InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar net speculator positions fell to just $62.5 million last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their bullish bets for the US dollar last week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $62.5 million as of Tuesday July 11th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-72.5 million from the $135 million total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The US dollar bullish position has fallen for three straight weeks and is now at the lowest level since the last time the total position was negative ($-4.19 billion) on May 17th 2016.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currency contract levels had some major movements this week with three major currencies seeing weekly changes above the 10,000 contract mark.

• Mexican peso bets rose by +13,000 contracts this week to a net position of 97,859 contracts. This is the highest net standing since May 28th of 2013 when positions totaled +120,864 contracts.
• Canadian dollar positions jumped by over +30,000 contracts and rose for a seventh straight week to a best spec level since March 14th.
• Japanese yen positions, meanwhile, dropped sharply by over -30,000 contracts and fell for a third straight week to a net position of -112,125 contracts. This is the most bearish yen level since June 9th 2015 when positions totaled -116,286 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (6,324 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (3,629 contracts), Swiss franc (321 contracts), Canadian dollar (30,768 contracts), Australian dollar (4,392 contracts), New Zealand dollar (2,772 contracts) and the Mexican peso (13,000 contracts).

The currency whose speculative bets fell last week versus the dollar was just the Japanese yen (-37,089 weekly change in contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators lifted their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 358,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 11th. This was a weekly gain of 16,978 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 341,047 net contracts.

WTI speculative positions have now increased for two straight weeks (after falling the previous three weeks in a row) and total net positions are back above the +350,000 contract threshold for the first time since June 13th.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -361,371 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -23,225 contracts from the total net of -338,146 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $9.27 which was a drop of $-0.35 from the previous close of $9.62, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators decreased their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 257,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 11th. This was a weekly fall of -5,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 262,962 net contracts.

The 10-Year Note speculators have now reduced their positions for a third consecutive week although speculative positions remain very bullish with a total net position above the +250,000 threshold for a fifth straight week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -63,836 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 37,761 contracts from the total net of -101,597 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $106.05 which was a loss of $-0.01 from the previous close of $106.06, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators sharply cut back on their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week for a fifth consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 60,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 11th. This was a weekly reduction of -33,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,799 net contracts.

Gold speculators have now decreased their bullish net positions by a whopping -144,205 over the past five weeks. The current level is at the lowest point for net positions since January 26th of 2016 when the positions totaled +59,040 contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

Meanwhile, the commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -73,916 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 33,310 contracts from the total net of -107,226 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $115.62 which was a loss of $-0.47 from the previous close of $116.09, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators continued to lift their net positions in the S&P500 futures markets higher this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 2,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 11th. This was a weekly gain of 348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,279 net contracts.

Large S&P500 speculators have now boosted their positions in each of the past six weeks to the highest level since April 25th when spec net positions totaled +4,238 contracts.

S&P500 Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -14,956 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -3,154 contracts from the total net of -11,802 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $242.19 which was a drop of $-0.02 from the previous close of $242.21, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators once again sharply reduced their net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 14,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 11th. This was a weekly lowering of -12,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,275 net contracts.

Speculative positions in silver futures have now fallen for five weeks in a row and by over at least -9,000 contracts in each of the past four weeks. The current standing is the lowest level in net positions for silver since August 4th 2015 when net positions totaled +8,405 contracts.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -24,567 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 14,661 contracts from the total net of -39,228 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $14.99 which was a decrease of $-0.31 from the previous close of $15.30, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators decreased their net positions in the Copper futures markets this week following two weeks of gains, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 12,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 11th. This was a weekly reduction of -4,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,345 net contracts.

Copper speculative positions, despite this week’s dip, remain above the +10,000 contract level for a sixth straight week after falling below that level on May 30th.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -14,901 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 2,620 contracts from the total net of -17,521 contracts reported the previous week.

JJC ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the JJC iPath Bloomber Copper ETN, which tracks the price of copper, closed at approximately $30.295 which was a shortfall of $-0.255 from the previous close of $30.55, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7757; it is still moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen close to 0.7695 and then continue moving upwards above 0.7840. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7620. In this case, the instrument may continue falling towards 0.7545.

NZD/USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.7325; it is still moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. We should expect the price to test the broken border of the cloud at 0.7295 and then continue moving upwards to reach 0.7370. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.7270. In this case, the instrument may continue falling towards 0.7180 and lower.

USD/CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2730; it is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2795 and then continue moving downwards to reach 1.2560. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 1.2960. In this case, the instrument may continue growing towards 1.3120 and higher.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

At the H4 chart of USD JPY, the price formed several Shooting Star patterns during the correction, which means that the correction completed and the price may continue falling towards the support level at 112.55.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart of XAU USD, Inverted Hammer, Long-Legged Doji, and Engulfing patterns indicate that the current descending tendency may reverse. While making a reverse, the price may form Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. The upside target is the resistance level at 1241.50.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari