InvestMacro

By CentralBankNews.info
Mongolia’s central bank kept its policy rate at 11.0 percent but raised the mandatory foreign currency reserves ratio by 300 basis points to 15.0 percent to maintain the relative yield of the tughrik and reduce the fluctuations in its exchange rate.
The Bank of Mongolia (BOM), which has kept the rate steady since raising it by 100 basis points at an unscheduled monetary policy meeting in November 2018 to bolster the tughrik, said it had discussed lowering the interest rate in light of slowing economic growth but decided not to change the rate at this point given uncertainty over the government budget and the external environment.
The tughrik has been depreciating since April 2018 and fell 8 percent last year amid growing external deficits, a fiscal deficit, and the impact of China’s decision to limit coal imports.
This year the depreciating has slowed as inflation has stabilized and begun to decline while global interest rates have dropped.
Today the tughrik was trading at 2737 to the U.S. dollar,  down 3.7 percent this year.
Mongolia’s inflation rate fell to 5.2 percent in November, the lowest since August 2017, from 7.6 percent in October, and below BOM’s current target of 8.0 percent.
Mongolia’s economy was hit hard in 2016 when foreign investment collapsed after a fall in the prices of its major exports of coal and copper.
The following year the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Mongolia agreed on a 3-year, $425 million loan as part of a total financing package worth $5.5 billion that was supported by Japan, South Korea, the World Bank and the Asia Development Bank.
This helped Mongolia’s economy recover last year, with the fiscal balance turning into a surplus and international reserves rising.
“Notwithstanding this progress, Mongolia remains vulnerable to external shocks given its high debt levels and the economy’s dependence on mineral exports,” IMF said in September, adding the country’s economic outlook remains strong despite headwinds.
Mongolia’s economic growth rate declined to 6.3 percent in the first nine months of the year from 7.3 percent in the first half and BOM said growth is expected to slow due to the uncertain environment and slowing growth in investments.
But budget expenditures and rising salaries from continuing large investment projects should support domestic demand next year and export prices remain at a relatively favorable level, BOM said.
IMF forecast in September 2019 growth would remain above 6.5 percent and then moderate to around 5-6 percent in the medium term.
Earlier this month Mongolia’s parliament, known as the State Great Khural, approved the 2020 monetary policy guidelines, with BOM tasked with stabilizing consumer price inflation at 20 percent in 2020 and around 6 percent in the medium term.
At some point in the future stable inflation will become BOM’s monetary policy target, the parliament also decided.

www.CentralBankNews.info

By IFCMarkets

Lower cotton supply estimate bullish for Cotton price

US cotton production and ending stocks were downgraded in WASDE December report. Will the Cotton price rise continue?

December’s outlook for US cotton in 2019/20 included lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, according to US Department of Agriculture’s final World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Production was lowered by 611,000 bales mainly due to a 500,000-bale decline in Texas. Ending stocks are estimated 600,000 bales lower this month, at 5.5 million. And the global 2019/20 cotton forecasts include lower beginning stocks and production, largely offset by lower consumption. Lower US production and ending stocks are bullish for cotton price. And further increase in price when large money managed funds are short cotton by 3,000 contracts will create additional support from forced closing of short positions.

On the Daily timeframe Cotton: D1 is rising. Price is trading above the 50 and 100 day moving averages MA(50) and MA(100).

• The Parabolic Indicator gives a buy signal.
• The Donchian channel indicates uptrend: it is narrowing up.
• The RSI indicator is flat above 50.
• The MACD indicator gives bullish signal: it is above the signal line and the gap is widening.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 68. A level above this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian boundary at 64.87. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (64.87) without reaching the order (above 68), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Nearing the end of 2019, our research team continues to attempt to dissect the market rally in an effort to present credible research and timely insights to skilled technical traders.  We recently authored a research article discussing the potential that the US Stock market is less than 2.5% away from a major resistance level that could prompt a massive market top.  You can read our research related to these Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs here.

This recent research leads us to revisit the recent blow-off rotation in recent markets.  The typical market cycle moves from through these cycles Stealth Phase, the Awareness Phase, the Mania Phase and finally to the Blow-Off Phase.  The Stealth Phase is where the smart money pours into the market taking advantage of undervalued assets/equities.  The Awareness phase is where more traditional and retail investors pile into assets that have formed traditional bottom formation and started to rally.  The Mania Phase is when enthusiasm and greed take over and when the market moves higher in a parabolic price mode – ultimately reaching a massive top.  Then, we start the Blow-Off Phase which usually starts with a deep “R” type price rotation – followed by extended selling.

