InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has broken 1.1230 to the upside and may continue growing towards 1.1512. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to reach 1.1217 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1.1669.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2999 to the upside, GBPUSD has reached 1.3123. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 1.3049 and then form one more ascending structure to reach 1.3130 or even 1.3159. Later, the market may start a new decline with the target at 1.2950.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After breaking 0.9350, USDCHF is still trading downwards. Possibly, the pair may fall to reach 0.9065 and then start a new correction with the target at 0.9460.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After breaking 105.44 to the downside, USDJPY has reached 101.85. Possibly, today the pair may start another growth towards 103.50 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 100.75.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.6657 to the downside, AUDUSD has reached the target at 0.6336. Today, the pair may resume trading upwards to reach 0.6624 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 0.6252.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may break 68.48 and then continue growing with the short-term target at 72.48. After that, the instrument may start a new correction towards 68.50 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 74.24.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

After breaking 1.3460, USDCAD has reached 1.3707. Later, the market may correct towards 1.3520 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the key target at 1.3850.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After finishing the ascending wave at 1694.40, Gold is correcting towards 1656.80. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 1715.20.

BRENT

After breaking its consolidation range to the downside at 45.20, Brent has reach 34.20. Today, the pair may consolidate near the current lows. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start a new correction towards 41.75; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 20.65.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After reaching 8200.00 and forming a new consolidation range around 8153.00, BTCUSD has broken it to the downside; right now, it is extending the descending wave with the short-term target at 7600.00. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 8000.00 and then form a new descending structure towards 7150.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By TheTechnicalTraders

The US stock market opened Sunday, March 8, 2020, dramatically lower.  Oil collapsed 25% to near $30.  Gold shot higher to levels just above $1700.  All of the major US indexes were lower than 5%.  As of this morning, the US major indexes are lower by 6.40%, and oil down 23%. Bonds are set to open 7-8% higher at this time.

As mentioned in yesterday’s update, we could see metals and miners get hit with margin calls, and silver took a beating last night down over 5%, and miners are down 5% in pre-market, so things could get uglier yet.

The war on oil has officially started. To me, it’s a typical bully/bad guy move. When everyone is bleeding, and in trouble like the financial markets, everyone’s mental state, and our health, the true bullies and bad guys (sharks) come out of the woodwork. Russia is being difficult and will keep production high for oil; the Saudis are giving out hug discounts on oil and jacking up their production to flood the market with their oil and take as much of the market share possibly. When blood is in the water, the sharks attack.

This oil war is going to devastate the USA and Canadian oil sectors and businesses if the price of oil trades between $20-35 per barrel, which I think is what will happen and could last a few years.

The US futures for stock hit a circuit breaker and halted futures trading of the Indexes once a 5% drop took place, but ETF and regular stocks will continue to trade. The next round of circuit breakers are only during regular trading hours and was implemented after the May 10, 2010, flash crash.

This new set of circuit breakers have never been hit before which are:
A drop of 7% stock halt for 15 minutes.
A drop of 13% stocks halt for 15 minutes.
A drop of 20% stocks halt for the rest of the session.

This is a huge breakdown in the US markets and indicates much greater weakness within the global markets and further concern that the COVID-19 virus may continue to disrupt the US and European markets (as well as others).

The potential that multiple billion-dollar disruptions in the US and other foreign markets, including travel, leisure, autos, hospitality, and many others, may see a continued decline in sales and incomes over the next 6+ months.  We don’t believe we will truly understand the total scope of this COVID-19 virus event until possibly well after July 2020.

The crazy part is I’m in a little secluded town in Canada, and people are starting to panic and buy food and toilet paper for their bunker stash. Almost everyone I talked to this weekend while out snowboarding has been affected by manufacturing, trade show cancellations, travel restrictions, etc..  We are in a full out global crisis that seems to affect everyone in some way no matter their location, occupation, or business.

There will be some great opportunities to find and execute incredible trading opportunities – yet the risks are very high right now for volatility and price rotation.  Think of the markets like a body of water in a severe storm.  The waters are very choppy, unstable, and chaotic – just like the markets.

Unless you have the right information, skills, and vehicle to navigate these waters, there is a very high probability that a dangerous outcome could happen. I closed out our last position on Friday with our TLT bond trade for a 20.07% profit and we are 100% cash watching this market VS trying to survive it.

Right now, Cash is king.
Waiting for proper setups and understanding risks is critical.  Timing your entries and targets is critical.  Learning to stay away from excessive risk is essential.

We’ll scan the markets for you and find the best opportunities that set up over the next week.

We appreciate your loyalty and want to continue to deliver superior analysis and research.  Please be well aware that the current market environment is very dangerous for traders.  The VIX recently touched above 50.  We believe it could reach levels above 75~90 still.  These are incredible levels for the VIX.

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Chris Vermeulen
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TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, the long-term trend was a little bit shy of reaching 76.0% fibo at 1708.10. after that, there was a divergence on MACD, which made the pair reverse and start falling. The key downside target may be 50.0% fibo at 1482.50.

In the H4 chart, the correctional downtrend may be followed by a new rising wave. In this case, the upside targets may be above 76.0% fibo (1708.10) inside the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1736.80 and 1767.15 respectively.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the daily chart, the long-term bearish trend continues. The pair is heading towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 0.9094 and 0.8707 respectively. the resistance is the high at 1.0344.

In the H1 chart, the pair is quickly plunging towards 38.2% fibo at 0.9094.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By George Prior

A global recession is now almost inevitable this year, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and services organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as global stocks and government bond yields fell after oil prices plummeted by almost 30 per cent Monday.

He notes: “Oil’s sharpest one-day drop since the 1991 Gulf war has further fuelled the sell-off in global stock markets that started a couple of weeks ago on fears that coronavirus is going to severely damage economic growth.

“Every major stock market is getting hammered as oil prices plunge due to a price war following the breakdown of Saudi Arabia’s oil-cutting alliance with Russia over the weekend.”

He continues: “This is an issue that will not be resolved overnight and it can be expected to have far-reaching consequences.

“It comes as the world scrambles to deal with the market mayhem and economic fallout caused by the relentless global spread of coronavirus.

“With the combination of the implications of the oil stand-off and the outbreak, I now believe that it’s almost inevitable that there will be a global recession this year.”

Before the oil price drop, last week Mr Green noted: “The outbreak has already sent the stock market into bouts of volatility not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, severely disrupted global supply chains, shuttered factories, grounded flights, closed attractions and cancelled major events. Entire powerhouse cities in Asia and Europe are nearly shut down. Multinational companies have warned that coronavirus will severely hit profits. Workers are being evacuated and forced to work from home and to avoid travelling.

“We can see both supply and consumer demand are already being impacted in key sectors, such as travel and tourism, hospitality, manufacturing and retail, and it is going to extend to others.

“This scenario is then likely to feed on itself: a lack of consumer confidence and spending, lack of business investment, more job cuts, which means even less spending and demand, which leads to further job cuts.”

The deVere CEO affirms: “In times of increasing volatility, investors need to ensure that they remain in the markets with their suitably diversified portfolios – not only to safeguard their wealth, but to create and build it too.

“As ever, there will be winners and losers and savvy investors and their financial advisers will be eyeing the opportunities that fluctuations, panic-selling and mis-pricing generate, allowing them to revise and add high quality equities to their portfolios at lower prices.”

Mr Green concludes: “The ultimate impact that the oil price war will have on an already vulnerable world economy that’s struggling to cope with the spread of coronavirus remains unknown.

“However, the risk of a short but severe global recession in 2020 has now been heightened dramatically.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By Orbex

EURAUD Shoots Above 10-year High

The euro has enjoyed a stellar rise against most major counterparts thanks to a combination of fundamental catalysts and technical breakout. The single currency has been sought after as the fallout from the coronavirus took a toll on riskier assets like the Australian dollar.

The markets expect the ECB to follow the Fed and announce stimulus measures on Thursday. This could cause a temporary pullback if buyers take profit around the psychological level of 1.7000. In case of a retracement, 1.6770 will be a major support to maintain the bullish mood.

USDJPY Goes into Sharp Reversal

The Federal Reserve surprised markets last Tuesday with an emergency rate cut to cushion the world’s largest economy from the spread of the coronavirus. While this came in as a welcomed measure, market participants also anticipate deeper easing, possibly at the next FOMC meeting.

As a result, a low-yielding US dollar has come under pressure against safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen. The sell-off may continue if the price closes below the critical support of 104.50. A rebound, should it happen, would meet strong resistance near 107.50.

GBPUSD Recovers on Dollar Weakness

Cable recovered to its previous high of 1.3000 after a short-lived dip as the greenback softened across the board. After BOE Governor Mark Carney admitted that the coronavirus could deal a “large” but temporary blow to Britain’s economy, speculations have grown that the Bank of England might also go down the path of cutting rates to mitigate economic risks.

Against the backdrop of an uncertain Brexit, the pound sterling has limited room on the upside. 1.3200 is a key resistance while 1.2750 is buyers’ stronghold if the greenback makes a comeback.

Gold Surges on Safe-Haven Demand

Gold has found strong buying interest and bounced back to the previous high of 1688. As the US and Europe scramble to contain the outbreak, market sentiment is expected to worsen. We may not yet have seen the bottom in the equity markets, and investors have chosen to put their faith in the precious metal.

