weekly unemployment claims on the way.  However, investors should also keep their eyes on the EU news wire for it is wise to expect the unexpected considering we just received negative news regarding Spain on Monday.  Should EU fiscal worries intensify again this could negate any positive data we receive from the U.S.  Meanwhile, no news from the EU can be considered good news.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with intraday and 5/21 highs.  Additionally, the psychological 1.24 and 1.25 areas are now serving as technical barriers.  As for the downside, the EUR/USD has supports in the form of intraday and 5/19 lows.  Furthermore, the psychological 1.20 could serve as a solid cushion should it be tested.

Present Price: 1.2321
Resistances: 1.2341, 1.2369, 1.2383, 1.2431, 1.2456, 1.2474
Supports:   1.2318, 1.2304, 1.2280, 1.2268, 1.2239, 1.2208
Psychological: May 2010 lows, March 2006 lows, 1.24, 1.25, 1.20

(click chart to enlarge)

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: “On Schedule for a Very, Very Long Bear Market”

Robert Prechter discussed the recent global sell-off that has sent all major U.S. averages 10% below their 2010 highs with Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker host Aaron Task on May 20, 2010. Prechter says that the current climate shows that “we’re in a wave of recognition” where the fundamentals are catching up to the technicals and that it’s time to prepare for a “long way down.”

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Market Analysis by Finexo.com

Upcoming Sessions (all times GMT)
• USD Durable Goods Orders (12:30)
• USD New Homes Sales (14:00)

With North Korea pushing the world closer towards another war, causing global stock indexes to sink and fueling risk selling, the US swiftly responded to ease the tension. However, this time around it wasn’t with tanks or F-16 fighter jets, but with the strength of its stock markets. US indexes managed to recover from its huge prior losses, and return to near changed levels – fueling risk appetite amongst Forex traders.

Up ahead, currency traders will want to watch European stock indexes for a similar sign of recovery. The US economy will be today’s primary focus as all significant Housing and Manufacturing figured will be released.

EURUSD
After slipping to hit a new fresh-intraday low, the EUR/USD managed to reverse it’s downwards trend and recover.  The key for the EURUSD today is whether the pair will hold above the 1.2250 level. If the pair slips below this key technical level, it could very well push invertors to quickly return to selling the EUR – wiping out yesterday’s entire positive move.
Support/Resistance 1.2250/1.2387

GOLD
Gold traded above 1200, as the precious metal continued to attract buyers by demonstrating that it can rally both rising in risk appetite and in risk aversion markets. As such, traders will want to be watching to see whether the $1200 level holds and whether rising demand in the metal continues. Below 1200, Gold also continues to have very solid support at 1185.
Support/Resistance 1185,1200/1225,1250

Forex Market Review & Analysis by Finexo.com

Disclaimer: Trading the foreign exchange (Forex) carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information and opinions contained on this website are to be used for general informational purposes only and do not consitute investment advice.

By Russell Glaser – Spot crude oil prices managed to hold onto gains yesterday and continue to add to them despite fiscal problems in Europe. The rise in price comes after yesterday’s heavy price volatility and weakness in equities that drove the price of spot crude oil tentatively lower to a significant support line.

Spot crude oil is currently trading at $70.50, up from an opening day price of $69.69. Yesterday the price fell to a low of $67.13, close to a significant technical support level at $67.00.

Driving prices lower at the beginning of the day was a drop in equities and increasing tensions on the North Korean Peninsula. This helped to strengthen the dollar and yen, two currencies that typically appreciate during times of low risk taking.

The Dow Jones Industrials was significantly lower by almost 300 points at the beginning of the New York trading session, but the Dow came back with a 200 point rally following the release of a better than expected U.S. consumer confidence. The rebound in stocks had a positive affect on spot crude oil trading and helped to pull spot crude oil prices off their daily lows.

Spot crude oil traders will be looking for an excuse to bid up spot crude oil prices, and this may come from today’s release of the U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders. Positive numbers from the U.S. economy, along with an improvement in global equities could send spot crude oil prices towards the next resistance level of $72.50. Should prices fail to rally, the next support line rests just below $69.00.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Anton Eljwizat – The volatile of the USD/CHF pair continues to be affected by the volatile forex market. The last three weeks has seen a lot of bullish strength in the USD/CHF pair. However, as I demonstrated below, it seems that the pair’s bullish run may have run out of steam, and a bearish correction could be underway soon. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage and at a great entry price.

• Below is the daily chart of the USD/CHF currency pair.

• The technical indicators that are used are the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Slow Stochastic and MACD.

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the overbought territory, signaling downward pressure.

• Point 4: The MACD indicates an impending bearish cross, which may signal a downward movement is going to occur in the near future.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Russell Glaser – Rising equities in Europe have helped to support the EUR during the European trading session. While the gains for the EUR have been limited, the positive momentum from yesterday’s U.S. trading session has carried over into today’s trading.

The EUR/USD is trading higher at 1.2325 after opening the day at 1.4386. The EUR/USD upward movement appears to have been limited by the resistance level at 1.2340. The GBP/USD is trading up at 1.4414 from an opening day price of 1.4386. The USD/JPY is unchanged at 90.30.

Equities have continued to rise since yesterday’s volatile New York Trading session. The Dow Jones Industrials was significantly lower by almost 300 points at the beginning of trading, but the Dow came back with a 200 point rally following the release of better than expected U.S. consumer confidence number. The positive momentum has continued into today’s European trading session as the DAX is up 1.9% while the FTSE 100 is up more than 2%.

Traders will be looking for an excuse to trade the EUR/USD lower, and that may come from today’s release of the U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders. Positive numbers from the U.S. economy, along with staunch negative sentiment against the EUR could send the EUR/USD below the support line of 1.2140, towards the psychological support level of 1.2000.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.