Before you continue, take a couple of seconds and join our free trend signals email list here.

We’ve seen these types of market phases play out over the past 20+ years multiple times.  The DOTCOM market breakdown, the 2009 Credit Market Crisis, and the 2017 BITCOIN breakdown.  One of the clearest examples in history was the 1929 Stock Market Crash.

The effort of our research team is to highlight the recent rally mode in the US stock market after the 2018 US Stock Market rotation (January 2018 and August 2018).  If you pay very close attention to the details of these actual price rotations in the examples below, you’ll notice that every ultimate peak happened after a period of moderately deep price rotation and an extended upside price rally (an exhaustion rally).  In every example, this rotation setup the exhaustion rally which ultimately set up the massive price peak/top.

We believe the rotation in the US stock market in 2018 exhibited the exact same price setup and the current upside price rally is the exhaustion rally that will ultimately set up a massive price peak/top.  We’ve highlighted our research team’s expectations in the S&P500 chart below.

The fact that this potential price peak aligns with our GREEN Fibonacci price amplitude arc presents another clear example that massive resistance exists near 3200 in the S&P.  The phases of the extended market rally, lasting just over 10 years now, align nearly perfectly with the previous examples of major market tops and a Blow-Off Phase.

Our research team believes the resistance level near 3200 on the S&P will likely result in a downside price rotation setting up an “R” type price move.  Once this completes, a Blow-Off phase could begin rather quickly.  We believe the expansion of the markets has reached a point well past a euphoric phase and the rotation in 2018 setup the perfect exhaustion rally phase.  We believe it is just a matter of time at this point before the Blow-Off phase begins.

We would be surprised if the S&P rallied far beyond the 3200 price level before setting up the “R” price rotation.  We believe the first 3 to 5 months of 2020 will create the “R” price setup before broader market concerns take hold – potentially bursting investor enthusiasm.

All this could be the start of the next real estate crash we explain here.

Don’t miss these next moves in the markets.  Our research goes beyond traditional types of analysis and our research team is dedicated to helping you protect your assets and wealth.

In short, rotations in ETFs, such as this potential move in WOOD, will continue to set up and rotate throughout the 2020 election event and beyond we’ll keep you informed as this plays out with Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter. Join us with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis. Get a Free 1oz Silver Round or Gold Bar Shipped To You as a Bonus!

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd.

TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing another descending structure towards 1.1106 and returning to 1.1126, EURUSD is forming a new descending wave to reach 1.1104. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards 1.1116 and then start another decline with the target at 1.1098.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has finished another descending structure towards 1.3000; right now, it is consolidating below 1.3030. The main scenario implies that that the pair may fall towards 1.2920 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.3155.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After breaking 0.9797 downwards, USDCHF has reached 0.9770; right now, it is correcting to return to 0.9797. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 0.9765.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After breaking 109.39 and reaching the short-term target at 109.18, USDJPY has tested 109.39 from below. Possibly, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 109.14 and then start another growth with the target at 109.50.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached the upside target at 0.6898. Possibly, today the pair may fall towards 0.6868 and then resume moving upwards with the short-term target at 0.6929.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB moving downwards to reach 62.25. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 62.60 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 62.02.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is correcting towards 1.3144. Possibly, the pair may reach this level and then form a new descending structure with the target at 1.3123. After that, the instrument may consolidate around 1.3123 and then resume falling to reach 1.3088.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1476.16; it has expanded the range towards 1481.25. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure towards 1477.04 and then resume trading upwards to reach 1484.33. Later, the market may start another decline with the target at 1471.48.

BRENT

Brent is consolidating around 66.66. Possibly, today the pair may form a new ascending wave towards 67.07. After that, the instrument may start another decline to return to 66.12 and then continue the uptrend with the target at 68.50.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is correcting with the target at 7220.00. Later, the market may resume the downtrend with the short-term target is at 6900.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, the descending tendency continues. After updating the local low, BTCUSD has returned to 61.8% fibo. Considering the convergence on MACD, this movement may be described as a short-term correction. The resistance is 50.0% fibo at 8490.00. After completing the correction, the pair may resume falling towards the target at 76.0% (5700.00). The key mid-term downside target is the low at 3121.90.

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current local correction. By now, the pair has managed to reach 23.6% fibo; at the moment, the price is trading close to this level. The next rising impulse may later continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 7995.00 and 8480.00 respectively. If the price breaks the local support at 6430.30, the correction will be over.

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, the downtrend has broken 76.0% fibo; right now, ETHUSD is heading towards this year’s low at 80.86 and must break a psychologically-crucial of 100.00 on its way. The resistance is 61.8% fibo at 189.00.

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current correction, which is getting close to 100.00. At the same time, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a new pullback soon.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By IFCMarkets

Narrowing UK current account deficit bullish for GBPUSD

The UK current account deficit narrowed by £8.3 billion to £15.9 billion in Quarter 3. Will the GBPUSD rise?

On 4-hour timeframe GBPUSD: H4 is in downtrend, poised to test the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is level. The RSI indicator is below 50 but has not reached the oversold zone.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

by JustForex

During yesterday’s trading, the US dollar was being traded without changes relative to a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday near local lows (-0.01%). The US has published some weak economic releases. Thus, initial jobless claims rose to 234K, while experts forecasted 225K. Philadelphia Fed employment counted to 0.3 in December instead of 8.0. Existing home sales fell to 5.35M in November instead of 5.44M.

Financial market participants assess meetings of key Central Banks. Swiss National Bank raised the core interest rate to 0 from -0.25% per annum. The Bank of Japan kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The regulator improved the forecast for the country’s economic growth for 2020. The Bank of England left the core interest rate at 0.75% per annum following a meeting on Thursday. The regulator also kept the volume of the program for the purchase of government bonds unchanged at 435 billion pounds ($541.5 billion) and corporate bonds at 10 billion pounds. At the same time, the forecast for UK GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 was worsened to 0.1% from 0.2%.

The “black gold” prices have been declining after a continuous growth. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $60.90 mark per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.41%), #DIA (+0.44%), #QQQ (+0.63%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has not changed. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.94-1.95%.

• – GDP data in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – US GDP data at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Core retail sales in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By Orbex

The US Department of Commerce will be releasing the final revision to the third-quarter GDP numbers.

Economists polled, do not expect to see many changes. Expectations are therefore flat, pointing to an unchanged print in the GDP at 2.1%. In the second revised estimates, the US GDP was bumped up from 1.9% initially to 2.1%.

While the figures are well below the 3% threshold, investors saw a silver lining in the fact that growth was still evident.

Besides the GDP data, other indicators include the personal consumption expenditure, personal spending, and income data as well. Therefore, it is more likely that the large data set will have an impact in some way.

Across all measures, economists do not expect any major changes. The GDP price index is forecast to hold steady at 1.7% while the expenditure prices will remain at 1.5%.

The previous revisions to the GDP were released on November 27^th. Since then, there haven’t been any more fresh releases between the periods of November 27^th and today when the final revised figures are due.

There is no doubt that the growth rate in the United States has turned weaker. But data suggests that the momentum is still there. This is further fueled by the fact that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times so far.

Will US GDP Rebound in the Coming Quarters?

The answer to that remains dependant on a lot of variables. There is evidence that growth, both domestically and globally, is slowing.

A number of factors are attributed to this. Particularly, the uncertainty of the US-China trade war was a major factor.

But with recent reports indicating that a trade deal has been reached, there is still some skepticism. A lot will depend on the finer details of the trade pact. For the moment, the US administration has agreed to cut some existing tariffs.

The new set of tariffs due to kick in on December 15^th was also postponed. From China’s part, it is expected to raise its purchases from the United States, especially in the agricultural sector.

Given that this is not the final deal, but rather just a small step, the uncertainty from the trade remains prevalent.

Elsewhere, investors are also concerned about sluggish inflation. But the recent rate cuts by the Fed will need some time to see the effects. At its recent December meeting, the Fed also announced that it will keep interest rates steady for the whole of next year.

But, currently, speculation is rife that there is a chance of a rate cut once again in March. This entirely depends on the way the economy will perform.

The US labor market remains one of the lone bright spots in the economy. Data for November indicated that the US unemployment rate fell to 3.5% while the economy was seen adding 200k + jobs.

Impact of the Final Revised GDP Figures

From a trader’s perspective, the impact of the GDP figures will not be that high, considering that this is for the period covering the three months ending September.

Investors are more keen to see the present data that will shed light on the performance of the current, Q4 GDP performance.

Still, there is a small chance of an impact, if the data revisions turn out to be high on either side. We already noticed a bit of cheer in the markets when the second revisions turned out to be higher.

