InvestMacro

By Orbex

US-China trade negotiations are quickly approaching a critical phase. On December 15^th, the US is due to go live with the next round of 15% tariffs on $156 billion of Chinese goods.

Shortly after the phase-one trade deal was first agreed upon back at the October 10^th meeting, the US warned China that if a deal was not in place by this date, it would push ahead with the tariffs.

Equally, the US advised that they could avoid these next tariffs if they manage to sign a deal.

One Week Until Tariffs Deadline

Just one week out from this date, the US and China have still yet to sign off on the phase-one trade deal.

The deal was originally due to be signed at the Chilean APEC meeting in mid-November. However, due to social unrest in Chile, the meeting was canceled. This left the trade deal without a signing venue.

Following the meeting, the trade talks seemed to be in limbo. Neither a new venue nor a new date was agreed upon, and talks seemed to falter.

During this period, both sides made an effort to keep markets reassured. Traders received regular comments from high-level officials including Trump and Xi, reaffirming the view that talks were still on course to deliver a deal.

US Backs Hong Kong Protestors

Early last week, the markets were rocked as talks looked like they were going to collapse amidst a fresh outbreak of tensions.

The US Congress passed a bill pushing for fairer treatment of pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. The situation, which has drawn widespread attention and accusation of civil rights infringements, presented a very precarious issue for the US.

On the one hand, Trump could not be seen to be siding with President Xi. On the other, Trump was wary of any actions which might anger Xi and derail the trade talks.

US Bill Angers China

The signing of the bill did indeed provoke an angry response from China. China immediately announced that a US military visit had been postponed as a consequence of the US’ actions. It also warned that it was considering banning US diplomatic passport holders from entering the country.

With markets reeling lower, traders clearly thought that talks were due to collapse. This led back to an environment of tit-for-tat aggression between the US and China.

However, China quickly moved in to calm markets releasing a statement via state media reassuring traders that talks were still ongoing. However, while this did assuage a great deal of the panic, China also noted that for a deal to be completed, the US would need to remove existing tariffs, and not just cancel future ones.

This demand by China has proved to be the main roadblock to a deal so far. Trump has so far remained adamant that existing tariffs will remain in place.

China Removes Some Tariffs

Further into the week, however, traders were offered a fresh glimmer of hope. Rather by surprise, China announced that it will remove existing tariffs on some US soybean and pork products.

These two products have been among the hardest hit by the trade war and the prospect of having tariffs removed on these goods will be warmly welcomed by the US agricultural sector.

The announcement comes after the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that it is planning to increase this year’s pork imports by 40% on the prior year.

Waiting Game

For now, traders wait to see what will happen this week. If a deal isn’t agreed upon, will Trump extend some good faith and postpone the next tariffs or will he push ahead regardless?

When questioned this week over his plans for the 15^th, Trump said he would “have to see”. He explained:

“We’re not discussing that, but we are having very major discussions on December 15th. Something could happen, but we are not discussing that yet.”

Technical Perspective

Despite the retracement lower last week, the SPX500 found strong demand on the dip. Price has since turned higher again. The current 3155.79 highs now look susceptible to a fresh break-out, provided that headlines remain supportive this week.

If we see any reversal lower, however, the key level to watch will be the 3028.68 previous highs, where we also have trend line support. While price remains above here, further upside remains the key focus.

By Orbex

By Orbex

USD Softer Despite Strong NFP

The US dollar has been a little softer over the European morning on Monday, retracing the gains posted on Friday on the back of a strong NFP. The headline NFP figure came in a 266k jobs vs 181k expected.

With the unemployment rate also falling to 3.5% from the prior and expected 3.6%, the data was very strong and should see the Fed keep rates unchanged at its rate-setting meeting this week. USD index trades 97.59 last, capped by the 97.69 level for now.

EUR Rises on Weak USD

EURUSD has been a little firmer so far today, benefiting from weakness in the US dollar. EURUSD trades 1.1066 last, straddling the middle of the range between the 1.1024 level and 1.1166. The main focus this week is on the ECB meeting on Thursday which will be the first headed by new ECB president Christine Lagarde. While we expect no further easing at this point, traders are anticipating dovish forward guidance from the new ECB chief.

GBP Higher on Elections Polls

GBPUSD remains well supported on Monday, with price still trading above the 1.3033 level. The main focus for GBP traders this week is the UK elections on Thursday.

Current polls continue to show the Conservative party in the lead. If the Conservative party does win, the focus will be back on the PM’s Brexit deal which should help keep sentiment positive towards GBP.

Trade Deal Uncertainty Weighing on Risk Sentiment

Risk assets have had a subdued start to the week with the SPX500 hovering around 3144.28 last. While the market remains optimistic around the prospect of a US-China trade deal, there is still a risk that if a deal is not done by December 15^th, the US will activate a new round of trade tariffs which would weigh heavily on risk sentiment.

JPY & Gold Firmer

Safe havens have started the week on a firmer footing with both JPY and gold higher against the US dollar as trade deal uncertainty sees increase safe-haven flows. USDJPY trades 108.47 last, having fallen back below the 108.84 level.

XAUUSD trades 1463.19 last, recovering off last week’s lows. However, in light of last week’s sell-off, gold looks vulnerable to another push lower.

Crude Backs Away From Resistance

Oil has been softer at the start of the week. Late on Friday, crude pushed up to just shy of testing the 60 level resistance, though has since reversed.

News that OPEC and allied non-OPEC members have agreed to deepen the current production cuts from 1.2 million barrels per day to 1.7 million barrels per day should keep crude supported in the near term.

CAD Lower Following Data Miss

USDCAD has had a quiet start to the week with price consolidating near the top of last week’s rally around 1.3258. Despite the strength in USD on the back of a strong US jobs number, the rally in crude has helped boost CAD, offsetting some of the upside pressure in the pair.

Last week, the Canadian unemployment rate jumped from 5.5% to 5.9% which has increased expectations of a BOC rate cut in the near future.

Aussie Lower on Monday

AUDUSD has been lower over the morning session on Monday with price pulling away from the .6850 level to trade .6824 last. The pause in upside momentum for risk assets is being reflected in Aussie price action so far today. US-China trade talks remain the key driver here and if a deal doesn’t look like it will be done ahead of December 15^th, we could see deeper weakness in AUD.

By Orbex

By Orbex

Friday’s payrolls report came in the midst of speculation that the labor market was cooling. This sentiment was set after a weaker than expected private payrolls report.

However, investors were in for a surprise when the payrolls for November rose by 266,000. The previous month’s payrolls were revised higher to 156,000.

The official unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.6% earlier.

Euro Slips as Dollar Closes Higher

The jobs report helped the greenback close the day on Friday with gains. This was the first positive close after nearly five consecutive sessions of declines.

Economic data from the eurozone was sparse on Friday. As a result, the NFP was the major driver of flows in the EURUSD.

EURUSD Loses the 1.1100 Handle

The currency pair’s rally to the 1.1100 price level hit a snag after the jobs report. As a result, the euro pared gains, turning lower on the day.

In the near term, price could retest the minor support level at 1.1072 which was breached. A successful retest of this level for resistance could push the euro lower. The next lower support is at the 1.1000 handle.

OPEC Announces Deeper Production Cuts

OPEC members including Russia concluded their semi-annual OPEC meeting in Vienna last week. The cartel of oil-producing nations announced even deeper cuts at the meeting which concluded on Friday.

Oil production is set to be cut down by a further 500,000 barrels until March 2020, bringing the total production cuts to 1.7 million barrels. Oil prices rose as a result of the OPEC decision.

WTI Crude Oil at a 3-Month High

Oil prices were bullish, with the price action over the past week indicating that traders were anticipating the bullish news. By Friday’s close, WTI crude oil settled near a three-month high, closing at $59.08. This was after the intraday rally pushed oil to highs of $59.81.

In the near term, oil prices could pullback to the support level of the 57.87 – 57.64 region. But further could come if this support holds.

Gold Slips on Jobs Data

Gold prices fell over 1% on Friday after the blockbuster jobs report. On all front, the payrolls report came out better than forecast.

Wage growth was the only blot, easing to 3.1% on an annual basis, down from 3.2% in October. The solid jobs report now pushes the possibility of a Fed rate cut further down the line.

XAUUSD Could Maintain Bearish Momentum

As XAUUSD broke below the support level of 1460, the Stochastics indicator is pointing to a possible reversal. However, we expect to see the 1460 level being retested once again for resistance.

If this level holds, then XAUUSD will be on track for a move lower to the 1445 level of support in the near term.

By Orbex

By CentralBankNews.info
Kazakhstan’s central bank left its base rate unchanged at 9.25 percent, saying the current monetary conditions are considered sightly restrictive due to the need for measures to limit the impact on inflation and exchange rate expectations from a widening current account deficit.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), which raised its rate in September by 25 basis points and thus unwound a rate cut in April, added expanding consumer demand and accelerating economic growth remain the main pro-inflationary factors but the current base rate should keep inflation within the target corridor fo 4-6 percent this year and in 2020.
Kazakhstan’s inflation rate eased to 5.4 percent in November from 5.5 percent, with food prices still the main contributor to inflation, hitting a 2019-high of 9.7 percent in October.
Inflationary expectations among the population also rose slightly to 5.8 percent in November from 5.6 percent, with 54.7 percent of those surveyed expecting inflation of the same growth rate over the next 12 months or a slowdown in price growth.
Inflation by the end of this year is forecast in the range of 5.5-5.7 percent, with inflation decelerating to 5.0-5.5 percent by the end of 2020, with the main factors driving inflation still the fiscal stimulus and the positive output gap.
During the first quarter of next year NBK said inflation could approach the upper level of its target due to an increase in regulated tariffs and prices for some food items.
Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.3 percent in the first 9 months of the year, up from a rate of 4.1 percent in the first 8 months, with investments growing 8.2 percent and real wage growth rising to 12 percent in the third quarter.
NBK estimated 2019 growth of 4.2 percent and 3.8 percent in 2020, with the main factors still rising consumer demand from high incomes, higher investment demand due to infrastructure projects and other investment projects, and higher exports of oil and gas sector products.
The Kazakstani tenge has appreciated since mid-October, partly reversing a steady decline since March 2018, and was trading at 385.9 to the U.S. dollar today, still down 2.6 percent this year.

www.CentralBankNews.info

By IFCMarkets

Rising German trade surplus bullish for EURUSD

German trade surplus rose 14.9% over year in October. Will the EURUSD continue rising?

The price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows EURUSD: H1 is in uptrend. The price is rising above the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is rising. The RSI oscillator is above 50 level but has not reached the overbought zone.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By IFCMarkets

Lower US recession risks

Good labor market data came out in the US. This reduced the risks of a slowdown in the global economy. Will Copper prices continue rising?

Nonfarm payrolls in the United States increased by 266 thousand in November, which is a 10-month high. This can significantly reduce recession risks in the US and global economies. In addition, China announced the abolition of certain duties on US goods, which could be a signal of its readiness to continue trade negotiations with the United States.

On the daily timeframe the Copper: D1 is in an uptrend and has already bounced off from its lower boundary for the 3rd time. A number of technical analysis indicators formed buy signals. The chart breached up the 200-day moving average line. The further price growth is possible in case of an increase in demand for copper in China and the US.

• The Parabolic indicator gives a bullish signal.
• The Bollinger bands have narrowed, which indicates low volatility. The upper Bollinger band is titled upward
• The RSI indicator is above 50. It has formed a positive divergence.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case Copper exceeds the three last fractal highs at 2.74. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the lower Bollinger band at 2.59. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (2.59) without reaching the order (2.74), we recommend closing the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By George Prior

The British pound and UK financial assets will surge on a Boris Johnson victory – but the relief for the Brexit-ravaged UK currency will be short-lived, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, comes as sterling hits its highest level since April as Mr Johnson’s Conservatives hold polling leads ahead of Thursday’s general election.

In early Monday trading, the pound was recently up 0.25 per cent on the U.S. dollar, reaching a high of $1.318. It jumped by a similar margin against the euro, with one pound buying 1.1902.

Mr Green notes: “The bounce in the pound is caused by the increasing certainty of a Conservative majority being delivered by Thursday election.

“Should Mr Johnson be returned as PM, the pound can be expected to reach $1.35.

“A hung parliament would intensify current uncertainty – due to there being the possibility of another EU referendum and another Scottish independence referendum.

“The uncertainty would not only weigh on the pound but it would continue to dampen business investment which, of course, will drag on economic growth.”

However, the deVere CEO’s message does come with a warning.

“The pound’s relief rally will be short-lived.  In the medium to long-term Boris Johnson’s Brexit agenda could come back to deliver another bloody nose to the currency,” he says.

“The serious work of negotiating a trade deal only begins on January 31.  There is then only 11 months to achieve this. It will be a race against the clock. Should this mammoth and complex deal not be struck before the December 2020 deadline, the UK will be forced into adopting unfavourable World Trade Organization terms.”

He continues: “This uncertainty will be a large dark cloud looming over the pound throughout 2020, dampening any bounce.

“And should Mr Johnson ultimately fail to meet the tight deadline, the pound, UK financial assets and economic growth will be seriously impacted.”

Mr Green concludes: “Boris Johnson’s approach is likely to produce short-term gain but long-term pain for the pound.

“Investors can help shield themselves from the risks of market uncertainty and position themselves to capitalise on the opportunities through exposure to a broad range of assets, currencies and geographic regions.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is forming the third descending wave towards 1.1026. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 1.1067 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the first target at 1.1019.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 1.3166, GBPUSD has completed the descending impulse towards 1.3100; right now, it is consolidating around 1.3138. According to the main scenario, the pair is expected to break 1.3100 to the downside and then continue moving inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 1.3000.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the short-term target at 0.9855, USDCHF has completed the correction towards 0.916; right now, it is moving downwards. Possibly, today the pair may form a new descending structure towards 0.9880 and then consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may start a new decline to reach 0.9835; if to the upside – form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9990.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 108.66. Today, the pair may fall to break 108.27 and then start a new correction with the short-term target at 107.05.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is correcting inside Flag pattern to reach 0.6806. After that, the pair may grow towards 0.6834, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another growth to reach 0.6860; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6700.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is moving downwards. Possibly, the pair may break 63.61 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 63.15. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to return o 63.61 and test it from below.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 1.3282 and then form a new descending structure to break 1.3188. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend with the first target at 1.3100.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is falling with the target at 1457.87. After that, the instrument may start a new correction towards 1468.46 and then resume moving downwards with the short-term target at 1448.45.

BRENT

After breaking 64.50 to the upside, Brent is trading to test this level from above. The main scenario implies that the price may continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 68.00.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is consolidating around 7330.00. Possibly, the pair may break this range to the upside and reach the first target at 8165.00, at least. Later, the market may start another correction towards 7400.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the descending wave at 38.2% fibo, XAUUSD is correcting. The first correctional wave reached 23.6% fibo, while the second one tried to reach 38.2% fibo at 1488.16, but failed and the pair fell instead. The next wave may break the above-mentioned level and then continue growing towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 1501.30 and 1514.30 respectively. After completing the correctional uptrend, the instrument may break the local low at 1445.60 and continue falling towards its mid-term target, which is 50.0% fibo at 1413.85.

In the H1 chart, the divergence made the pair start a new descending correctional wave, which has reached 76.0% fibo, thus indicating a new wave to the upside to reach the local high at 1486.05.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the divergence made the pair stop growing at the mid-term high at start a new descending wave, which has almost reached 50.0% fibo. After breaking this level and fixing below it, the price may continue falling towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.9800 and 0.9748 respectively.

In the H1 chart, after finishing a quick descending wave, USDCHF is correcting and has almost reached 38.2% fibo at 0.9919. The next correctional targets may be 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.9939 and 0.9959 respectively. The support is the low at 0.9855.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Great traders are often the result of dedication to principle, theory, price study, and a solid understanding of Intermarket market dynamics.  The one thing that can’t be taught, though, is experience behind the screens and with the markets.

The longer a trader spends working with the charts, trading the markets and studying the trends/indicators, the more knowledge, experience, and capability that trader has in being able to see and predict future price moves.

We believe it is the same way with other professions in life – a professional race car driver, a professional pilot or ship captain.  Any profession where an individual is “at the helm” of some vehicle, instrument or live-action event, that individual will, over time, hone his/her skills to be able to foresee and manage certain aspects of the live operation better than someone without the experience.

One might want to call this a “sixth-sense”, but we believe it is simply applied knowledge and experience.  These individuals see and feel things that others simply miss or brush off as unimportant.

Trading is the same way and traders will become better and more skilled by following the charts very closely and watching how price reacts to geopolitical and regional economic events.

One of our primary price modeling tools is what we call the V10.  It has gone through a number of revisions over the years and is capable of running on almost any chart, in any time-frame.

What we learn from using this tool is when and how price rotates, confirms trend changes, sets up new triggers and more.  It also helps us to identify price cycles, when we should add-to positions, trim profits or expect a new market rally or correction.

Before you continue, take a second and join my free trend trade signals email list.

V10 Trend Trading Strategy – Average Trade 45 Days

As we expand the use of the V10 price modeling system into other markets, you’ll see how changes in price trends can assist us in seeing into the future and preparing for price rotation that others may miss completely.

Natural Gas V10 Chart Analysis

This NG chart highlights a number of price trend rotations (from RED to ORANGE to GREEN, or from GREEN to ORANGE to RED).  Each time the color leaves a primary trend color (GREEN OR RED) we have an early warning signal that price rotation is setting up.

You can see the initial uptrend in late August we set up by a RED to ORANGE trend change.  The same thing happened in late October.  Now, a GREEN to ORANGE trend change setup near mid-November warning us that NG was going to move lower in the future.

These types of setups appear in all types of charts, asset classes, and time-frames and soon we will make different versions available so we have long term investing, trend trading, swing trading, and momentum trader signals.

The Power of Cycles Within Price Action

When attempting to interpret price modeling systems or indicators with cycle analysis utilities, it is important to understand that cycles don’t drive price moves.  Price moves drive cycle rotations.  Knowing when price cycles are topping or bottoming can assist traders in understanding where and when new trade setups are viable and when to trim profits off existing trades.

If we know when the most active and relevant cycle is trending, topping or bottoming and the expected cycle length for a potential price trend, then we can make a more informed determination about the viability of the trade setup and risk factors.

We are also able to use the price modeling systems and cycle modeling systems to better understand how far price may move, when we may begin to see price weakness in the trend and other important factors to help us manage our trade properly and reduce risks.  This is where things get really interesting and exciting.

Example SP500 Predicted Price Move

How I Predict Future Price Movement

This last chart shows you the price of Natural Gas futures.  We have overlaid our proprietary Cycle Modeling tool onto it so you can clearly see how the price has moved in alignment with the cycles.  Follow the LIGHT BLUE cycle line on the chart and try to understand that the range/height of the cycle lines does not correlate to price levels.  They represent the “intensity” of the cycle peak or trough.

A higher peak on the cycle line suggests this upside cycle peak has a higher intensity/probability than a lower cycle peak.  We gauge these rotations as a measure of intensity or amplitude.  Lower cycle troughs suggest a price bottom may have more intensity/amplitude in price than a moderately higher cycle trough.

Follow the three-cycle lows starting near early October on this chart.  Each of them resulted in deeper Cycle troughs on our Cycle modeling tool.  Yet, the real price reaction was to set up a small inverted Head-n-Shoulders bottom pattern.  The last cycle trough low didn’t result in a deeper price level, but it did result in the completion of the bottom pattern that prompted an immediate upside price rally – more intensity.

We’ve also highlighted some of our most recent trades related to our analysis using the V10 and our Cycle modeling tool.  +35% over the past 4 months on three successful trades – we’re pretty happy about that.

Also, keep in mind that we are not showing you what the cycle modeling tool or the V10 is predicting for the future.  We reserve that for our valued subscribers/members.  We know where the cycle and other predictive modeling systems are telling us the price will go, but we can’t share it with you (yet).

Concluding Thoughts:

Since 2001, our focus has been on learning and mastering the tools we have developed and use as well as the Cycle Modeling tools so that we can follow the markets more closely, learn to provide better opportunities and attempt to identify the highest probability trades for our members.

What we never expected was that our efforts to study, learn and apply these tools would provide us with that “sixth-sense” ability to attempt to see into the future and to attempt to predict 10 to 20+ days into the future.

Our modeling tools share opportunities with us all over the markets and across multiple instruments and time-frames.  We recently posted our gold and gold miners price/cycle forecast here. We focus on Daily and 30-minute intervals for our members, but we see these opportunities across all levels intervals – from 1 minute all the way to monthly/quarterly.

The one thing we are certain of is that our members continually write to us about how important it is to them to have us explain the setups, trends, cycles and future market implications to them in our daily market videos.  They don’t have to try to learn to do this type of cycle research on their own, we give them the details every morning before the markets open and any trade signal we have for SP500, gold, oil, nat gas, bonds, and more.

Visit my website at TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen
Found of Technical Traders Ltd.