Bullion’s rally is likely to sustain should the risk of global recession translate into upcoming economic data. The rebound from the 30-day moving average (1585) was a strong sign that sentiment remains upbeat, for gold. 1730 is the next target as more trend followers join in and bid up the price.

By Orbex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events March 6, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

While the economic calendar is quite thin this week, the strong risk aversion leading up to last week’s close should keep volatility elevated in the German DAX index.

What seems particularly alarming is the very weak reaction to the Fed emergency rate cut last Tuesday.

Last Tuesday morning, an emergency G7 phone call, led by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Fed Chair Powell, didn’t result in any plans of coordinated action by the G7, in regards to fiscal stimulus or a coordinated rate cut by central banks. There was only some vague rhetoric that they are to carefully watch upcoming developments in the Coronavirus and its impact on the global economy. Meanwhile, the Fed, several hours later, cut rates by 50 basis points.

But Equity markets (and thus the DAX) only saw a short term upward squeeze, which sold off sharply as 10-year US Treasury yields dropped significantly below 1.00% over the last days.

In fact, market participants now expect the Fed to cut rates by another 50 basis points at their meeting next Wednesday, and the ECB is also expected to be extremely dovish next Thursday by cutting rates by a minimum of 10 basis points into negative territory.

But with Equities failing to gain bullish momentum in regards to liquidity, the advantage stays clearly on the downside, with the focus in the DAX30 CFD on the region around 10,600 points.

On the upside, only recapturing 12,200/230 points would, at least in the short-term, brighten the technical picture:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between February 19, 2020, to March 6, 2020). Accessed: March 6, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between November 22, 2018, to March 6, 2020). Accessed: March 6, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
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By Admiral Markets

By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By Orbex

EURUSD Gains Look to Be Overdone

The euro retreats after testing a session high of 1.1354 on Friday, marking a rally to a one-year high. Prices are consolidating near the 1.1300 region at the moment. A close below this level could signal a move back to the 1.1200 handle. This will mark a confluence of the secondary trend line and the horizontal support.

Can WTI Crude Oil Find a Bottom?

WTI crude oil prices fell over 9% on Friday as price touched a three-year low of 41.06. This coincides with a multi-year support level at 41.50. If this level holds, we could see some consolidation taking place. This consolidation will most likely remain within the 41.50 and 46.50 levels. Watch for any initial signs of higher low forming which could signal a rebound.

GBPUSD Shifts Direction as Further Upside Likely

The pound sterling broke out sharply to the upside to pare losses from earlier sessions. After recovering above 1.2858, cable surged sharply higher above 1.2960. With the current momentum, we expect GBPUSD to rally to the unfilled gap from Jan 31^st at the 1.3200 region. Any near term retracements could bring in new buyers, keeping the currency supported to the upside.

XAUUSD Slips After Failing to Break Past Previous Highs

The precious metal eased back after failing to keep up the momentum. The failure to break out past the Feb 24 highs at 1689 puts the commodity at risk of a pullback. Initial support at 1655 was already tested and could be at risk of failing to stall the declines. However, given the current volatility, it would be best to wait and watch how the current momentum unfolds.

By Orbex

By IFCMarkets

US stock market ended lower on Friday amid reports US coronavirus cases increased. All three US benchmarks however managed to record a weekly gain. The S&P 500 lost 1.7% to 2972.37, booking a 0.6% gain for the week. Dow Jones industrial retreated 1.0% to 25864.78. The Nasdaq ended 1.9% lower at 8575.62. The dollar weakening continued despite a better-than-expected jobs report from the Labor Department showing the US created 273,000 new jobs in February. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, fell 0.6% to 96.02 and is sharply lower currently. Futures on stock indexes point to lower openings today.

European stocks ended sharply lower on Friday. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD cotninued climbing on Friday with both pairs sharply higher currently. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 3.6%. The DAX 30 dropped 3.4% to 11541.87 Friday. France’s CAC 40 plunged 4.1% and UK’s FTSE 100 slumped 3.6% to 6580.61.

Asian stock indices are sharply lower today. Nikkei sank 5.4% to 19632.5 as yen accelerated its climbing against the dollar despite a downward revision of Q4 GDP in final reading. China’s markets are falling : the Shanghai Composite Index is down 3% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is 4.6% lower. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index plummeted 7.3% despite reversal in Australian dollar’s climb against the greenback.

Brent futures prices are in retreat after a more than 25% plunge this morning following weekend reports Saudi Arabia planned to boost crude-oil production to between 10 million and 11 million barrels per day. Prices fell on Friday as OPEC meeting ended in disarray following Russia’s rejection of a plan for additional output cuts: Brent for May settlement dropped 9.4% to $45.7 a barrel Friday, plunging 8.9% for the week.

Gold prices are extending gains today. Gold for April delivery added 0.3% to $1672.40 on Friday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com