InvestMacro

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.08804
• Open: 1.08823
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05
• Day’s range: 1.08776 – 1.09179
• 52 wk range: 1.0879 – 1.1572

The EUR continued its growth against the greenback. The EUR/USD quotes updated the local highs again. At the moment the trading instrument is testing resistance at 1.09150. The mark 1.08850 is already a mirror support. The Euro has a potential for further strengthening. Investors are closely monitoring the situation with the coronavirus COVID-19 spreading outside China. Today, participants of financial markets will assess important economic releases from the USA. Positions need to be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2020:

• – Report on orders for durable goods (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – GDP report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
• – Pending home sales report (US) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

The indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

MACD histogram is in the positive zone and above the signal line, which gives a strong signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.08850, 1.08600, 1.08300
• Resistance levels: 1.09150, 1.09500

If the price fixes above 1.09150, expect further growth of EUR/USD toward 1.09500-1.09700.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.08600-1.08400.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.30053
• Open: 1.28956
• % chg. over the last day: -0.77
• Day’s range: 1.28949 – 1.29379
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3516

The GBP/USD currency pair has gone down. Yesterday the drop in quotes exceeded 100 points. GBP reached the round level of 1.29000. The local resistance is at the level of 1.29400. The technical pattern signals a further decrease in the trading instrument. Today the statistical data on the US economy is in the spotlight. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2020 is calm.

The indicators signal the sellers’ strength: the price has fixed below 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the overbought zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.29000, 1.28500
• Resistance levels: 1.29400, 1.29750, 1.30150

If the price fixes above resistance level 1.29400, correction of GBP/USD quotes is expected to 1.30000.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.28700-1.28400.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32787
• Open: 1.33292
• % chg. over the last day: +0.49
• Day’s range: 1.33247 – 1.33475
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.3566

The USD/CAD currency pair has moved up again. During yesterday’s and today’s trades the growth of quotations exceeded 60 points. The trading instrument has set new local highs. The CAD found resistance at 1.33450. The mark 1.33100 is already a mirror support. The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure from the negative dynamics of oil prices. The USD/CAD quotes can grow further. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2020 is calm.

The indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which indicates a bullish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a sell signal for USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.33100, 1.32700, 1.32450
• Resistance levels: 1.33450, 1.33800

If the price fixes above 1.33450, expect further growth of USD/CAD quotes ito 1.33800-1.34000.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.32800-1.32600.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 110.196
• Open: 110.401
• % chg. over the last day: +0.49
• Day’s range: 109.967 – 110.457
• 52 wk range: 104.45 – 113.53

USD/JPY stabilized after a prolonged decline. At the moment the trading instrument is in sideways movement. USD/JPY quotes are testing the round level of 110.000. The mark 110.500 is the nearest resistance. Demand for safe haven currencies is still at a high enough level. Investors estimate the risks of further coronavirus spreading from China. Today, we recommend that you pay attention to the economic reports, as well as the dynamics of yield on U.S. government securities. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 27.02.2020 is calm.

The indicators signal the sellers’ strength: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which gives a sell signal for USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator started to exit the oversold zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a correction of the USD/JPY currency pair.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.000, 109.650
• Resistance levels: 110.500, 110.700, 111.100

If the price fixes below the round 110.000, expect the quotes to fall 1.09700-1.09400.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 110.800-111.100.

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders – Our research team wanted to share this chart with our friends and followers.  This dramatic breakdown in price over the past 4+ days has resulted in a very clear bearish trigger which was confirmed by our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We believe this downside move will target the $251 level on the SPY over the next few weeks and months.

Some recent headline articles worth reading:

On January 23, 2020, we issued a warning that the Put/Call ratio was warning of a potential Flash Crash

On January 24, 2020, we issued a research post related to the Wuhan Wipeout the markets

On January 26, 2020, we issued this research post about the start of a Black Swan event

On January 29, 2020, we issued this research post about a potential WaterFall selloff

Clearly, we were well ahead of this correction and issued multiple warnings to our friends and followers. This week we locked in 9.48% on GDXJ at the open on Monday, and today we are writing to suggest that $251 on the SPY is real support (see the magenta/purple area/line on this chart) and pay attention to the real risks at play in the markets.

This would suggest that the major markets will wipe out about 25% of the valuations in the major averages (ES, NQ, and YM), before finding any real support.  Obviously, there is a level near $208 that appears in RED on this chart.  If $251 fails to hold as support, then we immediately start to look at that $208 level for ultimate support.

This is the time when you want skilled researchers and traders backing you up and sourcing real solid trade opportunities for you.  We’ve been warning about this move for many months, suggesting that 2020 was going to be an incredible year for skilled traders and warning that a large downside price rotation was likely after August 2019.

In fact, one of our researchers predicted this move back in February/March 2019.  Visit TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these massive trends and find real opportunities in the markets.

Make sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter before closing this page so you don’t miss our next special report!

Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

By George Prior

Coronavirus and heightening geopolitical and trade tensions can be expected to drive the world to the brink of a global recession this year. Investors must take action sooner rather than later to build and safeguard their wealth.

The stark warning from Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial services and advisory organizations, comes as Asian-Pacific, European stocks and U.S. futures fell on Wednesday as the global market sell-off triggered by concerns over the impact of the coronavirus outbreak grew.

Mr Green says: “Investors have largely been caught off-guard by the serious and far-reaching economic consequence of the coronavirus.

“This, despite major multinational organisations already lowering their profit guidances, and many more likely to do so in coming weeks. Clearly, this will hit global supply chains, economies across the world and ultimately government coffers too.

“However, it does seem that this week the world is waking up to the reality of the situation as the containment of coronavirus hasn’t yet materialised and confirmed cases soar in different countries.

“Until such time as governments pump liquidity into the markets and coronavirus cases peak, markets will be jittery triggering sell-offs.”

Earlier this week, Nigel Green noted: “In addition, coronavirus has struck at a time when major economies, including Japan, Germany, India and Hong Kong are already facing a serious downturn.”

He continues: “It doesn’t end there. Investors also need to consider the impact of the U.S. presidential election, the tensions between Iran and the U.S. and how oil prices will be hit if these intensify, and perhaps most significantly there’s the simmering trade war between the U.S. and China – the world’s two largest economies.

“China’s current economic slowdown will reduce the country’s ability to buy $200bn more U.S. goods, as promised in the Phase One trade deal. And that was the ‘easy’ bit.

“Phase Two is more about the U.S. trying to limit China’s tech ambitions and it has been reported that Beijing is unwilling to negotiate on many of these issues, and instead would play for time.”

The deVere CEO goes on to add: “The combination of these headwinds is likely to dampen business confidence and investment, profits, and consumer demand throughout the rest of this year.

“Together they could push the world to the brink of a global recession this year. This would be severe because central banks are running out of weapons to see off the threats.”

Mr Green concludes: “Whilst I am confident that we’ll narrowly avoid a global recession in 2020, no-one can accurately predict the future – as we have seen with coronavirus, which markets wrongly assumed would be limited to mainly China.

“Therefore, in the current volatile environment, investors – including myself – will be revising their portfolios and drip-feeding new money into the market to take advantage of the opportunities whilst reducing risk at the same time.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the convergence made GBPUSD reverse after falling and reaching 50.0%, and rebound towards 38.2% fibo. However, this growth shouldn’t be considered as reverse as long as the price is moving below the resistance at 23.6% fibo (1.3203). At the same time, one can’t exclude a possibility of a new decline towards 61.8% fibo at 1.2700.

The H1 chart shows a rising pullback after the downtrend, which has already reached 23.6% fibo and may continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.3103 and 1.3182 respectively. If the price breaks the support (the low at 1.2848), the mid-term descending tendency will continue.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after the pair had corrected to the downside by 61.8%, there was a convergence that made EURJPY start a new rising impulse, which has already risen towards 61.8% fibo. The current short-term decline may be considered as a pullback before a new ascending impulse; the upside targets may be 76.0% fibo at 121.81 and the high at 122.87. Later, the market may break the high and continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 124.55 and 125.57 respectively.

The H1 chart shows a new correction to the downside, which has already reached 61.8% fibo and may yet continue towards 76.0% fibo at 119.17. Anyway, after the pullback is over, the instrument is expected to resume growing to reach the local high at 121.40.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After updating the high at 1.0888, EURUSD is falling towards 1.0856. Possibly, the pair may reach this level and then start another correction towards 1.0872. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 1.0840.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has completed the ascending correction; right now, it is forming a new descending structure towards 1.2970. After that, the instrument may start another growth to reach 1.2993 and then trading downwards with the first target at 1.2929.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After finishing the descending structure at 0.9750, USDCHF is trading upwards to reach 0.9799. Later, the market may start a new decline towards 0.9777 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9815.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is growing towards 111.10. The main scenario implies that the price may reach this level and then resume falling towards 110.60. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure with the target at 111.75.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.6602 without any particular direction. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start a new correction towards 0.6666; if to the downside – resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 0.6540.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After completing the descending impulse towards 64.74, USDRUB has returned to 65.57; right now, it is consolidating around 65.25. Possibly, the pair may expand the range up to 65.85 and then start a new decline towards 64.40. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 66.16.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is consolidating around 1.3288. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start a new growth towards 1.3344; if to the downside – continue the correction with the target at 1.3165.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has broken 1641.00 to the downside. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1623.50 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1656.40. Later, the market may start a new decline with the target at 1609.70.

