InvestMacro

By IFCMarkets

Soft US data bullish for XAUUSD

Manufacturing and sales data indicated US economy cooled since last Fed meeting. Will the XAUUSD continue advancing?

The US-China trade dispute remains the main drag on global economy with the uncertainty driving the demand for haven assets including gold. Data after Fed’s October 30 interest rate cut point to cooling of US economy: the manufacturing sector continued contraction in October albeit at slower pace as ISM Manufacturing Index edged up to 48.3 from 47.8 in September, though services sector expansion accelerated. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.1% over year in October from 4.1% in September, and industrial production decline accelerated to 1.1% from 0.1% in September. And trade talks have hit a snag after reports Monday Beijing is pessimistic about trade deal following President Trump’s denial of agreeing about tariff rollback which China thought sides had agreed in principle. Next day US Senate approved a bill to support human rights in Hong Kong. China promptly threatened “strong countermeasures.” Soft economic data and continued trade uncertainty is bullish for gold prices.

On the daily timeframe the XAUUSD:D1 is rising to test 100-day moving average MA(100) which is rising.

• The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal.
• The Donchian channel indicates downward bias: it is narrowing down.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal: it is below the signal line and the gap is narrowing.
• The RSI oscillator is level below 50 level.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 1478.30. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the last fractal low at 1456.22. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (1456.22) without reaching the order (1478.30), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By IFCMarkets

Rising growth risks bearish for EURUSD

The European Central Bank stated in its Financial Stability Review that downside risks to global and euro-zone economic growth have increased. Will the EURUSD decline?

The price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows EURUSD: H1 is in uptrend. The price is rising above the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is picking. The RSI oscillator is above 50 level and has not reached the overbought zone.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.6796; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6790 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6665. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6875. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6965.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6415; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6405 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6585. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6330. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6235.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is trading at 1.3305; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.3265 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.3425. Another signal to confirm further ascending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.3185. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.3105.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

The risk-off sentiment in the market was fueled by President Trump’s latest tweet. The US-China trade talks which seemed to have been progressing hit a roadblock.

Trump tweeted that if China fails to make a deal, he would raise tariffs even higher. The talks also hit a snag after the US Senate passed a bill in support of the Hong Kong protests which did not go over well with China.

Euro Trades Mixed as USD Attempts to Rebound

The euro was trading mixed on Wednesday. This comes as the greenback attempted to make a comeback.

Traders were mostly trading off the major global cues with the FOMC meeting and the China trade talks at the forefront. Economic data from both the eurozone and the United States was sparse.

Can EURUSD Consolidate Result in an Upside Breakout?

The EURUSD has been trading within the resistance area of 1.1075 – 1.1062. This has led to a possible bullish flag pattern. But, an upside breakout is required in order for prices to push higher.

The minimum upside target is seen at 1.1131. This also coincides with the upper resistance area at this price point.

Crude Oil Jumps Amid Inventory Build-Up

Crude oil prices rose over 3% on Wednesday. The gains came as the oil markets ignored the weekly EIA report. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed another week of build-up in crude oil inventories.

For the week ending November 15^th, there was a build-up of 1.4 million barrels. This was higher than the forecasts of 1.06 million. The EIA said that the inventory levels were 3% above the seasonal level.

WTI on Track to Retest Resistance

Crude oil prices have shot up and if the current momentum persists, price could test the resistance level of $57.64 – $57.87. The gains will still keep oil prices trading sideways. The floor is at 54.71 – 54.42. Oil prices need to break out from either of these levels to continue the direction.

Gold Volatile Due to Trade Narrative

The precious metal was trading volatile on Wednesday. The trade talks, which seem to have stalled now, raise prospects that the Phase-One deal will not be made this year.

The earlier view was that both parties would strike a deal by November. The precious metal recovered from losses from over a week, but the gains were subdued.

XAUUSD Likely to Maintain the Upside

XAUUSD could see further upside if the current momentum continues. Prices are trading within the 1483 – 1462 corridor. A breakout from this range could set the near term direction. But, given that the trade narrative has become a major driver, price action could continue to remain choppy for a while.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is still consolidating. In this case, the price is expected to break 4/8 and then continue falling to reach the support at 3/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 5/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at 6/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator once again and, as a result, continue trading downwards to reach 3/8 from the H4 chart.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is moving between 6/8 and 7/8. In this case, the price may resume trading downwards, break 6/8, and then continue its decline towards the support at 4/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 7/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue growing towards the resistance at 8/8.

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator again and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

In the week ending November 15, EIA reported a build in crude oil inventories, driving WTI prices lower. On Wednesday however, crude prices rose despite EIA reporting another successive build. The rise in stocks was smaller compared to analysts’ expectations.

Both API and EIA reported negative results for the week ending November 22nd. These weighed on the yearly net build despite talks about deeper production cuts.

This is now the fourth consecutive build, highlighting the need for clarity surrounding stalled trade talks.

Crude Inventories Build Turns Bullish

The EIA reported a build of 1.379M barrels for the week ending November 21. This is almost half the previous week’s build of 2.219M barrels, signaling a slowdown in the pilling rate.

Besides rising crude stocks, EIA also reported a rise in gasoline stock, partially supporting the increase in oil prices.

Crude moved from 55.77 before the release to a daily high of 57.35 following the report as the actual build missed analysts’ bearish expectations of 1.543M barrels.

Production Rate Slowdown Hints to Higher Prices

Based on EIA’s drilling productivity report, shale oil production is heading higher, however, at a decelerating rate. Last week, oil rigs also showed that there might indeed be increased demand as the count was at a multi-year low.

Although the rise in new-well production could cause short-term discrepancies, it is likely to be offset by increased demand as we enter the winter season.

The OPEC+ deal reached in October 2018 is also affecting prices as Russia remains somewhat non-compliant with cutting output. Russia was supposed to cut output a month ago but remains hesitant in doing so.

Oil Prices Affected By Aramco IPO Valuation

The weekly price movement was highlighted by Aramco’s valuation early in the week. WTI prices fell after the state-owned company announced that they will be offering only 1.5% of the total stake in its IPO.

With the original valuation at $2T, the price drop was a result of the lackluster stake Saudi Arabia has announced to make available. All the while, the country’s move would lighten up the heavy reliance on oil exports and diversify its economy while reducing its budget deficit.

Next month’s IPO could keep markets under pressure. Investors will be looking to grab as many shares as possible.

WTI Looks Bearish In the Medium Term

When adding pressures from Russia’s non-compliance, higher production, and distillate activity, oil has good chances of reaching at least the previous low towards the 50.00 mark.

The current structure, as part of the intermediate degree wave (3), looks bearish. The correction up to 57.38 could have acted as a retracement level. Fibonacci is projecting the 1.618 and then 2.0-2.618 extensions as potential stops.

This assumes the decline continues below 54.90 since the triple combination ((w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z)) has ended.

By Orbex

By George Prior

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party’s radical Marxist manifesto will bring far-reaching economic chaos for Brexit-battered Britain, affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The founder and CEO of deVere Group, Nigel Green, is speaking out as the opposition Labour leader unveils his party’s manifesto on Thursday ahead of next month’s UK general election.

Mr Green says: “Labour’s Marxist manifesto is the most radical and dangerous in decades.

“It would bring far-reaching economic chaos for a Brexit-battered Britain already on the brink.

“Corbyn and McDonnell’s agenda would create a nightmarish scenario that would hit those very people the most that it is proclaiming to try and support and protect.”

He continues: “There are three fundamental reasons why the Corbyn-led Labour manifesto would damage the UK economy.

“First, it would drive down already stagnate business investment in the UK.

“The mammoth nationalization programme will leave companies thinking ‘who’s next?’ Plus, the snatching of 10 per cent of the shares in every big company and a significant increase in trade union power, including a return to collective bargaining, will leave UK and international investors justifiably concerned that their investments will not be safe under Labour.

“This will seriously erode any attempts to generate long-term, sustainable economic growth.”

Mr Green goes on to say: “Second, it would trigger an exodus of some of the most successful and wealthiest individuals.

“This would likely be due to concerns regarding Labour’s stance on inheritance tax, income tax, stamp duty and capital gains tax, potentially even capital controls, and the slashing of pensions tax relief.

“Typically, these people have the resources to move to safe lower tax jurisdictions if the tax burden in Britain becomes too great.

“Should these largely job and wealth-creating, tax-paying individuals quit Britain, the government’s finances will suffer significantly because they contribute a disproportionately large amount to the state’s coffers. Indeed, they prop-up the system.

“And third, a renegotiation of the Brexit deal, which would be put to a second referendum, would create many more months of uncertainty for businesses.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Labour’s economic agenda is a risky gamble. Its potential for serious adverse consequences is massive.

“And whilst the radical plans are already far-reaching, this might be just the beginning, with more misguided policies to come.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.10774
• Open: 1.10731
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01
• Day’s range: 1.10724 – 1.10794
• 52 wk range: 1.0884 – 1.1623

Major currency pairs have stabilized. Investors expect additional drivers. According to the FOMC minutes, the Fed will not need to further reduce its key interest rate unless significant changes in the economy occur. Recall that in the current year, the regulator lowered its key interest rate three times. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.50% -1.75%. Doubts about the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing intensified amid the tense situation in Hong Kong. We recommend you to keep track of current information on this issue. Today, financial market participants will evaluate a number of important economic releases. Currently, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.10650-1.10850. Positions must be opened from these marks.

The Economic News Feed for 21.11.2019:

• – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (EU) – 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Initial Jobless Claims (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Manufacturing PMI from Philadelphia’s Fed (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Secondary Real-Estate Sales Report (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

Indicators do not provide accurate signals, the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, hte %K line is below the %D line which points to a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.10650, 1.10550, 1.10400
• Resistance levels: 1.10850, 1.11000, 1.11250

If the price consolidates above 1,10850, expect further growth toward 1.11200-1.11400.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.10400-1.10200.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.29241
• Open: 1.29222
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01
• Day’s range: 1.29103 – 1.29325
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3385

An ambiguous technical pattern has developed on the GBP/USD currency pair. Sterling is currently consolidating. GBP / USD quotes test the resistance level of 1.29300. 1.28900 is a key support. Market participants expect up-to-date information regarding the Brexit process. Today, investors will evaluate important statistics on the US economy. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.11.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram has moved into the positive zone, which indicates the development of bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell GBP / USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.28900, 1.28650, 1.28350
• Resistance levels: 1.29300, 1.29700, 1.29850

If the price consolidates above 1.29300, expect the quotes to rise toward 1.29600-1.30000.

Alternatively, the quotes can descend toward 1.28700-1.28500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32663
• Open: 1.33026
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27
• Day’s range: 1.33017 – 1.33220
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The USD/CAD currency pair has stabilized after a sharp rally since the beginning of this week. Looney is currently consolidating. Unidirectional trends are not observed. The local support and resistance levels are: 1.33000 and 1.33250, respectively. In the near future, technical correction of the trading instrument is not ruled out. Today we recommend you to pay attention to the news background on the US economy, as well as the dynamics of prices of black gold. Open positions from key levels.

At 15:40 (GMT + 2: 00) a speech will be held by the head of the Bank of Canada.

The price fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.33000, 1.32800, 1.32550
• Resistance levels: 1.33250, 1.33500

If the price consolidates above 1.33250, expect further growth toward 1.33500-1.33700.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.32800-1.32600.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.539
• Open: 108.580
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06
• Day’s range: 108.278 – 108.671
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The technical picture on the USD/JPY currency pair is still ambiguous. The trading instrument continues to consolidate. There is no defined trend. At the moment, the following local support and resistance levels can be distinguished: 108.450 and 108.700. Demand for “safe haven” currencies remains at a fairly high level. Today we expect the release of important economic reports from the United States. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 21.11.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 108.450, 108.250, 108.000
• Resistance levels: 108.700, 108.900, 109.050

If the price consolidates below 108.450, expect the quotes to fall toward

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 108.900-109.100.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar is being traded stably against major competitors. Yesterday, the dollar index (#DX) closed the trading session with a slight increase (+0.06%). According to the FOMC meeting minutes, if there are no significant changes in the economy, further reduction of the Fed key interest rate will not be required. It should be recalled that this year the Central Bank lowered its key interest rate three times. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.50%-1.75%.

Investors are worried that the conclusion of a phase one trade agreement between Washington and Beijing may be postponed to next year amid growing disagreements. The US House of Representatives has approved a bill aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong. In turn, Beijing criticized these legislative measures, promising to retaliate. These events support the demand for safe haven currencies. Today, investors will assess some important economic releases from the Eurozone and the United States.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $56.85 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, sales prevailed in the US stock markets: #SPY (-0.37%), #DIA (-0.40%), #QQQ (-0.60%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has moved away from local lows. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.75-1.76%.

• – Publication of the ECB monetary policy meeting account at 14:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Initial jobless claims in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Existing home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By OilPrice.com

Some analysts see the world dodging a recession next year, which provides some upward room for oil prices.

Last week, the IEA warned last week that “the hefty supply cushion” building up in the first half of 2020 will cause OPEC+ problems as the group tries to balance the oil market. Part of the reason for another potential surplus is the steep drop in demand growth this year, forcing oil forecasters to make multiple downward revisions to their projections.

“With consumption growth of just 830 thousand b/d YoY in 2019, global oil demand has easily expanded at the lowest rate since the global financial crisis 10 years ago,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.

The slowdown was particularly concentrated in industrial sectors, which have been hit hard by the trade war. “The manufacturing downturn in 2019 has been so pronounced that we think it could aptly be labeled as the third global industrial recession in the past 10 years, following the activity drops witnessed in 2012 and 2016,” the bank said.

Or, put more succinctly, “The world has just lived through an industrial recession,” Bank of America concluded, and oil prices really only held up because of massive supply outages in 2019. The industrial slowdown spread around the world.

Take India, for example. The “weak picture for the manufacturing and industrial” sectors of the Indian economy continue, JBC Energy said in a note on Monday, which have hit diesel sales. “The 120,000 b/d (7%) y-o-y contraction was greater than even the demonetization-driven downside from January 2017,” JBC Energy said. “With bitumen sales also low, it appears activity in Indian manufacturing and construction is waning.”

But there are some reasons to think that things could turn around. While a lot still depends on the outcome of the U.S.-China trade war and the “partial deal” that the market still believes is likely, recent streams of data have tamped down fears of a recession. “Looking into 2020, we expect an improvement in cyclical demand conditions as manufacturing PMIs seem to have stabilized and in some cases appear to be turning positive,” Bank of America said.

Part of the reason for more optimism is that corporations with global supply chains have held back on purchases over the past year, in large part because of the trade war, and have whittled away at inventory.

The strategy seemed to be an attempt to wait out tariffs in the hopes of a negotiated breakthrough. That makes sense at the individual company level, but it hit manufacturers hard as sales and activity dropped. However, companies will now have to restock in 2020, Bank of America says. That could help steady the economy.

Meanwhile, if the U.S. and China can indeed agree to a partial trade deal, that would “further help boost industrial activity and confidence in the global economy,” Bank of America said, and “any signs of improvement on the trade front could add upward pressure to cyclical energy and metals prices.” The removal of some tariffs could both push down the dollar and raise commodity prices.

Still, a comprehensive breakthrough in the trade war is going to be extremely difficult, and the two sides have been far apart on the big issues. The partial deal, such as it is, would only suspend tariffs in exchange for China buying large sums of agricultural goods.

But even the partial deal has run into trouble. The Trump administration has hyped a $50 billion purchase from China for U.S. agricultural goods, a figure that some say is “not possible.” So, it’s worth noting that even a very narrow and modest agreement has become a challenging prospect, to say nothing of more structural differences between the two countries.

In short, while the tone has softened and both sides have signaled that negotiations are proceeding to a conclusion, the U.S.-China trade war is far from finished.

In fact, right on cue, doubts began to resurface on Monday. CNBC said that the “mood in Beijing about a trade deal is pessimistic due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s reluctance to roll back tariffs.” Beijing may instead decide to sit and wait, betting that Trump’s standing continues to deteriorate in the face of an impeachment inquiry.

“It looks like this is by no means a done deal,” Matthew Miskin, a market strategist

Link to article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Worst-Is-Over-For-Oil-Markets.html

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com