InvestMacro

By Orbex

Gold

The yellow metal ended the week lower ultimately as the US dollar managed to rebound on stronger than expected data late in the week.

Gold had initially been higher on the week as the USD came under pressure following weaker than expected CPI readings for December.

However, on Thursday, both Retail Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surprised to the upside. Retail sales printed 0.7% MoM, far above the expected 0.3% reading. The Philly Fed read printed a solid 17 against an expected 3.7.

The data fuelled a sharp reversal in USD sentiment, which saw a diminished demand for gold. This, in turn, eroded the yellow metal’s weekly gains.

Gold demand was also weighed on over the week by the rise in equities prices. The markets cheered the signing of the US/China trade deal, with the SPX500 trading into fresh, record highs.

The support from the deal will not be permanent, however. To keep equities bid, traders will need to see solid steps in the second phase of negotiations.

Technical Perspective

Gold prices are still fighting it out around the 1554.69 2019 highs. The rejection from 1608.54 has not yet seen proper follow-through and if price can hold above the broken 2019 highs, focus will be on a further push higher within the broad bullish channel which has framed price action over the last year. Only a break back below the 1522.75 level will alter this view.

Silver

Silver prices tracked the moves in gold and moved lower over the week as the boost to risk appetite from the signing of the US/China trade deal, as well as a resurgent USD, weighed on silver.

Its been a volatile few weeks for metals, which had initially been far higher on the year in response to the breakout of fresh hostilities between the US and Iran.

However, with that situation cooled down, for now, metals have seen reduced safe-haven demand as focus turns back to the relentless rise in equities.

Technical Perspective

It continues to be a tale of two trend lines in silver. The breakout above the first bearish trend line was then capped by two tests of the longer-term bearish trend line.

However, price is still holding above the 17.3408 level and while above here, a further test of the 18.6397 level is still viable. To the downside, a break of 17.3408 would pave the way for a test of the 16.52 level next.

By Orbex

By IFCMarkets

Technical setup is bullish for XPTUSD

On the daily timeframe the XPTUSD: D1 has has hit all-time high above rising 200-day moving average MA(200).

We believe the bullish momentum will resume after the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 1038.76. A level above this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below last fractal low at 945.13. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (945.13) without reaching the order (1038.76), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

Equities continue to remain poised to the upside due to a number of factors.

The US-China trade deal brought a modest reaction. Investors expect that there is still a lot to do.

Economic data from the US saw retail sales beating estimates breathing life into the US dollar.

Euro Slips on Stronger US Retail Sales

The euro gave up the gains from earlier this week. Retail sales in the United States beat estimates, rising 0.7% on the core in December.

Headline retail sales were in line with estimates of a 0.3% increase on the month. The data pointed to a solid close for the year.

EURUSD Gives Up Gains, but Momentum is Weak

The common currency continues to drift as prices retreat, giving up the gains from the previous session. The overall price action is suggesting to a potential bearish flag pattern on the daily chart. This means that a break down off the 1.1100 region could signal further declines on the horizon.

Sterling Rises as Weaker Inflation Lowers Odds of a Rate Cut

The pound sterling is trading stronger against the US dollar. This comes as investors are betting on a potential rate cut from the BoE as early as January. The interest rate decision will come ahead of flash PMIs. Earlier this week, inflation data saw a decline which eases pressure on the BoE in some way.

GBPUSD Maintains a Corrective Rally For Now

The currency pair rebounded off the support as noted previously. The current gains remain in place as GBPUSD remains on track to retest the 1.3100 level. If resistance is established, we expect prices to remain range-bound. But a lot will depend on the fundamentals, especially closer to the BoE meeting.

Gold Prices Remain Soft Amid Global Narratives

The precious metal is trading on the backfoot on Thursday. The declines came as gold gave a muted response to the China trade deal. The stronger USD managed to put some pressure on the precious metal. However, gold prices are staying resilient despite a broad build-up in risk appetite.

Will XAUUSD Decline Further?

Although the bias remains to the downside, XAUUSD is staying somewhat stronger. The hidden bearish divergence remains in play for the moment. But if prices continue to drift, we could expect the upside bias to build up. For the moment, the downside target remains at the support level of 1534.00. But a breakout above 1558 will, of course, change the view.

By Orbex

By Orbex

USD Riding High

The US dollar is ending the week on a much better note than it started. Stronger than expected data yesterday (retail sales & Philly Fed both better beat) has helped lift the dollar into the end of the week. USD index trades 97.13 last.

Euro Lower on USD Rally

EURUSD has been lower over the final European morning on the week, weighed on by the recovery in USD. Yesterday, the release of the ECB December minutes showed a more optimistic tone. Policymakers were far less divided than in recent meetings and sounded more optimistic over the outlook for the Eurozone economy. Despite the better tone, EURUSD trades 1.1189 last.

GBP Down on Data Miss

GBPUSD has been sharply lower today as retail sales for December were bitterly disappointing at -0.6% vs an expected 0.5% reading. This is the latest in a string of weak data points for the UK with GDP and inflation all missing this week also. The market is now increasing its expectations of a forthcoming BOE rate cut, weighing on GBP. GBPUSD trades 1.3060 last.

SPX500 Hits New Highs

Risk assets have been well supported across the week and are ending higher on Friday with the SPX500 trading into new highs at 3325.78 last. The signing of the US/China trade deal has been a big boost for risk appetite over the week with the market now hopeful that talks can progress quickly onto a phase two deal. Another week passing without any further US/Iran tension has also been welcomed by traders.

JPY & Gold Lower

Safe havens have been weaker so far today with both JPY and gold lower against USD. The rally in equities along with the recovery in USD late in the week has put pressure on both. XAUUSD trades 1554.37 last, just below the 1554.69 level. USDJPY trades 110.17 last, having broken out above recent highs.

Crude Rallies On Inventories Draw

Oil prices have been higher on Friday, taking crude back up to even on the week, as of writing. The EIA this week reported an unexpected 2.5 million barrel drawdown which helped lift prices. The signing of the US/China trade deal has also offered support and is expected to provide a buffer in the near term despite the large bearish weekly candle posted last week.

Loonie Looking Good

USDCAD has been a little higher today with the rally in USD helping lift the pair, despite the rally in crude. CAD has been under pressure recently given the heavy sell-off in crude last week. Next week the BOC will meet though no rate cut is expected.

Aussie Flat on Friday

AUDUSD has been a little weaker over the European morning on Friday though has, at least, recovered most initial losses. The rally in USD has stemmed upside in the pair which came on the back of a solid Chinese industrial production reading overnight. AUDUSD trades .6903 last.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has reached 1.1171; right now, it is forming a new descending wave towards 1.1113. Later, the market may start another growth with the target at 1.1190.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 1.3094 and then form a new descending structure to break 1.2985 and then continue trading inside the downtrend reach the short-term target at 1.2901.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is forming the first ascending impulse towards 0.9665. After that, the instrument may correct to reach 0.9638 and then start a new growth with the target at 0.9687.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After forming the consolidation range, USDJPY has broken it to the upside at 109.99. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to extend the wave up to 110.25 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 109.98. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 110.53.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.6930, AUDUSD has finished the correction towards 0.6884, thus forming a new consolidation range. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume moving upwards to reach 0.6990; it to the downside – continue the correction towards 0.6803.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB continues consolidating around 61.50. Possibly, the pair may break it upwards to reach 61.94. Later, the market may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 60.70.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is moving upwards. Today, the pair may break the range to the upside and reach the target at 1.3069. After that, the instrument may resume falling with the target at 1.3055 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.3082.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is consolidating around 1553.43. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1559.00 and then resume trading inside the downtrend to return to 1553.43.

BRENT

Brent is moving upwards to reach 65.27. Later, the market may start a new correction towards 64.50 and then resume trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 66.10.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is still consolidating at the top. Possibly, today the pair may break the range upwards to reach 8856.00 and then start a new correction towards 8448.00. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 8952.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, BTCUSD continues the correctional uptrend; it has already fixed above the mid-term resistance at 50.0% fibo (8500.00) and may continue towards 38.2% fibo at 9765.00. the current movement may be considered as a new rising impulse to reach the high. However, the price won’t probably start a long rising movement as long as the instrument hasn’t broken the current target level.

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current ascending tendency. The pair is trading towards 38.2% fibo at 9262.00 and may later even reach 50.0% fibo at 10142.00. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate a new pullback after the price reaches its target. The support is still the low at 6430.30.

ETHUSD, “Ethereum vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, after reaching 76.0% fibo, ETHUSD has correcting quite fast. After the convergence on MACD, the pair is moving to test 61.8% fibo at 189.00.

The H4 chart shows more detailed structure of the current correction. The pair is moving very close to 23.6% fibo at 174.30 and may continue growing towards 38.2% fibo at 210.20. The support is the low at 116.06.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.11496
• Open: 1.11351
• % chg. over the last day: -0.12
• Day’s range: 1.11310 – 1.11426
• 52 wk range: 1.0879 – 1.1572

An ambiguous technical picture has developed on the EUR/USD currency pair. Quotes are in lateral movement. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.11200 and 1.11450, respectively. Greenback demand rose after the publication of optimistic statistics on US retail sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia County. Today, investors also expect the release of important economic releases. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 17.01.2020:

• – data on inflation in the eurozone – 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – statistics on the real estate market in the USA – 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.11200, 1.10900
• Resistance levels: 1.11450, 1.11700, 1.12000

If the price consolidates above 1.11450, expect the quotes to rise toward 1.11700-1.11900.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.10900-1.10800.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.30373
• Open: 1.30777
• % chg. over the last day: +0.29
• Day’s range: 1.30641 – 1.30901
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3516

On the GBP/USD currency pair, bullish sentiment prevails. The pound again updated local highs. At the moment, GBP / USD quotes are testing the resistance level of 1.30900. Mark 1.30450 is already a mirror support. A trading instrument has the potential for further recovery. Today, participants in financial markets will evaluate important statistics on the UK economy. We also recommend paying attention to the news background from the USA. Open positions from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+2:00), a report on the retail sales in the UK will be published.

