Month: May 2010

Source: Forex Yard

After several days on which the Euro saw recovery signals, Fitch Ratings announced that it downgrades Spain’s credit rating. The rating company explained that Spain’s large debts were the catalysts for this decision. As a result the Euro promptly dropped on all fronts, and erased its profits. Could it drop further?

Economic News

USD – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data Expected On Friday

The dollar continued to strengthen against the most of the major currencies during last week’s trading session. The Dollar about 350 pips vs. the Euro, and the EUR/USD pair is currently trading near the 1.2300 level. The Dollar strengthened against the Yen as well.

The positive signals from the U.S. economy combined with the high-uncertainty regarding the Euro-Zone continue to boost the Dollar. The purchases of Existing Home Sales in the U.S. rose by 5.77M in April, beating expectations for a 5.62 rise. Another positive data of the U.S. housing sector showed that the sales of New Home have jumped to a two-year high in April. The New Home Sales report rose by 504K in April, beating expectations for a 425K rise as well. In addition, the recovery signals of the U.S. economy were fairly observed in the Consumer Confidence survey for May. The survey rose to 63.3 points, its highest level since March 2008. This reflects optimism among U.S. residents regarding their financial outlook. In the long-run, such optimism usually leads to an economic widening, and to an appreciation of the local currency.

As for the week ahead, many interesting publications are expected from the U.S. economy. However the report that tends to hold the greatest impact over the market is the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls which is expected on Friday. The Non-Farm Payrolls is considered to be the leading employment data in the U.S. As a result its publication usually has an immense impact on the market and on the Dollar in particular. Traders should also follow the ADP forecast which is expected on Wednesday, as investors tend to adjust their positions according to this forecast.

EUR – Euro Remains under Pressure As Fitch Ratings Downgraded Spain’s Credit Rating

The Euro weakened against most of its major counterparts during last week’s trading, yet managed to recover most of its losses.

The uncertainty regarding the Euro-Zone continues to grow, as Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s credit by one notch to AA+ from AAA. The credit downgrade took place due to concerns that the nation’s debt burden will weigh on economic growth. The rating company added that the downgrade reflects Fitch’s assessment that the process of adjustment to a lower level of private sector and external indebtedness will materially reduce the rate of growth of the Spanish economy over the medium term. As the uncertainty regarding the Euro-Zone’s ability to recover from the debt crisis continues, the Euro is likely to see further devaluation. The uncertainty also leads to risk-aversion in the market, and turns investors to look for safer assets, such as the Dollar and the Yen.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to remain updated on every development regarding the Euro-Zone debt crisis. This is still that most important issue in the market, and every announcement on this matter is likely to have a large impact on the Euro. Traders should also follow the leading economic publications from the Euro-Zone, especially the German indicators.

JPY – Political Turmoil to Weaken the Yen

The Yen dropped against most of the major currencies during last week’s trading session. The Yen dropped about 200 pips vs. the Dollar, and about 400 pips against the Pound.

The main reason for the Yen’s bearish trend seems to be due to a political turmoil in Japan. A recent survey showed that more than half of the Japanese citizens want Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to resign. This has led to speculations that the Yen’s safe-haven appeal will be damaged, and as a result will weaken the currency. The Japanese coalition could be at risk, especially after the Social Democratic Party has left the government, following Hatoyama decision to dismiss its only Cabinet minister.

As for this week, traders are advised to follow all the developments regarding the Japanese politics. It currently seems that as long that the uncertainty regarding the Japanese leadership remains, the Yen could drop further against the major currencies, especially the Dollar and the Pound.

OIL – Crude Oil Remain Stable around $74 a Barrel

Crude oil corrected some of its losses from the past few weeks. After dropping to $67 a barrel, crude saw a sharp rise, and a barrel of crude oil is currently traded around $74.

Crude oil’s rise came as a result of the positive data from the U.S. economy, especially the Consumer Confidence that rose to its highest level since March 2008. The U.S. economy is the largest energy consumer in the world, and thus such a positive indication has instantly boosted crude oil prices. In addition, the Euro’s recovery from last week also supported oil prices. Crude oil is traded in Dollars, and whenever the Euro strengthens vs. the Dollar, crude oil tends to rise as a result.

Looking ahead to this week, traders are advised to follow the leading publications from the U.S. and the Euro-Zone. Special attention should be given to U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release which is expected on Friday. This report is considered to be the leading indicator of the U.S. employment condition, and its result tends to have an instant impact on crude oil prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

While most indicators are currently floating in neutral territory with the pair currently range trading between 1.2284 and 1.2330, the hourly RSI is floating near the oversold territory indicating that an upward correction may take place later today. Going long with tight stops may be advised

GBP/USD

The daily RSI is floating in the oversold territory while a bullish cross is evident on the 2 hour MACD indicating an imminent upward movement might take place later today. Going long for today may be a good choice for today.

USD/JPY

The technical indicators on this pair don’t seem to be giving off much indication of direction. However, the pair is range-trading in a bullish channel and has just touched topped a recent peak, suggesting that the price may experience a downturn as it continues floating within this range. Buying on lows and selling on highs within this range may be a good choice for the rest of this week.

USD/CHF

This pair has just witnessed a bearish cross form on the 4-hour Stochastic (slow) and may soon move in a downward direction. The daily RSI also has the pair just about to exit the over-bought territory, suggesting downward pressure. Going short on this pair would probably be the best strategy in today’s trading.

The Wild Card

GOLD

It seems as though a new bullish cross has formed on the 4-hour Stochastic (slow) for the price of Gold. This may indicate that an upward price movement is imminent. The daily MACD/OsMA also shows a bullish cross, supporting the notion that upward pressure exists on this commodity at the technical level. Forex traders don’t want to miss out on a possible opportunity to make fast profits by jumping in on this predictable price movement in one of the world’s most exciting and tradable commodities.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

GBPUSD might be forming a cycle top at 1.4609 level on 4-hour chart and the fall from 1.4609 could possibly be resumption of downtrend from 1.5522 (Apr 15 high). Another fall to test 1.4230 would more likely be seen later today, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of downtrend. Resistance is at 1.4609, only rise above this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation is underway.

Forex Signals

By CountingPips.com

The latest COT data out on Friday showed that futures speculators slightly decreased their long bets for the U.S. dollar against the euro and British pound as of May 25th, according to the Commitments of Traders (COT) data released by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Non-commercial futures positions, those taken by hedge funds and large speculators, were net short the euro against the U.S. dollar by 106,736 contracts following net short bets of 107,143 contracts last week. The net short euro positions have now decreased for two straight weeks after being net short the euro by a record high of 113,890 contracts on May 11th.

The COT report is published every Friday by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, where as a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are expecting that currency to fall against the dollar and net longs expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

Other major currencies net short in the CME futures market against the dollar this week were the British pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc while the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Mexican peso and New Zealand dollar all had a net long amount of contracts.

The British Pound Sterling net shorts edged lower to 75,079 contracts after a total of 76,745 net short contracts last week and reverses four straight weeks of increased shorts. The Swiss franc net short positions decreased to 12,619 contracts after 14,558 net shorts last week while the Japanese yen short positions dropped to 10,238 contracts as of May 25th after registering 34,289 net short contracts on May 18th.

The Australian dollar futures positions were net long by 19,523 contracts as of May 25th, a decrease in long positions after last week totaling net long 38,380 contracts. Long contracts for the Aussie have now fallen for six weeks in a row after reaching a high of 80,674 long contracts on April 13th.

Canadian dollar positions have also declined for a sixth straight week and were net long by 23,872 contracts after being 44,885 net long last week. The New Zealand dollar net longs fell to 7,662 this week after last week being net long by 12,553 contracts.

The Mexican peso long contracts fell for the week from 35,702 long contracts last week to 28,857 longs this week. This marked the sixth straight declining week in longs for the peso after registering a high of 112,226 long contracts on April 13th.

COT Data Summary (vs. the US Dollar) May 25, 2010:

Euro net shorts at -106,736 from -107,143 contracts on May 18th

British Pound net shorts decrease  to   -75,079 from -76,745 contracts on May 18th

Swiss Franc net shorts at -12,619 from -14,558 contracts on May 18th

Canadian Dollar net longs decrease to 23,872 from 44,885 contracts on May 18th

Australian Dollar net longs decrease to 19,523 from 38,380 contracts on May 18th

New Zealand Dollar net longs decrease to 7,662 from 12,553 contracts on May 18th

Mexican Peso net longs decrease to 28,857 from 35,702 contracts on May 18th

Japanese Yen net shorts decrease to -10,238 from -34,289 contracts on May 18th

Commitment of Traders CME futures data

EURUSD remains in downtrend and the price action from 1.2144 is more likely consolidation of downtrend. Rang trading between 1.2144 and 1.2671 is expected to continue next week. Support is at 1.2144, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 1.5144 has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.1300 area. Resistance is at 1.2671, above this level could bring price back to test 1.3000 key resistance.

For long term analysis, EURUSD broke below 1.2329 (Oct 28, 2008 low), suggesting deeper decline towards 1.13000 area. Only rise above 1.3000 could trigger another rise to 1.5000 area.

Weekly Forex Analysis

By GCI Forex Research

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)

€

The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2275 level and was capped around the $1.2450 level.  Liquidity was reduced today as some U.S. trading desks emptied early on account of the holiday weekend in the U.S.  Data released in the U.S. today saw April personal income move higher to 0.4% while April personal spending fell to 0.0%.  Also, the April PCE deflator was up 2.0% y/y while PCE core readings came in at 0.1% m/m and 1.2% y/y.  Other data saw the Macy Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decline to 59.7 from the prior reading of 63.8.  Finally, the final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment indicator ticked higher to 73.6 from the prior 73.3 level.  The Federal Reserve will offer US$ 1 billion of 14-day deposits in an auction scheduled for 14 June, a tool the Fed will attempt to use to tighten credit by mopping up excess liquidity from the banking system.  Some traders expressed optimism after it was reported consumer delinquency rates are declining at U.S. banks and retailers.  In European news, sentiment continued to weaken in the eurozone after ratings agency Fitch downgraded Spain’s credit rating to AA+ from AAA.  Spain had held Fitch’s top rating since 2003 and Standard & Poor’s reduced its rating of Spain to AA on 28 April.  Earlier this week, a Spanish regional savings bank failed and four others applied for regulatory permission to tie-up.  European Central Bank member Weber said a bank tax would be an “inferior instrument.” ECB member Bini Smaghi said the European Union will do “all that is needed” to defend the European Union and said there are “no alternatives” to fiscal consolidation.  German data saw the April import price index up 2.0% m/m and 7.9% y/y.  Also, French April total jobseekers increased to 2.677 million.  Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.2620 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥90.60 level and was capped around the ¥91.40 level.  Bank of Japan earned a profit for the first time in three years in fiscal year 2009, with income coming in at ¥367.1 billion.  Finance minister Kan reported he will try to stimulate employment that is “crucial” to overcoming price declines.  Data released in Japan overnight saw April household spending off 0.7% y/y while the April jobless rate ticked higher to 5.1%.  April retail trade was up 0.5% m/m and 4.9% y/y while May Tokyo-area consumer price inflation was off 1.4% y/y with the ex-food and energy component off 1.4% y/y.  Also, April national consumer price inflation was off 1.2% y/y with the ex-food and energy measure off 1.6% y/y.  Collectively, these data evidence a Japanese economy that is weakening and a national consumer price index that is becoming more deflationary.  BoJ will continue to be pressured by the government to ease policy further.  The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.28% to close at ¥9,762.98.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥96.85 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥111.35 level and was capped around the ¥113.65 level.  The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥130.85 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥78.20 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8315 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8312.   People’s Bank of China said China should develop more products denominated in gold to help internationalize the yuan.  The State Administration of Foreign Exchange this week reported Europe will remain a major investment market for China, countering speculation China would reduce its euro-denominated holdings.  People’s Bank of China this week increased interest rates on three-month bills for a second consecutive auction, the latest evidence the central bank is absorbing excess liquidity at higher interest rates.

£

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4435 level and was capped around the $1.4610 level.  Data to be released on Sunday evening include the May Hometrack housing survey. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen called for ratings agencies to have less influence and said U.K. economic growth prospects are weak now.  Bank of England will expand its long-term funding mechanism next month and will incorporate a two-tier auction system that accepts a wider array of collateral to address stresses in the financial system.  Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne this week reported the new Cameron government hopes to decrease fiscal spending by at least £6 billion in what would be an abrupt shift from the policies of former Prime Minister Brown.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4110 level.  The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the £0.8545 level and was supported around the £0.8445 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1595 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1480 level.  Data released in Switzerland today saw the April trade balance increase to CHF 2.02 billion from the revised prior reading of CHF 1.69 billion while the May KOF Swiss leading indicator improved to 2.16 from the prior reading of 2.05.  Swiss National Bank member Leuthard said Switzerland wants a stable euro.  U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1110 level.  The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.4305 level while the British pound lost ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around the CHF 1.6685 level.

Forex Daily Market Commentary provided by GCI Financial Ltd.

GCI Financial Ltd (”GCI”) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (”Forex”) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (”CFDs”) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.

DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

By Russell Glaser – Spot crude oil prices jumped to a two week high on Thursday following a Chinese commitment to European investments, in particular European debt instruments. This propelled traders into riskier investments such as commodities while selling the dollar. Markets have shrugged off most recent negative economic data as this was the case yesterday.

The price of spot crude oil rose to $75.39, following an opening price of $71.50. Spot crude oil trading has risen 9% over the past 3 days.

The rise in prices comes on the heels of a sharp $20 decline following fresh worries over the solvency issues surrounding Greece, Portugal, and Spain.

Yesterday’s gains in spot crude oil trading were driven by comments from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). The agency denied reports that it is reducing its holdings of European debt. Comments from SAFE also helped to support the euro as the EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.2393. The price of spot crude oil typically trades in a negative correlation with the dollar. As the dollar weakens, spot crude oil prices rise.

Spot crude oil prices could continue to increase upon further signs of economic improvement. Yesterday’s downward revision of 1st quarter U.S. GDP did little to halt spot crude oil bulls.

Next week’s U.S. Non Farm Payrolls report will provide further insight as to where the economic recovery stands. Positive results will likely mean spot crude oil prices rising to the $80 level.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Anton Eljwizat – The pair has recorded much bullish behavior yesterday. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, as I demonstrate below, the 4-hour chart signals that a bearish reversal is imminent, and the cross may tumble 40-110 pips during the day. Traders are strongly advised to take advantage of the trend at an early stage.

• The chart below is the 4-hour GBP/JPY chart by ForexYard.

• The technical indicators used are the Slow Stochastic, MACD, and Relative Strength Index (RSI).

• Point 1: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 2: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure.

• Point 3: The MACD indicates an impending bearish cross, which may signal a downward movement is going to occur in the near future.

GBP/JPY 4-Hour Chart

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Forex Yard – The EUR/USD has maintained its strength during the European trading session as the pair has broken above the 1.2400 resistance level that held the currency pair in check. Also rising this afternoon has been the Canadian dollar. Commodities are also trading higher.

Strengthening of EUR/USD comes after comments from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). The agency denied reports that it is reducing its holdings of European debt. The pair is currently trading at 1.2405 from an opening day price of 1.2297.

The USD/CAD has also moved significantly lower over the last three days. The strengthening of the Canadian dollar follows estimates that the Bank of Canada will be the first G7 nation to raise interest rates. The bank will meet to decide future monetary policy for Canada on June 1st.

Commodities have also gotten a boost. A weaker dollar has helped spot crude oil to climb to $75.30, after opening the day at $74.64. Spot crude oil trading has risen 9% over the past 3 days.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The EUR rallied versus the USD yesterday as U.S equities surged and China denied reports it is contemplating a reduction in its European bond holdings. But can the EUR maintain its gains heading to next week?

Economic News

USD – USD Declines As Risk Taking Returns

The USD declined against the EUR Thursday as market sentiments improved and U.S stocks showed a 2.5% gain. Growth tied currencies benefited the most from the improved sentiment Thursday as investors shifted away from the safety of the USD and JPY with the Australian Dollar shooting up 3.5% and the Canadian Dollar soaring nearly 2% against the greenback.

U.S growth data released Thursday showed that the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the drop was lower than expected. The GDP data also came below expectations, however, it still showed that the U.S economy expanded last quarter. Despite falling short of expectations, the data still indicated the U.S. is on the path toward a sustainable recovery and is unlikely be hurt by Euro-Zone debt issues.

EUR – EUR Rallies as Investor Confidence Improves

The EUR rallied Thursday after nearing a four-year low against the Dollar overnight, after China denied rumors it was reviewing its holdings of Euro-zone debt. The EUR gained 1.6% to $1.2367 at closing time in New York, from $1.2178 Wednesday. It bought 112.62 Yen after touching 108.84 on May 25th, a nine year low.

While short term investor sentiment seems to have improved, and it looks like the European debt crisis is unlikely to spread outside the Euro-zone, recovery concerns linger. Both credit risk, as well as the needed austerity measures and their implications on the regions recovery are still cause for concern. Furthermore, it is unlikely the ECB will raise interest rates in the near future which puts further pressure on the EUR.

JPY – Yen Falls As Investors Turn Away From Safe Havens

The Yen dropped against all of its most-traded counterparts as gains in stocks and commodities spurred demand for growth-linked assets, turning investors away from the safe haven USD and JPY.

Growth tied currencies such as the AUD and NZD benefited greatly from this surge, with The Australian dollar heading for its first weekly advance in more than a month. The Australian Dollar advanced 3.5% as Asian equities extended a global rally, boosting demand for higher- yielding assets.

Crude Oil – Crude Soars As Risk Taking Returns

Crude futures rallied to a two week high Thursday as the EUR appreciated against the USD and global equity markets soared. Light, sweet crude for July delivery settled $3.04, or 4.3%, higher at $74.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Spot Crude is currently trading at $75.30 a barrel.

Futures have risen 8.4% over the last two days as outlook for the debt crises in Greece and Spain began to look less dire for the world economic recovery, supporting commodities and growth tied currencies. Oil prices rallied after China denied a report that it is considering a reduction in its European bond holdings and following the release of U.S data which showed that the world’s largest economy is on the path to recovery, which boosted demand expectations.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Most technical indicators show the pair currently trading in neutral territory, indicating that no major price shifts are expected in the immediate future. The exception is the Stochastic Slow on the hourly chart, which shows the pair approaching oversold territory. Still, traders are advised to take a wait and see approach today, as no definite trend is known.

GBP/USD

The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart indicates that the pair is trading well into overbought territory, indicating that a bearish correction may be imminent. This theory is supported by the Bollinger Bands on the 8-hour chart. Traders are advised to go short on this pair today.

USD/JPY

The Stochastic Slow on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish cross occurring, indicating that this pair may see a downward correction in the near future. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the 2-hour chart, which shows the pair trading well into overbought territory. Traders are advised to go short with tight stops today.

USD/CHF

Most technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no major price shifts are expected in the near future. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart shows the pair trading well into overbought territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach today, but keep an eye out for any bearish trends.

The Wild Card

S&P 500

The Stochastic Slow on the 4-hour chart indicates that the CFD is trading well in overbought territory. This typically means a bearish correction could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the 2-hour chart. CFD traders are advised to go short with tight stops today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Being supported by 1.2144 previous low, EURUSD bounced from 1.2153, taking price back to a trading range between1.2144 and 1.2671. Lengthier sideways consolidation in the range is expected in next several days. As long as 1.2671 resistance holds, another fall to 1.1800 is still possible and a breakdown below 1.2144 could signal resumption of downtrend.

Daily Forex Signals