Month: November 2009

By CountingPips.com

The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls employment report for October came in worse than expected and the unemployment rate bumped up to a 26-year high.  The Department of Labor nonfarm payrolls report showed that U.S. payrolls shed 190,000 jobs in October, surpassing market forecasts expecting an approximately 175,000 jobs lost and marking the twenty-second straight month that companies have shed workers. September’s employment decline was revised from the original report of 263,000 jobs lost down to a 216,000 decline. The unemployment rate moved up from 9.8 percent in September to 10.2 percent last month and leveled the rate at its highest standing since June 1983.

The decline in jobs was spread throughout most economic sectors with the exceptions of the education & health services sector which saw 45,000 jobs created and the professional & business services sector which added 18,000 jobs. The goods-producing sector was the hardest hit by job losses for the month as this sector lost 129,000 total jobs with the manufacturing sector cutting 61,000 jobs and the construction sector losing 62,000 jobs. The service-providing sector lost 61,000 jobs total with retail trade cutting 40,000 workers and leisure & hospitality shedding 37,000 workers for the month. Government hiring was flat for the month.

US Dollar is mixed in forex trading today.

The U.S. dollar has been mostly lower today in forex trading against the other major currencies but following the government jobs report we have started to see a bit of a pullback and some dollar strength. Overall at 10:35 am in the US trading session, the dollar has gained versus the British pound and Canadian dollar while falling versus the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen. Against the euro and Swiss franc, the dollar is currently trading about unchanged from today’s opening exchange rates.

The US stock markets, meanwhile, have dipped into negative territory this morning with the Dow Jones falling by over 30 points, the Nasdaq decreasing over 5 points and the S&P 500 declining by over 3 points at the time of writing.  Oil has traded lower to under $79 per barrel while gold has advanced by around $9.00 to trading around the $1097.00 per ounce level.

USD/JPY Chart – The US Dollar falling sharply today versus the Japanese Yen in forex trading action today.

By Adam Hewison – A Quick Update on the Crude Oil Market

I was just looking at the charts and they are beginning to look very, very bullish. The formation I show you in today’s video is a classic continuation pattern to the upside. This pattern also confirms a Fibonacci target number we are looking at.

This video is short and to the point and I think it will get you thinking about this energy market.

Watch the New Crude Video Here…

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. After you watch the movie, please feel free to comment on blog.

All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

By Yan Peters – Just before the Non-Farm Payrolls publication the USD/TRY breaks a very strong support level, and aims to drop to the 1.4750 level and even the 1.4650 level. read below for more information.

• The chart below is the USD/TRY 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• The technical indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, the Slow Stochastic, the MACD/OsMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• A negative slope of the Slow Stochastic indicates that the downtrend has a lot of momentum. This indicates that the trend is likely to continue.
• The MACD is proceeding with its freefall, and has dropped below the 0.0 line. For as long that the MACD continues to slide, the pair is likely to drop as well.
• The RSI is providing mixed results at the moment. Although the RSI remains at the over-sold zone, it has recently pointed up. If the RSI will reach above the 30 line, it should be a warning for a trend reversal.
• As can be seen on the chart, the pair has breached through the 1.4820 support level. It is now on its way to the next support level, located at the 1.4750 price. If the pair will manage to cross this level again, it has the potential to reach the 1.4650 level, which is the strongest support level at the moment.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report. This indicator always produces extreme market volatility in the major currency pairs. Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following this vital announcement at 13:30 GMT.

Economic News

USD – Non-Farm Employment Change on Tap

The Dollar was little changed against most of its major counterparts during yesterday’s trading session, a day ahead of a key government jobs report that will shed light on the health of the U.S. economy. By yesterday’s close, the USD fell slightly against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.4873. The Dollar experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6604. The USD did see some bullishness as well as it gained over 50 points against the JPY and closed at 90.67.

The greenback fell in the prior session after the Federal Reserve kept Interest Rates at record lows and signaled they were likely to stay there for some time to come. It also lost more ground on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded an optimistic note about a 2010 recovery and hinted at a slow-motion exit strategy for some emergency stimulus measures.

Another leading indicator released yesterday was U.S. Unemployment Claims. This number handedly beat last week’s result, but failed to provide strength to the Dollar as investors await key data to be released today, in order to implement their trading strategies.

Today’s Non- Farm Employment Change release is expected to have a strong impact on the U.S currency. Any result could be a surprise, and the Dollar could go either way as a result. In any case, traders are unsure how the market will react to today’s data. A weak report could feed risk aversion, boost Treasuries and actually aid the U.S Dollar. Then again, a better than expected result might be seen as a sign of relative U.S. economic strength, and lift the Dollar. Or it could also encourage risk-taking and aid commodities and higher-yielding currencies at the Dollar’s expense.

EUR – EUR Rises on ECB President Trichet’s Comments

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the Japanese Yen during yesterday trading session, to trade above 1.3495 amid a broad sell-off in the JPY. The European currency finished around 100 pips higher against the CHF to finish yesterday’s trading session at the 151.15 level.

The EUR got a boost after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet presented an optimistic tone on Euro-Zone growth, saying the economy will recover next year.

Both the ECB and the Bank of England left Interest Rates unchanged on Thursday. The decisions came after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held borrowing costs near zero percent, and kept its commitment to low rates for an extended period.

Looking ahead to today, the most important financial indicator scheduled to be released from Europe is the German Factory Orders. Analysts are forecasting this figure to slightly decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to bolster the EUR in the short-term.

JPY – JPY Free Fall Continues

The Japanese Yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against most of its currency crosses. The JPY fell against the EUR and closed at 1.3495, while the GBP/JPY cross rose to around 155.50.

The JPY’s trends will be affected by the rallies of its primary currency pairs today. It seems that the USD and EUR are expected to continue a volatile trading session today, especially against the Japanese currency. Traders should keep a close look on the news coming from the U.S. and Europe as these economies will be the deciding factors in the JPY’s movement today, especially the Non- Farm Employment Change at 13:30 GMT. It is also advisable for traders to follow any unexpected comments coming from key Japanese governmental figures, as this is also likely to lead to further JPY volatility.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Stabilizes Near $80 a Barrel

Oil fell to below $80 a barrel on Thursday, as doubts about a recovery in Oil demand outweighed positive economic signals. Oil dropped to an intra-day low of $79.30 a barrel before rebounding to the settlement level of 79.90, which was little changed compared with the previous session.

As for today, traders should pay close attention to the U.S Non- Farm Employment Change report, as it has tended to have a large impact on Crude Oil’s prices recently, especially for the short-term.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The pair is currently going through a 2-day winning streak, and it currently stands at the 1.4875 level. The RSI of the 4-hour chart shows the cross floating in the overbought territory, signaling that a downward correction is imminent. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD cross has gone up by about 250 pips since Tuesday and this trend may continue, as the pair continues to rise higher on the chart 1-hour Bollinger bands. However, the MACD of the 4-hpour chart indicates that the cross has run out of steam, and that a bearish correction is imminent. Going short at an early stage seems to be the right choice for Friday’s trading.

USD/JPY

The technical indicators for this pair seem to be showing misleading signals. On the one hand, the RSI of the weekly chart shows the pair sitting in the oversold territory. On the other hand, the recent cross above the 80 mark on the Slow Stochastic of the 4-hour chart indicates that a bearish correction may be imminent. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer seems to be the right choice today.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF cross has been range trading between the 1.0125 and 1.0265 levels over the past week. The MACD of the weekly mark supports a downward move for today. Going short with tight stops could bring you big returns today, as this week’s trading comes to and end.

The Wild Card – Crude Oil

Crude Oil has gone dramatically higher in the past week, and currently stands at the $80.12 mark. The recent bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic of the weekly chart indicates that a bearish correction is imminent today. Entering the pair when the downward breach occurs may turn out to pay off for forex traders today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Asia-Pacific

Australian Trade deficit surprises for the better falling to -1849M

Speech by RBA governor

Europe

BoE rate decision unchanged at 0.5%

ECB rate decision unchanged at 1%

UK NIESR GDP estimate at -0.4%

Swiss CPI at -0.8% suppressing for the worst

UK Manufacturing production gaining 1.7% MoM

UK industrial production down -10.3 YoY less than expected

EU Retail Sales falling –3.6% YoY

Americas

US initial Jobless claims at 512K better than expected

US Nonfarm productivity strongly positive at 9.5% for Q3

US unit labor costs at -5.2% for Q3

The Overall Sentiment

Forex

Rate Decisions coming from the ECB and UK were at the centre with investors focus on rhetoric as key rates were broadly expected to be left unchanged. Both central banks left their rates unchanged with the ECB key rate at 1% and the UK key rate at 0.5%.Both banks seem more upbeat on the economy with the BoE increasing it’s bond purchase by only £25B the smallest amount since the Quantitative easing program was announces.ECB chairman Trichet also hinted emergency liquidity measures will start being  unwounded. The statements from both central Bankers were largely perceived as upbeat for the economies especially in the UK which now some suggest will revise its’ GDP upwards. In Asia-pacific the speech of Governor Glen Stevens also drew attention in a day loaded with Central bank statements with the Governor providing a rather positive outlook for the economy and raising the RBA growth forecast of for 2010.Overall the Dollar ended the day weaker but only modestly the Euro closed rather flat at 1.487$, the Sterling moved to the 1.66$ zone and Aussie moved back above 91 Cents.

Equities

Stocks rallied rather aggressively in the US where both the Dow and the NASDAQ surged beyond 2% with the Dow higher by 2.08% and the NASDAQ higher by 2.42%.Gaines in the Dow and S&P were fueled by positive US economic data starting with the Initial Jobless claims figure which stud at 512K and surprised slightly for the better but most importantly the Non-farm productivity at a 9.5% gain for Q3 showing healthy upward momentum for the US Economy. Cisco earnings release was also quite a market mover as the better than expected results pushed the NASDAQ to strong gains. At the day’s end European equities gained but only slightly while US equities advanced higher with the Dow Industrial closing above the 10,000.

Commodities

In the Commodities play trade was rather flat, Gold returned to the 1090$ zone after testing support at 1085$ and oil hovered around the 80$. Although the day was rather flat the fact commodities held rather well against selling pressure and remained at their high levels pointed upbeat sentiment is still around especially for the yellow metal which is now targeting the 1100$ milestone.

The Day Ahead

The sentiment will be stirred by economic data as the day will by loaded with highly weighted economic indicators starting with unemployment figures in Switzerland, Canada and the US where market eyes will focus on wither unemployment will reach 10%. The Unemployment figure will get special attention as many consider the unemployment to be the lead for future Fed monetary policy change. Another highly regarded economic indicators due are the US is the Nonfarm payrolls and Average hourly earnings which will also reflect strongly on the US Job market. All three are considered to be one of the most highly weighted economic indicators in the US and are known for having strong impact on market sentiment. Additional important economic indicators to watch will be the PPI figures in UK which will reflect on inflation prospect and in Germany factory orders will show industry sentiment in Germany Europe’s largest economy. However both economic indicators are expected to take the back seat in terms of market attention with the US indicators at the spotlight.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD

Bullish Scenario– A close above of the 1.67 would push the pair to a bullish zone rallying strongly to test the 1.71 resistance.

Target- 1.71

Bearish scenario– After failing to break the 1.67 resistance a close below 1.625 would ignite a strong bearish cycle.

Target A– 1.575

Target B-1.53

Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Yan Petters – The USD/DKK pair has recently dropped around 700 pips and is currently traded for the 5.0146 level. The 4-hour chat provides signal that this bearish move is likely to proceed, how far can it go?

• The chart below is the USD/DKK 4-hour chart by ForexYard.
• The technical indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, the Slow Stochastic, the MACD/OsMA and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• The Slow Stochastic has dropped below the 20-line, and is yet to provide a bullish cross. This indicates that the further bearish momentum is expected.
• The MACD is showing a sequence of bearish crosses. This shows that the bearish pressure is quite strong at the moment.
• The RSI continues to face down. It currently seems that for as long as the RSI doesn’t switch directions, the downtrend is likely to proceed.
• The pair is currently testing a very strong support level, placed at 5.005. If the pair will breach this level, it has the potential to drop all the way down towards the next support level which is placed at the 4.940 level.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The Bank of England’s (BOE) rate statement is due at 12:00 GMT while the European Central Bank (ECB) press conference is expected at 13:30 GMT. While both banks are expected to keep their interest rates at their current level, the statements should provide an insight to the current economic conditions as well as economic outlook for the near future. The BOE is expected to increase its quantitative easing program.

Economic News

USD – USD Down Following Fed Statement

The Dollar traded near its lowest level in a week against the EUR after the Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs near zero. The Federal Reserve reiterated its intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period” as long as inflation expectations are stable and unemployment continues to rise. Until the Fed starts signaling interest rate increases, investors will continue to be encouraged to sell the Dollar and buy higher-yielding assets

The Dollar traded at $1.4874 against the EUR in today’s early trading from $1.4861 in New York yesterday, when it touched $1.4909, the weakest level since Oct. 27. The Dollar traded at 90.82 yen from 90.72 Yen Wednesday.

The USD is expected to extend declines against its major counterparts ahead of Friday’s Non Farm Employment report forecasted to show U.S. employers cut fewer jobs in October than in September, damping demand for the U.S. currency as a refuge as economic sentiment continues to improve. The unemployment rate may rise to 9.9%, from 9.8%.

Looking ahead to today, the Dollar’s movements will likely be affected by the Central Bank statements from the U.K and Euro-Zone, however, the release of the Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT will likely have an affect on Dollar sentiment as well.

EUR – Pound Gains on Optimistic Services PMI

The EUR gained against 14 of its 16 major counterparts as the Economy Ministry in Berlin is expected to report Friday that German factory orders rose 1% in September after gaining 1.4% in August.

The British Pound gained 0.9% on the day. The Pound gained on both the Dollar and the EUR, after a survey of purchasing managers indicated the U.K.’s services PMI saw activity rise at its fastest pace in more than two years. The Bank of England is expected to increase the amount of debt it will buy from the market in today’s meeting.

The EUR rose to $1.4871 from $1.4712. The EUR jumped to 134.68 Yen from 132.91 Yen. The U.K. Pound strengthened to $1.6565 from $1.6412.

A heavy news day is expected from Europe today. The bank of England statement is due at 12:00 GMT and The European Central Bank is slated to gives its latest policy update at 13:30 GMT. The ECB is expected to keep rates at 1%. Furthermore, the GBP Manufacturing Production is expected to be released at 9:00 GMT.

JPY – Yen Gains ahead of U.S Unemployment Rate Report

The Yen rose against the EUR and Dollar in today’s early trading as Japan’s stocks declined amid concerns the global economic recovery will be slow, boosting demand for the Japanese currency as a refuge. The Yen advanced against all 16 major counterparts ahead a report Friday forecasted to show the U.S. jobless rate climbed last month. The Yen rose to 134.52 per EUR at 9:54 a.m. in Tokyo from 134.85 in New York yesterday. It climbed to 90.59 per Dollar from 90.72.

OIL – Oil Rises Above $80 a barrel

Crude futures settled above $80 a barrel Wednesday after a surprise decline in oil inventories and the Dollar dropped toward its low for the year against the EUR. Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled up 80 cents, or 1%, higher at $80.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Oil inventories dropped by 3.9 million barrels last week, while analysts unanimously expected a rise. Oil and fuel inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks supporting the rally in Oil prices. Oil got another boost after the Federal Reserve said it would maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy, which is seen as likely to keep pressure on the Dollar. Dollar denominated Oil tends to rise when the dollar weakens, since it becomes cheaper.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair could be in for further bullish strength in the near term. A correction during the Asian trading hours has weakened the pair. As such, a bullish cross has formed on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic Oscillator. Traders may want to be long to catch the up tick.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair once again tested but failed to break the significant 1.6600 resistance line. Today the pair has continued the appreciation for the third day. Traders who see the importance of this price level may want to set an entry limit sell order at this mark to profit if the pair reaches this price level and then reverses.

USD/JPY

The 4-hour chart shows the pair began to drop from its upper Bollinger Band, only to stall and turn up at average line. We may expect this pair to rise back up towards its upper Bollinger Band. Traders may want to go long with a stop set near the 90.90 level.

USD/CHF

Significant depreciation from the last day and a half left the pair oversold. This is shown by the bullish cross that has appeared on the 4-hour chart. The pair may be due for some appreciation. Going long could be the right choice.

The Wild Card – Gold

The price of the commodity has soared to a new record, touching on a high at $1097.05 yesterday. This has left the commodity potentially overbought. A bearish cross has formed on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic Oscillator, signaling a potential drop in the price. Forex and commodity traders may have an opportunity to sell gold at the peak of its appreciation today.

Forex Market Analysis provided by Forex Yard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Movers of the Day

Asia-Pacific

*Australian Retail Sales surprised for the worst at -0.2% vs. 0.5% expected

*New Zealand Unemployment Rate rose more than forecasted to 6.5%

Europe

*UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence at 72 as expected

*German PMI Services worse than expected at 50.7

*UK PMI Services better than forecasted at 56.9

*EU PMI Services slightly above estimates at 52.6

*EU PPI in line with expectations at -0.40%

Americas

*US ADP Employment Change worse than expected at -203K

*US EIA Crude Oil Stocks surprisingly fell 4.0M

*US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI weaker than predicted at 50.6

*US Fed left benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 0.25%

The Overall Sentiment

Equities

US stock markets closed on the positive side but far from their intraday highs. Equities rallied as the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% and stated once again that it will keep interest rates ‘exceptionally low for an extended period’. Fed officials added that this policy will remain in place as long as ‘inflation expectations are stable’. A downward rally at late trading hours led by a drop from financial shares corrected earlier gains. Still, the S&P managed to close up 0.1% and the Dow added 0.3%. European stock markets advanced driven by better-than-expected companies’ earnings reports sending all main indices to the green side. The DAX gained 1.7%, the FTSE 100 added 1.4% and the CAC 40 rose 2.4%. Canadian stocks advanced as Gold continued to rally and Oil climbed above $80.

Forex

The Dollar weakened all across the board rising only against the Yen as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and stock markets rallied. EUR/USD advanced strongly reaching an intraday high slightly above 1.49 to finally settle in the 1.4870 area. The Pound strengthened against both the Dollar and the Euro supported by positive data coming from UK’s service sector. GBP/USD retreated to the 1.6550 area after failing to break above 1.66. Commodity-linked currencies advanced as Gold continues to break records and Crude Oil rose above $80. The Aussie dollar managed to climb in spite of some early losses on surprisingly negative Retail Sales figures. The New Zealand dollar gave up most gains as the Unemployment Rate reached its highest level in over nine years. The Yen lost versus most of its counterparts declining against the Dollar for a third day. USD/JPY peaked at 91.30 and corrected to close the day around the 90.50 vicinity.

Commodities

Gold continued to rally setting new record highs at $1097 firmly stating its intentions to break the $1100 mark. Silver advanced for a fourth day climbing above $17.50. Crude Oil rose beyond $80 after the weekly EIA report showed stockpiles unexpectedly dropped 4.0 million barrels.

See more info about the Gold rally

The Day Ahead

Market’s attention will be on Europe as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decision. The ECB is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low 1% in its statement scheduled at 12:45 GMT. The bank’s president Trichet will speak at a press conference shortly after and analysts believe that there will be an indication about the ECB’s intention to start approaching the withdrawal of stimulus policy. In addition to the rate decision the Euro-zone will release its Retail Sales report. According to forecasts the BoE will probably leave its key rate at 0.5% and possibly expand its quantitative easing program by an additional £50 billion, thus signaling that the UK economy is still lagging behind when several other countries already started studying exit strategies. To complete an agitated day the UK will release its Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures. In the US session the Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to show a reduction of 10k from a previous reading of 530K in the number of workers applying for unemployment insurance for the first time . Canada’s Ivey PMI is forecasted to fall to 58 from a prior 61.7 in the last significant economic data release of a very appealing day for trading.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD DAILY

USD/CAD has been moving downwards in several bearish cycles defining a clear trend line that acted as a resistance for every bullish move. The pair presents the opportunity to open a Short position considering that it is currently trading near that trend line and the bullish momentum seems to be running out of steam. Stop Loss should be placed above the resistance and taking into account that the last sessions showed some volatility another attempt to break above it is not out of the question.

Market Analysis provided by eToro

Disclaimer: Trading in the Foreign Exchange market might carry potential rewards, but also potential risks. You must be aware of the risks and are willing to accept them in order to trade in the foreign exchange market. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

© 2009 eToro Blog.

By Fast Brokers – Gold surged past our 2nd tier downtrend yesterday after the IMF announced that India made a large bullion purchase from the monetary fund’s stockpile.  Gold’s technicals were already working in the topside’s favor, making yesterday’s breakout explosive.  Furthermore, gold managed to make yesterday’s key topside movement without the full cooperation of the Euro and Aussie.  In fact, gold’s impressive breakout could signal another round of weakness in the Dollar.  Regardless, gold’s momentum continues to work in favor of the topside as investors and governments try to diversify their assets and decrease their dependency on the Dollar.  Meanwhile, central bank meetings will be in focus for the next 24-48 hours, meaning volatility in the FX markets should increase.  Therefore, investors should expect further volatility in gold, especially considering the precious metal made such a bullish movement.

Technically speaking, we’re at a loss of downtrend lines and historical perspective again.  Therefore, the psychological $1100/oz level serves as our only trustworthy topside technical for the time being.  Speaking of which, gold stopped just short of $1100/oz, hinting that the level could have a near-term psychological impact on investors.  As for the downside, we’ve readjusted our uptrend lines, giving us an idea of support to go along with the psychological $1075/oz level.  Meanwhile, gold’s near-term activity could take its cue from the Dollar.  Hence, investors should monitor any technical breakouts or setbacks in either the EUR/USD or AUD/USD.

Present Price: $1091.30/oz

Resistances: $1091.49/oz, $1092.77/oz, $1095.77/oz, $1100.04/oz

Supports: $1087.85/oz, $1085.28/oz, $1083.14/oz, $1079.93/oz, $1075.01/oz, $1069.89

Psychological: $1100/oz, $1075/oz.

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.

By Fast Brokers – The EUR/USD logged sizable losses yesterday as we witnessed a broad-based preference for the Greenback despite a breakout in gold and U.S. equities ending slightly positive.  Therefore, it seems downward momentum was more in control than correlations and fundamentals.  Speaking of gold, yesterday’s breakout was impressive, and the precious metal is looking to test its psychological $1100/oz level.  Though much of gold’s strength may be attributed to India’s large bullion purchase from the IMF, the breakout could also signal another pullback in the Dollar due to their negative correlation.  In fact, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have posted encouraging gains since yesterday’s bottom as investors await the FOMC’s monetary policy decision this afternoon.  Since the Fed is expected to keep a loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future, any unexpected wording would likely have a large impact on the Dollar.  If the Fed does stand pat as anticipated, then tomorrow’s ECB and BoE meetings should carry some more weight in the FX markets.

It will be interesting to see how the ECB behaves tomorrow since the central bank has recently voiced its displeasure of such a weak Dollar.  Since the Chinese RMB is pegged to the Dollar, the Euro has also lost a lot of value against the Yuan, causing further damage to the EU’s recovering manufacturing sector.  However, the EUR/USD has pulled back from October highs following the ECB’s public objection, so it is uncertain whether the central bank will continue to be more Hawkish or omit more of a neutral tone.  Considering these observations, the ECB’s rate meeting tomorrow has an air of uncertainty to it, meaning volatility may pick up over the next 24-48 hours.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures have climbed back to their psychological 1050 mark while crude trades around its own psychological $80/bbl level.  Therefore, the bulls have placed the riskier investment vehicles back into a more reasonable position following last week’s large pullback.  As a result, the EUR/USD finds itself at a crossroads as well.  The currency pair has multiple uptrend and downtrend lines we can create while the psychological 1.50 level bears overhead and the psychological 1.45 level rests underneath.  Therefore, investors should keep a close eye on the Dollar’s reaction to upcoming monetary policy decisions until the Greenback commits to a new near-term trend.

Present Price: 1.4780

Resistances: 1.4796, 1.4814, 1.4828, 1.4847, 1.4859, 1.4876, 1.4890

Supports: 1.4773, 1.4759, 1.4740, 1.4711, 1.4684, 1.4648

Psychological: 1.50, 1.45

Market Commentary provided by Fast Brokers.

Disclaimer: FastBrokers’ market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regardedneither as an investment advice nor as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.