The price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA, which signals the strength of buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, indicating a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also gives a signal to buy GBP/USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.30450, 1.30000, 1.29600
• Resistance levels: 1.30900, 1.31400, 1.31700

If the price consolidates above the level of 1.30900, further growth of GBP/USD quotes is expected. The potential movement is to 1.31300-1.31600.

An alternative could be a decrease in the GBP / USD currency pair to 1.30200-1.30000.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.30424
• Open: 1.30415
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03
• Day’s range: 1.30389 – 1.30525
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.3566

CAD continues to consolidate in a fairly narrow range. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. USD / CAD quotes test local support and resistance levels: 1.30350 and 1.30550, respectively. A trading instrument has a downside potential. We are waiting for statistics on the US real estate market. We also recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of prices of black gold. Open positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 17.01.2020 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.30350, 1.30200, 1.30000
• Resistance levels: 1.30550, 1.30750, 1.31000

If the price consolidates below 1.30350, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.30000-1.29800.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 1.30750-1.31000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.899
• Open: 110.138
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27
• Day’s range: 110.138 – 110.290
• 52 wk range: 104.45 – 113.53

On the USD/JPY currency pair, purchases still prevail. The trading instrument has set new local highs. At present, the currency of the “safe haven” is consolidating near the resistance level of 110.300. 109.850 is the immediate support. USD/JPY quotes have the potential for correction after a long rally. We recommend that you pay attention to the dynamics of yield on US government bonds. Open positions from key levels.

The publication of important economic releases from Japan is not planned.

Indicators point to the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which signals a bullish mood.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which gives a signal to buy USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.850, 109.650, 109.350
• Resistance levels: 110.300, 110.600

If the price consolidates above 110.300, expect further growth toward 110.600-110.800.

Alternatively, the quotes could correct toward 109.600-109.400.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The US currency strengthened against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday in the green zone (+0.11%). Optimistic data on the US economy were published yesterday, which supported the greenback. Thus, core retail sales grew by 0.7% in December, while experts expected growth only by 0.5%. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index counted to 17.0 in January instead of 3.8. Retail sales rose by 0.3% in December, which met experts’ expectations.

Today, during the Asian trading session, optimistic economic data from China have been published. So, GDP (YoY) in the 4th quarter counted to 6.0%, which met the forecasts. Industrial production (YoY) grew by 6.9% in December instead of the forecasted growth by 5.9%.

The “black gold” prices are rising. Currently, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $58.60 mark per barrel. At 20:00 (GMT+2:00), U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count will be published.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, there were purchases in the US stock market: #SPY (+0.83%), #DIA (+0.89%), #QQQ (+0.96%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has risen slightly. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.81-1.82%.

• – Retail sales in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
• – Statistics on the real estate market in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – JOLTS job openings in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events January 17, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

The Japanese Yen has continued to avoid any signs of strength over the last few days, so instead, the USD/JPY saw an upwards push above 110.00, letting the currency pair trade at its highest level since May 2019.

While we still consider the midterm to be bearish for the USD/JPY (particularly due to the fact that the Fed is to continue to flooding markets with billions in liquidity to avoid a funding crisis in the repo market), and market participants, according to the Fed Watch Tool, still expect at least one 25 basis point cut in 2020 with a likelihood of 60%, resulting in limited upside potential for the USD/JPY. So we have to admit that current market conditions are not very favourable for the JPY.

With US inflation coming in at 2.3% year-on-year for last December, the highest level since October 2018, and US Retail Sales (also known as “backbone of the US economy” adding more than 30% to the US GDP) on Thursday matching expectations, the easing potential for the Fed seems limited, leaving, in our opinion, only a broad risk-off as a potential driver lower in the USD/JPY on the table.

And recently, with the signing of the Phase-1 trade deal between the US and China on Wednesday, chances seem good that no near-term tensions between the two countries arise, market conditions should see low volatility and thus unfavourable conditions the JPY.

That said, a sustainable push above 110.00, activating 110.70 is very likely, especially as long as the USD/JPY keeps on trading above 109.50.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between November 6, 2018, to January 16, 2020). Accessed: January 16, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, in 2019, it fell by 0.85%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 9.2%.

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By Admiral Markets

By IFCMarkets

Falling euro zone current account surplus bearish for EURUSD

We believe the bearish momentum will resume after the price breaches below the lower boundary of Donchian channel at 1.1115. A level below this can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above 1.1125. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Summary of technical analysis

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets