InvestMacro

By Orbex

Dollar Higher on Trade Deal Concerns

The US dollar has been a little firmer over the European morning on Wednesday as equities markets have seen a mild pullback. Uncertainty around Brexit negotiations as well as the pending signing of the US/China trade agreement has seen traders pairing risk into the middle of the week. USD index trades 98.09 last as safe-haven flows have seen price recovering off overnight lows. Later today we receive US retail sales data for September. These are expected to have ticked up slightly on the core reading and down slightly on the headline figure.

EUR Straddling 1.1025

EURUSD has been softer against USD today in light of the recovery in the greenback. The fundamental backdrop remains the same for the Eurozone as data weakness keeps sentiment skewed to the downside. Ongoing Brexit negotiations are also creating uncertainty with the potential for a no-deal Brexit still intact. This would hurt the Eurozone economy further. EURUSD trades 1.1027 last, sitting just atop the 1.1025 level for now.

GBP Down Ahead of Deal Deadline

GBPUSD has been lower today. The UK now has until midnight to submit a final version of its proposed Brexit deal to the EU. The EU is due to decide on the deal at tomorrow’s October summit. Despite positive commentary over recent days, traders remain wary of the risk that no deal will be done. This is keeping GBP weighed down today. GBPUSD trades 1.2717 last having tested the 1.2768 level yesterday.

Risk-Off In Face Of Uncertainty

Risk assets have been lower into the middle of the week as traders weigh up the current risk environment. Brexit negotiations and the outstanding deal between the US and China are creating uncertainty which has seen traders moving out of riskier assets for the time being. SPX500 trades 2987.83 last, with price having reversed after testing the bull channel top.

Gold & JPY Rally

Safe havens have had a better start to the day today taking advantage of the weakness in equities markets. Both JPY and gold have been higher against the US dollar as traders look to protect capital during the current uncertainty. XAUUSD trades 1483.48 last, still down well below the 1522.75 level. USDJPY trades 108.64 last with price pulling back from fresh three month highs printed yesterday.

Crude Down – EIA Delayed

Oil prices have been sold across the week as traders continue to show caution ahead of the US and China signing off on the verbal deal agreed last week. While Trump remains confident that the deal will be signed, traders are cautious given China’s history for pulling out of deals. The EIA inventories report is released a day late this week. This means that traders will have to wait until tomorrow to get the latest supply/demand data for the US. Crude trades 53.02 last.

CAD Higher

USDCAD has been a little lower today despite the strength in USD and weakness in crude prices. The pair continues to fluctuate around the 1.3207 level that acted as support for the sell-off last week. However, price action is looking weak again now and a further drop below the level seems likely.

AUD Weighed Down

AUDUSD has been lower today also as the risk-off mood has hit the Aussie.  Persistent fears over the signing of the US/China trade deal is keeping AUD pressure in the middle of the week though upside in gold has offset some of the weakness. AUDUSD trades .6734 last.

By Orbex

By IFCMarkets

Getting ready for the ECB meeting next week

In this review, we suggest to consider a personal composite instrument (PCI) & EUR_Index. It reflects the dynamics of changes in the value of the euro relative to other world currencies.Will the EUR_Index quotations grow?

The growth of this PCI indicates the strengthening of the single European currency. The main factor for this could be a stable positive trade balance of the Eurozone, amounting to about 20 billion euros per month. The positive trend can continue. According to the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), business activity in Germany increased significantly in October. Next week, on October 24, the next meeting of the ECB will be held. Accordingly, this week, a number of representatives of the European regulator are expected to speak, which may affect the dynamics of the euro.

On the daily timeframe EUR_Index: D1 moved into a short-term neutral trend. Various technical analysis indicators have generated signals to increase. Further growth of quotations is possible if positive macroeconomic indicators are published in the EU and the current ECB policy is maintained.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
• The Bolinger bands widened, indicating high volatility. Both Bollinger Lines Slope Up .
• The RSI indicator is above the 50 mark. It has formed a divergence to increase.
• The MACD indicator shows a signal to increase.

The bullish momentum may develop if EUR_Index exceeds its last upper fractal and the upper Bollinger line: 0.997. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial stop lose may be placed below the last lower fractal, the lower Bollinger line and the Parabolic signal: 0.983. After opening the pending order, the stop shall be moved following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (0,983) without reaching the order (0,997), we recommend to cancel the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

The International Monetary Fund issued another grim warning for global growth.

It said that the US-China trade war would cut 2019 global growth to the lowest levels since 2008 – 2009. The IMF stated that the global outlook could darken even further if the trade tensions are not resolved.

The report comes after the US and China resumed trade talks this week. But the initial euphoria faded after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warned that the US will go ahead with the tariffs it postponed if talks fall through.

German Economic Confidence Weakens Modestly

The investor confidence in Germany weakened slightly in October. The ZEW’s assessment of current economic situation fell to the lowest level since 2010. The ZEW index fell to -22.8 in October from -22.5 a month ago.

The data was, however, slightly better than the forecasts of a decline to -27. Meanwhile, the ZEW economic sentiment also weakened to -23.5 from -22.4. That being said, it still came in better than was forecast.

Will EURUSD Be Able to Break the Resistance?

The common currency struggled to hold on to the gains made above 1.1030. Price action continues to consolidate near this level. But the failure to breakout higher could potentially signal a downside bias.

For now, the rising trend line remains intact. But a breakdown of this trend line could signal a move lower to 1.0945.

Brexit Heading Down to the Wire

With the clock ticking closer to the October 31st deadline, EU officials are mulling over calling for an emergency summit. The negotiations continue with the UK, but officials said that there is a lot to discuss.

The developments come after the initial euphoria of a Brexit deal faded. This came after a joint statement from the UK and Irish Prime Ministers. Meanwhile, PM Johnson has until October 19th to decide whether to call for another round of extension to the Brexit deadline.

GBPUSD Surges Ahead

The currency pair posted strong gains following the brief consolidation near the price level of 1.2533. The strong rebound off this level will signal further gains to the upside.

With GBPUSD breaking past the previously established highs of 1.2668, we expect to see further gains coming along. The upside target for GBPUSD is at 1.2895.

Gold Slips as Risk Aversion Stays Low

The precious metal hit a session low on Tuesday. The declines came amid a lack of fresh fundamentals to go by in the markets.

The demand for the safe haven was also weaker as equities managed to post some meager gains. Gold was a bit choppy earlier in the week after the knee-jerk reaction to the US-China trade talks eased.

Gold Slips Below the Range Once Again

The precious metal eased once again, falling below the lower end of the sideways range. XAUUSD was trading below the 1485 handle. The breakdown in the level comes as gold prices remain trading rather flat.

If the downside momentum continues, we expect gold to retest the previous lows of 1462. To the upside, the price level of 1485 could be tested.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has completed the first descending wave along with the correction at 1.1042; right now, it is consolidating around 1.1030. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 1.1031 and then grow to return to 1.1030. If later the price fall and breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to break 1.0998. After that, the instrument may continue moving inside the downtrend with the predicted target at 1.0955.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving upwards; Possibly, today the pair may extend this wave towards 1.2811 and complete it. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1.2515.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is consolidating around 0.9978. Possibly, the pair may start a new correction to the downside to reach 0.9962 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 1.0024.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has reached the predicted upside target; right now, it is forming a new descending impulse towards 108.44. Later, the market may start another growth to reach 109.00 and then resume trading downwards with the first target at 108.30.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is falling to reach 0.6723. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure towards 0.6760 and then start a new decline with the target at 0.6700.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB continues consolidating around 64.22. If later the price breaks this range to the upside at 64.44, the instrument may start another growth to reach 64.70; if to the downside at 64.22 – continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 63.88.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has finished the correction. Today, the pair may continue the wave towards 1.3257 and then start another correction with the target at 1.3214.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed the descending impulse at 1478.65; right now, it is correcting towards 1488.13. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 1470.90 and then resume trading upwards to return to 1478.60. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend with the predicted target at 1459.33.

BRENT

Brent has finished the ascending impulse at 59.60; right now, it is correcting towards 58.53. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to break 59.70 and then continue trading upwards with the first target at 61.25.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD has completed the descending wave at 8060.00. Possibly, today the pair may form one more ascending structure to reach 8433.00 and then resume falling towards 8240.00. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may continue trading inside the uptrend towards 9000.00; if to the downside – start another decline with the target at 7700.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is rising within the mid-term correction. After the convergence, the pair has broken the high, as well as 50.0% fibo. Right now, the price is heading to reach its next upside target, 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1.2837 and 1.3040 respectively. The support is 38.2% fibo at 1.2500.

In the H1 chart, there is a divergence on MACD, which indicates a new pullback in the nearest future. Possibly, the pair may reach 61.8% fibo at 1.2837 and then start a new descending correction. The targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2686, 1.2592, 1.2516, and 1.2441 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURJPY is testing its previous high. The current rising impulse helped to continue the mid-term correction; the closest upside target is 61.8% fibo at 120.50. The next targets may be inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 121.14 and 121.82 respectively. Inside the same area, there is mid-term 76.0% fibo at 121.55. The support is at 117.07.

In the H1 chart, there is a divergence on MACD. We may assume that after reaching 61.8% fibo at 120.50, the instrument may resume falling towards 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 119.69, 119.19, 118.79, and 118.38 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

The monthly US retail sales report is due to come out today.

Data from the Commerce Department is forecast to show that retail sales will rise by 0.3% on both the headline and the core.

In August, headline retail sales rose 0.4% while core retail sales were unchanged. Headline retail sales eased to 0.4% after rising 0.8% in July.

The gains in August were only moderate with most of the heavy lifting done by a jump in the auto sales sector. The report in August underlined the fact that consumers were more cautious. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, had remained flat and this was the first time since February this year.

While retail sales declines were expected following the surprise jump in July, the trend seems to be turning further down south. This comes as the US and China trade war intensifies, leading to declining exports. Amid the scenario, the onus falls on consumer spending to drive retail sales higher.

Furthermore, online sales continue to eat into the market share of traditional retailers. In both July and August, online sales rose 1.6% respectively on a month over month basis.

The forecasts for weaker headline sales come on the back of reports that the auto sales for September were weak.

Auto Sales Slump in September

After maintaining a healthy trend, auto sales pulled back strongly. This led to auto dealerships giving away hefty incentives in order to clear out old inventory.

The monthly auto sales report for September was disappointing. Some of the big Asian car makers such as Toyota and Honda reported double-digit declines during the month. This was even worse than the expected declines.

Part of the fall is also because of fewer business days in September.

It is estimated that US auto sales fell more than 12% during the month. However, industry watchers remain hopeful that auto sales will pick up amid falling interest rates.

But, at a different level, the slide in the auto sales continues. This raises concerns that car sales could eventually collapse. The slowdown is putting car dealers under pressure amid shrinking margins.

From the retail sales perspective, weaker auto sales could pull headline retail sales lower. Therefore, it is likely that the data could either match or come below estimates.

Will Weaker Consumer Confidence Erode Retail Spending?

Besides the slump in auto sales, consumer confidence was also weaker during the month.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence report slipped to 125.1 from 134.2 in September. This was the biggest monthly declines in nine months.

According to the report, consumers were less positive in their assessment of the economy and the current conditions. In August, consumer confidence was at 134.2 compared to 135.1 from the initial reports.

If the weaker consumer confidence report translates to lower spending at retail outlets, the data could come in much lower than forecasts.

The markets are currently assigning at least two rate cuts for the remainder of this year. This view comes amid weakening growth in the United States. Fed members, according to the recent Fed minutes, also expressed concerns about the misalignment between the Fed and the markets.

A weaker retail sales report could, however, help cement expectations for another rate cut at the very least. The jobs report for September showed that wages grew at a slower pace alongside the number of jobs added.

By Orbex

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.10271
• Open: 1.10322
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05
• Day’s range: 1.10231 – 1.10373
• 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

Yesterday EUR/USD was highly active, yet without a defined trend. EUR keeps testing the levels at 1.10150-1.10400. The financial market participants are waiting or additional drivers, i.e. the progress in US/China negotiations. Further recovery is highly possible. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 16.10.2019:

• – Inflation report (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Retail sales report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Federal Reserve Beige Book (US) – 21:00 (GMT+3:00);

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA and 100 MA..

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, which signals a bullish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also gives a signal to buy EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.10150, 1.09900, 1.09650
• Resistance levels: 1.10400, 1.10600

If the price consolidates above the resistance level of 1.10400, expect further growth of EUR/USD quotes to 1.10700-1.10900.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward1 1.09900-1.09700.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.26237
• Open: 1.26016
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06
• Day’s range: 1.26008 – 1.26371
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3385

The GBP stabilized after a significant rally last week. Optimism over the settlement of the Brexit process began to weaken. EU diplomats said the bloc wants additional concessions from Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Currently, the GBP/USD currency pair is consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are: 1.25700 and 1.26450, respectively. We are expecting important economic reports from the UK. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00) UK will publish a labour market report.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of buyers.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.25700, 1.25150, 1.24250
• Resistance levels: 1.26450, 1.27000

If the price consolidates above 1.26450, expect further growth toward 1.27000-1.27400.

Alternatively, the quotes could decrease toward 1.25200-1.24800.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32345
• Open: 1.31988
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21
• Day’s range: 1.31948 – 1.32127
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

USD/CAD currency pair continues to consolidate. There is no defined trend. CAD is currently testing local support and resistance levels at 1.31950 and 1.32200, respectively. Trading instrument can decline further. Financial market participants expect the release of important statistics. We also recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of oil prices. You should open positions from the key levels.

Canada will publish an inflation report at 15:30 (GMT+3: 00).

The price fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.31950, 1.31700
• Resistance levels: 1.32200, 1.32400, 1.32700

If the price consolidates below 1.31950, expect a further drop toward 1.31600-1.31400.

Alternative recommendations.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.397
• Open: 108.848
• % chg. over the last day: +0.38
• Day’s range: 108.600 – 108.862
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

USD/JPY currency pair continues to show positive trends. The trading instrument reached three-month highs. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 108.600 and 108.900, respectively. Investors took a wait and see attitude before the release of important economic reports from the United States. We also recommend paying attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 16.10.2019 is calm.

Indicators poin to the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 108.600, 108.200, 107.850
• Resistance levels: 108.900, 109.400, 109.600

If the price consolidates above 108.900, expect further growth toward 109.300-109.500.

Alternatively, expect the quotes to decrease toward 108.250-108.000.

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

It is absolutely amazing how the precious metals markets have followed our October 2018 predictions almost like clockwork.  Our call for an April 21~24 momentum base below $1300 followed by an extensive rally to levels above $1550 has been playing out almost like we scripted these future price moves.

Now that the $1550 level has been reached, we are expecting a rotation to levels that may reach just below the $1450 level before attempting to set up another momentum base/bottom formation.  And just like clockwork, Gold has followed our predictions and price is falling as we expected. Just look at our October 2018 chart where we forecasted the price of gold rallies and corrections along the way.

GOLD FORECAST & IS THE DEBT CRISIS ABOUT TO BE REBORN IN 2020?
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-the-debt-crisis-about-to-be-reborn-in-2020/

Gold Cycle Forecast – Daily Chart

Take a look at the most active cycles for gold and where our gold forecast is pointing to next. The downside rotation currently in Gold is likely not quite over yet and the gold mines will selloff the most.  This new momentum base should setup and complete once the gold cycles bottom.  The next upside price leg should push Gold well above the $1760~1780 level – so get ready for another big rally of 20%+.

Gold Miners Sell Off – Daily Chart

Unfortunately, so many traders are highly emotional and fall in love with positions in shiny metals or gold miner stock positions. Yet we all know if you trade on emotions or fall in love with a position, you are most likely to lose a ton of money. Two weeks ago I got so much flack from traders when I said gold miners were on the verge of a violent drop in price, then the bottom fell out and the dropped huge. Then last Thursday morning when gold, silver, and miners are trading up huge in pre-market and at the opening bell I warned it looked like a big fakeout and price could collapse for yet a second leg down and the same response from those emotional traders who love their positions and won’t sell them when they should as active traders.