BRENT

Brent is moving downwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 54.04 and then start another growth towards 55.22. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach 53.68 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 57.11.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is falling towards 8900.00. Later, the market may start another growth to reach 9600.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 8600.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The US dollar has been declining against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday in the red zone (-0.39%). New cases of coronavirus have become known. On Wednesday, Asia reported hundreds of new cases of coronavirus infection, including the first infected US military. The US is worried that such a spread of coronavirus will soon lead to a pandemic.

Meanwhile, the United States is pleased with the measures taken by China as part of the first phase of their trade agreement. According to the agreement, China should increase its purchases of US agricultural products by $200 billion over 2 years compared to the level of 2017. At the same time, in the statement by US officials, it does not mention that the Chinese economy is currently experiencing difficulties due to the coronavirus.

The “black gold” prices have continued to decline. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $49.40 mark per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+2:00), crude oil inventories will be published.

Market indicators

Yesterday, there were aggressive sales in the US stock market: #SPY (-3.03%), #DIA (-3.17%), #QQQ (-2.72%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has not changed. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.35-1.36%.

• – New home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+2:00).

by JustForex

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.08521
• Open: 1.08804
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23
• Day’s range: 1.08624 – 1.08827
• 52 wk range: 1.0879 – 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair is dominated by bullish moods. The trading instrument has renewed its local highs. The USA has published weak data on consumer confidence. Investors are concerned about the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus outside China, which may lead to a serious decline in the global economy. At the moment, the trading instrument is consolidating in the range of 1.08600-1.08900. We expect economic reports from the USA. Positions should be opened from key levels. We also recommend you to pay attention to the speeches of ECB head and FOMC representatives.

The Economic News Feed for 26.02.2020:

• – At 17:00 (GMT+2:00) the US will published a report on new home sales;

The indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates a bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.08600, 1.08300, 1.08150
• Resistance levels: 1.08900, 1.09250

If the price fixes above 1.08900, expect quotes to rise toward 1.09200-1.09400.

Alternatively, the quotes will descend toward 1.08300-1.08100.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.29301
• Open: 1.30053
• % chg. over the last day: +0.57
• Day’s range: 1.29765 – 1.30080
• 52 wk range: 1.1959 – 1.3516

GBP/USD quotes have moved up. In the course of yesterday’s trading, GBP added more than 70 points in price against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD currency pair has set new local highs. At the moment the following key support and resistance levels can be identified at 1.29700 and 1.30150, respectively. The trading instrument has potential for further recovery. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.02.2020 is calm.

The indicators signal the strength of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.29700, 1.29400, 1.29000
• Resistance levels: 1.30150, 1.30600

If the price fixes above the resistance level of 1.30150, further growth of GBP/USD quotes is expected to 1.30500-1.30800.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.29400-1.29100.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32925
• Open: 1.32787
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10
• Day’s range: 1.32740 – 1.32941
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.3566

USD/CAD currency pair is traded in flat. There is no defined trend. The CAD is testing local support and resistance levels: 1.32700 and 1.33050, respectively. The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure from aggressive sales in the oil market. USD/CAD quotes have the upside potential. We recommend you to pay attention to the economic reports from the USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.02.2020 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed 50 MA.

MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is located in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.32700, 1.32450, 1.32250
• Resistance levels: 1.33050, 1.33400

If the price fixes above 1.33050, further growth of USD/CAD quotes is expected to 1.33400-1.33600.

Alternatively, the quotes could descend toward 1.32500-1.32300.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 110.681
• Open: 110.196
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38
• Day’s range: 110.134 – 110.579
• 52 wk range: 104.45 – 113.53

The USD/JPY currency pair continues to show negative dynamics. The trading instrument has updated the local lows again. The demand for safe haven currencies remains at a high level. Investors assess the risks of further coronavirus spreading from China. At the moment USD/JPY quotes are consolidating in the range of 110.000-110.600. The yen has a potential for further growth against greenback. We recommend you to pay attention to the dynamics of the US government securities yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 26.02.2020 is calm.

The indicators signal the sellers’ strength: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/JPY.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which also indicates a bearish mood.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 110.000, 109.650
• Resistance levels: 110.600, 111.100, 111.600

If the price fixes below the round 110.000 level, USD/JPY quotes are expected to fall further to 109.700-109.400.

Alternatively, the quotes could grow toward 111.00-111.300.

by JustForex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events February 26, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

Driven by the latest economic developments in the US, as 30-year U.S. yields drop to record lows after the IHS Markit Flash Composite PMI last Friday came in at its lowest level since 2013, 10-year US yields breaking below 1.50%, and renewed fears around the Coronavirus, Gold went vertical and is trading at its highest levels since 2013.

While the technical mode looks very extended on the upside, and risk-reward ratios become more and more unattractive, we shouldn’t forget that yield sensitive assets like the precious metal have a high level of trend stability.

That said, a direct break above 1,700 USD, especially if US economic data from the Housing markets disappoints, remains an option even though the dynamic of the move should be lower.

The reason for this being, that market participants now expect, with a likelihood of 75%, the Fed to cut rates twice or by 50 basis points in 2020, and already see three 25 basis points cut with a likelihood of around 40% (according to the Fed Watch Tool).

With that in mind, disappointing US data and a foreseeable US economic downturn is already priced in, and could at least result in Gold consolidating, even though at an elevated level.

Technically, if we get to see a correction, a potential long trigger can be found around 1,600/620 USD, with the daily trend support to be found around 1,535/545 USD and Gold staying bullish on a daily time-frame above that level.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between November 23, 2018, to February 25, 2020). Accessed: February 25, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.

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Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter “Author”) based on the Author’s personal estimations.
4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
9. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.

By Admiral Markets

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com

By OilPrice.com – You know that the oil markets have truly gone to the dogs when they are suddenly riskier than one of the world’s most volatile commodities: bitcoin.

Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are synonymous with extreme bouts of volatility. However, it’s crude oil that is now earning that dubious distinction after exhibiting price swings wilder than even the leading cryptocurrency.

On February 10, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil’s one-month realized, or historical, price volatility stood at 105.3%. In contrast, bitcoin’s historical volatility clocked in at 42.3%, its lowest reading since September, according to Skew Markets.

Historical volatility is a measure of how much commodity prices have varied in the past calculated as the standard deviation of daily price movements of the front month futures price, typically for a 30-day period. The metric is expressed as a percentage in annualized terms.

Rising Volatility

A commodity’s historical volatility, however, does not tell us anything about the direction of the price movement; rather, it tells us the degree to which a security’s price movement is deviating from the average.

It would, therefore, not be a stretch to say that crude oil’s volatility has lately exceeded that of bitcoin.

During the period under review, WTI’s historical volatility shot up from 38.7% to 119.6% by late January while S&P 500 Index‘s realized volatility increased to 15.6% during the last week of January.

In contrast, BTC’s volatility retreated from 66% to 42%–hardly surprising given that BTC tends to benefit from flight to safety trades.

That said, don’t rush to dump your gold holdings to buy some BTC just yet.

Despite its falling volatility, bitcoin remains considerably more volatile than gold, one of the commodities that has traditionally been regarded as leading safe haven assets.

Gold’s historical volatility doubled during the early part of January to 18% before sliding back to 10% during early February. In other words, gold at its most volatile has still been considerably less so than bitcoin, which proves the most popular crypto still has some way to go before claiming the safe haven mantle from the yellow metal.

Indeed, bitcoin has failed to play that role to a satisfactory degree during the latest market selloff. BTC was down nearly 5% on Monday’s stock market rout on a day the S&P 500 fell 3.5%, the biggest one-day loss by the broad-market index since August 2019. That drop was not an aberration for BTC, either, which has suffered intraday declines of more than 3% seven times so far in the first two months of the year alone.

For perspective, gold bullion was down 1.5% to about $1,650/oz though still 5.1% up over the past 30 days.

Coronavirus Mayhem

And you might have guessed right by now: the coronavirus mayhem is largely to blame for crude oil’s sharp spike in volatility.

The viral outbreak has thrown a monkey wrench into financial markets across the globe, with the crude oil market frequently finding itself whipsawed by the turn of events.

The January rally that saw oil WTI prices shoot up nearly 10% in a matter of days was triggered after Washington launched a retaliatory attack on an Iranian military base in Iraq, killing a top military commander and injecting considerable geopolitical uncertainty into the markets. Unfortunately, the rally was only to be short-lived, cut off by the first news of the coronavirus outbreak in China.

The oil market is officially now in bear territory after posting the worst day in more than a month on Monday on heightened coronavirus fears.

U.S. WTI crude dipped more than 5% at the session low to settle at $50.45 with investors worried that a subsequent slowdown in the global economy could further dent the already weakened demand for crude.

Prices, however, managed to slightly recover from the lows to settle at $51.43 per barrel–still bad enough for its worst day since Jan. 8–after Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser reportedly said that the coronavirus impact will be “short term”. Nasser said that Aramco has not evacuated its staff from China.

Right now, there’s plenty of uncertainty in the oil markets with very little clarity regarding if and when the outbreak will be brought under full control.

While the Aramco chiefs expect the situation to have normalized during the second part of the year, others contend that the situation remains tenuous and the outbreak could rebound when Chinese residents return to work and school.

Monday’s heavy selloff suggests that the bears are the ones holding sway right now, while trading in oil has suddenly become a (fabulous, for some) game of volatility that makes it as exciting as crypto.

Link to original article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Is-Now-More-Volatile-Than-Bitcoin.html

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com