By Orbex

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.11128
• Open: 1.11215
• % chg. over the last day: +0.09
• Day’s range: 1.11138 – 1.11249
• 52 wk range: 1.0879 – 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading in a long flat. There is no defined trend. EUR/USD quotes test local support and resistance levels at 1.11100 and 1.11350, respectively. Yesterday, the US published a number of weak economic releases. Market participants expect up-to-date information regarding trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Today, investors will evaluate important statistical data from the United States. Open positions from key levels.

At 15:30 the US GDP report will be published.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is consolidating near 50 MA.

The MACD histogram has moved into the negative zone, indicating a bearish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.11100, 1.10900, 1.10600
• Resistance levels: 1.11350, 1.11550, 1.11700

If the price consolidates above 1.11350, expect the quotes to rise toward 1.11600-1.11800.

Alternatively, the quotes could drop toward 1.10800-1.10600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.30801
• Open: 1.30083
• % chg. over the last day: -0.46
• Day’s range: 1.30056 – 1.30372
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3516

GBP / USD quotes continue to show a steady downtrend. The trading instrument has set new local lows. Sterling remains under pressure due to uncertainty over the Brexit issue. Yesterday, the Bank of England, as expected, kept the basic parameters of monetary policy at the same level. At the moment, the GBP / USD currency pair is consolidating in the range of 1.29900-1.30650. The pound has the potential to further decline. Investors expect the release of important economic reports. Open positions from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+2:00), a report on UK GDP will be published.

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.29900, 1.29500
• Resistance levels: 1.30650, 1.31350, 1.32100

f the price consolidates below 1.29900, expect a further drop toward 1.29500-1.29300.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.31300-1.31500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.31140
• Open: 1.31210
• % chg. over the last day: +0.03
• Day’s range: 1.31210 – 1.31378
• 52 wk range: 1.3014 – 1.3664

An ambiguous technical pattern has developed on the USD/CAD currency pair. Looney is currently consolidating. USD/CAD quotes are testing the local offer area of 1.31350-1.31500. 1.31000 is the key support. We consider the further strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the greenback highly possible and expect the release of important economic releases from the USA and Canada. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of prices for oil. Open positions from key levels.

At 15:30 (GMT+2: 00) Canada will publish a retail sales report.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram has started to rise, indicating a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.31000, 1.30700
• Resistance levels: 1.31350, 1.31500, 1.31800

the price consolidates below the round level of 1.31000, expect a descend toward 1.30700-1.30500.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.31700-1.32000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.575
• Open: 109.364
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13
• Day’s range: 109.255 – 109.401
• 52 wk range: 104.45 – 113.53

The USD/JPY currency pair went down. The trading tool has updated local lows. The lack of new information regarding the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as the uncertain situation on the Brexit issue, renewed the demand for the safe haven currencies. At the moment, USD/JPY quotes are consolidating in the range 109.200-109.400. The yen has the potential for further growth relative to the US currency. Today we recommend paying attention to the news background from the USA. Open positions from key levels.

In November, Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index accelerated to 0.5% (y/y) from 0.4% (y/y).

Indicators signal the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and continues to decline, which gives a strong signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.200, 109.050, 108.850
• Resistance levels: 109.400, 109.650, 110.000

If the price consolidates below 109.200, expect the quotes to descend toward 109.000-108.800.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 109.600-109.800.

by JustForex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events December 20, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we approach the weekly close, and the last trading day of the year which carries a realistic chance of seeing some elevated volatility before the holiday season kicks off (Trading Hour Schedule for the 2019 Christmas & New Year Holiday Period), we want to take a look at the DAX30 CFD again.

Traders could see some heavier swings in the German index today since today is the last big expiration in the DAX-Future with data from the EUREX showing that there is relatively high interest at the 13,400 point mark.

Price action over the last days has clearly shown that market participants are interested in holding the DAX30 CFD below 13,400 points.

But if bulls gain control and we get to see an attack and break before 12pm GMT (this time Futures and Options expire at the EUREX), a short-squeeze could be the result, pushing the German index in an expected thin market environment up to 13,600 and into the region of current all-time highs.

In general, and from a technical basis, this stays an option as long as the DAX30 CFD trades above 13,080/100 points, and if we don’t get to see such a push higher today (which seems likely, given the fact that the DAX30 CFD currently trades substantially below 13,400 points), such a run has an elevated chances to be seen into the start of 2020:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Houry chart (between December 2, 2019, to December 19, 2019). Accessed: December 19, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between September 12, 2018, to December 19, 2019). Accessed: December 19, 2019, at 10:00 PM GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 2.65%, in 2015, it increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 10.5%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
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By Admiral Markets