Have You Outperformed GDXJ This Year?

If you like to trade in the precious metals sector then you most likely love to trade the gold miners ETF GDXJ. As you can see above GDXJ is only up 19.55% year to date. Sure, it’s a nice gain, but are you still holding your metals position knowing you just gave back most or all of your profits?

Being a technical analyst my focus is to only enter a position when the charts/analysis point to an immediate price advance or decline. I site in cash waiting for the next cycle top or bottom to form in an asset class like gold miners, gold, silver, or silver miners, and once the cycle starts I jump on the wave and ride it for the move until it shows signs that its weakening and will break. almost 50% of the year my portfolio is sitting in cash. And my average position only lasts around 12 days.

Take a look at all my precious metals related trades this year (2019) below. They are all winners, and total gain for subscribers of my Wealth Building Newsletter is 41.74% profit. More than double the return than if you were riding the GDXJ roller coaster for 9 months straight and all your money at risk.

My point here is that no matter how much you love metals (and I LOVE METALS), but you do not need to always be in a position in them. There are times to own, and times to watch with your money safely in cash.

Concluding Thoughts:

The end result is that the fear and greed that is starting to show up in the precious metals markets may become an “unruly beast” if it continues to grow in strength and velocity.

Keep reading our research because our proprietary tools have been nailing all of these price targets and moves many months in advance.  The next bottom in metals should set up when our cycle bottoms – then the next upside leg will begin.  This time Gold should target $1800 and Silver should target $21 to $24.  This will be an incredible move higher if it plays out as we suspect.

I urge you visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Join Now and Get a Free 1oz Silver Bar!

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, or stocks but globally and some of these supercycles are going to last years. A gentleman by the name of Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen

TheTechnicalTraders.com

by JustForex

The US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday’s trading session in the negative zone (-0.17%). Relations between the US and China have escalated again due to the situation in Hong Kong. US lawmakers supported the protest movement in Hong Kong, which Beijing did not like.

Investors are focused on the situation concerning Brexit. So, yesterday it became known that the UK and the European Union were close to concluding a draft agreement on Brexit. It is reported that the agreement will directly depend on whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson receives support from the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. Investors are also waiting for the summit of the UK and the EU, which will be held on Thursday-Friday. After the summit, the scenario of Brexit is likely to become a little clearer.

Mixed UK labor market data were also published yesterday. The average earnings + bonus increased by 3.8% in August, while experts expected growth by 4.0%. Initial jobless claims increased only by 21.1K in September instead of 26.5K. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in August instead of the forecasted value of 3.8%.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $52.70 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock markets: #SPY (+0.99%), #DIA (+0.88%), #QQQ (+1.27%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has risen again. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 1.73-1.74%.

• – Consumer price index in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – Report on retail sales in the US at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Statistics on inflation in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – Fed’s “Beige Book” at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events October 16, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

Today, our focus will again be on Gold. After the recent developments in the trade dispute between the US and China last Friday and at least partial trade deal between the two biggest economies in the world, the precious metal just closed slightly below 1,500 USD.

The primary potential reason is probably that Gold traders already smelled something fishy in the “deal” which was announced by Trump on Friday, and when on Monday news hit the wire that China wants more talks before signing Trump’s phase 1 deal, it became clear that it’s only a deal on the surface and tensions between the US and China will likely remain in the near future.

If today’s US retail sales data don’t show the same solid developments as recent publications indicated, again fueling recession fears, our overall bullish outlook could find a new driver upwards, back above 1,500 USD and eyeing the current yearly highs around 1,555 USD in the days to come again.

And even if Gold does not take on bullish momentum again (probably because US retail sales data significantly beat expectations of 0.3% (MoM)), a stint below the current October lows around 1,460 USD wouldn’t darken the picture, but instead, bring a potential mid-term long trigger around 1,440/450 USD into play:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between July 17, 2018, to October 15, 2019). Accessed: October 15, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
9. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets